One thing that crossed my mind about "top prospects"

[ecleme22]

Who calculates those team ratings?

Internal scouting
Who: Professional scouts employed by each MLB team. They assess players using a standardized scouting scale, with grades ranging from 20 to 80, and are responsible for the team's official prospect list.
How: Based on observable performance and data. Scouts grade players on a variety of tools (e.g., hitting, fielding, arm strength) and combine these to calculate an "Overall Future Potential" (OFP) score.
External rankings
Who: Media outlets like ESPN, FanGraphs, and Baseball America. These outlets often employ former front office executives and scouts to provide analysis. ESPN's Kiley McDaniel is an example of an analyst who provides these rankings.
How: Based on a combination of data and subjective evaluation. These outlets analyze a combination of scouting reports, advanced data, and their own expert opinions to create their rankings for the public, as explained by FanGraphs and Baseball America.

I would approach those prospect rating with healthy skepticism before I made a trade based upon that. Those ratings could be doctored to make a prospect appear to be more appealing than he is for the intended purpose of trading him for better return.

No team is making trades based on "external" ratings, whether from another team or a third party. Those third-party/outisde ratings are a source of independent information/evaluation, just like sell-side research reports are in public equity and debt markets. Sophisticated market participants (in baseball, finance, etc.) often consume third-party research as additional input, but they don't make decisions based on it, and they certainly don't rely on their potential counterparties' evaluations.

I suspect to some extent teams do rely on third party evaluations. When I see trade discussions I regularly see "so and so is the #... in the system".

I can't imagine a trade would be made without having some first hand information. I would think when it comes to the top 200 or so prospects in MLB, most teams have first hand information on every single one of these players. It will come through a combination of 1. They scouted the player before he was drafted. 2. Their minor league teams are playing against the player during the year. 3. They have recently scouted the player because they have an interest. They are employing people whose full time job is to know this information. It can't be that hard for 3 internal people to keep up with 65-70 players each.

Yes, the rest of us look at the milb top 30 prospect lists per team, the grades given on those sites and baseball trade value to propose trades that make sense. But you have to think with all the Donovan trade talk, the Cards have a list of 2-3 players they would want from each team they are talking to and it is not based on those public sites. It if is, then the Cards will never win...

That's true but a Cardinals employee went to prison for hacking Houston's computer to get information on prospects which would indicate we weren't entirely confident about our assessments.

If your implication is true, then it also suggests the Cards didn't trust how prospects were externally hyped.

True which is why they wanted Luhnow's internal data.

And none of this supports your op

[JuanAgosto]

John Mozeliak used a system that highly overvalued Cardinals prospects. He thought every decent player was going to be an All Star. He was either incredibly ignorant or just lied. Im guessing he preferred spreading [nonsense] hype so he could continue being lazy.

Sandy Alcantara - All-star
Zac Gallen - All-star
Randy Arozarena - All-star
Adolis Garcia - All-star
Brendan Donovan - All-star
Masyn Winn - probable future All-star?

Just sayin' - they have had their share of All-stars in the system in recent years. But, yeah, they haven't necessarily done a good job of knowing who to keep and who to trade.

Alcantara - Traded
Gallen - Traded
Arozarena - Traded
Garcia - Traded

None of those were All Stars in StL. Mozeliak foolishly traded them before they could flourish.

Yet we kept some real stallions like Hudson, Baker, and gave Motter two separate contracts. All because Mo couldn't tell the talent difference between Barry Bonds and Ryan Vilade.

[ScotchMIrish]

Who calculates those team ratings?

Internal scouting
Who: Professional scouts employed by each MLB team. They assess players using a standardized scouting scale, with grades ranging from 20 to 80, and are responsible for the team's official prospect list.
How: Based on observable performance and data. Scouts grade players on a variety of tools (e.g., hitting, fielding, arm strength) and combine these to calculate an "Overall Future Potential" (OFP) score.
External rankings
Who: Media outlets like ESPN, FanGraphs, and Baseball America. These outlets often employ former front office executives and scouts to provide analysis. ESPN's Kiley McDaniel is an example of an analyst who provides these rankings.
How: Based on a combination of data and subjective evaluation. These outlets analyze a combination of scouting reports, advanced data, and their own expert opinions to create their rankings for the public, as explained by FanGraphs and Baseball America.

I would approach those prospect rating with healthy skepticism before I made a trade based upon that. Those ratings could be doctored to make a prospect appear to be more appealing than he is for the intended purpose of trading him for better return.

No team is making trades based on "external" ratings, whether from another team or a third party. Those third-party/outisde ratings are a source of independent information/evaluation, just like sell-side research reports are in public equity and debt markets. Sophisticated market participants (in baseball, finance, etc.) often consume third-party research as additional input, but they don't make decisions based on it, and they certainly don't rely on their potential counterparties' evaluations.

I suspect to some extent teams do rely on third party evaluations. When I see trade discussions I regularly see "so and so is the #... in the system".

I can't imagine a trade would be made without having some first hand information. I would think when it comes to the top 200 or so prospects in MLB, most teams have first hand information on every single one of these players. It will come through a combination of 1. They scouted the player before he was drafted. 2. Their minor league teams are playing against the player during the year. 3. They have recently scouted the player because they have an interest. They are employing people whose full time job is to know this information. It can't be that hard for 3 internal people to keep up with 65-70 players each.

Yes, the rest of us look at the milb top 30 prospect lists per team, the grades given on those sites and baseball trade value to propose trades that make sense. But you have to think with all the Donovan trade talk, the Cards have a list of 2-3 players they would want from each team they are talking to and it is not based on those public sites. It if is, then the Cards will never win...

That's true but a Cardinals employee went to prison for hacking Houston's computer to get information on prospects which would indicate we weren't entirely confident about our assessments.

If your implication is true, then it also suggests the Cards didn't trust how prospects were externally hyped.

True which is why they wanted Luhnow's internal data.

And none of this supports your op

re-read my op.

[ecleme22]

Who calculates those team ratings?

Internal scouting
Who: Professional scouts employed by each MLB team. They assess players using a standardized scouting scale, with grades ranging from 20 to 80, and are responsible for the team's official prospect list.
How: Based on observable performance and data. Scouts grade players on a variety of tools (e.g., hitting, fielding, arm strength) and combine these to calculate an "Overall Future Potential" (OFP) score.
External rankings
Who: Media outlets like ESPN, FanGraphs, and Baseball America. These outlets often employ former front office executives and scouts to provide analysis. ESPN's Kiley McDaniel is an example of an analyst who provides these rankings.
How: Based on a combination of data and subjective evaluation. These outlets analyze a combination of scouting reports, advanced data, and their own expert opinions to create their rankings for the public, as explained by FanGraphs and Baseball America.

I would approach those prospect rating with healthy skepticism before I made a trade based upon that. Those ratings could be doctored to make a prospect appear to be more appealing than he is for the intended purpose of trading him for better return.

No team is making trades based on "external" ratings, whether from another team or a third party. Those third-party/outisde ratings are a source of independent information/evaluation, just like sell-side research reports are in public equity and debt markets. Sophisticated market participants (in baseball, finance, etc.) often consume third-party research as additional input, but they don't make decisions based on it, and they certainly don't rely on their potential counterparties' evaluations.

I suspect to some extent teams do rely on third party evaluations. When I see trade discussions I regularly see "so and so is the #... in the system".

I can't imagine a trade would be made without having some first hand information. I would think when it comes to the top 200 or so prospects in MLB, most teams have first hand information on every single one of these players. It will come through a combination of 1. They scouted the player before he was drafted. 2. Their minor league teams are playing against the player during the year. 3. They have recently scouted the player because they have an interest. They are employing people whose full time job is to know this information. It can't be that hard for 3 internal people to keep up with 65-70 players each.

Yes, the rest of us look at the milb top 30 prospect lists per team, the grades given on those sites and baseball trade value to propose trades that make sense. But you have to think with all the Donovan trade talk, the Cards have a list of 2-3 players they would want from each team they are talking to and it is not based on those public sites. It if is, then the Cards will never win...

That's true but a Cardinals employee went to prison for hacking Houston's computer to get information on prospects which would indicate we weren't entirely confident about our assessments.

If your implication is true, then it also suggests the Cards didn't trust how prospects were externally hyped.

True which is why they wanted Luhnow's internal data.

And none of this supports your op

re-read my op.

This thread was an opportunity to educate yourself.

You failed.

[ScotchMIrish]

John Mozeliak used a system that highly overvalued Cardinals prospects. He thought every decent player was going to be an All Star. He was either incredibly ignorant or just lied. Im guessing he preferred spreading [nonsense] hype so he could continue being lazy.

Sandy Alcantara - All-star
Zac Gallen - All-star
Randy Arozarena - All-star
Adolis Garcia - All-star
Brendan Donovan - All-star
Masyn Winn - probable future All-star?

Just sayin' - they have had their share of All-stars in the system in recent years. But, yeah, they haven't necessarily done a good job of knowing who to keep and who to trade.

Alcantara - Traded
Gallen - Traded
Arozarena - Traded
Garcia - Traded

None of those were All Stars in StL. Mozeliak foolishly traded them before they could flourish.

Yet we kept some real stallions like Hudson, Baker, and gave Motter two separate contracts. All because Mo couldn't tell the talent difference between Barry Bonds and Ryan Vilade.

Correct and that was because their internal evaluations were poor which is why they were spying on Luhnow in Houston.

[JuanAgosto]

John Mozeliak used a system that highly overvalued Cardinals prospects. He thought every decent player was going to be an All Star. He was either incredibly ignorant or just lied. Im guessing he preferred spreading [nonsense] hype so he could continue being lazy.

Sandy Alcantara - All-star
Zac Gallen - All-star
Randy Arozarena - All-star
Adolis Garcia - All-star
Brendan Donovan - All-star
Masyn Winn - probable future All-star?

Just sayin' - they have had their share of All-stars in the system in recent years. But, yeah, they haven't necessarily done a good job of knowing who to keep and who to trade.

Alcantara - Traded
Gallen - Traded
Arozarena - Traded
Garcia - Traded

None of those were All Stars in StL. Mozeliak foolishly traded them before they could flourish.

Yet we kept some real stallions like Hudson, Baker, and gave Motter two separate contracts. All because Mo couldn't tell the talent difference between Barry Bonds and Ryan Vilade.

Correct and that was because their internal evaluations were poor which is why they were spying on Luhnow in Houston.

I believe that. Mozeliak wasn't suited to do the job. Once Luhnow left the organization, Mo was exposed.

[Goldfan]

John Mozeliak used a system that highly overvalued Cardinals prospects. He thought every decent player was going to be an All Star. He was either incredibly ignorant or just lied. Im guessing he preferred spreading [nonsense] hype so he could continue being lazy.

Sandy Alcantara - All-star
Zac Gallen - All-star
Randy Arozarena - All-star
Adolis Garcia - All-star
Brendan Donovan - All-star
Masyn Winn - probable future All-star?

Just sayin' - they have had their share of All-stars in the system in recent years. But, yeah, they haven't necessarily done a good job of knowing who to keep and who to trade.

If you think about too hard at this point the head starts hurting…..this is the very definition of being clueless…..Cy Youngs and Allstars while KEEPING the Junk…..thats our MO

[ScotchMIrish]

John Mozeliak used a system that highly overvalued Cardinals prospects. He thought every decent player was going to be an All Star. He was either incredibly ignorant or just lied. Im guessing he preferred spreading [nonsense] hype so he could continue being lazy.

Sandy Alcantara - All-star
Zac Gallen - All-star
Randy Arozarena - All-star
Adolis Garcia - All-star
Brendan Donovan - All-star
Masyn Winn - probable future All-star?

Just sayin' - they have had their share of All-stars in the system in recent years. But, yeah, they haven't necessarily done a good job of knowing who to keep and who to trade.

Alcantara - Traded
Gallen - Traded
Arozarena - Traded
Garcia - Traded

None of those were All Stars in StL. Mozeliak foolishly traded them before they could flourish.

Yet we kept some real stallions like Hudson, Baker, and gave Motter two separate contracts. All because Mo couldn't tell the talent difference between Barry Bonds and Ryan Vilade.

Correct and that was because their internal evaluations were poor which is why they were spying on Luhnow in Houston.

I believe that. Mozeliak wasn't suited to do the job. Once Luhnow left the organization, Mo was exposed.

That appears to be the case. I thought Luhnow got a raw deal in the sign stealing fiasco. Manfred didn't want to fight the union so instead of going after the players involved he went after Luhnow who knew nothing about it.

[JuanAgosto]

John Mozeliak used a system that highly overvalued Cardinals prospects. He thought every decent player was going to be an All Star. He was either incredibly ignorant or just lied. Im guessing he preferred spreading [nonsense] hype so he could continue being lazy.

Sandy Alcantara - All-star
Zac Gallen - All-star
Randy Arozarena - All-star
Adolis Garcia - All-star
Brendan Donovan - All-star
Masyn Winn - probable future All-star?

Just sayin' - they have had their share of All-stars in the system in recent years. But, yeah, they haven't necessarily done a good job of knowing who to keep and who to trade.

Alcantara - Traded
Gallen - Traded
Arozarena - Traded
Garcia - Traded

None of those were All Stars in StL. Mozeliak foolishly traded them before they could flourish.

Yet we kept some real stallions like Hudson, Baker, and gave Motter two separate contracts. All because Mo couldn't tell the talent difference between Barry Bonds and Ryan Vilade.

Correct and that was because their internal evaluations were poor which is why they were spying on Luhnow in Houston.

I believe that. Mozeliak wasn't suited to do the job. Once Luhnow left the organization, Mo was exposed.

That appears to be the case. I thought Luhnow got a raw deal in the sign stealing fiasco. Manfred didn't want to fight the union so instead of going after the players involved he went after Luhnow who knew nothing about it.

Manfred is a fool. He and Mozeliak probably get along well.

[ScotchMIrish]

John Mozeliak used a system that highly overvalued Cardinals prospects. He thought every decent player was going to be an All Star. He was either incredibly ignorant or just lied. Im guessing he preferred spreading [nonsense] hype so he could continue being lazy.

Sandy Alcantara - All-star
Zac Gallen - All-star
Randy Arozarena - All-star
Adolis Garcia - All-star
Brendan Donovan - All-star
Masyn Winn - probable future All-star?

Just sayin' - they have had their share of All-stars in the system in recent years. But, yeah, they haven't necessarily done a good job of knowing who to keep and who to trade.

Alcantara - Traded
Gallen - Traded
Arozarena - Traded
Garcia - Traded

None of those were All Stars in StL. Mozeliak foolishly traded them before they could flourish.

Yet we kept some real stallions like Hudson, Baker, and gave Motter two separate contracts. All because Mo couldn't tell the talent difference between Barry Bonds and Ryan Vilade.

Correct and that was because their internal evaluations were poor which is why they were spying on Luhnow in Houston.

I believe that. Mozeliak wasn't suited to do the job. Once Luhnow left the organization, Mo was exposed.

That appears to be the case. I thought Luhnow got a raw deal in the sign stealing fiasco. Manfred didn't want to fight the union so instead of going after the players involved he went after Luhnow who knew nothing about it.

Manfred is a fool. He and Mozeliak probably get along well.

I'm surprised the small and mid market owners keep Manfred in place.

[Dan in PA]

Interesting. I thought Correa hacked into Luhnow's system because he was under the impression that Luhnow took proprietary information from the Cardinals to Houston with him. He went to jail because this is no excuse for hacking. And btw, he never used this as an excuse. He knew he did wrong and paid the price.

[AZ_Cardsfan]

There are so many scouts and so much tape and data it is impossible to fake a prospects ranking to hype him to another team. Just can not happen. That is the science.

But there is also an art to it. Some scouts are adept and recognizing a players numbers are due to reasons that won't translate to the majors. Those guys are worth gold to keep in your system. An example is when Walker was the #3 prospect it wasn't STL that ranked him there. It was the scouts and data miners of the systems that ranked him. STL does not rank their own players for outside examination. Neither do other teams as far as I am aware.

The issue is even the best scouts get it wrong. Jordan Walker was supposed to be a power hitting MOTO bat. Clearly to date he is not. Again this is why you want a farm system flush with prospects. Not filler. You never know who is going to emerge.

For example there was this slow chubby 3B guy drafted in the 13th round in the STL system who got a shot because the starter was injured in spring. 101 WAR and 703 HRs later he is retired waiting to be eligible to get voted first ballot into the HOF.

Ya never know.

[NYCardsFan]

Interesting. I thought Correa hacked into Luhnow's system because he was under the impression that Luhnow took proprietary information from the Cardinals to Houston with him. He went to jail because this is no excuse for hacking. And btw, he never used this as an excuse. He knew he did wrong and paid the price.

I think your recollection is correct. He believed Luhnow et al. had taken proprietary Cardinals' IP (data, algorithms, etc.) to Houston, and he sought to prove it by poking around in their systems to confirm his suspicions. In his view, his initial foray confirmed his belief, leading him to probe deeper for more evidence. As you state, he acknowledged that these "reasons" were not an excuse for hacking.

https://www.si.com/mlb/2018/10/04/chris ... -interview

[JuanAgosto]

John Mozeliak used a system that highly overvalued Cardinals prospects. He thought every decent player was going to be an All Star. He was either incredibly ignorant or just lied. Im guessing he preferred spreading [nonsense] hype so he could continue being lazy.

Sandy Alcantara - All-star
Zac Gallen - All-star
Randy Arozarena - All-star
Adolis Garcia - All-star
Brendan Donovan - All-star
Masyn Winn - probable future All-star?

Just sayin' - they have had their share of All-stars in the system in recent years. But, yeah, they haven't necessarily done a good job of knowing who to keep and who to trade.

Alcantara - Traded
Gallen - Traded
Arozarena - Traded
Garcia - Traded

None of those were All Stars in StL. Mozeliak foolishly traded them before they could flourish.

Yet we kept some real stallions like Hudson, Baker, and gave Motter two separate contracts. All because Mo couldn't tell the talent difference between Barry Bonds and Ryan Vilade.

Correct and that was because their internal evaluations were poor which is why they were spying on Luhnow in Houston.

I believe that. Mozeliak wasn't suited to do the job. Once Luhnow left the organization, Mo was exposed.

That appears to be the case. I thought Luhnow got a raw deal in the sign stealing fiasco. Manfred didn't want to fight the union so instead of going after the players involved he went after Luhnow who knew nothing about it.

Manfred is a fool. He and Mozeliak probably get along well.

I'm surprised the small and mid market owners keep Manfred in place.

You mean in place as in employed as commissioner?

[ScotchMIrish]

John Mozeliak used a system that highly overvalued Cardinals prospects. He thought every decent player was going to be an All Star. He was either incredibly ignorant or just lied. Im guessing he preferred spreading [nonsense] hype so he could continue being lazy.

Sandy Alcantara - All-star
Zac Gallen - All-star
Randy Arozarena - All-star
Adolis Garcia - All-star
Brendan Donovan - All-star
Masyn Winn - probable future All-star?

Just sayin' - they have had their share of All-stars in the system in recent years. But, yeah, they haven't necessarily done a good job of knowing who to keep and who to trade.

Alcantara - Traded
Gallen - Traded
Arozarena - Traded
Garcia - Traded

None of those were All Stars in StL. Mozeliak foolishly traded them before they could flourish.

Yet we kept some real stallions like Hudson, Baker, and gave Motter two separate contracts. All because Mo couldn't tell the talent difference between Barry Bonds and Ryan Vilade.

Correct and that was because their internal evaluations were poor which is why they were spying on Luhnow in Houston.

I believe that. Mozeliak wasn't suited to do the job. Once Luhnow left the organization, Mo was exposed.

That appears to be the case. I thought Luhnow got a raw deal in the sign stealing fiasco. Manfred didn't want to fight the union so instead of going after the players involved he went after Luhnow who knew nothing about it.

Manfred is a fool. He and Mozeliak probably get along well.

I'm surprised the small and mid market owners keep Manfred in place.

You mean in place as in employed as commissioner?

Correct. The owners hire and fire the commissioner.

[JuanAgosto]

John Mozeliak used a system that highly overvalued Cardinals prospects. He thought every decent player was going to be an All Star. He was either incredibly ignorant or just lied. Im guessing he preferred spreading [nonsense] hype so he could continue being lazy.

Sandy Alcantara - All-star
Zac Gallen - All-star
Randy Arozarena - All-star
Adolis Garcia - All-star
Brendan Donovan - All-star
Masyn Winn - probable future All-star?

Just sayin' - they have had their share of All-stars in the system in recent years. But, yeah, they haven't necessarily done a good job of knowing who to keep and who to trade.

Alcantara - Traded
Gallen - Traded
Arozarena - Traded
Garcia - Traded

None of those were All Stars in StL. Mozeliak foolishly traded them before they could flourish.

Yet we kept some real stallions like Hudson, Baker, and gave Motter two separate contracts. All because Mo couldn't tell the talent difference between Barry Bonds and Ryan Vilade.

Correct and that was because their internal evaluations were poor which is why they were spying on Luhnow in Houston.

I believe that. Mozeliak wasn't suited to do the job. Once Luhnow left the organization, Mo was exposed.

That appears to be the case. I thought Luhnow got a raw deal in the sign stealing fiasco. Manfred didn't want to fight the union so instead of going after the players involved he went after Luhnow who knew nothing about it.

Manfred is a fool. He and Mozeliak probably get along well.

I'm surprised the small and mid market owners keep Manfred in place.

You mean in place as in employed as commissioner?

Correct. The owners hire and fire the commissioner.

I've come to believe the large markets want to dominate and win. While the small markets just want to profit and be puds. Therefore the large markets make decisions and the small markets go along.