The Increasing Risk of Signing Hitters Into Their Mid-30s

[pitchingandefense]

It's no secret that as velocity has increased in the game, so have the strikeouts and struggles of older players. It has been jarring to witness how quickly Arenado and Goldschmidt fell off. They follow a trend around the league. It makes the 5 year contracts of Schwarber and Alonso seem questionable. Here's some comparison between the 2015 and 2025 seasons for reference to the game's changes.

Average Fastball Velo
2015 93.3
2025 94.3

K/9
2015 7.76
2025 8.49 (This is actually down a bit from where it has been the last couple years)

Average age of Qualified hitters who were top 50 in wRC+
2015 29.5
2025 28.5

Qualified hitters age 34+ who were top 50 in wRC+
2015 7 (Oldest was 39)
2025 2 (Both were 35)

Qualified hitters age 34+ with wRC+ of 100 or higher
2015 10
2025 6


Unless MLB institutes some rule changes that help subdue the velocity (and injuries) pitchers are chasing, then we will likely see the end of hitters receiving contracts that go deep into their 30s. Another effect will be career counting numbers that fall short of current Hall of Fame standards. This is already happening with starting pitchers in the current environment.

[scoutyjones2]

I'm not seeing your correlation.

It's not supported by anything you posted

[Goldfan]

It's no secret that as velocity has increased in the game, so have the strikeouts and struggles of older players. It has been jarring to witness how quickly Arenado and Goldschmidt fell off. They follow a trend around the league. It makes the 5 year contracts of Schwarber and Alonso seem questionable. Here's some comparison between the 2015 and 2025 seasons for reference to the game's changes.

Average Fastball Velo
2015 93.3
2025 94.3

K/9
2015 7.76
2025 8.49 (This is actually down a bit from where it has been the last couple years)

Average age of Qualified hitters who were top 50 in wRC+
2015 29.5
2025 28.5

Qualified hitters age 34+ who were top 50 in wRC+
2015 7 (Oldest was 39)
2025 2 (Both were 35)

Qualified hitters age 34+ with wRC+ of 100 or higher
2015 10
2025 6


Unless MLB institutes some rule changes that help subdue the velocity (and injuries) pitchers are chasing, then we will likely see the end of hitters receiving contracts that go deep into their 30s. Another effect will be career counting numbers that fall short of current Hall of Fame standards. This is already happening with starting pitchers in the current environment.

You show the me the Wade Boggs, Rod Carew, Tony Gwynn, Pete Rose, Ozzie Smith, Paul Molitor, Willie McGee, Will Clark, Ichiro,……type hitters in todays game and then talk to me about 1mph increase in Velo the last decade. Most of these K’s are because of the hitters approach and nothing to do with Super Men Pitchers.

[pitchingandefense]

I'm not seeing your correlation.

It's not supported by anything you posted

As pitching velocity has increased, there are fewer older hitters producing at elite or above average levels. Therefore paying free agents big money deep into their 30s with expectations that they will remain elite is more risky now than it used to be.

[pitchingandefense]

It's no secret that as velocity has increased in the game, so have the strikeouts and struggles of older players. It has been jarring to witness how quickly Arenado and Goldschmidt fell off. They follow a trend around the league. It makes the 5 year contracts of Schwarber and Alonso seem questionable. Here's some comparison between the 2015 and 2025 seasons for reference to the game's changes.

Average Fastball Velo
2015 93.3
2025 94.3

K/9
2015 7.76
2025 8.49 (This is actually down a bit from where it has been the last couple years)

Average age of Qualified hitters who were top 50 in wRC+
2015 29.5
2025 28.5

Qualified hitters age 34+ who were top 50 in wRC+
2015 7 (Oldest was 39)
2025 2 (Both were 35)

Qualified hitters age 34+ with wRC+ of 100 or higher
2015 10
2025 6


Unless MLB institutes some rule changes that help subdue the velocity (and injuries) pitchers are chasing, then we will likely see the end of hitters receiving contracts that go deep into their 30s. Another effect will be career counting numbers that fall short of current Hall of Fame standards. This is already happening with starting pitchers in the current environment.

You show the me the Wade Boggs, Rod Carew, Tony Gwynn, Pete Rose, Ozzie Smith, Paul Molitor, Willie McGee, Will Clark, Ichiro,……type hitters in todays game and then talk to me about 1mph increase in Velo the last decade. Most of these K’s are because of the hitters approach and nothing to do with Super Men Pitchers.

I hear you. The game was much more entertaining then. But velocity has increased a lot more than 1 mph since those guys played. It’s disappointing we won’t see as many hitters chasing 3000 hits like we used to.

[Carp4Cy]

It's no secret that as velocity has increased in the game, so have the strikeouts and struggles of older players. It has been jarring to witness how quickly Arenado and Goldschmidt fell off. They follow a trend around the league. It makes the 5 year contracts of Schwarber and Alonso seem questionable. Here's some comparison between the 2015 and 2025 seasons for reference to the game's changes.

Average Fastball Velo
2015 93.3
2025 94.3

K/9
2015 7.76
2025 8.49 (This is actually down a bit from where it has been the last couple years)

Average age of Qualified hitters who were top 50 in wRC+
2015 29.5
2025 28.5

Qualified hitters age 34+ who were top 50 in wRC+
2015 7 (Oldest was 39)
2025 2 (Both were 35)

Qualified hitters age 34+ with wRC+ of 100 or higher
2015 10
2025 6


Unless MLB institutes some rule changes that help subdue the velocity (and injuries) pitchers are chasing, then we will likely see the end of hitters receiving contracts that go deep into their 30s. Another effect will be career counting numbers that fall short of current Hall of Fame standards. This is already happening with starting pitchers in the current environment.

You show the me the Wade Boggs, Rod Carew, Tony Gwynn, Pete Rose, Ozzie Smith, Paul Molitor, Willie McGee, Will Clark, Ichiro,……type hitters in todays game and then talk to me about 1mph increase in Velo the last decade. Most of these K’s are because of the hitters approach and nothing to do with Super Men Pitchers.

Those hitters probably don't produce as well in today's game as they did in the 80s against slower pitching and SPs going thru the order 3 and 4x a game. Certainly the next tier of low strikeout hitters wouldn't succeed today.

[TopofthePerch]

I think this is also due to the fact hitters have to adjust to more pitchers these days with teams going to their bullpens sooner. That would also factor into the velocity cause you might have to face multiple pitchers each game throwing upper nineties.

[CorneliusWolfe]

It's no secret that as velocity has increased in the game, so have the strikeouts and struggles of older players. It has been jarring to witness how quickly Arenado and Goldschmidt fell off. They follow a trend around the league. It makes the 5 year contracts of Schwarber and Alonso seem questionable. Here's some comparison between the 2015 and 2025 seasons for reference to the game's changes.

Average Fastball Velo
2015 93.3
2025 94.3

K/9
2015 7.76
2025 8.49 (This is actually down a bit from where it has been the last couple years)

Average age of Qualified hitters who were top 50 in wRC+
2015 29.5
2025 28.5

Qualified hitters age 34+ who were top 50 in wRC+
2015 7 (Oldest was 39)
2025 2 (Both were 35)

Qualified hitters age 34+ with wRC+ of 100 or higher
2015 10
2025 6


Unless MLB institutes some rule changes that help subdue the velocity (and injuries) pitchers are chasing, then we will likely see the end of hitters receiving contracts that go deep into their 30s. Another effect will be career counting numbers that fall short of current Hall of Fame standards. This is already happening with starting pitchers in the current environment.

You show the me the Wade Boggs, Rod Carew, Tony Gwynn, Pete Rose, Ozzie Smith, Paul Molitor, Willie McGee, Will Clark, Ichiro,……type hitters in todays game and then talk to me about 1mph increase in Velo the last decade. Most of these K’s are because of the hitters approach and nothing to do with Super Men Pitchers.

Those guys would be licking their chops at all those fastballs being fed to them, even with the uptick.

Those who think Ichiro, Gwynn, etc wouldn’t be able to adjust to the modern game are out of their minds. Their numbers would be even better.

[zuck698]

It's no secret that as velocity has increased in the game, so have the strikeouts and struggles of older players. It has been jarring to witness how quickly Arenado and Goldschmidt fell off. They follow a trend around the league. It makes the 5 year contracts of Schwarber and Alonso seem questionable. Here's some comparison between the 2015 and 2025 seasons for reference to the game's changes.

Average Fastball Velo
2015 93.3
2025 94.3

K/9
2015 7.76
2025 8.49 (This is actually down a bit from where it has been the last couple years)

Average age of Qualified hitters who were top 50 in wRC+
2015 29.5
2025 28.5

Qualified hitters age 34+ who were top 50 in wRC+
2015 7 (Oldest was 39)
2025 2 (Both were 35)

Qualified hitters age 34+ with wRC+ of 100 or higher
2015 10
2025 6


Unless MLB institutes some rule changes that help subdue the velocity (and injuries) pitchers are chasing, then we will likely see the end of hitters receiving contracts that go deep into their 30s. Another effect will be career counting numbers that fall short of current Hall of Fame standards. This is already happening with starting pitchers in the current environment.

You show the me the Wade Boggs, Rod Carew, Tony Gwynn, Pete Rose, Ozzie Smith, Paul Molitor, Willie McGee, Will Clark, Ichiro,……type hitters in todays game and then talk to me about 1mph increase in Velo the last decade. Most of these K’s are because of the hitters approach and nothing to do with Super Men Pitchers.

I hear you. The game was much more entertaining then. But velocity has increased a lot more than 1 mph since those guys played. It’s disappointing we won’t see as many hitters chasing 3000 hits like we used to.

Chicks love the long ball is a major reason for this, more so, than a couple of ticks of velocity. Even the "power" hitters of the old days, would cut down their swing with 2 strikes and try to go the other way or put the ball in play. Most players, sadly, do not attempt this any more, because singles don't pay the rent.

[BrockFloodMaris]

It's no secret that as velocity has increased in the game, so have the strikeouts and struggles of older players. It has been jarring to witness how quickly Arenado and Goldschmidt fell off. They follow a trend around the league. It makes the 5 year contracts of Schwarber and Alonso seem questionable. Here's some comparison between the 2015 and 2025 seasons for reference to the game's changes.

Average Fastball Velo
2015 93.3
2025 94.3

K/9
2015 7.76
2025 8.49 (This is actually down a bit from where it has been the last couple years)

Average age of Qualified hitters who were top 50 in wRC+
2015 29.5
2025 28.5

Qualified hitters age 34+ who were top 50 in wRC+
2015 7 (Oldest was 39)
2025 2 (Both were 35)

Qualified hitters age 34+ with wRC+ of 100 or higher
2015 10
2025 6


Unless MLB institutes some rule changes that help subdue the velocity (and injuries) pitchers are chasing, then we will likely see the end of hitters receiving contracts that go deep into their 30s. Another effect will be career counting numbers that fall short of current Hall of Fame standards. This is already happening with starting pitchers in the current environment.

With all the pitchers losing seasons to TJ, the long contracts and high AAV that starters are receiving, I would consider them to be the highest signing risk.

[scoutyjones2]

I'm not seeing your correlation.

It's not supported by anything you posted

As pitching velocity has increased, there are fewer older hitters producing at elite or above average levels. Therefore paying free agents big money deep into their 30s with expectations that they will remain elite is more risky now than it used to be.

Again, nothing you stated, supports that

Kyle Schwarber keeps getting better, Harpers been just fine..Ohtahni, Judge .

[Galatians221jb1]

The idea of swinging for the fences against 98 mph pitching is beyond dumb. If they can’t pull it they don’t swing. This is why Donovan is so coveted. He’s an old school hitter. Hits to all fields and is aggressive on early strikes. Not many intelligent hitters in the game anymore. Goldy and Arenado had to cheat to catch up
To a fastball.

[Goldfan]

It's no secret that as velocity has increased in the game, so have the strikeouts and struggles of older players. It has been jarring to witness how quickly Arenado and Goldschmidt fell off. They follow a trend around the league. It makes the 5 year contracts of Schwarber and Alonso seem questionable. Here's some comparison between the 2015 and 2025 seasons for reference to the game's changes.

Average Fastball Velo
2015 93.3
2025 94.3

K/9
2015 7.76
2025 8.49 (This is actually down a bit from where it has been the last couple years)

Average age of Qualified hitters who were top 50 in wRC+
2015 29.5
2025 28.5

Qualified hitters age 34+ who were top 50 in wRC+
2015 7 (Oldest was 39)
2025 2 (Both were 35)

Qualified hitters age 34+ with wRC+ of 100 or higher
2015 10
2025 6


Unless MLB institutes some rule changes that help subdue the velocity (and injuries) pitchers are chasing, then we will likely see the end of hitters receiving contracts that go deep into their 30s. Another effect will be career counting numbers that fall short of current Hall of Fame standards. This is already happening with starting pitchers in the current environment.

You show the me the Wade Boggs, Rod Carew, Tony Gwynn, Pete Rose, Ozzie Smith, Paul Molitor, Willie McGee, Will Clark, Ichiro,……type hitters in todays game and then talk to me about 1mph increase in Velo the last decade. Most of these K’s are because of the hitters approach and nothing to do with Super Men Pitchers.

Those guys would be licking their chops at all those fastballs being fed to them, even with the uptick.

Those who think Ichiro, Gwynn, etc wouldn’t be able to adjust to the modern game are out of their minds. Their numbers would be even better.

The elite hitters have always said that speed wasn’t the issue…..they could hit it. Aside from the truly elite pitchers today, MOST….if they throw really hard have little control. You don’t think a Gwynn, Carew, Rose….couldn’t pick up all those “wicked” sliders coming out of their hand and end up 6-12in off plate

[pitchingandefense]

I'm not seeing your correlation.

It's not supported by anything you posted

As pitching velocity has increased, there are fewer older hitters producing at elite or above average levels. Therefore paying free agents big money deep into their 30s with expectations that they will remain elite is more risky now than it used to be.

Again, nothing you stated, supports that

Kyle Schwarber keeps getting better, Harpers been just fine..Ohtahni, Judge .

None of the players you listed have entered the age group of 34+ that I cited, so not sure what the eye roll is for.

In 2025, Freddie Freeman and George Springer were the only qualified hitters age 34+ who were top 50 hitters, and they were both 35.

In decades past there were plenty of 34+ age players who were among the league leaders. Guys who other posters have mentioned in this thread.

So we are seeing a trend where fewer hitters are remaining elite into their mid to late 30s. This is happening at the same time as rising pitch velocities.

[scoutyjones2]

I'm not seeing your correlation.

It's not supported by anything you posted

As pitching velocity has increased, there are fewer older hitters producing at elite or above average levels. Therefore paying free agents big money deep into their 30s with expectations that they will remain elite is more risky now than it used to be.

Again, nothing you stated, supports that

Kyle Schwarber keeps getting better, Harpers been just fine..Ohtahni, Judge .

None of the players you listed have entered the age group of 34+ that I cited, so not sure what the eye roll is for.

In 2025, Freddie Freeman and George Springer were the only qualified hitters age 34+ who were top 50 hitters, and they were both 35.

In decades past there were plenty of 34+ age players who were among the league leaders. Guys who other posters have mentioned in this thread.

So we are seeing a trend where fewer hitters are remaining elite into their mid to late 30s. This is happening at the same time as rising pitch velocities.

Arenado didn't fall of a cliff, he steadily fell. Same with Goldy
They both had their career year in 2022...that's the anomaly started in their early 30's

Title of the thread says into their mid 30's

[Olemiss540]

Now show the comparison of ERA+ by age in the same time period. Does the higher velocity prevalent in today's game have a similar effect with regards to aging or an opposite effect (since their velocity is higher)?