Alt History: Cardinals Extend Ace Sonny Gray Through 2028

[Lloyd Braun]

I had Gemini write what would have happened today with Sonny Gray, if Mozeliak wasn't stepping down as POBO until November 2026.

Cardinals Extend Ace Sonny Gray Through 2028

By Darin Gold, St. Louis Post-Dispatch

ST. LOUIS, MO — St. Louis Cardinals President of Baseball Operations John Mozeliak announced Tuesday that the club has agreed to a two-year contract extension with veteran starting pitcher Sonny Gray, securing his tenure through the 2028 season.

The deal, which tacks on guaranteed years for 2027 and 2028, is worth an estimated $45 million and includes a full, no-trade clause for all years of the extension. This new clause dramatically alters the flexibility the Cardinals would have had with Gray, who was originally signed through 2026 with a club option for 2027.

The extension is the boldest move Mozeliak has made since it was announced his plan to step down from the top executive role in November 2026, officially ushering in the tenure of Chaim Bloom. The decision instantly raises questions about the organization's commitment to a full "reset" and the dynamic between the outgoing and incoming front-office leadership.

Commitment to the Ace

Gray, who turned 36 last month, has proven to be a reliable starter the Cardinals needed since arriving last offseason. In his first two years wearing the Birds on the Bat, Gray has pitched 346.4 innings, compiling 404 strikeouts while maintaining a 3.90 combined ERA in a hitter-friendly division.

“When we acquired Sonny, we knew we were getting a true professional and an elite competitor,” Mozeliak told reporters during a morning press conference. “His ability to generate swing-and-miss has been exceptional, especially his 203 strikeouts in 2024, which ranked among the National League leaders. He is a workhorse, and ultimately, our model dictates that we augment our existing foundation with proven stability.”

The Cardinals acknowledged they had explored the trade market for Gray over the past two deadlines, given his high value and the team’s struggles to contend. However, Mozeliak framed the extension as a necessary rejection of a short-sighted approach.

“Look, we were approached by a number of clubs about Sonny, and we had to weigh the future value of the prospects against the present value of having an anchor in our rotation,” Mozeliak explained. “We looked at the options. When you talk about the quality of the return for a controllable starter, frankly, it didn't align with what we deemed prudent. For us, having a high-end, reliable arm through 2028 gives us the stability needed to allow our young hitters and prospects to mature at their own pace. Sometimes, the most exciting trade is the one you don’t make, and this extension solidifies the kind of veteran leadership we believe is essential.”

Industry Eyes Front Office Dynamic

While the Cardinals' faithful may applaud retaining a star pitcher, the timing of the deal—coming deep into Mozeliak’s lame-duck period and during an alleged pivot toward rebuilding—has perplexed many rival executives.

“It’s a head-scratcher,” noted one rival National League General Manager, speaking on the condition of anonymity. “If you’re St. Louis and you’re trying to restock the farm system before Bloom takes over, a 36-year-old high-salary starter with a no-trade clause is exactly the kind of piece you trade for premium talent. It feels like an outgoing executive wanting to leave behind a clean slate, but instead, he’s locking in salary for his successor.”

Former Boston Red Sox PBO Dave Dombrowski, now with the Philadelphia Phillies, offered a more diplomatic critique during a radio interview. “The Cardinals have their own way of doing business, but in today’s game, if you are truly resetting, you have to be opportunistic. Extending Gray, especially with that full no-trade, limits Chaim Bloom's optionality down the road. It suggests the front office is still grappling with whether they are buying or selling.”

The extension means that when Chaim Bloom officially takes over PBO duties in November 2026, he will inherit an additional $45 million commitment to a starting pitcher who will be 38 years old entering the 2028 season.

Arenado Trade Efforts Stalled

Further emphasizing the mixed messages, Mozeliak addressed the persistent trade rumors surrounding eight-time Gold Glove winner Nolan Arenado, confirming that efforts to find a trade partner for the star third baseman have not yielded results the club deems acceptable.

“The Nolan situation is challenging, as everyone knows,” Mozeliak said. “He holds the cards with the no-trade clause, and while there is dialogue, we haven't seen an offer that makes sense for the St. Louis Cardinals long-term. Frankly, I wouldn't be surprised at all if Nolan is standing at third base when we take the field on Opening Day next year. Until something truly comes to fruition, we are planning for him to be a part of this team.”

The Cardinals open the 2026 season with one of baseball's most respected, albeit aging, cores now further cemented by Gray's long-term deal, raising the stakes considerably for the final year of the Mozeliak era before the transition to Bloom.

[zuck698]

That sounds about right for Bow Tie.