Competing now vs. rebuilding are conflicting goals

[CorneliusWolfe]

I get it. Some here are reluctant to embrace a year of losing in 2026. No one likes it. But the sad reality is the state of the team right now can not be converted to competitive without either this rebuild or massive infusion of money. And that infusion would not be covered by revenues so don't hold your breath waiting for it.

I'm in the camp of being able to wait a year or two for the system to come together and create an organization that can compete year after year within reasonable spending constraints. If this team was competitive I believe the 3 mil fans would return and they could afford near a $200 mil salary structure. Which is enough IF the farm is delivering. But one short period where the farm is ranked high isn't enough. it needs to have a basis in scouting, development and coaching matching any team in baseball to compete with the Dodgers of this world.

As has been pointed out before, had the Cardinals made the right decision to go full rebuild back at the trading deadline in 2023, they'd presumably be somewhat farther along now. But they muddled along for two more years trying to "compete" and here we are.

Just because you keep pointing out your previously stated opinions and posting links to them doesn’t make them right.

And tell me in what ways did they “try to compete” the last few years? All I’ve seen were salary dumps, trading vets away for zero return (Robersse non-tendered today) Oli sticking around too long, the emergence of Alec Burleson as an everyday player, the worst outfield in MLB, no major acquisitions, and no playoffs. Do you really perceive that as going for it?

Preach C.W.! We haven't been competing at all! Just wrong moves and built in excuses for years and many here want to sign up for more of whatever Bill is spouting out! Dry powder, lack of tv revenue, hiring a manager and telling him not to worry about winning, we "don't want you pressured"! We have not been competing for years ,regardless how many times it has been said here we have. 2016 was the beginning. Sure we got some eye candy in Paul and Nolan at sweetheart deals to keep the fans' eyes busy, but a long way from competing! Welcome to the new Pittsburgh here in the Lou.

Glad to see there are still some out there that don’t embrace losing as much as Oli and Mo and buy every narrative the new STL Pirates spit out.

This is supposed to be a new era. How about we start it off by at least trying to get better? It’s pro sports and supposed to be entertaining. Watching a team on the rise can be entertaining too, but relying solely on prospects isn’t enough.

Every team will have down periods, but (bleep), this loser mentality, and perpetual hope in kids is ridiculous. I don’t care what Whitney Houston said…the children are not our future, just part of it. A puzzle has many pieces and it’s how you put them together that makes a good GM. Any idiot GM can assemble a [shirt]ty tank team and collect top draft picks but that is just lazy and boring.

[Quincy Varnish]

You can compete now by signing vets to one year deals.

No vet should be picked up by way of trading prospects, nor be the primary return for any of our trades (the exception would be an Arenado for Castellanos deal if Bloom can’t get anything for NA…).


This strategy is pro today and pro rebuild. If the team is out of it, you flip all the vets at the deadline…

No quality vet is going to take a one year deal…

Teoscar Hernandez
Jack Flaherty
Luis Severino
Jurickson Profar
Joc Peterson
Matthew Boyd

All signed one-year deals, post-2023

Blake Snell & Sean Manaea signed two-year deals with opt-outs after the first year

[CCard]

Some want to gloss over this fact as they push the narrative that the Cardinals should do both - compete now and rebuild the player development organization.

But those goals are in conflict, they are not complimentary.

They obviously conflict on the very important questions of:

- Should they trade Donovan?
- Should they trade Gray?
- Should they trade Contreras?
- Maybe even should they trade Arenado?

If they are competing the answer to most/all of those is no. If they are rebuilding it is yes. You can't have it both ways.

And also on the question of:

- Who should they potentially sign as FAs and why?

If they try to compete and rebuild simultaneously, the net result will much more likely be that they will do both poorly rather than do both (or either) well.

Tell that to the two decades of Cardinal excellence.
Why can't the Cards try to win while rebuilding some of their team? All it takes is a little money. Is that so outrageous that they should try to field a team that has a chance to get in the playoffs and win? I don't think so but apparently you do.

[11WSChamps]

My point is the organization doesn't and shouldn't have to resort to a scorched earth philosophy.

You may say we're not competing with the Reds and pirates of the world but it sure does look like it.

No it doesn’t. Come on.

Yes, it’s not been a good few years for the Cardinals, but there’s no comparison at all between them and those two teams. But all teams have down periods. No one likes it, but it happens. Look at the New England Patriots. They’ve been pretty bad for 5 years after an insane run.

Stuff happens in a decade or two of success. You lose some iconic players. You have some successful people within the front office leave. Your model gets outdated. Whatever. All kinds of things. And you have to recognize when it’s time to make a change. You could say that the Cardinals should have recognized that a year or two before last year, and I would agree with that. But either way, you need to accept that some things have gone wrong and be willing to make the change.

It might be rough for a bit, but you have to do it. That’s what the team is doing now. If you think that they’re never going to come back from this, never spend money like they did before, and model their organization after the Reds or Pirates, that’s fine and that’s your opinion. But where the evidence? The Cardinals have consistently been a draft and develop team that spends around top ten/top third in payroll. They’ve had a lot of success doing that. Why wouldn’t they go back to that?

Tell me we haven't been reduced to small market status?

There's no guarantee a foundation of enough cost controlled players are going to just come along.

Certainly hasn't happened for a lot of teams perpetually in baseball limbo.

Then there's certainly no guarantee that all of this supposed talent is going to come together for enough years to spend on plug in free agents before the young talent is no longer relatively cheap.

Sure I hope things come together in a couple of seasons when the team might extend payroll to plug the holes. But that's far from a given and if we're still inthe bottom half of this division in 3 years or so than where would be the difference?

[juan good eye]

If they try to compete and rebuild simultaneously, the net result will much more likely be that they will do both poorly rather than do both (or either) well.

That is the most important thing said in the OP.

Why do the fools not grasp this? Willfully ignorant I believe. These boomers just can’t let go of .500 baseball.

If the Cards trade their best assets that aren’t long term pieces for futures it increases the likelihood of strengthening the farm ie the future roster. When the time comes you’ll be glad they did or wished they had…

On the same note: If the Cards are willing to trade for players further away from MLB in proximity opposed to trading for young MLB players (proven commodities) the return should be higher end talent (more risk involved to a degree). Again, the likelihood of strengthening the farm ie the future roster, increases. I repeat, when the time comes you’ll be glad they did or wished they had…

Also, there was a lot of (bleep) among the BFIB when the Cards didn’t win 85 games each of the last couple seasons yet the same old men are celebrating both top 10 draft picks who are also the top Cards prospects. It’s not magic folks, there’s a formula. Don’t try to cheat like Mo, the FBI might be watching.

[mattmitchl44]

There's no guarantee a foundation of enough cost controlled players are going to just come along.

Certainly hasn't happened for a lot of teams perpetually in baseball limbo.

Then there's certainly no guarantee that all of this supposed talent is going to come together for enough years to spend on plug in free agents before the young talent is no longer relatively cheap.

Sure I hope things come together in a couple of seasons when the team might extend payroll to plug the holes. But that's far from a given and if we're still inthe bottom half of this division in 3 years or so than where would be the difference?

No plan can guarantee success. Certainly not banking your success principally on brute force spending when 10+ other teams can, and will, spend more than the Cardinals annually.

Suggesting "guarantees of success" is a strawman argument.

[AZ_Cardsfan]

I get it. Some here are reluctant to embrace a year of losing in 2026. No one likes it. But the sad reality is the state of the team right now can not be converted to competitive without either this rebuild or massive infusion of money. And that infusion would not be covered by revenues so don't hold your breath waiting for it.

I'm in the camp of being able to wait a year or two for the system to come together and create an organization that can compete year after year within reasonable spending constraints. If this team was competitive I believe the 3 mil fans would return and they could afford near a $200 mil salary structure. Which is enough IF the farm is delivering. But one short period where the farm is ranked high isn't enough. it needs to have a basis in scouting, development and coaching matching any team in baseball to compete with the Dodgers of this world.

I could live with a short rebuild window but I fear it will much longer and perhaps even a perpetual cycle.

Based on the state of the team NOW and the farm system NOW they are 1-2 years from fielding a team capable of winning the division and challenging in the playoffs if done right. IMO of course. I will also walk from them if this turns into a perpetual think ala Pittsburgh. And I think ownership and management of the team are very aware they have a short window to get this done.

2026 will suck from a competitive standpoint.
2027 should show signs of life and perhaps addition of premium talent to longer term contracts (if no work stoppage).
2028 needs to be all in again raising spending back to previous levels and if the fans return or the new contract increases sharing up to closer to $200 mil.

[11WSChamps]

There's no guarantee a foundation of enough cost controlled players are going to just come along.

Certainly hasn't happened for a lot of teams perpetually in baseball limbo.

Then there's certainly no guarantee that all of this supposed talent is going to come together for enough years to spend on plug in free agents before the young talent is no longer relatively cheap.

Sure I hope things come together in a couple of seasons when the team might extend payroll to plug the holes. But that's far from a given and if we're still inthe bottom half of this division in 3 years or so than where would be the difference?

No plan can guarantee success. Certainly not banking your success principally on brute force spending when 10+ other teams can, and will, spend more than the Cardinals annually.

Suggesting "guarantees of success" is a strawman argument.

Strawman argument?

And what you’re suggesting is a fool's errand.

If you don't have generational players or a way to get them then you're just fooling yourself.

[mattmitchl44]

There's no guarantee a foundation of enough cost controlled players are going to just come along.

Certainly hasn't happened for a lot of teams perpetually in baseball limbo.

Then there's certainly no guarantee that all of this supposed talent is going to come together for enough years to spend on plug in free agents before the young talent is no longer relatively cheap.

Sure I hope things come together in a couple of seasons when the team might extend payroll to plug the holes. But that's far from a given and if we're still inthe bottom half of this division in 3 years or so than where would be the difference?

No plan can guarantee success. Certainly not banking your success principally on brute force spending when 10+ other teams can, and will, spend more than the Cardinals annually.

Suggesting "guarantees of success" is a strawman argument.

Strawman argument?

And what you’re suggesting is a fool's errand.

If you don't have generational players or a way to get them then you're just fooling yourself.

There is no way for the Cardinals to have "generational players," or 3-4 All-Stars, etc. without having developed them (or most of them) internally. That is how they had Pujols and Molina in the 2000s and could build highly talented teams around them.

Without Pujols and Molina signed to well below market value contracts, the Cardinals never have the success they had from 2000-2015.

[Ronnie Dobbs]

Tell me we haven't been reduced to small market status?

There's no guarantee a foundation of enough cost controlled players are going to just come along.

Certainly hasn't happened for a lot of teams perpetually in baseball limbo.

Then there's certainly no guarantee that all of this supposed talent is going to come together for enough years to spend on plug in free agents before the young talent is no longer relatively cheap.

Sure I hope things come together in a couple of seasons when the team might extend payroll to plug the holes. But that's far from a given and if we're still inthe bottom half of this division in 3 years or so than where would be the difference?

We haven’t been reduced to small market status. Aside from one year (last year) we’ve had top 10 to top third payroll levels. Yes, payroll was reduced last year, and it will likely be reduced this year as well. That’s part of any rebuild. It started last year and may take a few years. Look at any rebuild, including big market teams, and you will see payroll reduced significantly. Less than our payroll last year.

Of course there’s no certainty. No one is saying there is. There is no certainty in anything, whether it is building a developmental system that can kick out players, or whether it’s spending $200+ million over 8 years on a pitcher in free agency. Look at the Mets last year. They spent about $350 million on payroll and won 83 games (5 more than us) and didn’t even make the playoffs.

But the Cardinals have said that they’re making a commitment to this rebuild right now. And they’re brining in a POBO and personnel from other organizations who have succeeded in exactly what we’re trying to do. I’m going to remain optimistic that this is going to get us where we are trying to go. Look at Milwaukee. They’re carrying payrolls in the bottom third and have never spent more than around $135 million, yet they’ve had success. And if you figure that we can do the same, plus get the payroll back up to the top ten to top third, we have more ammunition than them to spend on what we need to take us over the top.

And that’s why we’re not close to the Pirates or Reds and will never be. At least with this ownership. Because unlike those teams, and other small market teams, they’ve always kept a steady, competitive payroll.

[11WSChamps]

Tell me we haven't been reduced to small market status?

There's no guarantee a foundation of enough cost controlled players are going to just come along.

Certainly hasn't happened for a lot of teams perpetually in baseball limbo.

Then there's certainly no guarantee that all of this supposed talent is going to come together for enough years to spend on plug in free agents before the young talent is no longer relatively cheap.

Sure I hope things come together in a couple of seasons when the team might extend payroll to plug the holes. But that's far from a given and if we're still inthe bottom half of this division in 3 years or so than where would be the difference?

We haven’t been reduced to small market status. Aside from one year (last year) we’ve had top 10 to top third payroll levels. Yes, payroll was reduced last year, and it will likely be reduced this year as well. That’s part of any rebuild. It started last year and may take a few years. Look at any rebuild, including big market teams, and you will see payroll reduced significantly. Less than our payroll last year.

Of course there’s no certainty. No one is saying there is. There is no certainty in anything, whether it is building a developmental system that can kick out players, or whether it’s spending $200+ million over 8 years on a pitcher in free agency. Look at the Mets last year. They spent about $350 million on payroll and won 83 games (5 more than us) and didn’t even make the playoffs.

But the Cardinals have said that they’re making a commitment to this rebuild right now. And they’re brining in a POBO and personnel from other organizations who have succeeded in exactly what we’re trying to do. I’m going to remain optimistic that this is going to get us where we are trying to go. Look at Milwaukee. They’re carrying payrolls in the bottom third and have never spent more than around $135 million, yet they’ve had success. And if you figure that we can do the same, plus get the payroll back up to the top ten to top third, we have more ammunition than them to spend on what we need to take us over the top.

And that’s why we’re not close to the Pirates or Reds and will never be. At least with this ownership. Because unlike those teams, and other small market teams, they’ve always kept a steady, competitive payroll.

You're talking about the past.

You should be talking about now.

Who knows what payroll will wind up being in a couple of years. Another uncertainty right?

We finished behind the Reds last season and if the Pirates add a bat we could easily be looking up at them for the foreseeable future.

[11WSChamps]

There's no guarantee a foundation of enough cost controlled players are going to just come along.

Certainly hasn't happened for a lot of teams perpetually in baseball limbo.

Then there's certainly no guarantee that all of this supposed talent is going to come together for enough years to spend on plug in free agents before the young talent is no longer relatively cheap.

Sure I hope things come together in a couple of seasons when the team might extend payroll to plug the holes. But that's far from a given and if we're still inthe bottom half of this division in 3 years or so than where would be the difference?

No plan can guarantee success. Certainly not banking your success principally on brute force spending when 10+ other teams can, and will, spend more than the Cardinals annually.

Suggesting "guarantees of success" is a strawman argument.

Strawman argument?

And what you’re suggesting is a fool's errand.

If you don't have generational players or a way to get them then you're just fooling yourself.

There is no way for the Cardinals to have "generational players," or 3-4 All-Stars, etc. without having developed them (or most of them) internally. That is how they had Pujols and Molina in the 2000s and could build highly talented teams around them.

Without Pujols and Molina signed to well below market value contracts, the Cardinals never have the success they had from 2000-2015.

Without Edmonds, Rolen and Holliday among others they don't have that success either.

Pujoks was the lynch pin but let's don't pretend he went through a long development process. He only played 133 games in the minors and was the ultimate outlier as a 13th round draft pick.

[rockondlouie]

There's no guarantee a foundation of enough cost controlled players are going to just come along.

Certainly hasn't happened for a lot of teams perpetually in baseball limbo.

Then there's certainly no guarantee that all of this supposed talent is going to come together for enough years to spend on plug in free agents before the young talent is no longer relatively cheap.

Sure I hope things come together in a couple of seasons when the team might extend payroll to plug the holes. But that's far from a given and if we're still inthe bottom half of this division in 3 years or so than where would be the difference?

No plan can guarantee success. Certainly not banking your success principally on brute force spending when 10+ other teams can, and will, spend more than the Cardinals annually.

Suggesting "guarantees of success" is a strawman argument.

Strawman argument?

And what you’re suggesting is a fool's errand.

If you don't have generational players or a way to get them then you're just fooling yourself.

There is no way for the Cardinals to have "generational players," or 3-4 All-Stars, etc. without having developed them (or most of them) internally. That is how they had Pujols and Molina in the 2000s and could build highly talented teams around them.

Without Pujols and Molina signed to well below market value contracts, the Cardinals never have the success they had from 2000-2015.

Without Edmonds, Rolen and Holliday among others they don't have that success either.

Pujoks was the lynch pin but let's don't pretend he went through a long development process. He only played 133 games in the minors and was the ultimate outlier as a 13th round draft pick.

C. Carpenter too!

[Clubmaker2]

Thank goodness the cardinals will be the only team bidding and will win those premium players in 2027....counting on that seems against the odds. None of the other teams owners are aware of the new cba and possible salary cap?

[Bomber1]

If they try to compete and rebuild simultaneously, the net result will much more likely be that they will do both poorly rather than do both (or either) well.

That is the most important thing said in the OP.

Why do the fools not grasp this? Willfully ignorant I believe. These boomers just can’t let go of .500 baseball.

If the Cards trade their best assets that aren’t long term pieces for futures it increases the likelihood of strengthening the farm ie the future roster. When the time comes you’ll be glad they did or wished they had…

On the same note: If the Cards are willing to trade for players further away from MLB in proximity opposed to trading for young MLB players (proven commodities) the return should be higher end talent (more risk involved to a degree). Again, the likelihood of strengthening the farm ie the future roster, increases. I repeat, when the time comes you’ll be glad they did or wished they had…

Also, there was a lot of (bleep) among the BFIB when the Cards didn’t win 85 games each of the last couple seasons yet the same old men are celebrating both top 10 draft picks who are also the top Cards prospects. It’s not magic folks, there’s a formula. Don’t try to cheat like Mo, the FBI might be watching.

2 things -

1) [fork] off with the Boomer comments. There are plenty of young people who feel the same as those you disparage.

2. I’m a Boomer and the rest of your post makes sense.

[Clubmaker2]

Also, if a cap happens, it will have to be phased in down the road. say it is in 3 years, 2030. So, who is to say that in 2027, the really good players sign much bigger contracts with say the first 2 year front loaded ..which of course Cardinals will not pay. The cap is going to get you players that teams were not willing to pay for before hand.