Baseball America on Clarke & Fitts ( post trade article )

[cardstatman]

For 2 years of Sonny Gray,

• the Cardinals paid $55M to Gray (who delivered 7.4 fWAR which fangraphs values at $59M)
• lost the #45 overall pick of the 2024 draft (the Angels drafted Chris Cortez in that slot who is a 40+ prospect and #10 in their org)
• lost $0.5M in 2024 international signing bonus money
• gained Richard Fitts (183rd pitck of the 2021 draft; once a 50 rated prospect; another MLB ready #4 or #5 starter?)
• gained Bradon Clarke (148th pick of the 2024 draft; a 50 rated prospect now ranked as Cards #7 prospect)

I would call this Gray signing a good deal which I would do again.

The Cardinals were 38-22 in games started by Sonny Gray for a .633 winning percentage.

Sadly, the Cardinals were 123-141 in games not started by Sonny Gray for a .484 winning percentage.

And the Cardinals starting pitching is now ranked 4th worst in MLB (ahead of Rockies, White Sox, Padres) and their overall pitching is the 2nd worst in MLB ahead of the Rockies.

[Jatalk]

Two words: “When healthy”

When are those words not appropriate for a prospect pitcher?

When they don’t have a history of health issues

[renostl]

Originally, the Cards had Gray for $35M in 2026 and had a $30M option or $5M buyout for 2027. If the Cards picked up the option, Gray had an opt out for 2027.

The new agreement pays Gray $31M ($4M less) for 2026 and has a $30M mutual option or $10M buyout ($5M more) for 2027. Mutual options never happen so this is really a $41M / 1yr deal.

• Gray gets $1M more guaranteed and will be a FA next year.
• BOS gets one year of Gray for $21M but loses Fitts and Clarke.
• STL saves $15M in 2026 and $5M in 2027 and gets Fitts and Clarke but loses Gray.

I think everyone wins. Maybe some in Boston see an overpay but Gray is much better than Fitts.

Well explained.

Or the bill essentially came due early when they only paid SG $10 million
in 2024 and deferred it the rest until 2026 and '27, depending on how the
cash considerations/ PTBNL works out.

[hugeCardfan]

Two words: “When healthy”

When are those words not appropriate for a prospect pitcher?

When they don’t have a history of health issues

Pitchers don't have a history of health issues until they do. Pitching, by its very nature, is abusive to a healthy body.

[VegasVinny]

For 2 years of Sonny Gray,

• the Cardinals paid $55M to Gray (who delivered 7.4 fWAR which fangraphs values at $59M)
• lost the #45 overall pick of the 2024 draft (the Angels drafted Chris Cortez in that slot who is a 40+ prospect and #10 in their org)
• lost $0.5M in 2024 international signing bonus money
• gained Richard Fitts (183rd pitck of the 2021 draft; once a 50 rated prospect; another MLB ready #4 or #5 starter?)
• gained Bradon Clarke (148th pick of the 2024 draft; a 50 rated prospect now ranked as Cards #7 prospect)

I would call this Gray signing a good deal which I would do again.

The Cardinals were 38-22 in games started by Sonny Gray for a .633 winning percentage.

Sadly, the Cardinals were 123-141 in games not started by Sonny Gray for a .484 winning percentage.

And the Cardinals starting pitching is now ranked 4th worst in MLB (ahead of Rockies, White Sox, Padres) and their overall pitching is the 2nd worst in MLB ahead of the Rockies.

I was just getting ready to post something similar (although I forgot the $500k in international signing bonus money). So long as the Cards get something positive out of either Dick Fitts or Clarke - even if it’s marginal value - it’s a win.

Gray was very good for the Cardinals. He would’ve been a great #2 on a 2001-2015 team here.

[RunSup]

This is exactly what kind of trade the Cardinals need to make.
Sonny Gray was not going to help them accomplish anything this year and carried a huge price tag.
They weren’t going to get much back for Gray, so they might as well take risks on high potential pitching.
Of course they both have histories of injury. You don’t get high potential arms without flaws when you’re not giving up much.

yep
+1000000000

It's a new day....but I love the potential/upside with Clarke. Tanner Franklin and Clarke...from different sides of the Rubber/Mound.

As it seems every pitching prospect the Cardinals have acquired in recent trades has wound up injured, I'll just expect the same when reading health concerns for both pitchers coming from this trade.

That way I'll just be pleasantly surprised if Clarke's arm is sound and he is able to develop into an effective starter. Hope springs.

Fitts sounds like a back of the rotation JAG or a reliever. But the team has to have some arms that can actually throw innings in 2026. Stock up on a couple more.

The Cardinal acquisition strategy is like a poor man's version of the Dodgers approach. Except the Dodgers sign established major league pitchers with health concerns. They stock pile 10 pitchers who can start if healthy in any one season. In 2025, they hit critical mass of recovered arms by the off season.

[Carp4Cy]

For 2 years of Sonny Gray,

• the Cardinals paid $55M to Gray (who delivered 7.4 fWAR which fangraphs values at $59M)
• lost the #45 overall pick of the 2024 draft (the Angels drafted Chris Cortez in that slot who is a 40+ prospect and #10 in their org)
• lost $0.5M in 2024 international signing bonus money
• gained Richard Fitts (183rd pitck of the 2021 draft; once a 50 rated prospect; another MLB ready #4 or #5 starter?)
• gained Bradon Clarke (148th pick of the 2024 draft; a 50 rated prospect now ranked as Cards #7 prospect)

I would call this Gray signing a good deal which I would do again.

The Cardinals were 38-22 in games started by Sonny Gray for a .633 winning percentage.

Sadly, the Cardinals were 123-141 in games not started by Sonny Gray for a .484 winning percentage.

And the Cardinals starting pitching is now ranked 4th worst in MLB (ahead of Rockies, White Sox, Padres) and their overall pitching is the 2nd worst in MLB ahead of the Rockies.

If we had had 5 Sonny Grays, or heck even 3 of him, we would be a very good team last year.

[Jatalk]

Two words: “When healthy”

When are those words not appropriate for a prospect pitcher?

When they don’t have a history of health issues

Pitchers don't have a history of health issues until they do. Pitching, by its very nature, is abusive to a healthy body.

So Clark’s medical issues are normal? He is a gamble.

[hugeCardfan]

Two words: “When healthy”

When are those words not appropriate for a prospect pitcher?

When they don’t have a history of health issues

Pitchers don't have a history of health issues until they do. Pitching, by its very nature, is abusive to a healthy body.

So Clark’s medical issues are normal? He is a gamble.

Yes. As is virtually every prospect pitcher.

[RamFan08NY]

One article certainly does not make a consensus but I googled reviews of Sonny Gray trade

The early buzz by some in Boston is not good .. 'overpay by Boston

High cost for a "meh" year: Some commentators feel the Red Sox overpaid, giving up significant assets for a pitcher coming off what they describe as a "meh" year, though they acknowledge the upside.


As I said this is the first one I saw.. will keep looking and listening throughout the day on media 'take' on the trade.

The Sox are much closer to the "win now" mindset, so this, in a different way is just what the Cards did. Made a high risk high reward trade, betting on Gray to help them with the East . Thats why we're seeing so many draft grades giving both teams the same grade. Both teams accomplished what their goal was. Win-win with risks involved.