Two huge factors in the Cardinals being better in '26

[hugeCardfan]

I see a different two factors. Fedde and Mikolas (and even Pallante). We're a bit unsettled right now, so we'll see how things come together, but how much of a stretch is it to gain 10-15 games through those rotation spots?

At least 10.

Mikolas and Fedde were both replacement level pitchers last year (0.3 and 0.0 fWAR, respectively). Please tell us what two starting pitchers the Cardinals realistically can add who will contribute “at least 10” fWAR in 2026. Be specific.

I'd like an increase of 1 WAR from 6 position players and 4 WAR from pitching. Say 2 WAR from May, 1 WAR from Fitts and 1 WAR from Liberatore.

Unfortunately, those hypothetical increases in pitching fWAR would just barely offset what they lost with Gray.

You asked for specificity where we might get 10 WAR. Not predicting a division winner here, just looking for a life preserver until the team is ready to compete.

[earp]

2 things:
1. Better Hitting
2. Better Pitching

[Talkin' Baseball]

I see a different two factors. Fedde and Mikolas (and even Pallante). We're a bit unsettled right now, so we'll see how things come together, but how much of a stretch is it to gain 10-15 games through those rotation spots?

At least 10.

Mikolas and Fedde were both replacement level pitchers last year (0.3 and 0.0 fWAR, respectively). Please tell us what two starting pitchers the Cardinals realistically can add who will contribute “at least 10” fWAR in 2026. Be specific.

I'd like an increase of 1 WAR from 6 position players and 4 WAR from pitching. Say 2 WAR from May, 1 WAR from Fitts and 1 WAR from Liberatore.

Unfortunately, those hypothetical increases in pitching fWAR would just barely offset what they lost with Gray.

You asked for specificity where we might get 10 WAR. Not predicting a division winner here, just looking for a life preserver until the team is ready to compete.

To be clear, I wasn't trying to say the Cardinals will be 10 games better in 2026. They won't. I'm saying those 3 spots in the rotation cost us that many wins, and improvement in those spots would be the most dynamic upgrades you could make to the team. I saw the comment about Fedde and Mikolas being league average. You guys were here and saw the games. Is that what you saw?

[NYCardsFan]

I see a different two factors. Fedde and Mikolas (and even Pallante). We're a bit unsettled right now, so we'll see how things come together, but how much of a stretch is it to gain 10-15 games through those rotation spots?

At least 10.

Mikolas and Fedde were both replacement level pitchers last year (0.3 and 0.0 fWAR, respectively). Please tell us what two starting pitchers the Cardinals realistically can add who will contribute “at least 10” fWAR in 2026. Be specific.

I'd like an increase of 1 WAR from 6 position players and 4 WAR from pitching. Say 2 WAR from May, 1 WAR from Fitts and 1 WAR from Liberatore.

Unfortunately, those hypothetical increases in pitching fWAR would just barely offset what they lost with Gray.

You asked for specificity where we might get 10 WAR. Not predicting a division winner here, just looking for a life preserver until the team is ready to compete.

To be clear, I wasn't trying to say the Cardinals will be 10 games better in 2026. They won't. I'm saying those 3 spots in the rotation cost us that many wins, and improvement in those spots would be the most dynamic upgrades you could make to the team. I saw the comment about Fedde and Mikolas being league average. You guys were here and saw the games. Is that what you saw?

I didn't say Mikolas and Fedde were "league average," I said they were replacement level (0.3 fWAR and 0.0 fWAR, respectively). Hence the math that two unnamed SP replacements would have to post roughly 10 fWAR cobined for the Cardinals to be "at least 10" (another poster's quote) games better Y/Y based on that isolated change alone.

[Talkin' Baseball]

I see a different two factors. Fedde and Mikolas (and even Pallante). We're a bit unsettled right now, so we'll see how things come together, but how much of a stretch is it to gain 10-15 games through those rotation spots?

At least 10.

Mikolas and Fedde were both replacement level pitchers last year (0.3 and 0.0 fWAR, respectively). Please tell us what two starting pitchers the Cardinals realistically can add who will contribute “at least 10” fWAR in 2026. Be specific.

I'd like an increase of 1 WAR from 6 position players and 4 WAR from pitching. Say 2 WAR from May, 1 WAR from Fitts and 1 WAR from Liberatore.

Unfortunately, those hypothetical increases in pitching fWAR would just barely offset what they lost with Gray.

You asked for specificity where we might get 10 WAR. Not predicting a division winner here, just looking for a life preserver until the team is ready to compete.

To be clear, I wasn't trying to say the Cardinals will be 10 games better in 2026. They won't. I'm saying those 3 spots in the rotation cost us that many wins, and improvement in those spots would be the most dynamic upgrades you could make to the team. I saw the comment about Fedde and Mikolas being league average. You guys were here and saw the games. Is that what you saw?

I didn't say they were "league average," I said they were replacement level.

Fair enough. My point is that these were not surprises. It was poor roster construction and now they have a chance to do better. Just about everyone knew the pitching wasn't sufficient going into the season. So far we can say the same for next season, but I will wait until they make whatever moves they will make before I think about that. It could be better, and if it is that will matter a lot.

[rockondlouie]

I've been saying this for some time, just had this conversation w/bully in another thread.

The 2026 Cardinals will be better than the 2025 team because...........

-M. Mikolas, E. Fredde are gone----that's an upgrade already!

-A. Pallante is headed back to the pen', another rotation upgrade

(It would be hard for any starter to be worse than those three were in 2025)

-JJW replaces Donny, could be an even better offensive player

-NADO's glove will be missed but N. Gorman should provide more offense

-WillyC would be the BIG MISS, but a full season of I. Hererra could easily replace his offense

And that doesn't even count the players who come back via the trades who may be MLB ready!

Plus C. Bloom could still add via FA too.

[Talkin' Baseball]

I've been saying this for some time, just had this conversation w/bully in another thread.

The 2026 Cardinals will be better than the 2025 team because...........

-M. Mikolas, E. Fredde are gone----that's an upgrade already!

-A. Pallante is headed back to the pen', another rotation upgrade

(It would be hard for any starter to be worse than those three were in 2025)

-JJW replaces Donny, could be an even better offensive player

-NADO's glove will be missed but N. Gorman should provide more offense

-WillyC would be the BIG MISS, but a full season of I. Hererra could easily replace his offense

And that doesn't even count the players who come back via the trades who may be MLB ready!

Plus C. Bloom could still add via FA too.

Agree with this in principle, but not completely. Nolan Gorman is coming up on his 5th major league season. He has never outproduced Arenado in a season yet- I wouldn't assume that he will this year. Are you suggesting that in addition to Herrera's 19 homers last season that he will "easily" also replace the 20 home runs Contreras hit? I wouldn't assume that either.

The subtractions from the rotation will be a big deal, there are some players who will show improvements, and as you say, there will be some new players we don't know anything about yet. We'll see who those are before I make predictions about who we could and couldn't be. The potential to be better isn't crazy talk though.

[hugeCardfan]

I've been saying this for some time, just had this conversation w/bully in another thread.

The 2026 Cardinals will be better than the 2025 team because...........

-M. Mikolas, E. Fredde are gone----that's an upgrade already!

-A. Pallante is headed back to the pen', another rotation upgrade

(It would be hard for any starter to be worse than those three were in 2025)

-JJW replaces Donny, could be an even better offensive player

-NADO's glove will be missed but N. Gorman should provide more offense

-WillyC would be the BIG MISS, but a full season of I. Hererra could easily replace his offense

And that doesn't even count the players who come back via the trades who may be MLB ready!

Plus C. Bloom could still add via FA too.

Yeah, I don't necessarily see JJW replacing Donny in 2026 but I see the basis for that replacement and, even, improvement. No argument on the rest of your comments. Would love to see Gorman's offense become a real positive. We'll see.

[Melville]

we will be lucky to win 70 games

STL won 78 last year - and Bloom is aiming for a ceiling of 85-86 wins in 2026.
Too soon the evaluate their chances since we don't know what the roster will look like.
But, Gorman will be an improvement over N/A by bringing badly needed power to the position - and there are reasonable expectations that Wetherholt will improve the team at 2B and leadoff.
Bloom still wants to add a starter to the rotation which has May, McGreevy, Liberatore already in place and a scrum competing for the last spot - which would have an even chance of being better than last year's group.
Burleson and Winn are both very solid - and we will see if Herrera's weird and flukish year was real or a suspicious mirage.
We don't yet know who is going to depart - but if Contreras returns it would certainly be beneficial.
Bottom line.
It is simply too soon to tell what this team will look like.

[Melville]

I've been saying this for some time, just had this conversation w/bully in another thread.

The 2026 Cardinals will be better than the 2025 team because...........

-M. Mikolas, E. Fredde are gone----that's an upgrade already!

-A. Pallante is headed back to the pen', another rotation upgrade

(It would be hard for any starter to be worse than those three were in 2025)

-JJW replaces Donny, could be an even better offensive player

-NADO's glove will be missed but N. Gorman should provide more offense

-WillyC would be the BIG MISS, but a full season of I. Hererra could easily replace his offense

And that doesn't even count the players who come back via the trades who may be MLB ready!

Plus C. Bloom could still add via FA too.

Too soon to say, but that is certainly a reasonable position.

[Cusecards]

I've been saying this for some time, just had this conversation w/bully in another thread.

The 2026 Cardinals will be better than the 2025 team because...........

-M. Mikolas, E. Fredde are gone----that's an upgrade already!

-A. Pallante is headed back to the pen', another rotation upgrade

(It would be hard for any starter to be worse than those three were in 2025)

-JJW replaces Donny, could be an even better offensive player

-NADO's glove will be missed but N. Gorman should provide more offense

-WillyC would be the BIG MISS, but a full season of I. Hererra could easily replace his offense

And that doesn't even count the players who come back via the trades who may be MLB ready!

Plus C. Bloom could still add via FA too.

I agree Rock that the 2026 team will have potentially more talent than the 2025 team due to youth.
Whether it translates to more wins is what we’ll find out.
I admit to being excited for this season mostly because of JJ and other prospects that are looming.
And Bloom is probably not done making moves.
If at least one of Walker/Gorman could emerge that would be huge!

[Shady]

I've been saying this for some time, just had this conversation w/bully in another thread.

The 2026 Cardinals will be better than the 2025 team because...........

-M. Mikolas, E. Fredde are gone----that's an upgrade already!

-A. Pallante is headed back to the pen', another rotation upgrade

(It would be hard for any starter to be worse than those three were in 2025)

-JJW replaces Donny, could be an even better offensive player

-NADO's glove will be missed but N. Gorman should provide more offense

-WillyC would be the BIG MISS, but a full season of I. Hererra could easily replace his offense

And that doesn't even count the players who come back via the trades who may be MLB ready!

Plus C. Bloom could still add via FA too.

I agree Rock that the 2026 team will have potentially more talent than the 2025 team due to youth.
Whether it translates to more wins is what we’ll find out.
I admit to being excited for this season mostly because of JJ and other prospects that are looming.
And Bloom is probably not done making moves.
If at least one of Walker/Gorman could emerge that would be huge!

And Saggese could emerge into a productive offense player similar to how Burleson has. Don't count it out. Saggese had some phenomenal success as a very young minor league hitter.

[rockondlouie]

I've been saying this for some time, just had this conversation w/bully in another thread.

The 2026 Cardinals will be better than the 2025 team because...........

-M. Mikolas, E. Fredde are gone----that's an upgrade already!

-A. Pallante is headed back to the pen', another rotation upgrade

(It would be hard for any starter to be worse than those three were in 2025)

-JJW replaces Donny, could be an even better offensive player

-NADO's glove will be missed but N. Gorman should provide more offense

-WillyC would be the BIG MISS, but a full season of I. Hererra could easily replace his offense

And that doesn't even count the players who come back via the trades who may be MLB ready!

Plus C. Bloom could still add via FA too.

Agree with this in principle, but not completely. Nolan Gorman is coming up on his 5th major league season. He has never outproduced Arenado in a season yet- I wouldn't assume that he will this year. Are you suggesting that in addition to Herrera's 19 homers last season that he will "easily" also replace the 20 home runs Contreras hit? I wouldn't assume that either.

The subtractions from the rotation will be a big deal, there are some players who will show improvements, and as you say, there will be some new players we don't know anything about yet. We'll see who those are before I make predictions about who we could and couldn't be. The potential to be better isn't crazy talk though.

NADO 2025:
436 PA's
12 HR
52 RBI
.237 .289 .377 .666

Gorman 2025:
402 PA
14 HR
46 RBI
.205 .296 .370 .666

NADO (and I'm a fan) is trending down but could bounce back in 2026 but w/limited upside?

Gorman is much younger and should still have some upside.

Neither is a great option at 3rd base in 2025 but I do think Gorman can easily surpass NADO's offense but of course will be nowhere near his defense.

As for I. Hererra, I was referring to a full season of him being the logical hitter who could replace WillyC as our most productive hitter.

I do think w/600+ PA's his capable of hitting 25+ HR's.

[rockondlouie]

I've been saying this for some time, just had this conversation w/bully in another thread.

The 2026 Cardinals will be better than the 2025 team because...........

-M. Mikolas, E. Fredde are gone----that's an upgrade already!

-A. Pallante is headed back to the pen', another rotation upgrade

(It would be hard for any starter to be worse than those three were in 2025)

-JJW replaces Donny, could be an even better offensive player

-NADO's glove will be missed but N. Gorman should provide more offense

-WillyC would be the BIG MISS, but a full season of I. Hererra could easily replace his offense

And that doesn't even count the players who come back via the trades who may be MLB ready!

Plus C. Bloom could still add via FA too.

Yeah, I don't necessarily see JJW replacing Donny in 2026 but I see the basis for that replacement and, even, improvement. No argument on the rest of your comments. Would love to see Gorman's offense become a real positive. We'll see.

IF he lives up to his potential huge, then we could be looking at JJW being an .850 - .900 OPS hitter with 20 HR/20 SB potential.

Sure he has to do it in MLB but this kids got the pedigree and minor league success (2025 AA/AAA: .306 .421 .510 .931 w/17 HR & 23 SB's) to do it.

[Shady]

I've been saying this for some time, just had this conversation w/bully in another thread.

The 2026 Cardinals will be better than the 2025 team because...........

-M. Mikolas, E. Fredde are gone----that's an upgrade already!

-A. Pallante is headed back to the pen', another rotation upgrade

(It would be hard for any starter to be worse than those three were in 2025)

-JJW replaces Donny, could be an even better offensive player

-NADO's glove will be missed but N. Gorman should provide more offense

-WillyC would be the BIG MISS, but a full season of I. Hererra could easily replace his offense

And that doesn't even count the players who come back via the trades who may be MLB ready!

Plus C. Bloom could still add via FA too.

Agree with this in principle, but not completely. Nolan Gorman is coming up on his 5th major league season. He has never outproduced Arenado in a season yet- I wouldn't assume that he will this year. Are you suggesting that in addition to Herrera's 19 homers last season that he will "easily" also replace the 20 home runs Contreras hit? I wouldn't assume that either.

The subtractions from the rotation will be a big deal, there are some players who will show improvements, and as you say, there will be some new players we don't know anything about yet. We'll see who those are before I make predictions about who we could and couldn't be. The potential to be better isn't crazy talk though.

NADO 2025:
436 PA's
12 HR
52 RBI
.237 .289 .377 .666

Gorman 2025:
402 PA
14 HR
46 RBI
.205 .296 .370 .666

NADO (and I'm a fan) is trending down but could bounce back in 2026 but w/limited upside?

Gorman is much younger and should still have some upside.

Neither is a great option at 3rd base in 2025 but I do think Gorman can easily surpass NADO's offense but of course will be nowhere near his defense.

As for I. Hererra, I was referring to a full season of him being the logical hitter who could replace WillyC as our most productive hitter.

I do think w/600+ PA's his capable of hitting 25+ HR's.

Any chance Burleson could be the most productive Cardinals' hitter in '26? He could match Herrera's production. IMO

[Talkin' Baseball]

I've been saying this for some time, just had this conversation w/bully in another thread.

The 2026 Cardinals will be better than the 2025 team because...........

-M. Mikolas, E. Fredde are gone----that's an upgrade already!

-A. Pallante is headed back to the pen', another rotation upgrade

(It would be hard for any starter to be worse than those three were in 2025)

-JJW replaces Donny, could be an even better offensive player

-NADO's glove will be missed but N. Gorman should provide more offense

-WillyC would be the BIG MISS, but a full season of I. Hererra could easily replace his offense

And that doesn't even count the players who come back via the trades who may be MLB ready!

Plus C. Bloom could still add via FA too.

Agree with this in principle, but not completely. Nolan Gorman is coming up on his 5th major league season. He has never outproduced Arenado in a season yet- I wouldn't assume that he will this year. Are you suggesting that in addition to Herrera's 19 homers last season that he will "easily" also replace the 20 home runs Contreras hit? I wouldn't assume that either.

The subtractions from the rotation will be a big deal, there are some players who will show improvements, and as you say, there will be some new players we don't know anything about yet. We'll see who those are before I make predictions about who we could and couldn't be. The potential to be better isn't crazy talk though.

NADO 2025:
436 PA's
12 HR
52 RBI
.237 .289 .377 .666

Gorman 2025:
402 PA
14 HR
46 RBI
.205 .296 .370 .666

NADO (and I'm a fan) is trending down but could bounce back in 2026 but w/limited upside?

Gorman is much younger and should still have some upside.

Neither is a great option at 3rd base in 2025 but I do think Gorman can easily surpass NADO's offense but of course will be nowhere near his defense.

As for I. Hererra, I was referring to a full season of him being the logical hitter who could replace WillyC as our most productive hitter.

I do think w/600+ PA's his capable of hitting 25+ HR's.

We'll see. We're at a place where we all have our opinions. NG has never outperformed NA offensively in a season to date. That much we can substantiate. Moving on to opinion- I don't see Gorman ever getting to 600 PA's in a season in his entire career. Regular back issues and too many 1-2 month stretches where he is nearly unplayable. Even with those things, he may get to 25 HR's in some season. I just wouldn't bake that into my team's projections.