To set the record straight

[CorneliusWolfe]

It seems like some of you guys intentionally miss the point of what is being said. The thread is on its fourth page and it's not even the first thread on the subject, so I doubt there is anything anyone can say that will help with the understanding.

Most of us understand the OP does indeed factor payroll as a significant variable to the master plan.

We argue the “eventually/after the new core is in-place” aspect of it all. We don’t assume it’s guaranteed to happen just because of quantity. We feel some core *might* can be added now through free agency and/or trades that incur more payroll and opportunity should never be ignored. A good plan is always dynamic and a good planner can make adjustments and improvise on the fly.

OP plan is fine and necessary for the foundational farm rebuild part of the plan, but no need for a single-tier approach, and many of us disagree with the premise that free agents should be avoided at all costs because we won’t be good for several years anyway. This is baseball and not as projectable as many other sports.

But you are right, there won’t really be any conclusiveness or new level of understanding from this discussion or the hundred others like it. Your threads are too hard because you have to know every single player and prospect from every system lol! (I mean that as a compliment, I do read them)

[WeeVikes]

If the Cardinals would merely do as I advise, we would not be having this conversation.
I alone correctly predicted the current malaise, the factors that made it inevitable, and the correct solutions.
Four very reasonable, very achievable course corrections over the past 5 years would have guaranteed a team capable of winning 90+ each season.
I have been right all along, and I am right now.
Is it acceptable for the owners to not spend 170 Million next year and every year?
It is not.
Does the team need to spend 300+M to be relevant?
Absolutely not.
Can they immediately compete by addressing just 2 positions?
Yes, they can.
85+ wins next year, and 90+ the years following, is ridiculously easy to achieve.
Now, the record is set straight.
Easy.
Obvious.
Correct.

Mel,

Yes, with a couple moves the Cardinals could be relevant again. No doubt.

What is you thought about the ability between the minors and international signing capability of maintaining sustainability of the org from a baseball standpoint? I think that is from where the bulk of the talent acquisition needs to come. From there, they can strategically fill needs from free agency — I.e. spend, but spend wisely. For me personally, I don’t want them to have a short window then fall off again. I really liked our recent long stretch of virtually always having the capability of contending.

Thank you, Sir.

You are, of course, completley correct.
I have come to expect nothing less.
Sustaining the self-renewing pipeline and spending as needed to maintain a baseline of quality veterans is unquestionably the correct model.
But here is where I differ from most.
I believe the organization already has the necessary competence with the domestic draft and international signings process.
That is not the issue now and has not been in the past.
Rather, there have been three constant issues going back several years.
One, the organization became a marketing company built around faded legacy players (a direct by-product of the MV3 years which revived the franchise 25 years ago) rather than a baseball team focused on winning.
I was the only person on the planet who understood it in real time and said so, but the idiotic reunion and extension of the Molina/Wainwright/Pujols career era was unbelievably stupid, incredibly short-sighted, utterly toxic to the entire organization, and inevitably doomed the franchise for several years following.
Perhaps the stupidest decision by any team in MLB over the past decade.
Had the team instead built around N/A and Goldschmidt with talent on the way up, rather than idiotically using those 2 to prop up the rocking chair years of the ME3, the organization would be in a much healthier condition right now.
Two, to repeat the brilliant phrase I coined long ago which perfectly encapsulated him, "when Mo falls in love he falls hard".
Simply put, the issue was not that the team could not draft or sign, it was that Mo was utterly incompetent at knowing who to trade and who to keep.
Time after time, I correctly advised trading the likes of DeJong, C. Martinez, Flaherty, The Paper Tyler, The Poser, Hence, Reyes, Lars The Human Sushi-baar, and others at precisely the time when their value was highest.
I also advised against the extension for Carpenter, Molina, Wainwright, Mikolas, the return of Pujols, and others - and was correct every time.
I was the only person on the planet who predicted Arozarena's imminent stardom, and I correctly advised having Kelly replace Molina, and I stated A. Garcia deserved a chance - and Mo missed badly with all three.
Bottom line: Mo repeatedly fell in love with the wrong guys and it blinded him to better choices.
Three, The Marmot and his staff have badly mismanaged so many young players over the past 4 seasons that it has stunted and paralyzed the team.
Incredible, and so very revealing, that he is still employed with the team.
Good news is, these 3 failure factors are very easily corrected.
We shall see if Bloom is up to the task.

Thank you, Mel. While I completely concur with your assessment and trust it can be done, I’ve become somewhat jaded over the past few seasons. I know Mo is out of the picture, however, having been born In Missouri I need them to show me…

[mattmitchl44]

Addressing your last point, the concern is “eventually” never comes. There’s always some reason (like no pitching lab) as to why our last wave of prospects didn’t work out. Maybe eventually the farm pays off, the odds say we’re due…to say the least. But that shouldn’t stop the team from attacking mediocrity from all directions.

As far as your other points, we’ve said all that can be said so we’ll have to just respectfully disagree.

On another note, I must commend the way you’ve managed this thread. You took the time to acknowledge and address and respectfully debate each point from numerous replies from various posters. Many start a [shirt] storm and disappear or ignore certain points in well thought out replies of others. There are several posters who should observe and take note.

Thanks.

And, yes, pulling together the critical mass of young talent that they need to compete may take much longer to achieve than any of us would like.

But I would say - when all other paths to being really competitive with the Dodgers, Phillies, Mets, etc. are impossible, the path that remains (the one I hope they are committed to staying on), no matter how improbable, must be the truth.

So you think Bloom will be able to construct a starting squad of Homegrowners???? What is the probability of that??

They realistically need about 10 pre-ARB/ARB guys who are at least 2+ fWAR starting position players, starting pitchers, or a proven closer. And they need maybe 3 of those 10 to be better, like 3-4 fWAR.

Right now they have:

- Winn in the higher 3-4 fWAR category, so that's 1 of 3
- Herrera, Burleson, Donovan (unless traded), maybe Liberatore, maybe Scott, so best case that's about 5 of 7

So they need to add a 3-4 fWAR SP (e.g., Doyle), a 3-4 fWAR position player (Wetherholt). They need to have those guys actually producing at the ML level.

Then they need both Liberatore and Scott to get a bit better. And they need to see a couple of other guys (maybe Crooks, maybe McGreevy, maybe Svanson becoming a proven closer, maybe guys they get in trades this year, maybe Nootbaar bouncing back, Gorman, Walker, etc.) get into that solidly 2+ fWAR range.

And they need to have about eight solid pre-ARB/ARB bench players/relief pitchers - Romero (unless traded), O'Brien, Leahy, Graceffo, Saggese, Pages. So they need to find a few bench players/relief pitchers too.

They are good six or seven players short - at least 3 "high value" players and 3 "lower value" players short of the foundation they need. And they need a couple of those "high value" players to be a step higher than just OK.

It's going to take work and patience to get there, but getting Wetherholt and Doyle to the majors and playing up to their high potentials would be a key start. They need those two to be HRs.

[Goldfan]

Addressing your last point, the concern is “eventually” never comes. There’s always some reason (like no pitching lab) as to why our last wave of prospects didn’t work out. Maybe eventually the farm pays off, the odds say we’re due…to say the least. But that shouldn’t stop the team from attacking mediocrity from all directions.

As far as your other points, we’ve said all that can be said so we’ll have to just respectfully disagree.

On another note, I must commend the way you’ve managed this thread. You took the time to acknowledge and address and respectfully debate each point from numerous replies from various posters. Many start a [shirt] storm and disappear or ignore certain points in well thought out replies of others. There are several posters who should observe and take note.

Thanks.

And, yes, pulling together the critical mass of young talent that they need to compete may take much longer to achieve than any of us would like.

But I would say - when all other paths to being really competitive with the Dodgers, Phillies, Mets, etc. are impossible, the path that remains (the one I hope they are committed to staying on), no matter how improbable, must be the truth.

So you think Bloom will be able to construct a starting squad of Homegrowners???? What is the probability of that??

They realistically need about 10 pre-ARB/ARB guys who are at least 2+ fWAR starting position players, starting pitchers, or a proven closer. And they need maybe 3 of those 10 to be better, like 3-4 fWAR.

Right now they have:

- Winn in the higher 3-4 fWAR category, so that's 1 of 3
- Herrera, Burleson, Donovan (unless traded), maybe Liberatore, maybe Scott, so best case that's about 5 of 7

So they need to add a 3-4 fWAR SP (e.g., Doyle), a 3-4 fWAR position player (Wetherholt). They need to have those guys actually producing at the ML level.

Then they need both Liberatore and Scott to get a bit better. And they need to see a couple of other guys (maybe Crooks, maybe McGreevy, maybe Svanson becoming a proven closer, maybe guys they get in trades this year, maybe Nootbaar bouncing back, Gorman, Walker, etc.) get into that solidly 2+ fWAR range.

And they need to have about eight solid pre-ARB/ARB bench players/relief pitchers - Romero (unless traded), O'Brien, Leahy, Graceffo, Saggese, Pages. So they need to find a few bench players/relief pitchers too.

They are good six or seven players short - at least 3 "high value" players and 3 "lower value" players short of the foundation they need. And they need a couple of those "high value" players to be a step higher than just OK.

I don’t live in the WAR world but I think we agree they’re missing true All-stars. Either in this thread or another I proposed the lineup for ‘26
And if they don’t add top FA’s this season then they will need to in 27,’28,’29….
You’re not getting to playoff land without the top talent…..
I’m laying out of plan where KNOWN top talent is brought in and your plan HOPES bloom can produce miracles from the farm
Now which one has a better chance of succeeding?
The payroll will be under 100mil if NA, Gray, Donny, Noot are traded. At some point it needed to normalize where it was if this has a chance of being a playoff team again….so why not not. Cards have 5-6 good players NOW NOW NOW…..not ‘29……in ‘26….
Complete the squad

[Dicktar2023]

They've already admitted than in recent years the short changed the player development side (like they should have had a pitching lab long before now, etc.) to put money into the ML team. Under Bloom they have to undo that and make their player development system top notch again. And they've specifically brough in Bloom, Cerfolio, etc. because they are expected to prioritize doing just that. And then they need to acquire more prospects for that new, top notch, player development system to work on.

It's on this issue that a lot of fans lose patience. If BDW was really so allergic to spending that he made Mo pick between the MLB roster and AAA, then why should we trust that he's going to be willing to spend money "when the time is right"?

If, on the other hand, that's not what really happened and just a cover story for Mo's incompetence, why should we trust this club to level with us about anything?

[Clubmaker2]

Yet no one said ..no former gms talking heads etc...how can the cardinals possibly spend this much money on salaries. Despite money not being spent on minors development. As if that was money moved from that to salaries. So where did all the money go?

[mattmitchl44]

They've already admitted than in recent years the short changed the player development side (like they should have had a pitching lab long before now, etc.) to put money into the ML team. Under Bloom they have to undo that and make their player development system top notch again. And they've specifically brough in Bloom, Cerfolio, etc. because they are expected to prioritize doing just that. And then they need to acquire more prospects for that new, top notch, player development system to work on.

It's on this issue that a lot of fans lose patience. If BDW was really so allergic to spending that he made Mo pick between the MLB roster and AAA, then why should we trust that he's going to be willing to spend money "when the time is right"?

If, on the other hand, that's not what really happened and just a cover story for Mo's incompetence, why should we trust this club to level with us about anything?

The less confident you are in ownership spending money on the ML payroll going forward, the more important prospects and player development become.

[Carp4Cy]

No need to change managers yet. Bloom probably couldn't get the guy he wants with the current roster. Give him time to build a stronger team. Then he will have a higher caliber of manager applicants.

The Manager and his coaching staff is WHO makes the roster stronger. And Oli isn't doing it. The young guys on the roster now don't have another year to wait and waste.

[Carp4Cy]

Addressing your last point, the concern is “eventually” never comes. There’s always some reason (like no pitching lab) as to why our last wave of prospects didn’t work out. Maybe eventually the farm pays off, the odds say we’re due…to say the least. But that shouldn’t stop the team from attacking mediocrity from all directions.

As far as your other points, we’ve said all that can be said so we’ll have to just respectfully disagree.

On another note, I must commend the way you’ve managed this thread. You took the time to acknowledge and address and respectfully debate each point from numerous replies from various posters. Many start a [shirt] storm and disappear or ignore certain points in well thought out replies of others. There are several posters who should observe and take note.

Thanks.

And, yes, pulling together the critical mass of young talent that they need to compete may take much longer to achieve than any of us would like.

But I would say - when all other paths to being really competitive with the Dodgers, Phillies, Mets, etc. are impossible, the path that remains (the one I hope they are committed to staying on), no matter how improbable, must be the truth.

So you think Bloom will be able to construct a starting squad of Homegrowners???? What is the probability of that??

They realistically need about 10 pre-ARB/ARB guys who are at least 2+ fWAR starting position players, starting pitchers, or a proven closer. And they need maybe 3 of those 10 to be better, like 3-4 fWAR.

Right now they have:

- Winn in the higher 3-4 fWAR category, so that's 1 of 3
- Herrera, Burleson, Donovan (unless traded), maybe Liberatore, maybe Scott, so best case that's about 5 of 7

So they need to add a 3-4 fWAR SP (e.g., Doyle), a 3-4 fWAR position player (Wetherholt). They need to have those guys actually producing at the ML level.

Then they need both Liberatore and Scott to get a bit better. And they need to see a couple of other guys (maybe Crooks, maybe McGreevy, maybe Svanson becoming a proven closer, maybe guys they get in trades this year, maybe Nootbaar bouncing back, Gorman, Walker, etc.) get into that solidly 2+ fWAR range.

And they need to have about eight solid pre-ARB/ARB bench players/relief pitchers - Romero (unless traded), O'Brien, Leahy, Graceffo, Saggese, Pages. So they need to find a few bench players/relief pitchers too.

They are good six or seven players short - at least 3 "high value" players and 3 "lower value" players short of the foundation they need. And they need a couple of those "high value" players to be a step higher than just OK.

It's going to take work and patience to get there, but getting Wetherholt and Doyle to the majors and playing up to their high potentials would be a key start. They need those two to be HRs.

Several of these things might have already been accomplished (or moved on to other options already) if we had the right manager. Oli is treading water with this roster and will continue to do so.

[CCard]

There continues to be a contingent on CT who wants to misrepresent what those of us who support the Cardinals current direction are saying. This contingent repeatedly tries to say that we who support the direction categorically "don't want the Cardinals to spend money."

I have not seen anyone who has said that the Cardinals will not eventually have to spend money in order to compete with the Dodgers, Phillies, Mets, etc. The Cardinals will eventually likely have to spend back at the $170, $180 million level of ML payroll. Time will tell when/if that happens.

What those who support the Cardinals direction ARE saying is that the Cardinals don't need to prioritize spending money NOW - and in particular they should avoid committing to big 3, 4, 5, or more year contracts for significant FAs. Even if they held on to Gray, Contreras, Donovan, etc. and added like a Bo Bichette and/or Dylan Cease on 5+ year deals, they wouldn't have enough talent to really challenge the best teams in the NL in 2026. Committing to more guys now on long, expensive contracts who are likely to turn into your next "Nolan Arenados" in 3, 4, 5 years isn't going to help you down the road either.

The Cardinals probably will choose to sign some guys much more cheaply to 1 year + 1 team option year or 2 year deals - guys who are more "boom or bust" options like a Dustin May, etc. Those guys aren't being signed to "win now" in 2026. Those guys should be signed to be traded for more prospects at the 2026 trading deadline if they "boom," or cut loose after 2026 if they "bust." The Cardinals should also "spend money" now by packaging it with Gray, Arenado, Contreras, etc. in deals in order to get better prospects back which could jump start their rebuild in 2027, 2028, etc.

So their spending money now should be directed toward either gathering more prospects immediately (from trades of Gray, Arenado, Contreras) or gathering more prospects later by planning to deal cheap FAs signed now for prospects during the 2026 season.

But why? That is what those of us that don't agree with your logic are asking. Why? To save a few bucks for the billionaires? If they're eventually going to spend at those levels, then do it now and give the team a chance to make the playoffs. The only thing that cutting payroll does is guarantee that the team is worse. So they go out and sign a couple of significant players. 2 or 3 years down the road those contracts will be up and they can sign more, in the meantime they might have made the playoffs, gotten hot and won a championship. It is unlikely but it does happen. And as an added bonus, people come to the game to watch elite talent with a chance to win. You just never know how a season will go. Players play better, inuries kill teams that are ahead of them, teams decide to tank. You just don't know. Why gut a team and for that on the fans? Especially as I have stated elsewhere, gutting a team is no guarantee that it will achieve a championship. All you're doing is putting dollars in a billionaires pockets short term.

[mattmitchl44]

Addressing your last point, the concern is “eventually” never comes. There’s always some reason (like no pitching lab) as to why our last wave of prospects didn’t work out. Maybe eventually the farm pays off, the odds say we’re due…to say the least. But that shouldn’t stop the team from attacking mediocrity from all directions.

As far as your other points, we’ve said all that can be said so we’ll have to just respectfully disagree.

On another note, I must commend the way you’ve managed this thread. You took the time to acknowledge and address and respectfully debate each point from numerous replies from various posters. Many start a [shirt] storm and disappear or ignore certain points in well thought out replies of others. There are several posters who should observe and take note.

Thanks.

And, yes, pulling together the critical mass of young talent that they need to compete may take much longer to achieve than any of us would like.

But I would say - when all other paths to being really competitive with the Dodgers, Phillies, Mets, etc. are impossible, the path that remains (the one I hope they are committed to staying on), no matter how improbable, must be the truth.

So you think Bloom will be able to construct a starting squad of Homegrowners???? What is the probability of that??

They realistically need about 10 pre-ARB/ARB guys who are at least 2+ fWAR starting position players, starting pitchers, or a proven closer. And they need maybe 3 of those 10 to be better, like 3-4 fWAR.

Right now they have:

- Winn in the higher 3-4 fWAR category, so that's 1 of 3
- Herrera, Burleson, Donovan (unless traded), maybe Liberatore, maybe Scott, so best case that's about 5 of 7

So they need to add a 3-4 fWAR SP (e.g., Doyle), a 3-4 fWAR position player (Wetherholt). They need to have those guys actually producing at the ML level.

Then they need both Liberatore and Scott to get a bit better. And they need to see a couple of other guys (maybe Crooks, maybe McGreevy, maybe Svanson becoming a proven closer, maybe guys they get in trades this year, maybe Nootbaar bouncing back, Gorman, Walker, etc.) get into that solidly 2+ fWAR range.

And they need to have about eight solid pre-ARB/ARB bench players/relief pitchers - Romero (unless traded), O'Brien, Leahy, Graceffo, Saggese, Pages. So they need to find a few bench players/relief pitchers too.

They are good six or seven players short - at least 3 "high value" players and 3 "lower value" players short of the foundation they need. And they need a couple of those "high value" players to be a step higher than just OK.

It's going to take work and patience to get there, but getting Wetherholt and Doyle to the majors and playing up to their high potentials would be a key start. They need those two to be HRs.

Several of these things might have already been accomplished (or moved on to other options already) if we had the right manager. Oli is treading water with this roster and will continue to do so.

Whyever you think it is, it is.

All I know is that, unless Gorman and/or Walker have miraculous turnarounds and Liberatore becomes a #2/#3 SP, they are probably a couple of years away waiting for Wetherholt and Doyle to arrive before they can even start thinking about being competitive again.

[mattmitchl44]

There continues to be a contingent on CT who wants to misrepresent what those of us who support the Cardinals current direction are saying. This contingent repeatedly tries to say that we who support the direction categorically "don't want the Cardinals to spend money."

I have not seen anyone who has said that the Cardinals will not eventually have to spend money in order to compete with the Dodgers, Phillies, Mets, etc. The Cardinals will eventually likely have to spend back at the $170, $180 million level of ML payroll. Time will tell when/if that happens.

What those who support the Cardinals direction ARE saying is that the Cardinals don't need to prioritize spending money NOW - and in particular they should avoid committing to big 3, 4, 5, or more year contracts for significant FAs. Even if they held on to Gray, Contreras, Donovan, etc. and added like a Bo Bichette and/or Dylan Cease on 5+ year deals, they wouldn't have enough talent to really challenge the best teams in the NL in 2026. Committing to more guys now on long, expensive contracts who are likely to turn into your next "Nolan Arenados" in 3, 4, 5 years isn't going to help you down the road either.

The Cardinals probably will choose to sign some guys much more cheaply to 1 year + 1 team option year or 2 year deals - guys who are more "boom or bust" options like a Dustin May, etc. Those guys aren't being signed to "win now" in 2026. Those guys should be signed to be traded for more prospects at the 2026 trading deadline if they "boom," or cut loose after 2026 if they "bust." The Cardinals should also "spend money" now by packaging it with Gray, Arenado, Contreras, etc. in deals in order to get better prospects back which could jump start their rebuild in 2027, 2028, etc.

So their spending money now should be directed toward either gathering more prospects immediately (from trades of Gray, Arenado, Contreras) or gathering more prospects later by planning to deal cheap FAs signed now for prospects during the 2026 season.

But why? That is what those of us that don't agree with your logic are asking. Why? To save a few bucks for the billionaires? If they're eventually going to spend at those levels, then do it now and give the team a chance to make the playoffs. The only thing that cutting payroll does is guarantee that the team is worse. So they go out and sign a couple of significant players. 2 or 3 years down the road those contracts will be up and they can sign more, in the meantime they might have made the playoffs, gotten hot and won a championship. It is unlikely but it does happen. And as an added bonus, people come to the game to watch elite talent with a chance to win. You just never know how a season will go. Players play better, inuries kill teams that are ahead of them, teams decide to tank. You just don't know. Why gut a team and for that on the fans? Especially as I have stated elsewhere, gutting a team is no guarantee that it will achieve a championship. All you're doing is putting dollars in a billionaires pockets short term.

The why is right there:

...in particular they should avoid committing to big 3, 4, 5, or more year contracts for significant FAs. Even if they held on to Gray, Contreras, Donovan, etc. and added like a Bo Bichette and/or Dylan Cease on 5+ year deals, they wouldn't have enough talent to really challenge the best teams in the NL in 2026. Committing to more guys now on long, expensive contracts who are likely to turn into your next "Nolan Arenados" in 3, 4, 5 years isn't going to help you down the road either.

And I allot for:

The Cardinals probably will choose to sign some guys much more cheaply to 1 year + 1 team option year or 2 year deals - guys who are more "boom or bust" options like a Dustin May, etc. Those guys aren't being signed to "win now" in 2026. Those guys should be signed to be traded for more prospects at the 2026 trading deadline if they "boom," or cut loose after 2026 if they "bust."

[Dicktar2023]

They've already admitted than in recent years the short changed the player development side (like they should have had a pitching lab long before now, etc.) to put money into the ML team. Under Bloom they have to undo that and make their player development system top notch again. And they've specifically brough in Bloom, Cerfolio, etc. because they are expected to prioritize doing just that. And then they need to acquire more prospects for that new, top notch, player development system to work on.

It's on this issue that a lot of fans lose patience. If BDW was really so allergic to spending that he made Mo pick between the MLB roster and AAA, then why should we trust that he's going to be willing to spend money "when the time is right"?

If, on the other hand, that's not what really happened and just a cover story for Mo's incompetence, why should we trust this club to level with us about anything?

The less confident you are in ownership spending money on the ML payroll going forward, the more important prospects and player development become.

True. But is it too much to ask that we have an owner who is willing to invest in both development and the ML roster?

And if he isn't willing to do that, why should we make excuses for him? He's cheap, and his cheapness is ruining the franchise.

That said, I agree with you that he can't just spend his way out of this particular hole. Now is the time to rebuild. But I don't believe he's actually going to commit to that rebuild. And I have zero faith that he'll ever (even if the rebuild takes) be willing to spend extra money on the FA or two that would take this from an 85 win team to a serious WS threat.

[CCard]

There continues to be a contingent on CT who wants to misrepresent what those of us who support the Cardinals current direction are saying. This contingent repeatedly tries to say that we who support the direction categorically "don't want the Cardinals to spend money."

I have not seen anyone who has said that the Cardinals will not eventually have to spend money in order to compete with the Dodgers, Phillies, Mets, etc. The Cardinals will eventually likely have to spend back at the $170, $180 million level of ML payroll. Time will tell when/if that happens.

What those who support the Cardinals direction ARE saying is that the Cardinals don't need to prioritize spending money NOW - and in particular they should avoid committing to big 3, 4, 5, or more year contracts for significant FAs. Even if they held on to Gray, Contreras, Donovan, etc. and added like a Bo Bichette and/or Dylan Cease on 5+ year deals, they wouldn't have enough talent to really challenge the best teams in the NL in 2026. Committing to more guys now on long, expensive contracts who are likely to turn into your next "Nolan Arenados" in 3, 4, 5 years isn't going to help you down the road either.

The Cardinals probably will choose to sign some guys much more cheaply to 1 year + 1 team option year or 2 year deals - guys who are more "boom or bust" options like a Dustin May, etc. Those guys aren't being signed to "win now" in 2026. Those guys should be signed to be traded for more prospects at the 2026 trading deadline if they "boom," or cut loose after 2026 if they "bust." The Cardinals should also "spend money" now by packaging it with Gray, Arenado, Contreras, etc. in deals in order to get better prospects back which could jump start their rebuild in 2027, 2028, etc.

So their spending money now should be directed toward either gathering more prospects immediately (from trades of Gray, Arenado, Contreras) or gathering more prospects later by planning to deal cheap FAs signed now for prospects during the 2026 season.

But why? That is what those of us that don't agree with your logic are asking. Why? To save a few bucks for the billionaires? If they're eventually going to spend at those levels, then do it now and give the team a chance to make the playoffs. The only thing that cutting payroll does is guarantee that the team is worse. So they go out and sign a couple of significant players. 2 or 3 years down the road those contracts will be up and they can sign more, in the meantime they might have made the playoffs, gotten hot and won a championship. It is unlikely but it does happen. And as an added bonus, people come to the game to watch elite talent with a chance to win. You just never know how a season will go. Players play better, inuries kill teams that are ahead of them, teams decide to tank. You just don't know. Why gut a team and for that on the fans? Especially as I have stated elsewhere, gutting a team is no guarantee that it will achieve a championship. All you're doing is putting dollars in a billionaires pockets short term.

The why is right there:

...in particular they should avoid committing to big 3, 4, 5, or more year contracts for significant FAs. Even if they held on to Gray, Contreras, Donovan, etc. and added like a Bo Bichette and/or Dylan Cease on 5+ year deals, they wouldn't have enough talent to really challenge the best teams in the NL in 2026. Committing to more guys now on long, expensive contracts who are likely to turn into your next "Nolan Arenados" in 3, 4, 5 years isn't going to help you down the road either.

And I allot for:

The Cardinals probably will choose to sign some guys much more cheaply to 1 year + 1 team option year or 2 year deals - guys who are more "boom or bust" options like a Dustin May, etc. Those guys aren't being signed to "win now" in 2026. Those guys should be signed to be traded for more prospects at the 2026 trading deadline if they "boom," or cut loose after 2026 if they "bust."

They're never going to have the talent to challenge the Dodgers or Yankees or other big spenders. But if they make the playoffs they have a punchers chance. It's happened before and can happen again. Star players elevate teams and when that happens it creates excitement which drives the fan base and increases revenue. You don't know how a star free agent will turn out, you're just speculating. Nobody could have seen Arenado or Goldy diving that quickly. You want to treat baseball like it's a stratomatic board game. There are too many factors involved to do that. Say you tank basically and you get a Whetherholt and Doyle. Okay, they're premium draft picks. You can't predict if either will be successful. You hope they will be but there's a lot of difference between the minors and the majors. So, say they fail. Oops...You have to go back to the drawing board. Drop some more contracts, tank some more to get those premium picks. Now you're in a perpetual losing state like Cincy and Pittsburgh. You manage to develop a star so you trade him away for a bunch of lottery picks. You're back to the drawing board trying to develop a star of two. Even teams that tank and do find some success, it doesn't last long because those premium players have arbitration and eventual free agency. Now you've bashed your fan base and gotten them so used to you losing that they stop coming to games. It's a downward spiral that can only be fixed by some drastic measures. Like when Whitey came in and traded a boat load of players and change the team entirely. Tanking just guarantees losing, nothing more.

[JuanAgosto]

No need to change managers yet. Bloom probably couldn't get the guy he wants with the current roster. Give him time to build a stronger team. Then he will have a higher caliber of manager applicants.

The Manager and his coaching staff is WHO makes the roster stronger. And Oli isn't doing it. The young guys on the roster now don't have another year to wait and waste.

I agree a manager sets a tone, brings a culture, and adds an attitude to the team. And I prefer to see a change. But I dont think a top quality manager would be interested in this job right now. Bolster the roster and go find the guy.

[Hoosier59]

Addressing your last point, the concern is “eventually” never comes. There’s always some reason (like no pitching lab) as to why our last wave of prospects didn’t work out. Maybe eventually the farm pays off, the odds say we’re due…to say the least. But that shouldn’t stop the team from attacking mediocrity from all directions.

As far as your other points, we’ve said all that can be said so we’ll have to just respectfully disagree.

On another note, I must commend the way you’ve managed this thread. You took the time to acknowledge and address and respectfully debate each point from numerous replies from various posters. Many start a [shirt] storm and disappear or ignore certain points in well thought out replies of others. There are several posters who should observe and take note.

Thanks.

And, yes, pulling together the critical mass of young talent that they need to compete may take much longer to achieve than any of us would like.

But I would say - when all other paths to being really competitive with the Dodgers, Phillies, Mets, etc. are impossible, the path that remains (the one I hope they are committed to staying on), no matter how improbable, must be the truth.

So you think Bloom will be able to construct a starting squad of Homegrowners???? What is the probability of that??

They realistically need about 10 pre-ARB/ARB guys who are at least 2+ fWAR starting position players, starting pitchers, or a proven closer. And they need maybe 3 of those 10 to be better, like 3-4 fWAR.

Right now they have:

- Winn in the higher 3-4 fWAR category, so that's 1 of 3
- Herrera, Burleson, Donovan (unless traded), maybe Liberatore, maybe Scott, so best case that's about 5 of 7

So they need to add a 3-4 fWAR SP (e.g., Doyle), a 3-4 fWAR position player (Wetherholt). They need to have those guys actually producing at the ML level.

Then they need both Liberatore and Scott to get a bit better. And they need to see a couple of other guys (maybe Crooks, maybe McGreevy, maybe Svanson becoming a proven closer, maybe guys they get in trades this year, maybe Nootbaar bouncing back, Gorman, Walker, etc.) get into that solidly 2+ fWAR range.

And they need to have about eight solid pre-ARB/ARB bench players/relief pitchers - Romero (unless traded), O'Brien, Leahy, Graceffo, Saggese, Pages. So they need to find a few bench players/relief pitchers too.

They are good six or seven players short - at least 3 "high value" players and 3 "lower value" players short of the foundation they need. And they need a couple of those "high value" players to be a step higher than just OK.

It's going to take work and patience to get there, but getting Wetherholt and Doyle to the majors and playing up to their high potentials would be a key start. They need those two to be HRs.

Several of these things might have already been accomplished (or moved on to other options already) if we had the right manager. Oli is treading water with this roster and will continue to do so.

Whyever you think it is, it is.

All I know is that, unless Gorman and/or Walker have miraculous turnarounds and Liberatore becomes a #2/#3 SP, they are probably a couple of years away waiting for Wetherholt and Doyle to arrive before they can even start thinking about being competitive again.

I would counter with the fact, that they were competing this past year at different times, but the Cardinals continued to put Fedde, Pallante, and Mikolas on the mound in crucial games. Then injuries to Herrera, Donovan and Nootbaar set them back. Then they traded away key bullpen assets and brought back nothing to help the team down the stretch, and quite possibly never help them!
Removing Fedde and replacing him with McGreevey sooner would have made a difference. The Cardinals had two or three pitchers placed in Memphis as depth, but never used them. They obviously weren’t #1, #2, or even #3 starters, but wouldn’t any of them been better than Pallante? The Cardinals didn’t even try them. When Noot, Herrera and Donovan were out injured, who did the Cardinals replace them with? Valade, Hampson, and Church! The Cardinals said that they weren’t going to try and win, just see what the youngsters could do, and by golly that’s what they did. Even when the team played better than they expected, they still didn’t try and supplement the team. The Cardinals were not going to catch the Brewers, too many things fell into place for them, but they could have gotten in by the Wild Card and they DIDN’T TRY!
Now they tell us it’s going to be another 2 or 3 years before they are ready to go for it again. That just means after the lock out is over and “IF” DeWitt and other owners get their way and it won’t cost so much to compete.
However, if the owners don’t get their way, then I fully expect DeWitt to sell and get out!