One thing that crossed my mind about "top prospects"

[NYCardsFan]

No different than NFL .. Teams don’t draft guys by ranking of Mel Kiper or Todd McShay …lol

That’s a good analogy. Though the MLB draft is even more uncertain and lacking in consensus beyond the handful of very top picks. Kiper, McShay, and others do tend to do pretty well with the first round, but after that . . .

[Melville]

Who calculates those team ratings?

Internal scouting
Who: Professional scouts employed by each MLB team. They assess players using a standardized scouting scale, with grades ranging from 20 to 80, and are responsible for the team's official prospect list.
How: Based on observable performance and data. Scouts grade players on a variety of tools (e.g., hitting, fielding, arm strength) and combine these to calculate an "Overall Future Potential" (OFP) score.
External rankings
Who: Media outlets like ESPN, FanGraphs, and Baseball America. These outlets often employ former front office executives and scouts to provide analysis. ESPN's Kiley McDaniel is an example of an analyst who provides these rankings.
How: Based on a combination of data and subjective evaluation. These outlets analyze a combination of scouting reports, advanced data, and their own expert opinions to create their rankings for the public, as explained by FanGraphs and Baseball America.

I would approach those prospect rating with healthy skepticism before I made a trade based upon that. Those ratings could be doctored to make a prospect appear to be more appealing than he is for the intended purpose of trading him for better return.

No team is making trades based on "external" ratings, whether from another team or a third party. Those third-party/outisde ratings are a source of independent information/evaluation, just like sell-side research reports are in public equity and debt markets. Sophisticated market participants (in baseball, finance, etc.) often consume third-party research as additional input, but they don't make decisions based on it, and they certainly don't rely on their potential counterparties' evaluations.

I suspect to some extent teams do rely on third party evaluations. When I see trade discussions I regularly see "so and so is the #... in the system".

All are true to some extent.
Yes, teams rely on their own analytics in evaluating both internal and external prospects.
Yes, teams and scouts do compare notes to an extent.
Yes, though primarily created for marketing purposes, rankings matter (particularly MOVEMENT in rankings).
But the foundational reality remains as it has ever been: there are no guarantees with any prospect (case in point, over the past few years Hence was wildly overvalued throughout baseball and I was the only person on the planet who correctly advised STL to trade him before that bubble burst).
So what should Mo do this off-season?
Target a quality starter and a quality RH hitting outfielder who have already shown success for a season or two at the MLB level and who still have 3 or more years of control remaining.
Easy.
Obvious.
Correct.

[Melville]

No different than NFL .. Teams don’t draft guys by ranking of Mel Kiper or Todd McShay …lol

Does MLB hold a combine?

Exactly.
And NFL team most certainly factor combine rankings to an extent.
Just as MLB teams consider their own metrics and rankings.
All elements are part of the process.

[ScotchMIrish]

Who calculates those team ratings?

Internal scouting
Who: Professional scouts employed by each MLB team. They assess players using a standardized scouting scale, with grades ranging from 20 to 80, and are responsible for the team's official prospect list.
How: Based on observable performance and data. Scouts grade players on a variety of tools (e.g., hitting, fielding, arm strength) and combine these to calculate an "Overall Future Potential" (OFP) score.
External rankings
Who: Media outlets like ESPN, FanGraphs, and Baseball America. These outlets often employ former front office executives and scouts to provide analysis. ESPN's Kiley McDaniel is an example of an analyst who provides these rankings.
How: Based on a combination of data and subjective evaluation. These outlets analyze a combination of scouting reports, advanced data, and their own expert opinions to create their rankings for the public, as explained by FanGraphs and Baseball America.

I would approach those prospect rating with healthy skepticism before I made a trade based upon that. Those ratings could be doctored to make a prospect appear to be more appealing than he is for the intended purpose of trading him for better return.

No team is making trades based on "external" ratings, whether from another team or a third party. Those third-party/outisde ratings are a source of independent information/evaluation, just like sell-side research reports are in public equity and debt markets. Sophisticated market participants (in baseball, finance, etc.) often consume third-party research as additional input, but they don't make decisions based on it, and they certainly don't rely on their potential counterparties' evaluations.

I suspect to some extent teams do rely on third party evaluations. When I see trade discussions I regularly see "so and so is the #... in the system".

All are true to some extent.
Yes, teams rely on their own analytics in evaluating both internal and external prospects.
Yes, teams and scouts do compare notes to an extent.
Yes, though primarily created for marketing purposes, rankings matter (particularly MOVEMENT in rankings).
But the foundational reality remains as it has ever been: there are no guarantees with any prospect (case in point, over the past few years Hence was wildly overvalued throughout baseball and I was the only person on the planet who correctly advised STL to trade him before that bubble burst).
So what should Mo do this off-season?
Target a quality starter and a quality RH hitting outfielder who have already shown success for a season or two at the MLB level and who still have 3 or more years of control remaining.
Easy.
Obvious.
Correct.

The point I was trying to make albeit poorly was I wouldn't trust other team or scout notes. It's akin to reading the financial page in the newspaper. The really good information that makes people billionaires isn't there.

[AZGOLF]

You guys are overthinking! The way you rate how good a prospect will turn out is if he has a smoking hot girlfriend!!

[ecleme22]

Who calculates those team ratings?

Internal scouting
Who: Professional scouts employed by each MLB team. They assess players using a standardized scouting scale, with grades ranging from 20 to 80, and are responsible for the team's official prospect list.
How: Based on observable performance and data. Scouts grade players on a variety of tools (e.g., hitting, fielding, arm strength) and combine these to calculate an "Overall Future Potential" (OFP) score.
External rankings
Who: Media outlets like ESPN, FanGraphs, and Baseball America. These outlets often employ former front office executives and scouts to provide analysis. ESPN's Kiley McDaniel is an example of an analyst who provides these rankings.
How: Based on a combination of data and subjective evaluation. These outlets analyze a combination of scouting reports, advanced data, and their own expert opinions to create their rankings for the public, as explained by FanGraphs and Baseball America.

I would approach those prospect rating with healthy skepticism before I made a trade based upon that. Those ratings could be doctored to make a prospect appear to be more appealing than he is for the intended purpose of trading him for better return.

No team is making trades based on "external" ratings, whether from another team or a third party. Those third-party/outisde ratings are a source of independent information/evaluation, just like sell-side research reports are in public equity and debt markets. Sophisticated market participants (in baseball, finance, etc.) often consume third-party research as additional input, but they don't make decisions based on it, and they certainly don't rely on their potential counterparties' evaluations.

I suspect to some extent teams do rely on third party evaluations. When I see trade discussions I regularly see "so and so is the #... in the system".

All are true to some extent.
Yes, teams rely on their own analytics in evaluating both internal and external prospects.
Yes, teams and scouts do compare notes to an extent.
Yes, though primarily created for marketing purposes, rankings matter (particularly MOVEMENT in rankings).
But the foundational reality remains as it has ever been: there are no guarantees with any prospect (case in point, over the past few years Hence was wildly overvalued throughout baseball and I was the only person on the planet who correctly advised STL to trade him before that bubble burst).
So what should Mo do this off-season?
Target a quality starter and a quality RH hitting outfielder who have already shown success for a season or two at the MLB level and who still have 3 or more years of control remaining.
Easy.
Obvious.
Correct.

The point I was trying to make albeit poorly was I wouldn't trust other team or scout notes. It's akin to reading the financial page in the newspaper. The really good information that makes people billionaires isn't there.

Organizations don’t do that. Especially good ones.

[Melville]

Who calculates those team ratings?

Internal scouting
Who: Professional scouts employed by each MLB team. They assess players using a standardized scouting scale, with grades ranging from 20 to 80, and are responsible for the team's official prospect list.
How: Based on observable performance and data. Scouts grade players on a variety of tools (e.g., hitting, fielding, arm strength) and combine these to calculate an "Overall Future Potential" (OFP) score.
External rankings
Who: Media outlets like ESPN, FanGraphs, and Baseball America. These outlets often employ former front office executives and scouts to provide analysis. ESPN's Kiley McDaniel is an example of an analyst who provides these rankings.
How: Based on a combination of data and subjective evaluation. These outlets analyze a combination of scouting reports, advanced data, and their own expert opinions to create their rankings for the public, as explained by FanGraphs and Baseball America.

I would approach those prospect rating with healthy skepticism before I made a trade based upon that. Those ratings could be doctored to make a prospect appear to be more appealing than he is for the intended purpose of trading him for better return.

No team is making trades based on "external" ratings, whether from another team or a third party. Those third-party/outisde ratings are a source of independent information/evaluation, just like sell-side research reports are in public equity and debt markets. Sophisticated market participants (in baseball, finance, etc.) often consume third-party research as additional input, but they don't make decisions based on it, and they certainly don't rely on their potential counterparties' evaluations.

I suspect to some extent teams do rely on third party evaluations. When I see trade discussions I regularly see "so and so is the #... in the system".

All are true to some extent.
Yes, teams rely on their own analytics in evaluating both internal and external prospects.
Yes, teams and scouts do compare notes to an extent.
Yes, though primarily created for marketing purposes, rankings matter (particularly MOVEMENT in rankings).
But the foundational reality remains as it has ever been: there are no guarantees with any prospect (case in point, over the past few years Hence was wildly overvalued throughout baseball and I was the only person on the planet who correctly advised STL to trade him before that bubble burst).
So what should Mo do this off-season?
Target a quality starter and a quality RH hitting outfielder who have already shown success for a season or two at the MLB level and who still have 3 or more years of control remaining.
Easy.
Obvious.
Correct.

The point I was trying to make albeit poorly was I wouldn't trust other team or scout notes. It's akin to reading the financial page in the newspaper. The really good information that makes people billionaires isn't there.

I think your point was well made.

[NYCardsFan]

You guys are overthinking! The way you rate how good a prospect will turn out is if he has a smoking hot girlfriend!!

Disclaimer: The video above is hosted on Youtube, and has not be reviewed by the staff of the Post-Dispatch.

[ilcubuffs]

What a perfectly imperfect system. You would think after losing $1.8B last year they would create something not so failure driven.

Only surprising aspect would be if they said the scouts were member of US Congress, weather people, or used car salesmen.

[juan good eye]

Who calculates those team ratings?

Internal scouting
Who: Professional scouts employed by each MLB team. They assess players using a standardized scouting scale, with grades ranging from 20 to 80, and are responsible for the team's official prospect list.
How: Based on observable performance and data. Scouts grade players on a variety of tools (e.g., hitting, fielding, arm strength) and combine these to calculate an "Overall Future Potential" (OFP) score.
External rankings
Who: Media outlets like ESPN, FanGraphs, and Baseball America. These outlets often employ former front office executives and scouts to provide analysis. ESPN's Kiley McDaniel is an example of an analyst who provides these rankings.
How: Based on a combination of data and subjective evaluation. These outlets analyze a combination of scouting reports, advanced data, and their own expert opinions to create their rankings for the public, as explained by FanGraphs and Baseball America.

I would approach those prospect rating with healthy skepticism before I made a trade based upon that. Those ratings could be doctored to make a prospect appear to be more appealing than he is for the intended purpose of trading him for better return.

Not to mention, internal scouts might have insider information about a prospect - injury risk, pain in shoulder, mental health, attitude, attention span and ability to learn, time spent at practice, hustle off the field, leadership/teammate qualities, etc that are never published. The prospect's coaches should always know more about a player they control than outside scouts can possibly garner from just watching on field performance.

Nice to see you both in the same thread

[JuanAgosto]

John Mozeliak used a system that highly overvalued Cardinals prospects. He thought every decent player was going to be an All Star. He was either incredibly ignorant or just lied. Im guessing he preferred spreading [nonsense] hype so he could continue being lazy.

[ICCFIM2]

Who calculates those team ratings?

Internal scouting
Who: Professional scouts employed by each MLB team. They assess players using a standardized scouting scale, with grades ranging from 20 to 80, and are responsible for the team's official prospect list.
How: Based on observable performance and data. Scouts grade players on a variety of tools (e.g., hitting, fielding, arm strength) and combine these to calculate an "Overall Future Potential" (OFP) score.
External rankings
Who: Media outlets like ESPN, FanGraphs, and Baseball America. These outlets often employ former front office executives and scouts to provide analysis. ESPN's Kiley McDaniel is an example of an analyst who provides these rankings.
How: Based on a combination of data and subjective evaluation. These outlets analyze a combination of scouting reports, advanced data, and their own expert opinions to create their rankings for the public, as explained by FanGraphs and Baseball America.

I would approach those prospect rating with healthy skepticism before I made a trade based upon that. Those ratings could be doctored to make a prospect appear to be more appealing than he is for the intended purpose of trading him for better return.

No team is making trades based on "external" ratings, whether from another team or a third party. Those third-party/outisde ratings are a source of independent information/evaluation, just like sell-side research reports are in public equity and debt markets. Sophisticated market participants (in baseball, finance, etc.) often consume third-party research as additional input, but they don't make decisions based on it, and they certainly don't rely on their potential counterparties' evaluations.

I suspect to some extent teams do rely on third party evaluations. When I see trade discussions I regularly see "so and so is the #... in the system".

I can't imagine a trade would be made without having some first hand information. I would think when it comes to the top 200 or so prospects in MLB, most teams have first hand information on every single one of these players. It will come through a combination of 1. They scouted the player before he was drafted. 2. Their minor league teams are playing against the player during the year. 3. They have recently scouted the player because they have an interest. They are employing people whose full time job is to know this information. It can't be that hard for 3 internal people to keep up with 65-70 players each.

Yes, the rest of us look at the milb top 30 prospect lists per team, the grades given on those sites and baseball trade value to propose trades that make sense. But you have to think with all the Donovan trade talk, the Cards have a list of 2-3 players they would want from each team they are talking to and it is not based on those public sites. It if is, then the Cards will never win...

[mattmitchl44]

John Mozeliak used a system that highly overvalued Cardinals prospects. He thought every decent player was going to be an All Star. He was either incredibly ignorant or just lied. Im guessing he preferred spreading [nonsense] hype so he could continue being lazy.

Sandy Alcantara - All-star
Zac Gallen - All-star
Randy Arozarena - All-star
Adolis Garcia - All-star
Brendan Donovan - All-star
Masyn Winn - probable future All-star?

Just sayin' - they have had their share of All-stars in the system in recent years. But, yeah, they haven't necessarily done a good job of knowing who to keep and who to trade.

[ScotchMIrish]

Who calculates those team ratings?

Internal scouting
Who: Professional scouts employed by each MLB team. They assess players using a standardized scouting scale, with grades ranging from 20 to 80, and are responsible for the team's official prospect list.
How: Based on observable performance and data. Scouts grade players on a variety of tools (e.g., hitting, fielding, arm strength) and combine these to calculate an "Overall Future Potential" (OFP) score.
External rankings
Who: Media outlets like ESPN, FanGraphs, and Baseball America. These outlets often employ former front office executives and scouts to provide analysis. ESPN's Kiley McDaniel is an example of an analyst who provides these rankings.
How: Based on a combination of data and subjective evaluation. These outlets analyze a combination of scouting reports, advanced data, and their own expert opinions to create their rankings for the public, as explained by FanGraphs and Baseball America.

I would approach those prospect rating with healthy skepticism before I made a trade based upon that. Those ratings could be doctored to make a prospect appear to be more appealing than he is for the intended purpose of trading him for better return.

No team is making trades based on "external" ratings, whether from another team or a third party. Those third-party/outisde ratings are a source of independent information/evaluation, just like sell-side research reports are in public equity and debt markets. Sophisticated market participants (in baseball, finance, etc.) often consume third-party research as additional input, but they don't make decisions based on it, and they certainly don't rely on their potential counterparties' evaluations.

I suspect to some extent teams do rely on third party evaluations. When I see trade discussions I regularly see "so and so is the #... in the system".

I can't imagine a trade would be made without having some first hand information. I would think when it comes to the top 200 or so prospects in MLB, most teams have first hand information on every single one of these players. It will come through a combination of 1. They scouted the player before he was drafted. 2. Their minor league teams are playing against the player during the year. 3. They have recently scouted the player because they have an interest. They are employing people whose full time job is to know this information. It can't be that hard for 3 internal people to keep up with 65-70 players each.

Yes, the rest of us look at the milb top 30 prospect lists per team, the grades given on those sites and baseball trade value to propose trades that make sense. But you have to think with all the Donovan trade talk, the Cards have a list of 2-3 players they would want from each team they are talking to and it is not based on those public sites. It if is, then the Cards will never win...

That's true but a Cardinals employee went to prison for hacking Houston's computer to get information on prospects which would indicate we weren't entirely confident about our assessments.

[ecleme22]

Who calculates those team ratings?

Internal scouting
Who: Professional scouts employed by each MLB team. They assess players using a standardized scouting scale, with grades ranging from 20 to 80, and are responsible for the team's official prospect list.
How: Based on observable performance and data. Scouts grade players on a variety of tools (e.g., hitting, fielding, arm strength) and combine these to calculate an "Overall Future Potential" (OFP) score.
External rankings
Who: Media outlets like ESPN, FanGraphs, and Baseball America. These outlets often employ former front office executives and scouts to provide analysis. ESPN's Kiley McDaniel is an example of an analyst who provides these rankings.
How: Based on a combination of data and subjective evaluation. These outlets analyze a combination of scouting reports, advanced data, and their own expert opinions to create their rankings for the public, as explained by FanGraphs and Baseball America.

I would approach those prospect rating with healthy skepticism before I made a trade based upon that. Those ratings could be doctored to make a prospect appear to be more appealing than he is for the intended purpose of trading him for better return.

No team is making trades based on "external" ratings, whether from another team or a third party. Those third-party/outisde ratings are a source of independent information/evaluation, just like sell-side research reports are in public equity and debt markets. Sophisticated market participants (in baseball, finance, etc.) often consume third-party research as additional input, but they don't make decisions based on it, and they certainly don't rely on their potential counterparties' evaluations.

I suspect to some extent teams do rely on third party evaluations. When I see trade discussions I regularly see "so and so is the #... in the system".

I can't imagine a trade would be made without having some first hand information. I would think when it comes to the top 200 or so prospects in MLB, most teams have first hand information on every single one of these players. It will come through a combination of 1. They scouted the player before he was drafted. 2. Their minor league teams are playing against the player during the year. 3. They have recently scouted the player because they have an interest. They are employing people whose full time job is to know this information. It can't be that hard for 3 internal people to keep up with 65-70 players each.

Yes, the rest of us look at the milb top 30 prospect lists per team, the grades given on those sites and baseball trade value to propose trades that make sense. But you have to think with all the Donovan trade talk, the Cards have a list of 2-3 players they would want from each team they are talking to and it is not based on those public sites. It if is, then the Cards will never win...

That's true but a Cardinals employee went to prison for hacking Houston's computer to get information on prospects which would indicate we weren't entirely confident about our assessments.

If your implication is true, then it also suggests the Cards didn't trust how prospects were externally hyped.

[ScotchMIrish]

Who calculates those team ratings?

Internal scouting
Who: Professional scouts employed by each MLB team. They assess players using a standardized scouting scale, with grades ranging from 20 to 80, and are responsible for the team's official prospect list.
How: Based on observable performance and data. Scouts grade players on a variety of tools (e.g., hitting, fielding, arm strength) and combine these to calculate an "Overall Future Potential" (OFP) score.
External rankings
Who: Media outlets like ESPN, FanGraphs, and Baseball America. These outlets often employ former front office executives and scouts to provide analysis. ESPN's Kiley McDaniel is an example of an analyst who provides these rankings.
How: Based on a combination of data and subjective evaluation. These outlets analyze a combination of scouting reports, advanced data, and their own expert opinions to create their rankings for the public, as explained by FanGraphs and Baseball America.

I would approach those prospect rating with healthy skepticism before I made a trade based upon that. Those ratings could be doctored to make a prospect appear to be more appealing than he is for the intended purpose of trading him for better return.

No team is making trades based on "external" ratings, whether from another team or a third party. Those third-party/outisde ratings are a source of independent information/evaluation, just like sell-side research reports are in public equity and debt markets. Sophisticated market participants (in baseball, finance, etc.) often consume third-party research as additional input, but they don't make decisions based on it, and they certainly don't rely on their potential counterparties' evaluations.

I suspect to some extent teams do rely on third party evaluations. When I see trade discussions I regularly see "so and so is the #... in the system".

I can't imagine a trade would be made without having some first hand information. I would think when it comes to the top 200 or so prospects in MLB, most teams have first hand information on every single one of these players. It will come through a combination of 1. They scouted the player before he was drafted. 2. Their minor league teams are playing against the player during the year. 3. They have recently scouted the player because they have an interest. They are employing people whose full time job is to know this information. It can't be that hard for 3 internal people to keep up with 65-70 players each.

Yes, the rest of us look at the milb top 30 prospect lists per team, the grades given on those sites and baseball trade value to propose trades that make sense. But you have to think with all the Donovan trade talk, the Cards have a list of 2-3 players they would want from each team they are talking to and it is not based on those public sites. It if is, then the Cards will never win...

That's true but a Cardinals employee went to prison for hacking Houston's computer to get information on prospects which would indicate we weren't entirely confident about our assessments.

If your implication is true, then it also suggests the Cards didn't trust how prospects were externally hyped.

True which is why they wanted Luhnow's internal data.