JDW wrote: ↑12 Dec 2025 13:11 pm
Selfishly I'd like to see Contreras at 1B with the Cards in 2026, but he is at the risky regression age near where we've seen Arenado and Goldy fall off significantly. I do think the Cards would be better with WC at 1B next season than with Burly there, but can't deny it'd make sense to trade WC if you can get good value for him this offseason.
We will get a better return trading Burley than trading Wilson.
Also, how much could Boston have left that we actually want? We already got our first choice for Sonny Grey didn’t we?
Boston looking for right handed bat
What can they offer? We already got fitts and Clark.
There are other trading partners out there and other more valuable trading chips on our roster
JDW wrote: ↑12 Dec 2025 13:11 pm
Selfishly I'd like to see Contreras at 1B with the Cards in 2026, but he is at the risky regression age near where we've seen Arenado and Goldy fall off significantly. I do think the Cards would be better with WC at 1B next season than with Burly there, but can't deny it'd make sense to trade WC if you can get good value for him this offseason.
We will get a better return trading Burley than trading Wilson.
Also, how much could Boston have left that we actually want? We already got our first choice for Sonny Grey didn’t we?
Boston looking for right handed bat
What can they offer? We already got fitts and Clark.
There are other trading partners out there and other more valuable trading chips on our roster
If Boston gets Willy, then you would figure that Casas may be part of something coming back? He was injured last year, but at 25, you wouldn't think that he is going to sit on the bench behind Willy Con. Justin Gonzales has the looks as a decent prospect. Outfielder with good size and bats R. Young!
I agree about other teams. I keep going back to the Mets as the team who has the toys we need.
WaltsSuccessor wrote: ↑12 Dec 2025 14:33 pm
Someone with a BTV subscription help me out with this one. If we trade WC to Boston, how much more prospect capital could we extract IF we agreed to take back all the Yoshida contract too? Red Sox have been dying to find someone to take that contract.
Like could we trade WC for Durran, Yoshida, AND a top pitching prospect like Tolle or Early?
Just not sure how the surplus value shakes out. However, I personally love the idea of taking back Yoshida in the deal to greatly sweeten the pot. Don't like the player whatsoever, but it keeps the trade relatively cash neutral for the Cards and should bring back way more future value by doing so.
I don't think we're going to pry Tolle, Early, nor Witherspoon from the Red Sox.
Set your sights on Marcus Phillips.
OR...Couple WC with JoJo or whomever and pick up $7million due each of the next 2 seasons for WC...then maybe they'll budge on Witherspoon...that's real get, imo....4 pitches he already has mastered....Four Seamer, Curve, Slider, Cutter
Thanks, Crav. Was hoping you or RBI would reply. I sure miss when BTV was free. It was fun to play around with these.
Could see Jojo or Nootbaar being of interest for Boston. If they trade Durran, they'd have a starting OF of Rafeala in CF then Abreu and Anthony in the corners. Noot would be a solid 4th OF to pair with that group.
At the BTV website, you can do search or sort trades by clicking on Trade Boards put in a player name and it will bring up trades other people have proposed without paying for it. Marcus Phillips, the guy Crav likes, has a 7.9 BTV. Contreras is -14.1 and Yoshida is -26.1. Yoshida is owed $37.2M on that contract. I don't think it makes any sense in a rebuild to take that contract on. It would also potentially block playing time for one of our OFs when we are in a rebuild.
A lot of these trades the established guy is get an 8-10 premium over prospects. So if the Cards put in about 12M of cash, that may pry Phillips away for Contreras, assuming the Red Sox are willing to part with him. He is years away from being ready, so also not sure how much in line he is with the Cards time line either. But, if the Cards want to stack up the highest upside prospects possible as part of the rebuild, a trade like that makes sense, even if the time line is 2028.
Thanks for the additional color. Few thoughts.
1. I’m surprised by Contreras’ value. Would’ve thought he was closer to breakeven.
2. Equally surprised Yoshida’s isn’t more negative. Guy is basically a singles hitter than can only DH.
3. So I agree, in those contexts, taking Yoshida back doesn’t move the needle enough on additional return from the Sox. However, and I probably should’ve added this originally, I didn’t really intend on keeping/playing Yoshida. Probably could’ve just eaten 75% of his contract and move him. Or maybe even DFA him. Just with the Cards dumping so much salary, I meant thought they could afford to take back bad contracts to get better prospects. Be silly to trade everyone and roll out a $60m payroll like we’re the Marlins.
I am also surprised at Contreras value since he has put up 3.3, 3.0 and 2.5 bwar seasons which is playing at least to the level of his contract. But, I can't site BTV and then ignore it when I don't like the answer. While is generally pretty accurate, we are seeing early trades coming in valuing veterans higher than prospects.
I was always against a rebuild because there is no certainty of success. To your point, it is kind of silly to roll out a $60M payroll like the Marlins. Having said that, if management committs to just playing youngsters in 2026 with the commitment to add $40-60M in payroll in 2027 to get back to $130M and another $50-70M in 2028 to get to $180M, I can get on board. They will have refreshed the roster and hopefully the payroll adds are for true areas of need and they obtain true value for the payroll add. Some of that payroll add will be extensions and arb payouts. They have enough SP arms at Memphis they hopefully only need to add 1 TOR type pitcher by 2028. Trading Donovan creates a hole on the infield in that Winn, Wetherholdt and Herrera/Burleson is OK, for the IF, but where is the 3B in the system? They also likely need an OF that is a MOTOB. Maybe Baez becomes that. But adding $120M in payroll by 2028 can surely add 3 impact players to the group to get them into contention by 2028, if not by 2027. By 2028, they will know almost for certain if Walker, the Baez boys, and which pitching prospects that are on the cusp today are good enough. That clarity needs to translate into direct action to put a winner on the field. If not, that stadium will be empty for a long time...
ICCFIM2 wrote: ↑12 Dec 2025 23:53 pm
I am also surprised at Contreras value since he has put up 3.3, 3.0 and 2.5 bwar seasons which is playing at least to the level of his contract. But, I can't site BTV and then ignore it when I don't like the answer. While is generally pretty accurate, we are seeing early trades coming in valuing veterans higher than prospects.
I'm also surprised Contreras is as negative as it is.
FG has him at 2.8, 2.7, and 2.8 fWAR the past three seasons, and their models predict him 1.4 - 2.0 fWAR in 2026.
I can only guess that what is going on is: (1) an expectation that his offense production will drop as he's getting into his mid-30s and (2) that he'll lose some value because he'll have to move off of 1B into pretty much a strictly DH role. Per fWAR, the positional value of the move from 1B to DH would cost him about 0.5 fWAR (~$4-5 million in value) per season.
ICCFIM2 wrote: ↑12 Dec 2025 23:53 pm
I am also surprised at Contreras value since he has put up 3.3, 3.0 and 2.5 bwar seasons which is playing at least to the level of his contract. But, I can't site BTV and then ignore it when I don't like the answer. While is generally pretty accurate, we are seeing early trades coming in valuing veterans higher than prospects.
I'm also surprised Contreras is as negative as it is.
FG has him at 2.8, 2.7, and 2.8 fWAR the past three seasons, and their models predict him 1.4 - 2.0 fWAR in 2026.
I can only guess that what is going on is: (1) an expectation that his offense production will drop as he's getting into his mid-30s and (2) that he'll lose some value because he'll have to move off of 1B into pretty much a strictly DH role. Per fWAR, the positional value of the move from 1B to DH would cost him about 0.5 fWAR (~$4-5 million in value) per season.
Matt, I see you’re attempting to rationalize a future prediction for WAR…..I recommend stepping away from the keyboard VERY SLOWLY
JDW wrote: ↑12 Dec 2025 13:11 pm
Selfishly I'd like to see Contreras at 1B with the Cards in 2026, but he is at the risky regression age near where we've seen Arenado and Goldy fall off significantly. I do think the Cards would be better with WC at 1B next season than with Burly there, but can't deny it'd make sense to trade WC if you can get good value for him this offseason.
Goldschmidt won the MVP in his age-34 season.
Key words, risky and near.
That said, how was Arenado in his 34 age season?
That said, I'd be just fine if the Cards take a chance WC performing well at his 34 age season.
I think WC will do well in 2026, but big deal, trying to predict who regresses at what age isn't good risk management.
Neither are good comparisons for Contreras imo. Goldschmidt was still extremely effective at age 34, while Contreras has already surpassed Arenado’s decline.
I wasnt really arguing against your point, just pointing out Goldschmidt is a bad example imo.
JDW wrote: ↑12 Dec 2025 13:11 pm
Selfishly I'd like to see Contreras at 1B with the Cards in 2026, but he is at the risky regression age near where we've seen Arenado and Goldy fall off significantly. I do think the Cards would be better with WC at 1B next season than with Burly there, but can't deny it'd make sense to trade WC if you can get good value for him this offseason.
Goldschmidt won the MVP in his age-34 season.
Key words, risky and near.
That said, how was Arenado in his 34 age season?
That said, I'd be just fine if the Cards take a chance WC performing well at his 34 age season.
I think WC will do well in 2026, but big deal, trying to predict who regresses at what age isn't good risk management.
The Cardinals need to start trading people when their value is high rather than continuing to wait until they age out, get injured, or underperform. WC's value will never be higher than it is now. They need to strike a deal. The intersection of Cardinals compete and Contreras still a high performer are unlikely to meet. Therefore, getting a return and save money that can get spent (presumably) later. There is zero reason to keep WC on the team if there is a respectable return available.
Excellent post, especially your first sentence, which is something Bloom’s predecessor never understood.
82birds wrote: ↑13 Dec 2025 10:47 am
with the signing of Polanco, Mets out?
Red Sox in?
It is being reported he will play 1B. But, he is a truly terrible defensive player. Contreras would have been a better overall player for the Mets. I am assuming the Mets also will not bring back Starling Marte who mostly DH'd for them last year. So they still have room for Contreras if they want.
The Mets have an aging team their owner will need to outspend to keep them a contender. They also need help at catcher. They have enough young pitching that will help the spending problem. But because of the aging issue, it is highly unlikely they would be willing to part with any of their top 5 prospects. A guy like Jack Wenninger who is there #13 and is another RH McGreevy type has a BTV of 5 they would likely be willing to part with. He may not move the needle a lot. But, a straight up trade Contreras for Wenninger may not be a bad trade for either team. The Cards move a high priced veteran and get another pitcher that is close to ML ready, albeit a another likely #4/5.
ICCFIM2 wrote: ↑12 Dec 2025 23:53 pm
I am also surprised at Contreras value since he has put up 3.3, 3.0 and 2.5 bwar seasons which is playing at least to the level of his contract. But, I can't site BTV and then ignore it when I don't like the answer. While is generally pretty accurate, we are seeing early trades coming in valuing veterans higher than prospects.
I'm also surprised Contreras is as negative as it is.
FG has him at 2.8, 2.7, and 2.8 fWAR the past three seasons, and their models predict him 1.4 - 2.0 fWAR in 2026.
I can only guess that what is going on is: (1) an expectation that his offense production will drop as he's getting into his mid-30s and (2) that he'll lose some value because he'll have to move off of 1B into pretty much a strictly DH role. Per fWAR, the positional value of the move from 1B to DH would cost him about 0.5 fWAR (~$4-5 million in value) per season.
This is a place that BTV doesn't fully capture. Teams do want to get a value on each contract.
What they want just as much is production. Paying a million or two million more for that doesn't
take anything away from the production. Yet on BTV money matters. Teams do not trade for players
unless they are desired. BTV may also be a touch behind this market. The Mets after all
are paying more because Polanco out produced WC.
WC numbers at 1B/DH are behind Burleson's. IF a team still see's him as at least a part time
catcher, then Contreras numbers put him ahead of Kirk. Only the Cards have said he's a 1B to date.
I wonder what his BTV is at C.
