4 top prospects Cardinals are eyeing in a Donovan deal ..2 Mariners & 2 Giants

[zuck698]

I’m a hockey guy, so my evaluation of MLB trades may be way off, but trading an all-star in his prime for 2 prospects, neither of which are the other team’s top prospect and neither of which are guaranteed to be MLB players is just wild…you’re trading for a lottery ticket. I won’t be happy if the return is something like this.

The big difference between hockey and MLB is the salary cap. In hockey, the value of restricted free agents and free agents is quite predictable. Therefore, a team can determine how a player fits into its payroll structure with a high degree of accuracy, not that it is not complicated. In baseball, a player like Donovan could get a 5/$80-100M contract when he is a free agent. If that is above what the Cards want to pay him, then trading him now makes sense. The teams that want him are contenders that are unlikely to want to trade off their ML roster. Hence, you get prospects. What the early trades suggest is that veterans are valued higher than their BTV than prospects, i.e. the teams trading prospects are willing to give up more perceived future value for the certainty of current production. Lottery tickets yes, but, expensive ones.

Would the Blues trade Justin Carbonneau for just any player? He is probably by far their most valuable prospect. I would equate Donovan to Jake Neighbors on the Blues. Would the Blues trade Justin Carbonneau for another teams equivalent of Jack Neighbors? Maybe, maybe not.

Good analogy! Also on the J.C. for Jake trade, that is a tough one. JC has all-world goal scoring potential but Jake is future Captain material??? I will say though, and you may not agree, but I think top hockey prospects are easier to forecast their success, vs, top baseball prospects. For one, there isn't as many in hockey versus the vast number of top prospects in baseball. Secondly, the skills in hockey usually translates eventually to the NHL, where in baseball, we see so many top prospects flame out and never make it the big show. And even if they do make it, they sometimes don't set the world on fire according to expectations. In hockey, the top prospects usually, not always, but usually have a nice career, even if they don't quite live up to their prospect billing. Jmo.

[Melville]

Best possible outcome for the Cardinals is for AZ to trade Marte to Seattle or the Giants first.
Be patient and see what blooms.
Once AZ trades Marte, the D'Backs will get serious in their discussions with STL about acquiring Arenado.
Once that is wrapped up, then deal Donovan if Bloom (incorrectly) feels he must.
Bottom line.
Let AZ trade Marte first - and the market value for Donovan will go up.

currently reading chat on MLBTR and the host Mark P made a good point.
as good as Marte is, AZ is NOT about to trade him within division to a rival.
very very doubtful Giants acquire Marte.

I actually have doubts of Marte being a player that Seattle would be
in the market for just because the way they operate.

30 minutes from now they will prove me wrong.

Az will want more than what Seattle is typically comfortable with.
Marte's contract goes until he's 37 or 38 at $16M/year. Strong for 2B.
He brings what they should want but they probably lose what they want too
and he's not cheap.

so neither seattle or sf get Marte.
good for Donovan's market

SEA is rumored to be one of the strongest pursuers of Marte - and that only increased after failing to sign Polanco.
When Marte is traded by AZ - wherever he goes - the logical next step for them is to acquire N/A.
Plenty of time if Bloom is determined to move Donovan - he should wait for the chips to fall and give him pathways to make the move with N/A and another with Donovan.

[ICCFIM2]

I want this one:

#3 Prospect ... OF Lazaro Montes AA age 21 6-5 210 ETA 2026 ranked 29th in Top 100

Especially if C. Bloom feels his team down below can up his other tools to close to league average.

This team desperately needs a power hitting OF'er, this kid could be it.

The Seattle package is a dreadful idea.
A "could be it" outfielder who is lesser than options STL already has in the system and a pitcher who's only significant upside is a novelty act?
No thanks.

Ha!

NOT even close to being "lesser than options STL already has" which is NOTHING!

Stupid the swap for Montes when they already have Baez knocking on the door.
One is no better or worse a bet than the other - neither are sure things.
Bloom must get someone who has already has a successful MLB look.
Trading Donovan for one or two rolls of the dice would be idiocy that I would expect from Super Slo Mo - not from Bloom.

What's wrong with doubling your odds of finding that desperately needed powerhitting OFer?

And reading up on Montes, I'm definitely interested in a powerhitting OF'er w/30-40 HR power potential who's swing is being compared to
J. Alvarez and he's got a solid batting eye (re: takes walks).

If he develops into that 35-40 HR hitter w/a .350+ OB%, then he's a winner even if he KO's 150 times.

For one who labeled N. Gorman the "unicorn" when he projected to those exact stats, sans the batting eye needed to take walks and get t that .350 OB%, I'm surprised you're taking shots at this kid.

BTW, very few prospects are a "sure thing", most are just a c r a p shoot.

Remember this is B. Donovan we're trading, not a superstar player (RE: J. Soto when traded) who's brings back that "sure thing(s)".

Nothing wrong with doubling your odds.
But plenty wrong if both of the best are long odds.
Montes would be fine as the secondary asset acquired.
But the first asset in a package must have proven MLB ability - such as Miller.

Redbirdrants

If those were the packages and if it was considered a good
package wouldn't it have been completed and be actual news?

I don't think they move any of the current rotation or Kade Anderson. IF they do, I'm not sure
Miller is the guy. This season wasn't healthy which has its own concerns but I'll move
to his best season of 2024. Seattle was known to suppress hitting, a prior batters eye issue.
In 2024 his home/away splits have era 1.96 to 4.07, SO/9, 10.4 to 6.4, HR 6/15.

He's young, has upside but also some concerns. I also wonder IF Seattle subtracts from their
current MLB roster how much will it take for them to make that move, more than Donnie?.
Seattle's market is small. They will need to either give more in trade than they want or
spend more than they want, get uncomfortable.

Trades always seem to have their own pacing. Katie Woo has always been pretty accurate. If that is who the Cards want, then Seattle probably has to go through their view of their expected needs as well before pulling the trigger. They don't have another power bat like Montes in their system and they just lost Polanco. So he may not be a piece they are willing to trade because it is not from an area of strength. Arroyo is also an interesting prospect at 5. But, their current ML infield, while young, is far from certain it is the right group. Arroyo may make more sense for them in that Donovan replaces him on their team. Then the issue is do the Cards want him. Either he or Wetherhold would likely need to man 3B in the future and both have arm strength questions to do so. Would the Cards want more. I don't think these types of trades happen quickly. I would expect by Friday this week for the Cards to have traded Donovan in that they have been pushing hard for over a week now. The candidates have to be getting narrowed down.

[ICCFIM2]

I’m a hockey guy, so my evaluation of MLB trades may be way off, but trading an all-star in his prime for 2 prospects, neither of which are the other team’s top prospect and neither of which are guaranteed to be MLB players is just wild…you’re trading for a lottery ticket. I won’t be happy if the return is something like this.

The big difference between hockey and MLB is the salary cap. In hockey, the value of restricted free agents and free agents is quite predictable. Therefore, a team can determine how a player fits into its payroll structure with a high degree of accuracy, not that it is not complicated. In baseball, a player like Donovan could get a 5/$80-100M contract when he is a free agent. If that is above what the Cards want to pay him, then trading him now makes sense. The teams that want him are contenders that are unlikely to want to trade off their ML roster. Hence, you get prospects. What the early trades suggest is that veterans are valued higher than their BTV than prospects, i.e. the teams trading prospects are willing to give up more perceived future value for the certainty of current production. Lottery tickets yes, but, expensive ones.

Would the Blues trade Justin Carbonneau for just any player? He is probably by far their most valuable prospect. I would equate Donovan to Jake Neighbors on the Blues. Would the Blues trade Justin Carbonneau for another teams equivalent of Jack Neighbors? Maybe, maybe not.

Good analogy! Also on the J.C. for Jake trade, that is a tough one. JC has all-world goal scoring potential but Jake is future Captain material??? I will say though, and you may not agree, but I think top hockey prospects are easier to forecast their success, vs, top baseball prospects. For one, there isn't as many in hockey versus the vast number of top prospects in baseball. Secondly, the skills in hockey usually translates eventually to the NHL, where in baseball, we see so many top prospects flame out and never make it the big show. And even if they do make it, they sometimes don't set the world on fire according to expectations. In hockey, the top prospects usually, not always, but usually have a nice career, even if they don't quite live up to their prospect billing. Jmo.

Probably hockey has a bit more certainty in that those skills translate to a higher floor. But, as we have seen with the Blues, there are a lot of guys that wash out or flat out cannot perform at the required level to be a contender. We are seeing that with the Blues play right now. They are winning under 50% of the puck battles in the corner. That may not show up in the trading card statistics. But, it shows up in the W-L columns...The difference between having 7 20+ goal scorers and 7 15+ goal scorers is making the playoffs or not. While the total goal differential is not huge, it is a 25% differential. A 360 OBP is really good. 25% less is 270 and is just terrible. In hockey we tend to say 15 goals is sort of OK. But, its really not, its terrible. For example, Braden Shen is on pace for 15 goals this year...

[zuck698]

I’m a hockey guy, so my evaluation of MLB trades may be way off, but trading an all-star in his prime for 2 prospects, neither of which are the other team’s top prospect and neither of which are guaranteed to be MLB players is just wild…you’re trading for a lottery ticket. I won’t be happy if the return is something like this.

The big difference between hockey and MLB is the salary cap. In hockey, the value of restricted free agents and free agents is quite predictable. Therefore, a team can determine how a player fits into its payroll structure with a high degree of accuracy, not that it is not complicated. In baseball, a player like Donovan could get a 5/$80-100M contract when he is a free agent. If that is above what the Cards want to pay him, then trading him now makes sense. The teams that want him are contenders that are unlikely to want to trade off their ML roster. Hence, you get prospects. What the early trades suggest is that veterans are valued higher than their BTV than prospects, i.e. the teams trading prospects are willing to give up more perceived future value for the certainty of current production. Lottery tickets yes, but, expensive ones.

Would the Blues trade Justin Carbonneau for just any player? He is probably by far their most valuable prospect. I would equate Donovan to Jake Neighbors on the Blues. Would the Blues trade Justin Carbonneau for another teams equivalent of Jack Neighbors? Maybe, maybe not.

Good analogy! Also on the J.C. for Jake trade, that is a tough one. JC has all-world goal scoring potential but Jake is future Captain material??? I will say though, and you may not agree, but I think top hockey prospects are easier to forecast their success, vs, top baseball prospects. For one, there isn't as many in hockey versus the vast number of top prospects in baseball. Secondly, the skills in hockey usually translates eventually to the NHL, where in baseball, we see so many top prospects flame out and never make it the big show. And even if they do make it, they sometimes don't set the world on fire according to expectations. In hockey, the top prospects usually, not always, but usually have a nice career, even if they don't quite live up to their prospect billing. Jmo.

Probably hockey has a bit more certainty in that those skills translate to a higher floor. But, as we have seen with the Blues, there are a lot of guys that wash out or flat out cannot perform at the required level to be a contender. We are seeing that with the Blues play right now. They are winning under 50% of the puck battles in the corner. That may not show up in the trading card statistics. But, it shows up in the W-L columns...The difference between having 7 20+ goal scorers and 7 15+ goal scorers is making the playoffs or not. While the total goal differential is not huge, it is a 25% differential. A 360 OBP is really good. 25% less is 270 and is just terrible. In hockey we tend to say 15 goals is sort of OK. But, its really not, its terrible. For example, Braden Shen is on pace for 15 goals this year...

Yes, that is basically what I was trying to say. As far as the Blues, something is off in the leadership department. Hockey is such a game of aggression on the puck and the man, and we just aren't winning too many of those passion battles. We are young, and now hurt as well, but they need somebody like Bortuzzo, slapping someone in practice again. The slap that turned into a Cup!

[renostl]

I want this one:

#3 Prospect ... OF Lazaro Montes AA age 21 6-5 210 ETA 2026 ranked 29th in Top 100

Especially if C. Bloom feels his team down below can up his other tools to close to league average.

This team desperately needs a power hitting OF'er, this kid could be it.

The Seattle package is a dreadful idea.
A "could be it" outfielder who is lesser than options STL already has in the system and a pitcher who's only significant upside is a novelty act?
No thanks.

Ha!

NOT even close to being "lesser than options STL already has" which is NOTHING!

Stupid the swap for Montes when they already have Baez knocking on the door.
One is no better or worse a bet than the other - neither are sure things.
Bloom must get someone who has already has a successful MLB look.
Trading Donovan for one or two rolls of the dice would be idiocy that I would expect from Super Slo Mo - not from Bloom.

What's wrong with doubling your odds of finding that desperately needed powerhitting OFer?

And reading up on Montes, I'm definitely interested in a powerhitting OF'er w/30-40 HR power potential who's swing is being compared to
J. Alvarez and he's got a solid batting eye (re: takes walks).

If he develops into that 35-40 HR hitter w/a .350+ OB%, then he's a winner even if he KO's 150 times.

For one who labeled N. Gorman the "unicorn" when he projected to those exact stats, sans the batting eye needed to take walks and get t that .350 OB%, I'm surprised you're taking shots at this kid.

BTW, very few prospects are a "sure thing", most are just a c r a p shoot.

Remember this is B. Donovan we're trading, not a superstar player (RE: J. Soto when traded) who's brings back that "sure thing(s)".

Nothing wrong with doubling your odds.
But plenty wrong if both of the best are long odds.
Montes would be fine as the secondary asset acquired.
But the first asset in a package must have proven MLB ability - such as Miller.

Redbirdrants

If those were the packages and if it was considered a good
package wouldn't it have been completed and be actual news?

I don't think they move any of the current rotation or Kade Anderson. IF they do, I'm not sure
Miller is the guy. This season wasn't healthy which has its own concerns but I'll move
to his best season of 2024. Seattle was known to suppress hitting, a prior batters eye issue.
In 2024 his home/away splits have era 1.96 to 4.07, SO/9, 10.4 to 6.4, HR 6/15.

He's young, has upside but also some concerns. I also wonder IF Seattle subtracts from their
current MLB roster how much will it take for them to make that move, more than Donnie?.
Seattle's market is small. They will need to either give more in trade than they want or
spend more than they want, get uncomfortable.

Trades always seem to have their own pacing. Katie Woo has always been pretty accurate. If that is who the Cards want, then Seattle probably has to go through their view of their expected needs as well before pulling the trigger. They don't have another power bat like Montes in their system and they just lost Polanco. So he may not be a piece they are willing to trade because it is not from an area of strength. Arroyo is also an interesting prospect at 5. But, their current ML infield, while young, is far from certain it is the right group. Arroyo may make more sense for them in that Donovan replaces him on their team. Then the issue is do the Cards want him. Either he or Wetherhold would likely need to man 3B in the future and both have arm strength questions to do so. Would the Cards want more. I don't think these types of trades happen quickly. I would expect by Friday this week for the Cards to have traded Donovan in that they have been pushing hard for over a week now. The candidates have to be getting narrowed down.

Yes they do travel at their own pace.

IF either side see's this as a preferred match however there are some risks in another deal happening.

Should be interesting

[Ronnie Dobbs]

Summarizing...

1. Donovan is our best trade chip.
2. We can't get a top prospect for Donovan.
3. The Cardinals won't be 90 game pretenders who just make the playoffs, they will be real contenders, yeah, WS favorites in 3 or 4 years due to trading off all of our veteran players for half a dozen stars who aren't top prospects now but will carry the team to glory.

That's one really dumb way to interpret it.

[JDW]

FWIW, per BTV:

Montes: 24.6
Cijntje: 14.5
Total: 39.1

Donovan: 32.5

This is sort of what I hope they don’t do: trade for aggregate value that’s spread across multiple “ok” prospects, rather than concentrated in one premium prospect.

This ^

They throw in the Alvarez comp with Montes but it's really just false hype. The Gorman comp is likely a lot closer to the truth. Raw power w/o a good position fit, aka as a DH candidate.
Package Donovan with Burleson as an example to get a premium prospect.

[FrankTheTank]

https://www.mlb.com/milb/prospects/mariners/

I read something yesterday that said the Cardinals want the Mariners #4 prospect, Ryan Sloan.
https://www.mlb.com/milb/prospects/mari ... oan-815549

"One name the Cardinals have inquired on is pitcher Jurrangelo Cijntje, a first-round draft pick for Seattle in 2024, who throws both right- and left-handed. Outfielder Lazaro Montes has also been discussed, among others. St. Louis has plenty of familiarity with the Mariners’ pitching system. Director of pitching Matt Pierpont spent four seasons with the Mariners before coming to the Cardinals ahead of the 2025 season. Seattle could also be motivated to make a big acquisition after losing Jorge Polanco to the New York Mets."

https://www.si.com/fannation/mlb/fastba ... uster-pat3

[renostl]

https://www.mlb.com/milb/prospects/mariners/

I read something yesterday that said the Cardinals want the Mariners #4 prospect, Ryan Sloan.
https://www.mlb.com/milb/prospects/mari ... oan-815549

"One name the Cardinals have inquired on is pitcher Jurrangelo Cijntje, a first-round draft pick for Seattle in 2024, who throws both right- and left-handed. Outfielder Lazaro Montes has also been discussed, among others. St. Louis has plenty of familiarity with the Mariners’ pitching system. Director of pitching Matt Pierpont spent four seasons with the Mariners before coming to the Cardinals ahead of the 2025 season. Seattle could also be motivated to make a big acquisition after losing Jorge Polanco to the New York Mets."

https://www.si.com/fannation/mlb/fastba ... uster-pat3

You could have read about Sloan right here, he has been popular.
I sometimes question where the names on any return come from.
Is it an actual leak of information or people connecting dots and speculating.

[FrankTheTank]

You could have read about Sloan right here, he has been popular.
I sometimes question where the names on any return come from.
Is it an actual leak of information or people connecting dots and speculating.

There was an article that discussed Sloan, I will look for it. I don't know about a leak, but I am sure that it is a mix of educated guesses and just random opinions from people who either follow the teams or MLB in general. For the Cardinals, I think this is key -

Director of pitching Matt Pierpont spent four seasons with the Mariners before coming to the Cardinals ahead of the 2025 season

He knows their system, so I am sure the Cardinals trust him and his input. Similar to Bloom and his familiarity with the Red Sox organization.

[renostl]

You could have read about Sloan right here, he has been popular.
I sometimes question where the names on any return come from.
Is it an actual leak of information or people connecting dots and speculating.

There was an article that discussed Sloan, I will look for it. I don't know about a leak, but I am sure that it is a mix of educated guesses and just random opinions from people who either follow the teams or MLB in general. For the Cardinals, I think this is key -

Director of pitching Matt Pierpont spent four seasons with the Mariners before coming to the Cardinals ahead of the 2025 season

He knows their system, so I am sure the Cardinals trust him and his input. Similar to Bloom and his familiarity with the Red Sox organization.

When looking at trade partners for the Cardinals it is easy to like Seattle IF
they break from what they've done in the past. Boston works very well too.
I don't care for SF current group. I used to spend time in Sacramento until
last season.
Always good to have an insider, Pierpont helps.

[CCard]

I would like Montes and cijntje Montes is the kind of outfield prospect they need to go with Baez. He’s got big time power and gets on base. Strikes out a lot though but he gets on base

Montes' loudest tool is still his top-of-the-scale raw power from the left side of the plate, and he's continuing to learn how to get to that pop consistently in games. He has outstanding bat speed with plenty of loft in his swing to drive the ball in the air, and he can regularly register elite-level exit velocities. There is some swing-and-miss to his game and there will always be strikeouts, but he also draws walks (14.4 percent walk rate in 2024) as he's learning to find better pitches to hit. He models his game after and is often compared to fellow Cuban Yordan Alvarez.

He is slow and below average defensively so only corner OF and very likely could end up being a DH due to defensive woes. He is a beast though that can launch the ball with the best of them.

Him and Baez at the corners would make for a pretty good outfield

More unproven talent that will take the Cards to the promised land. Hallelujah! Pass the plate. LOL

Well Donovan hasn’t and won’t take the cardinals to the promised land so pretty dumb to keep him. It’s hilarious some people think Donovan is the type of player you build a team around

Name a starting Cardinal infield that's better without him in it. What we have here is Schrodinger's Donovan. He's too good to not get multiple top tier prospects but yet he's not good enough to keep as a Cardinal. LOL

[82birds]

Emerson, anyone?

https://redbirdrants.com/mlb-insider-be ... an-donovan

[Talkin' Baseball]

The only Emerson Seattle would talk to us about is Emerson Hancock.

[craviduce]

The only Emerson Seattle would talk to us about is Emerson Hancock.

brother of Herbie Hancock