ESPN analysis of Contreras trade

[imetsatchelpaige]

I has posted the brutal closing comment in another thread, but thought I would post the full piece for posterity.
This is from Schoenfield.

Cardinals grade: B

Contreras didn't have much excess value beyond the $42.5 million he's owed the next two seasons, so while this return won't exactly pump up Cardinals fans, Dobbins at least has some utility as a back-end starter -- and he comes with six more seasons of team control. In other words, the Cardinals are dumping a potential declining veteran for a pitcher who might be in their rotation for years to come. That can be a win even if Dobbins never develops beyond a fourth starter.

That's probably his upside after posting a 4.13 ERA in 11 starts as a rookie, throwing strikes (2.5 walks per nine innings) but not whiffing enough batters (6.6 strikeouts per nine). Still, as an eighth-round pick out of Texas Tech in 2021, he was a development success for the Red Sox. He does possess above-average velo on his fastball (95.5 mph), but it got hit hard with a .316 average. A splitter that he didn't throw a whole lot showed some promise and maybe becomes his best secondary pitch, while a slow sweeper (81.2 mph) was more effective than his slider that he throws much harder (87.6). Throw in a curveball and it's an interesting mix of pitches, but unless he generates more swing-and-miss on his fastball, the ceiling is limited.

Fajardo is the more interesting of the two minor leaguers. He received the highest bonus among Venezuelan pitchers in 2024, signed by the White Sox, and then acquired by Boston for Cam Booser. Just 19, he pitched well in Single-A with a 2.98 ERA in 13 starts, so he's a nice throw-in in a trade like this.

The Cardinals will now be paying the Red Sox $24 million in 2026 for Sonny Gray and Contreras. It's never fun to pay another team's players, but the Cardinals have decided to punt on 2026, with Brendan Donovan probably next to go. In the end, they've trimmed payroll, added some young depth and will field one of the least interesting teams in the majors. -- Schoenfield

[CCard]

Get ready for the losing. It's coming.

[Ozziesfan41]

It will be a lot more interesting to watch than the past three years

[C-Unit]

Well, last year we had the least interesting offseason. Which one would you rather have. At least we have a direction now.

[hugeCardfan]

I wonder who knows more about the arms we got. Schoenfield or Bloom?

[imetsatchelpaige]

Get ready for the losing. It's coming.

Such a grim fellow...

Of course it's coming.
But so is the future.

"In the garden, growth has its seasons. First comes spring and summer, but then we have fall and winter. And then we get spring and summer again. As long as the roots are not severed, all is well." and

"I like to watch, Eve."

Peter Sellers as Chauncy Gardiner
Being There

[Mort Gage]

I find young and bad but with the potential to improve much more interesting than older and mediocre with a ceiling of .500.

[imetsatchelpaige]

I find young and bad but with the potential to improve much more interesting than older and mediocre with a ceiling of .500.

AMEN

[ecleme22]

What does he mean by interesting??

Is he implying that as a sports journalist the Cardinals aren’t that sexy to write about right now? That’s fair..

Fortunately, Bloom doesn’t give a [shirt] about that

[rockondlouie]

RJ Anderson at cbssportsline

Cardinals grade: A

If nothing else, you have to credit the Cardinals for paying down Contreras' salary to get a better return. They did the same in the Gray deal (a move that also received an "A" grade). In total, the Cardinals will have spent $28 million to ensure that the Red Sox could take both players on. Expect St. Louis to throw around more coin to facilitate a potential Nolan Arenado trade later this winter.

Dobbins, 26, appeared 13 times and compiled a 4.13 ERA (100 ERA+) and a 2.65 strikeout-to-walk ratio before tearing his ACL in July. He's a supinator who threw five pitches at least 9% of the time last season, including three different breaking balls: a shorter slider, longer sweeper, and a curveball that generated his highest whiff rate. Dobbins' mid-90s fastball featured far more cutting action than expected, though the pitch-quality algorithms consider it to be a below-average offering anyway. (It's hard to argue based on results, seeing as how opponents hit .316 and slugged .453 versus it.)

When Dobbins returns to the fold, he could figure into the back of the Cardinals' rotation. Remember, St. Louis has already added two other prospective starters this winter: free-agent signing Dustin May and right-hander Richard Fitts, who came over as part of the aforementioned Gray trade.


Hunter Dobbins
BOS • P • #73
ERA
4.13
WHIP
1.28
IP
61
BB
17
K
45

Fajardo, 19, was acquired last winter from the Chicago White Sox in exchange for lefty Cam Booser. He's a tall right-hander who spent most of last season in the Carolina League, tallying a 2.98 ERA and a 2.95 strikeout-to-walk ratio. Fajardo is, predictably, given his youth, a work in progress. His arsenal includes a pair of fastballs that can get into the mid-to-upper 90s, as well as a quality breaking ball. He's thrown strikes and coerced a high rate of ground balls thus far, and there's a clear pathway for him to become a big-league starter in due time. Stay tuned.

Aita, 22, was a sixth-round pick in the 2024 Draft. He made 23 appearances across Low- and High-A, scoring a 3.98 ERA and a 3.30 strikeout-to-walk ratio. Aita features a flatter plane to the plate and a tremendous feel for spin that manifests in (among other pitches) a quality slider. He's a candidate to take a step forward with the right player development support, making him another possible big-league contributor -- maybe even in a starting role if everything goes well.

It's not the flashiest set of names, but top executive Chaim Bloom has successfully added three interesting arms who could log starts and/or innings over the years to come.

That's a nice piece of business considering how most front offices these tend to regard the value of non-elite right-right first basemen in their mid 30s.

[rockondlouie]

Fanside

Cardinals trade grade: B+


Hunter Dobbins

Bloom inherited a St. Louis organization very short on foundational pitching for the future. Dobbins isn't going to become an ace, but he's something to build on, someone who still figures to be in his prime and under contract when top prospects like Liam Doyle, Quinn Mathews and maybe even former Red Sox prospect Brandon Clarke make it to the Majors. Add in Fajardo, one of the faster risers of any pitchers in the Minors right now, and that's two meaningful pieces for two years of an aging and expensive player who doesn't play a premium position.

That's good business, and the sort of move that represents good process as the Cardinals look to tear things down to the studs and begin again

[imetsatchelpaige]

It's not the flashiest set of names, but top executive Chaim Bloom has successfully added three interesting arms who could log starts and/or innings over the years to come.

Nice! Thanks for sharing that, Rock.
I agree.... I see a bright future with Bloom at the helm.

[ClassicO]

There are about five more grades for this trade by pundits, most of whom never played the game or were scouts.
Nonetheless I haven’t seen any that gave Boston a higher grade.

[rockondlouie]

It's not the flashiest set of names, but top executive Chaim Bloom has successfully added three interesting arms who could log starts and/or innings over the years to come.

Nice! Thanks for sharing that, Rock.
I agree.... I see a bright future with Bloom at the helm.

Welcome buddy

I like all the deals so far too.

The Man has a plan and he's executing it w/more (Donny....JoJo....NADO) to come.

His job is to reverse this:

2023
71 - 91

2024
83 - 79

2025
78 - 84

[Bomber1]

Why would ANY baseball fan give a rip about what ESPN has to say?

They’re so great at baseball they don’t even broadcast games anymore.

Their commentary about the Cardinals prior to 2023 was that Paul DeJong “still provides middle of the order power”.

Stick to the NBA ESPN, leave the baseball commentary to those who actually know baseball.

[Horseradish]

Get ready for the losing. It's coming.

It was already here, where have you been for the last two years?