Cease to the BJs 7 years 210MM

[Alex Reyes Cy Young]

Cost of doing business. Good on the BJ’s.

[An Old Friend]

I know the cost of pitching is at a premium especially when you’re talking about a FA(just $$ no talent in exchange).
But.....there is no effing way I give Dylan Cease 7 years!!

He’s never missed a start and has 5 straight 200+ strikeout seasons.

[BrockFloodMaris]

Blue Jays To Sign Dylan Cease To Seven-Year Deal
By Darragh McDonald | November 26, 2025 at 5:17pm CDT

The Blue Jays are going to sign Dylan Cease, reports Jon Heyman of The New York Post. It’s a seven-year, $210MM deal.

Come on Super Slo Mo! He’s asleep at the wheel!

[Cusecards]

I know the cost of pitching is at a premium especially when you’re talking about a FA(just $$ no talent in exchange).
But.....there is no effing way I give Dylan Cease 7 years!!

He’s never missed a start and has 5 straight 200+ strikeout seasons.

Noted....opinions vary.

[ICCFIM2]

Pitcher A W-L 8-12 ERA 4.55 Starts 32 IP 168 WHIP 1.327
Pitcher B W-L 8-11 ERA 4.84 Starts 31 IP 169 WHIP 1.318
Pitcher C W-L 14-8 ERA 4.28 Starts 32 IP 180 WHIP 1.234

Three pitchers records in 2024. Pitcher A, Dylan Cease just received 7/$210M. Pitcher B, Miles Mikolas, is being run out of town. Pitcher C, Sonny Gray. FIP loves the SO of Cease and Gray, so both of their FIPs are a run or so better than Mikolas. But, the end results between Cease and Mikolas are almost exactly the same. Gray is slightly better than Cease because he throws a bit more innings per start. It is really hard to see the Cease contract ending well.

Spotrac had him at 7 years $26.5M or 6 years $29.5M. I guess that confirms the saying free agent contracts are always a year longer than the team wants them to be.

[mattmitchl44]

For his career, Cease's ERA (3.88) has been slightly worse than his FIP (3.67) or his xERA (3.66), and it was significantly worse last year (ERA 4.55; FIP 3.56; xERA 3.46).

So he's due some positive "regression to the mean" from last season at least.

If you get the Cease who produces a 3.50 or 3.60 ERA/FIP/xERA, makes 30 starts, and pitches 170+ innings, you're looking at a Top 20 SP in MLB who you could justify giving $30 million AAV, in particular if he helps take you deep in the postseason as well.

The question is going to be - with him being age 30 next year - how many more seasons of "prime Dylan Cease" will the Blue Jays get, and how many underwater years are there going to be at the back end of this deal?

This is exactly the kind of signing that some of us have been saying may make sense if you are in "win now" mode over the next few years (like Toronto is) but would make no sense for a rebuilding team like the Cardinals who are still 2-3 years away from being a serious contender.

[CCard]

Blue Jays To Sign Dylan Cease To Seven-Year Deal
By Darragh McDonald | November 26, 2025 at 5:17pm CDT

The Blue Jays are going to sign Dylan Cease, reports Jon Heyman of The New York Post. It’s a seven-year, $210MM deal.

Makes the BJ's stronger and weakens the Dodgers. Now, let's see where the Dodgers pivot to. You know they won't settle for average.

[Talkin' Baseball]

Blue Jays To Sign Dylan Cease To Seven-Year Deal
By Darragh McDonald | November 26, 2025 at 5:17pm CDT

The Blue Jays are going to sign Dylan Cease, reports Jon Heyman of The New York Post. It’s a seven-year, $210MM deal.

Makes the BJ's stronger and weakens the Dodgers. Now, let's see where the Dodgers pivot to. You know they won't settle for average.

I hadn't really heard any rumblings, but with the signing coming the day after the Sonny Gray trade, I wonder if they were in on Sonny and what kind of return they might have offered.

[moose-and-squirrel]

Pitcher A W-L 8-12 ERA 4.55 Starts 32 IP 168 WHIP 1.327
Pitcher B W-L 8-11 ERA 4.84 Starts 31 IP 169 WHIP 1.318
Pitcher C W-L 14-8 ERA 4.28 Starts 32 IP 180 WHIP 1.234

Three pitchers records in 2024. Pitcher A, Dylan Cease just received 7/$210M. Pitcher B, Miles Mikolas, is being run out of town. Pitcher C, Sonny Gray. FIP loves the SO of Cease and Gray, so both of their FIPs are a run or so better than Mikolas. But, the end results between Cease and Mikolas are almost exactly the same. Gray is slightly better than Cease because he throws a bit more innings per start. It is really hard to see the Cease contract ending well.

Spotrac had him at 7 years $26.5M or 6 years $29.5M. I guess that confirms the saying free agent contracts are always a year longer than the team wants them to be.

great post. nice perspective

[Dicktar2023]

We all know that you can put too much emphasis on pitch-to-contact and "eating innings" but isn't this going a little too far in the other direction? Yes, the guy gets Ks, but it would also be nice if your #1 starter could get you to the 6th inning.

[Dicktar2023]

For his career, Cease's ERA (3.88) has been slightly worse than his FIP (3.67) or his xERA (3.66), and it was significantly worse last year (ERA 4.55; FIP 3.56; xERA 3.46).

So he's due some positive "regression to the mean" from last season at least.

If you get the Cease who produces a 3.50 or 3.60 ERA/FIP/xERA, makes 30 starts, and pitches 170+ innings, you're looking at a Top 20 SP in MLB who you could justify giving $30 million AAV, in particular if he helps take you deep in the postseason as well.

The question is going to be - with him being age 30 next year - how many more seasons of "prime Dylan Cease" will the Blue Jays get, and how many underwater years are there going to be at the back end of this deal?

This is exactly the kind of signing that some of us have been saying may make sense if you are in "win now" mode over the next few years (like Toronto is) but would make no sense for a rebuilding team like the Cardinals who are still 2-3 years away from being a serious contender.

100% a "win-now" move and his Ks will look great in the post-season. But you've still got to make it to the playoffs. Next June, when it's the 2nd inning and Cease has walked the bases loaded again, they're going to spend some time wondering where that $30 mil is going IMO.

And there is certainly no doubt this contract is going to be a problem within the next few years.