Is The Contreras Contract Really Underwater?

[Talkin' Baseball]

Is the Willson Contreras contract really upside down? When people talk about the possibility of trading him, they usually refer to the money the Cardinals will have to eat. Baseball Trade Values pegs his trade value at -24.1. Willson is owed 18M this year and 18.5M next year. Am I to believe that to get his value up to zero, the Cardinals would have to absorb 12M this year and then again next year? No.

There is that conversation, and yet Josh Naylor just signed a 92.5M 5-year deal with the Mariners on the open market, or 18.5M per season. The Mariners are lauded for the “team friendly” deal they got Naylor on.

There isn’t that much difference in the production of the players.
WAR AB 2B HR RBI AVG OPS OPS+
Naylor 3.1 543 29 20 92 .295 .816 128
Contreras 2.5 490 31 20 80 .257 .791 123

Contreras put his numbers up in about 10% fewer at bats. Contreras is a plus defender, Naylor is not. The offensive numbers aren’t identical, but they are pretty darn similar. One is team friendly, the other is 24.1M underwater. Somebody please explain this to me.

[Strummer Jones]

No. And it never has been.

Willson's numbers before he signed a contract here and his numbers since signing here are pretty close to identical. In some respects, they're better. He's literally met any reasonable expectation that he could have had coming here.

He's even moved positions, and had little if any drop off offensively from that. Defensively, he looked like he'd been playing first for longer than he actually had. I was pleasantly surprised.

Mo made a lot of bad contract decisions. Contreras is turning out to be one of his better ones.

[NotAFathersDay9871]

A 2.5-3 WAR first basemen who plays acceptable defense and puts up an OPS around .800 every year costs about that much on the open market. Josh Naylor just got 18.5 million a year, coming off a 3.1 WAR season and an OPS of .816. Naylor's a bit more of a dynamic player, given that he stole 30 bases out of nowhere last season, but their offensive stat lines are similar:

Naylor: .295/.353/.462 / .816 OPS / 128 OPS+ / 3.1 WAR - $18.5 MM
Contreras: .257/.344/.447 / .791 OPS / 123 OPS+ 2.5 WAR - $17.5 MM

If Contreras was on the open market, I think it's certainly possible he would get a bit less AAV than his current contract, but I wouldn't see him getting less than 15 million a season.

I think it can be argued that he's a bit overpaid, but the contrast is negligible.

[Melville]

No, it is not.
In fact, when every other person without exception said it was an overpay when STL inked him, I immediately stated it would prove to be the the best value of any of the top end FA signings that year.
Obviously - and inevitably - I was correct

[billybaseball]

WAR is a terrible stat that pretends the two positions that touch the ball the most frequently defensive ability doesn't matter.

[Talkin' Baseball]

WAR is a terrible stat that pretends the two positions that touch the ball the most frequently defensive ability doesn't matter.

How about OPS+?

[cardstatman]

Yes, Baseball Trade Values is way off on Contreras.

He has delivered at least $18.3M in value in 8 of his 10 seasons including the past 5 in a row (averaging $23M per season).

Yet, BTV sees him delivering only 17.4M in value over the next 2 years combined (age 34 and 35).

That's amazingly pessimistic.

[Midrange Jay]

He is our best hitter. There is no free agent 1B that could replace his production at a cheaper price. The team only has $75 million of contracts committed, half of which come off the books next year with Gray. Unless there is a major league ready prospect coming back, it would be squandering one of our few assets.

[Cusecards]

I hope they keep Contreras.

[AZ_Cardsfan]

Contreras contract is price appropriate IMO. Neither a value nor a negative. And he is a good teammate and solid presence. If he was still a catcher he would represent a positive value but reality is he is now a 1B and a decent one at that.

Since I don't expect the 2026 team to contend I am OK if they trade him. And Gray (who is underwater), and Arenado (who is slightly underwater). But if they truly are rebuilding then they still need to spend some money to accelerate the process.

For example if they deal Contreras and save $18 mil they should spend that on 1-2 players on make good one year deals they can flip at the trade deadline for more prospects. Same with Gray/Arenado.

I know many here will mention past trades where the prospects didn't become stars. Yup. That is why they are prospects not sure things. The key to this rebuild is simple. Have so many prospects that enough will become stars you have a core to contend with. It's a numbers game.

From what I see Donovan should bring back a top 50 guy. If they deal the names above and Burleson they should add at least 3 guys who are top 30 in the Cardinals system. And if they sign 3 guys who they flip at the break and one is having a make good season say a starting pitcher with a sub 3.00 ERA and good SO/BB ratio they add more talent. If they add 6-7 players that become top 30 in their farm it will bode well for 2027 and beyond.

[ScotchMIrish]

Is the Willson Contreras contract really upside down? When people talk about the possibility of trading him, they usually refer to the money the Cardinals will have to eat. Baseball Trade Values pegs his trade value at -24.1. Willson is owed 18M this year and 18.5M next year. Am I to believe that to get his value up to zero, the Cardinals would have to absorb 12M this year and then again next year? No.

There is that conversation, and yet Josh Naylor just signed a 92.5M 5-year deal with the Mariners on the open market, or 18.5M per season. The Mariners are lauded for the “team friendly” deal they got Naylor on.

There isn’t that much difference in the production of the players.
WAR AB 2B HR RBI AVG OPS OPS+
Naylor 3.1 543 29 20 92 .295 .816 128
Contreras 2.5 490 31 20 80 .257 .791 123

Contreras put his numbers up in about 10% fewer at bats. Contreras is a plus defender, Naylor is not. The offensive numbers aren’t identical, but they are pretty darn similar. One is team friendly, the other is 24.1M underwater. Somebody please explain this to me.

His contract isn't upside down which is why he would bring good return. Hererra and Burleson put up similar numbers and fit perfectly at 1B/DH.

[ScotchMIrish]

He is our best hitter. There is no free agent 1B that could replace his production at a cheaper price. The team only has $75 million of contracts committed, half of which come off the books next year with Gray. Unless there is a major league ready prospect coming back, it would be squandering one of our few assets.

He isn't our best hitter. Hererra and Burleson hit for much higher average, same power and higher ops while striking out far fewer times. Move Contreras for a good prospect or a starting pitcher.

[Hoosier59]

He is our best hitter. There is no free agent 1B that could replace his production at a cheaper price. The team only has $75 million of contracts committed, half of which come off the books next year with Gray. Unless there is a major league ready prospect coming back, it would be squandering one of our few assets.

He isn't our best hitter. Hererra and Burleson hit for much higher average, same power and higher ops while striking out far fewer times. Move Contreras for a good prospect or a starting pitcher.

My thoughts exactly! The Cardinals shouldn’t have to pay down much at all if any to get a deal done with Willson, and with a good return. Don’t get me wrong, if the Cardinals were trying to compete, he’d be worth keeping, but they aren’t. So, he is a logical player to deal. Plus I feel that he has sorta worn out his welcome with the Manager and Ownership. I would also argue how much of a team leader he is! Sure he plays with a lot of passion and fire, but sometimes that is overdone, and not necessarily good for the team. Example, leaning in or just standing there to get hit by a pitch, and then calling out your teammates for retaliating! Just dumb!
For the right return, I’d trade him in a second!

[ScotchMIrish]

He is our best hitter. There is no free agent 1B that could replace his production at a cheaper price. The team only has $75 million of contracts committed, half of which come off the books next year with Gray. Unless there is a major league ready prospect coming back, it would be squandering one of our few assets.

He isn't our best hitter. Hererra and Burleson hit for much higher average, same power and higher ops while striking out far fewer times. Move Contreras for a good prospect or a starting pitcher.

My thoughts exactly! The Cardinals shouldn’t have to pay down much at all if any to get a deal done with Willson, and with a good return. Don’t get me wrong, if the Cardinals were trying to compete, he’d be worth keeping, but they aren’t. So, he is a logical player to deal. Plus I feel that he has sorta worn out his welcome with the Manager and Ownership. I would also argue how much of a team leader he is! Sure he plays with a lot of passion and fire, but sometimes that is overdone, and not necessarily good for the team. Example, leaning in or just standing there to get hit by a pitch, and then calling out your teammates for retaliating! Just dumb!
For the right return, I’d trade him in a second!

That plus all the drama when he whines about his teammates not retaliating when he deliberately gets hit by a pitch on the elbow pad. Bring in a new face or two.

[ecleme22]

He is our best hitter. There is no free agent 1B that could replace his production at a cheaper price. The team only has $75 million of contracts committed, half of which come off the books next year with Gray. Unless there is a major league ready prospect coming back, it would be squandering one of our few assets.

He isn't our best hitter. Hererra and Burleson hit for much higher average, same power and higher ops while striking out far fewer times. Move Contreras for a good prospect or a starting pitcher.

My thoughts exactly! The Cardinals shouldn’t have to pay down much at all if any to get a deal done with Willson, and with a good return. Don’t get me wrong, if the Cardinals were trying to compete, he’d be worth keeping, but they aren’t. So, he is a logical player to deal. Plus I feel that he has sorta worn out his welcome with the Manager and Ownership. I would also argue how much of a team leader he is! Sure he plays with a lot of passion and fire, but sometimes that is overdone, and not necessarily good for the team. Example, leaning in or just standing there to get hit by a pitch, and then calling out your teammates for retaliating! Just dumb!
For the right return, I’d trade him in a second!

That plus all the drama when he whines about his teammates not retaliating when he deliberately gets hit by a pitch on the elbow pad. Bring in a new face or two.

That one HBP really affected you.

Seek help.

[RamFan08NY]

He is our best hitter. There is no free agent 1B that could replace his production at a cheaper price. The team only has $75 million of contracts committed, half of which come off the books next year with Gray. Unless there is a major league ready prospect coming back, it would be squandering one of our few assets.

He isn't our best hitter. Hererra and Burleson hit for much higher average, same power and higher ops while striking out far fewer times. Move Contreras for a good prospect or a starting pitcher.

My thoughts exactly! The Cardinals shouldn’t have to pay down much at all if any to get a deal done with Willson, and with a good return. Don’t get me wrong, if the Cardinals were trying to compete, he’d be worth keeping, but they aren’t. So, he is a logical player to deal. Plus I feel that he has sorta worn out his welcome with the Manager and Ownership. I would also argue how much of a team leader he is! Sure he plays with a lot of passion and fire, but sometimes that is overdone, and not necessarily good for the team. Example, leaning in or just standing there to get hit by a pitch, and then calling out your teammates for retaliating! Just dumb!
For the right return, I’d trade him in a second!

That plus all the drama when he whines about his teammates not retaliating when he deliberately gets hit by a pitch on the elbow pad. Bring in a new face or two.

Wouldn't it be nice if the team had 3 or 4 other guys who had the same fire and passion to win that WC has?

Bob Gibson showed that passion and hes a competitor. Contreras shows it and hes a whiner?