Rebuilding Checklist

[mattmitchl44]

This has been buried in other threads, but I'll give it its own airtime.

Here's is my checklist of when you'll know the Cardinals have amassed a critical mass of young talent (pre-ARB year and ARB year players) to be ready to think about adding by aggressively, but selectively, adding expensive talent from outside the organization to be able to compete with the Dodgers, etc. again.

1. a ~4 fWAR position player (i.e., borderline A-S) - M. Winn
2. a ~4 fWAR position player - ?
3. a ~3.5 to 4 fWAR starting pitcher (i.e., front of rotation SP) - ?

4. a 2+ fWAR position player (i.e., solid, league average player) - I. Herrera
5. a 2+ fWAR position player - A. Burleson
6. a 2+ fWAR position player - B. Donovan (unless traded)
7. a 2+ fWAR position player - ? (if V. Scott improves, he might slide into this spot)
8. a 2+ fWAR position player - ?
9. a 2+ fWAR SP (#4/#3 SP) - ? (if M. Liberatore improves, he will probably slide into this spot)
10. a 2+ fWAR SP - ?

11. a ML average bench player - ? (if T. Saggese improves he will probably slide into this spot)
12. a ML average bench player - ? (you could say P. Pages fills this)
13. a ML average bench player - ?
14. a ML average middle reliever - R. O'Brien if he builds on last year
15. a ML average middle reliever - G. Graceffo if he builds on last year (was better than his ERA)
16. a ML average middle reliever - M. Svanson
17. a ML average middle reliever - J. Romero (unless traded)
18. a ML average middle reliever - ? (maybe Pallante could move into this slot if he goes to the bullpen)

The most immediate hopes over the next couple of years would be:

JJ Wetherholt develops and fills slot (2.)
L. Doyle develops and fills slot (3.)
V. Scott improves and locks down slot (7.)
N. Gorman and/or J. Walker (or Nootbaar) turn it around and fill slot (8.) [and maybe they need to fill slot (6.) if Donovan is traded]
M. McGreevy develops and fills slot (10.)
and finding two or three more average bench players or middle relievers

So their timeline for when this "rebuild" will have been successful is likely determined by when Wetherholt and Doyle can make it to the majors and be those young, borderline A-S players needed at the top of this list.

But this is kind of the minimum that needs to happen for them to potentially assemble a roster 90, 92, 94 win talent that could really challenge the big market teams.

[sikeston bulldog2]

You have four empty question marks, two in the top three. That’s sums up your work.

We filled in numbers four through nine well.

Until you get that four W player we will muddle in mediocrity.

[mattmitchl44]

And to be clear, this is how you reliably get to 25-30 fWAR from these 18 pre-ARB/ARB players so that you can take the rest of your $170, $180 million payroll and try to go find 8 full market cost veterans to give you another 14-16 fWAR (at $8-$10 million per fWAR).

That will give you the talent to be in the low 90s in wins.

[sikeston bulldog2]

And to be clear, this is how you reliably get to 25-30 fWAR from these 18 pre-ARB/ARB players so that you can take the rest of your $170, $180 million payroll and try to go find 8 full market cost veterans to give you another 14-16 fWAR (at $8-$10 million per fWAR).

That will give you the talent to be in the low 90s in wins.

Ok the model is layed out. Does the pool of players respective to each catagory listed, exist to support this and every teams model.

Seems you need several pools to fish from, but all are ankle deep.

[mattmitchl44]

And to be clear, this is how you reliably get to 25-30 fWAR from these 18 pre-ARB/ARB players so that you can take the rest of your $170, $180 million payroll and try to go find 8 full market cost veterans to give you another 14-16 fWAR (at $8-$10 million per fWAR).

That will give you the talent to be in the low 90s in wins.

Ok the model is layed out. Does the pool of players respective to each catagory listed, exist to support this and every teams model.

Seems you need several pools to fish from, but all are ankle deep.

Right now I'm only concerned with the Cardinals pool.

The priorities this offseason are:

1. Use whatever trade equity they can generate by eating salary when they move Gray, Arenado, and maybe Contreras to obtain more ML-ready AA and AAA prospects who could be those 2+ fWAR players if the guys they have can't fill those slots.

and

2. Use Donovan's trade equity to obtain another ML-ready AA or AAA prospect who could be one of the ~4 fWAR players if Wetherholt or a Doyle don't pan out to be that good.

That's how the Cardinals fill up their pool as best they can to try to get to where they need to be by the end of 2027 or 2028.

[sikeston bulldog2]

And to be clear, this is how you reliably get to 25-30 fWAR from these 18 pre-ARB/ARB players so that you can take the rest of your $170, $180 million payroll and try to go find 8 full market cost veterans to give you another 14-16 fWAR (at $8-$10 million per fWAR).

That will give you the talent to be in the low 90s in wins.

Ok the model is layed out. Does the pool of players respective to each catagory listed, exist to support this and every teams model.

Seems you need several pools to fish from, but all are ankle deep.

Right now I'm only concerned with the Cardinals pool.

The priorities this offseason are:

1. Use whatever trade equity they can generate by eating salary when they move Gray, Arenado, and maybe Contreras to obtain more ML-ready AA and AAA prospects who could be those 2+ fWAR players if the guys they have can't fill those slots.

and

2. Use Donovan's trade equity to obtain another ML-ready AA or AAA prospect who could be one of the ~4 fWAR players if Wetherholt or a Doyle don't pan out to be that good.

Paragraph one- eat salary. In order to gain prospects. ML ready May be the issue there.

Two.

You’re putting a lot of stock in Donovan. And if JJ or Doyle don’t pan out, doesn’t that set us back even more than the prospects gained.

[mattmitchl44]

And to be clear, this is how you reliably get to 25-30 fWAR from these 18 pre-ARB/ARB players so that you can take the rest of your $170, $180 million payroll and try to go find 8 full market cost veterans to give you another 14-16 fWAR (at $8-$10 million per fWAR).

That will give you the talent to be in the low 90s in wins.

Ok the model is layed out. Does the pool of players respective to each catagory listed, exist to support this and every teams model.

Seems you need several pools to fish from, but all are ankle deep.

Right now I'm only concerned with the Cardinals pool.

The priorities this offseason are:

1. Use whatever trade equity they can generate by eating salary when they move Gray, Arenado, and maybe Contreras to obtain more ML-ready AA and AAA prospects who could be those 2+ fWAR players if the guys they have can't fill those slots.

and

2. Use Donovan's trade equity to obtain another ML-ready AA or AAA prospect who could be one of the ~4 fWAR players if Wetherholt or a Doyle don't pan out to be that good.

Paragraph one- eat salary. In order to gain prospects. ML ready May be the issue there.

Two.

You’re putting a lot of stock in Donovan. And if JJ or Doyle don’t pan out, doesn’t that set us back even more than the prospects gained.

Donovan has the most trade equity of anyone they are going to move. If anyone is going to bring back a higher level prospect it will be him. Maybe you have to package Romero or Gorman with him to get there, but you do that if you have to.

This isn't guaranteed to succeed, but it is the path that gives them the best chance to get to where they need to be.

[sikeston bulldog2]

And to be clear, this is how you reliably get to 25-30 fWAR from these 18 pre-ARB/ARB players so that you can take the rest of your $170, $180 million payroll and try to go find 8 full market cost veterans to give you another 14-16 fWAR (at $8-$10 million per fWAR).

That will give you the talent to be in the low 90s in wins.

Ok the model is layed out. Does the pool of players respective to each catagory listed, exist to support this and every teams model.

Seems you need several pools to fish from, but all are ankle deep.

Right now I'm only concerned with the Cardinals pool.

The priorities this offseason are:

1. Use whatever trade equity they can generate by eating salary when they move Gray, Arenado, and maybe Contreras to obtain more ML-ready AA and AAA prospects who could be those 2+ fWAR players if the guys they have can't fill those slots.

and

2. Use Donovan's trade equity to obtain another ML-ready AA or AAA prospect who could be one of the ~4 fWAR players if Wetherholt or a Doyle don't pan out to be that good.

Paragraph one- eat salary. In order to gain prospects. ML ready May be the issue there.

Two.

You’re putting a lot of stock in Donovan. And if JJ or Doyle don’t pan out, doesn’t that set us back even more than the prospects gained.

Donovan has the most trade equity of anyone they are going to move. If anyone is going to bring back a higher level prospect it will be him. Maybe you have to package Romero or Gorman with him to get there, but you do that if you have to.

This isn't guaranteed to succeed, but it is the path that gives them the best chance to get to where they need to be.

I’ve not seen it put forth in a line item format. Well done. I’ve noticed it’s been a focus on a couple threads.

You mention not guaranteed to succeed but then mention best chance. Doesn’t leave much for alternatives.

[Jatalk]

I wish I was smart enough to understand this.

[mattmitchl44]

And to be clear, this is how you reliably get to 25-30 fWAR from these 18 pre-ARB/ARB players so that you can take the rest of your $170, $180 million payroll and try to go find 8 full market cost veterans to give you another 14-16 fWAR (at $8-$10 million per fWAR).

That will give you the talent to be in the low 90s in wins.

Ok the model is layed out. Does the pool of players respective to each catagory listed, exist to support this and every teams model.

Seems you need several pools to fish from, but all are ankle deep.

Right now I'm only concerned with the Cardinals pool.

The priorities this offseason are:

1. Use whatever trade equity they can generate by eating salary when they move Gray, Arenado, and maybe Contreras to obtain more ML-ready AA and AAA prospects who could be those 2+ fWAR players if the guys they have can't fill those slots.

and

2. Use Donovan's trade equity to obtain another ML-ready AA or AAA prospect who could be one of the ~4 fWAR players if Wetherholt or a Doyle don't pan out to be that good.

Paragraph one- eat salary. In order to gain prospects. ML ready May be the issue there.

Two.

You’re putting a lot of stock in Donovan. And if JJ or Doyle don’t pan out, doesn’t that set us back even more than the prospects gained.

Donovan has the most trade equity of anyone they are going to move. If anyone is going to bring back a higher level prospect it will be him. Maybe you have to package Romero or Gorman with him to get there, but you do that if you have to.

This isn't guaranteed to succeed, but it is the path that gives them the best chance to get to where they need to be.

I’ve not seen it put forth in a line item format. Well done. I’ve noticed it’s been a focus on a couple threads.

You mention not guaranteed to succeed but then mention best chance. Doesn’t leave much for alternatives.

I've started to use this representation to show people that they are probably well underestimating to amount of young talent the Cardinals have to have.

Last year the Dodgers, Phillies, and Yankees all had 50 fWAR talent. The Brewers, Cubs, Mets, and Blue Jays had 45 fWAR talent. More teams were at or above 40.

If the Cardinals aren't up around 42, 43 at least, running the gauntlet through the postseason is like taking a knife to a gunfight.

[sikeston bulldog2]

And to be clear, this is how you reliably get to 25-30 fWAR from these 18 pre-ARB/ARB players so that you can take the rest of your $170, $180 million payroll and try to go find 8 full market cost veterans to give you another 14-16 fWAR (at $8-$10 million per fWAR).

That will give you the talent to be in the low 90s in wins.

Ok the model is layed out. Does the pool of players respective to each catagory listed, exist to support this and every teams model.

Seems you need several pools to fish from, but all are ankle deep.

Right now I'm only concerned with the Cardinals pool.

The priorities this offseason are:

1. Use whatever trade equity they can generate by eating salary when they move Gray, Arenado, and maybe Contreras to obtain more ML-ready AA and AAA prospects who could be those 2+ fWAR players if the guys they have can't fill those slots.

and

2. Use Donovan's trade equity to obtain another ML-ready AA or AAA prospect who could be one of the ~4 fWAR players if Wetherholt or a Doyle don't pan out to be that good.

Paragraph one- eat salary. In order to gain prospects. ML ready May be the issue there.

Two.

You’re putting a lot of stock in Donovan. And if JJ or Doyle don’t pan out, doesn’t that set us back even more than the prospects gained.

Donovan has the most trade equity of anyone they are going to move. If anyone is going to bring back a higher level prospect it will be him. Maybe you have to package Romero or Gorman with him to get there, but you do that if you have to.

This isn't guaranteed to succeed, but it is the path that gives them the best chance to get to where they need to be.

I’ve not seen it put forth in a line item format. Well done. I’ve noticed it’s been a focus on a couple threads.

You mention not guaranteed to succeed but then mention best chance. Doesn’t leave much for alternatives.

I've started to use this representation to show people that they are probably well underestimating to amount of young talent the Cardinals have to have.

Last year the Dodgers, Phillies, and Yankees all had 50 fWAR talent. The Brewers, Cubs, Mets, and Blue Jays had 45 fWAR talent. More teams were at or above 40.

If the Cardinals aren't up around 42, 43 at least, running the gauntlet through the postseason is like taking a knife to a gunfight.

I find it interesting. You did mention 8-10M per War. Is that a going rate.

[mattmitchl44]

And to be clear, this is how you reliably get to 25-30 fWAR from these 18 pre-ARB/ARB players so that you can take the rest of your $170, $180 million payroll and try to go find 8 full market cost veterans to give you another 14-16 fWAR (at $8-$10 million per fWAR).

That will give you the talent to be in the low 90s in wins.

Ok the model is layed out. Does the pool of players respective to each catagory listed, exist to support this and every teams model.

Seems you need several pools to fish from, but all are ankle deep.

Right now I'm only concerned with the Cardinals pool.

The priorities this offseason are:

1. Use whatever trade equity they can generate by eating salary when they move Gray, Arenado, and maybe Contreras to obtain more ML-ready AA and AAA prospects who could be those 2+ fWAR players if the guys they have can't fill those slots.

and

2. Use Donovan's trade equity to obtain another ML-ready AA or AAA prospect who could be one of the ~4 fWAR players if Wetherholt or a Doyle don't pan out to be that good.

Paragraph one- eat salary. In order to gain prospects. ML ready May be the issue there.

Two.

You’re putting a lot of stock in Donovan. And if JJ or Doyle don’t pan out, doesn’t that set us back even more than the prospects gained.

Donovan has the most trade equity of anyone they are going to move. If anyone is going to bring back a higher level prospect it will be him. Maybe you have to package Romero or Gorman with him to get there, but you do that if you have to.

This isn't guaranteed to succeed, but it is the path that gives them the best chance to get to where they need to be.

I’ve not seen it put forth in a line item format. Well done. I’ve noticed it’s been a focus on a couple threads.

You mention not guaranteed to succeed but then mention best chance. Doesn’t leave much for alternatives.

I've started to use this representation to show people that they are probably well underestimating to amount of young talent the Cardinals have to have.

Last year the Dodgers, Phillies, and Yankees all had 50 fWAR talent. The Brewers, Cubs, Mets, and Blue Jays had 45 fWAR talent. More teams were at or above 40.

If the Cardinals aren't up around 42, 43 at least, running the gauntlet through the postseason is like taking a knife to a gunfight.

I find it interesting. You did mention 8-10M per War. Is that a going rate.

That's the generally accepted average for what you will get when gambling on FAs. Some will work out better, some worse but overall everybody averages by paying about $8-10 million per fWAR they actually get out of them.

If you can put $120 million in payroll towards paying FAs you expect to get about 12-15 fWAR for it.

Not surprisingly, the people who tend to significantly underestimate how much young talent the Cardinals need also tend to significantly overestimate how much FA talent they can actually expect to buy with the money they can invest in them.

[sikeston bulldog2]

And to be clear, this is how you reliably get to 25-30 fWAR from these 18 pre-ARB/ARB players so that you can take the rest of your $170, $180 million payroll and try to go find 8 full market cost veterans to give you another 14-16 fWAR (at $8-$10 million per fWAR).

That will give you the talent to be in the low 90s in wins.

Ok the model is layed out. Does the pool of players respective to each catagory listed, exist to support this and every teams model.

Seems you need several pools to fish from, but all are ankle deep.

Right now I'm only concerned with the Cardinals pool.

The priorities this offseason are:

1. Use whatever trade equity they can generate by eating salary when they move Gray, Arenado, and maybe Contreras to obtain more ML-ready AA and AAA prospects who could be those 2+ fWAR players if the guys they have can't fill those slots.

and

2. Use Donovan's trade equity to obtain another ML-ready AA or AAA prospect who could be one of the ~4 fWAR players if Wetherholt or a Doyle don't pan out to be that good.

Paragraph one- eat salary. In order to gain prospects. ML ready May be the issue there.

Two.

You’re putting a lot of stock in Donovan. And if JJ or Doyle don’t pan out, doesn’t that set us back even more than the prospects gained.

Donovan has the most trade equity of anyone they are going to move. If anyone is going to bring back a higher level prospect it will be him. Maybe you have to package Romero or Gorman with him to get there, but you do that if you have to.

This isn't guaranteed to succeed, but it is the path that gives them the best chance to get to where they need to be.

I’ve not seen it put forth in a line item format. Well done. I’ve noticed it’s been a focus on a couple threads.

You mention not guaranteed to succeed but then mention best chance. Doesn’t leave much for alternatives.

I've started to use this representation to show people that they are probably well underestimating to amount of young talent the Cardinals have to have.

Last year the Dodgers, Phillies, and Yankees all had 50 fWAR talent. The Brewers, Cubs, Mets, and Blue Jays had 45 fWAR talent. More teams were at or above 40.

If the Cardinals aren't up around 42, 43 at least, running the gauntlet through the postseason is like taking a knife to a gunfight.

I find it interesting. You did mention 8-10M per War. Is that a going rate.

That's the generally accepted average for what you will get when gambling on FAs. Some will work out better, some worse but overall everybody averages by paying about $8-10 million per fWAR they actually get out of them.

Ok. The rate for an FA. What about a trade: is there a War attached or are we still at the above going rate.

[mattmitchl44]

And to be clear, this is how you reliably get to 25-30 fWAR from these 18 pre-ARB/ARB players so that you can take the rest of your $170, $180 million payroll and try to go find 8 full market cost veterans to give you another 14-16 fWAR (at $8-$10 million per fWAR).

That will give you the talent to be in the low 90s in wins.

Ok the model is layed out. Does the pool of players respective to each catagory listed, exist to support this and every teams model.

Seems you need several pools to fish from, but all are ankle deep.

Right now I'm only concerned with the Cardinals pool.

The priorities this offseason are:

1. Use whatever trade equity they can generate by eating salary when they move Gray, Arenado, and maybe Contreras to obtain more ML-ready AA and AAA prospects who could be those 2+ fWAR players if the guys they have can't fill those slots.

and

2. Use Donovan's trade equity to obtain another ML-ready AA or AAA prospect who could be one of the ~4 fWAR players if Wetherholt or a Doyle don't pan out to be that good.

Paragraph one- eat salary. In order to gain prospects. ML ready May be the issue there.

Two.

You’re putting a lot of stock in Donovan. And if JJ or Doyle don’t pan out, doesn’t that set us back even more than the prospects gained.

Donovan has the most trade equity of anyone they are going to move. If anyone is going to bring back a higher level prospect it will be him. Maybe you have to package Romero or Gorman with him to get there, but you do that if you have to.

This isn't guaranteed to succeed, but it is the path that gives them the best chance to get to where they need to be.

I’ve not seen it put forth in a line item format. Well done. I’ve noticed it’s been a focus on a couple threads.

You mention not guaranteed to succeed but then mention best chance. Doesn’t leave much for alternatives.

I've started to use this representation to show people that they are probably well underestimating to amount of young talent the Cardinals have to have.

Last year the Dodgers, Phillies, and Yankees all had 50 fWAR talent. The Brewers, Cubs, Mets, and Blue Jays had 45 fWAR talent. More teams were at or above 40.

If the Cardinals aren't up around 42, 43 at least, running the gauntlet through the postseason is like taking a knife to a gunfight.

I find it interesting. You did mention 8-10M per War. Is that a going rate.

That's the generally accepted average for what you will get when gambling on FAs. Some will work out better, some worse but overall everybody averages by paying about $8-10 million per fWAR they actually get out of them.

Ok. The rate for an FA. What about a trade: is there a War attached or are we still at the above going rate.

If you are trading for a guy who was signed as a FA and assume his contract, the $8-10 million per fWAR would apply. If you are trading for a younger cost controlled player you expect to do better than that.

[sikeston bulldog2]

And to be clear, this is how you reliably get to 25-30 fWAR from these 18 pre-ARB/ARB players so that you can take the rest of your $170, $180 million payroll and try to go find 8 full market cost veterans to give you another 14-16 fWAR (at $8-$10 million per fWAR).

That will give you the talent to be in the low 90s in wins.

Ok the model is layed out. Does the pool of players respective to each catagory listed, exist to support this and every teams model.

Seems you need several pools to fish from, but all are ankle deep.

Right now I'm only concerned with the Cardinals pool.

The priorities this offseason are:

1. Use whatever trade equity they can generate by eating salary when they move Gray, Arenado, and maybe Contreras to obtain more ML-ready AA and AAA prospects who could be those 2+ fWAR players if the guys they have can't fill those slots.

and

2. Use Donovan's trade equity to obtain another ML-ready AA or AAA prospect who could be one of the ~4 fWAR players if Wetherholt or a Doyle don't pan out to be that good.

Paragraph one- eat salary. In order to gain prospects. ML ready May be the issue there.

Two.

You’re putting a lot of stock in Donovan. And if JJ or Doyle don’t pan out, doesn’t that set us back even more than the prospects gained.

Donovan has the most trade equity of anyone they are going to move. If anyone is going to bring back a higher level prospect it will be him. Maybe you have to package Romero or Gorman with him to get there, but you do that if you have to.

This isn't guaranteed to succeed, but it is the path that gives them the best chance to get to where they need to be.

I’ve not seen it put forth in a line item format. Well done. I’ve noticed it’s been a focus on a couple threads.

You mention not guaranteed to succeed but then mention best chance. Doesn’t leave much for alternatives.

I've started to use this representation to show people that they are probably well underestimating to amount of young talent the Cardinals have to have.

Last year the Dodgers, Phillies, and Yankees all had 50 fWAR talent. The Brewers, Cubs, Mets, and Blue Jays had 45 fWAR talent. More teams were at or above 40.

If the Cardinals aren't up around 42, 43 at least, running the gauntlet through the postseason is like taking a knife to a gunfight.

I find it interesting. You did mention 8-10M per War. Is that a going rate.

That's the generally accepted average for what you will get when gambling on FAs. Some will work out better, some worse but overall everybody averages by paying about $8-10 million per fWAR they actually get out of them.

Ok. The rate for an FA. What about a trade: is there a War attached or are we still at the above going rate.

If you are trading for a guy who was signed as a FA and assume his contract, the $8-10 million per fWAR would apply. If you are trading for a younger cost controlled player you expect to do better than that.

Hey man thanx for your patience and time during my tutoring. Well done.

[2ninr]

There will still be people who resist this path and insist Bill is just cheap all we have to do is patch the holes now with free agents and we are gold.