The elephant in the room

[Talkin' Baseball]

If you trade SG your team could possibly totally collapse.

Most money saved, will get pocketed. Bloom will get to use a little of it somehow but If they somehow unload NA and SG, do you really think Dewitt will have a 200 mil payroll in 2027?

Is that what you think should happen?

[45s]

If you trade SG your team could possibly totally collapse.

Most money saved, will get pocketed. Bloom will get to use a little of it somehow but If they somehow unload NA and SG, do you really think Dewitt will have a 200 mil payroll in 2027?

If you are correct in your payroll prediction…..

then collecting as many young players as possible is the best strategy…

Moving Gray is part of that strategy….

[BrummerStealsHome]

I don't expect the Cardinals to be looking to trade young players who have 3+ years of team control remaining at this point.

Is three years a magic number.

The countdown begins in 134 days.

[ScotchMIrish]

We would like to dump and rebuild. Candidates for trade are those who are underperforming and/or aging with big contracts. The other 29 teams can look at the numbers and see the same thing we see. Nootbar, Gorman, Walker, most of the starting pitchers. We won't get anything in return.

The other option is to trade those who are performing. Donovan, Winn, Burleson, Hererra. We get something in return and hope the prospect turns out to be as good as the guy we traded. This isn't easy which is why teams like the Pirates are constantly struggling. They have been dumping and rebuilding for 30 years.

STEP 1: Trade NA, SG, BD, maybe WC and longshot: AB.
STEP 2: Sign minimum two starters to 1 year contracts. Maybe two other players to 1 year contracts.
STEP 3: If the team sucks at the TDL, flip those vets, along with maybe other players on the roster.

That's it.

As far as trading LN, NG and JW, no point unless they are blocking someone (which they are not) or you package them in another trade. But getting them off the team is not a top priority w the current team makeup.

Sounds reasonable but I'd keep 2 of Hererra, Contreras and Burleson for DH/1B unless there is someone in the minors or free agent who didn't get a QO and can hit. I doubt you fill Burleson's numbers for the same price. I'm also not a fan of moving Donovan but it's practically a done deal.

I can see them getting a couple #3 starters for Contreras and Donovan. Wouldn't expect as much for Arenado or Gray.

[82birds]

For the first time in 18 years the Cardinals have someone different making decisions. The new guy sees things differently than the old guy. He wants to do things differently using different methods and approaches to re-structure the roster, and the whole franchise really. Our track record the past 10 years says loud and clear that something of this sort needs to happen. Why the anxiety? Change can be a good thing.

HALLELUJAH !

[Ronnie Dobbs]

I don’t think the premise of the OP is correct. There is only one true salary dump candidate and that is Nolan Arenado.

Gray will probably get you a good return, especially if you’re picking up some of the contract. And Bloom and DeWitt have both mentioned that they’d be willing to eat some contract if it resulted in a better return. Teams are always looking for pitching. Gray is older, but still has potential to be a very good starter. For a team that maybe loses out on some higher tier free agents, or isn’t even in that market, and doesn’t want to go the Mo route and commit 3+ years on mediocre talent, Gray could be a great option. High end talent with no big commitment. Especially if you’re a team who is trying to beef up and win a WS and just need some pitching.

Willson Contreras is another guy who, I think, would get you a good return. More if they eat some money. Same as Gray, he’s only signed for 2 more years with a fair option for a 3rd year. A RH hitter with a 127 OPS+ the last 3 years. And it turns out he plays a good 1B. He catches too!! He also seems to be a good presence in the clubhouse. You see how badly we needed RH power last season. There’s other teams like that.

Then you’ve got Burleson and Donovan. Two young, inexpensive players. One guy won a silver slugger and the other guy was a finalist. These might be your best bet to get a good return. And we don’t have to trade both of them. Depends on how we’re planning in the future. I highly doubt they trade Winn and Herrera, and I wouldn’t either, but no one is untouchable. If someone blows you out of the water with a trade, you have to look at your options. And trading for any of these guys doesn’t mean you only get some prospects who are years away. Yea, you’re looking to the future, but you might be looking to get a guy who is MLB ready and/or already came up and had success at the MLB level.

As to Gorman, Walker, Noot, I don’t think these are guys you are too eager to trade, especially at a time when their value is pretty low. Maybe Noot. But again, if you still have faith in these guys, you give them this year to see what they’ve got. It’s a rebuild year. And if they suck again, it’s not going to matter because you probably weren’t getting much return for them this year either. But again, if a team comes in with a trade offer that makes sense, then pull the trigger.

Nothing is guaranteed either way. That’s why you gotta trust your talent evaluators. If you don’t trust Bloom and the team that he is bringing in, fine. But most are assuming that they’re pretty good at what they do and they’re not going to get fleece. Also, we’re not the Pirates and we’ll never be the Pirates. It’s not because their prospects aren’t panning out. It’s because as soon as they start to have to pay them any money, they trade them, and they never get a chance to have those really good young players that they have grow up with the team and have success.

[2ninr]

We would like to dump and rebuild. Candidates for trade are those who are underperforming and/or aging with big contracts. The other 29 teams can look at the numbers and see the same thing we see. Nootbar, Gorman, Walker, most of the starting pitchers. We won't get anything in return.

The other option is to trade those who are performing. Donovan, Winn, Burleson, Hererra. We get something in return and hope the prospect turns out to be as good as the guy we traded. This isn't easy which is why teams like the Pirates are constantly struggling. They have been dumping and rebuilding for 30 years.

STEP 1: Trade NA, SG, BD, maybe WC and longshot: AB.
STEP 2: Sign minimum two starters to 1 year contracts. Maybe two other players to 1 year contracts.
STEP 3: If the team sucks at the TDL, flip those vets, along with maybe other players on the roster.

That's it.

As far as trading LN, NG and JW, no point unless they are blocking someone (which they are not) or you package them in another trade. But getting them off the team is not a top priority w the current team makeup.

Sounds reasonable but I'd keep 2 of Hererra, Contreras and Burleson for DH/1B unless there is someone in the minors or free agent who didn't get a QO and can hit. I doubt you fill Burleson's numbers for the same price. I'm also not a fan of moving Donovan but it's practically a done deal.

I can see them getting a couple #3 starters for Contreras and Donovan. Wouldn't expect as much for Arenado or Gray.

I was thinking we might get a pretty decent return for Gray, especially if we were to eat a bit of his contract. What are your thoughts on him?

[Talkin' Baseball]

We would like to dump and rebuild. Candidates for trade are those who are underperforming and/or aging with big contracts. The other 29 teams can look at the numbers and see the same thing we see. Nootbar, Gorman, Walker, most of the starting pitchers. We won't get anything in return.

The other option is to trade those who are performing. Donovan, Winn, Burleson, Hererra. We get something in return and hope the prospect turns out to be as good as the guy we traded. This isn't easy which is why teams like the Pirates are constantly struggling. They have been dumping and rebuilding for 30 years.

STEP 1: Trade NA, SG, BD, maybe WC and longshot: AB.
STEP 2: Sign minimum two starters to 1 year contracts. Maybe two other players to 1 year contracts.
STEP 3: If the team sucks at the TDL, flip those vets, along with maybe other players on the roster.

That's it.

As far as trading LN, NG and JW, no point unless they are blocking someone (which they are not) or you package them in another trade. But getting them off the team is not a top priority w the current team makeup.

Sounds reasonable but I'd keep 2 of Hererra, Contreras and Burleson for DH/1B unless there is someone in the minors or free agent who didn't get a QO and can hit. I doubt you fill Burleson's numbers for the same price. I'm also not a fan of moving Donovan but it's practically a done deal.

I can see them getting a couple #3 starters for Contreras and Donovan. Wouldn't expect as much for Arenado or Gray.

I was thinking we might get a pretty decent return for Gray, especially if we were to eat a bit of his contract. What are your thoughts on him?

In another thread, I proposed Gray and 20M to the Toronto Blue Jays from Ricky Tiedemann. 23 y/o lefty coming off TJ with a K rate of 14.6/9 IP. They are losing Bassitt and Scherzer to FA and Berrios ended the season on the IL due to "elbow inflammation". Yikes. A team definitely in win-now mode with some slots to fill.

[C-Unit]

I don't expect the Cardinals to be looking to trade young players who have 3+ years of team control remaining at this point.

Is three years a magic number.

IMO, 3+ years means that they are still within the window where the Cardinals could start really competing again in 2027 or 2028. Those are guys the Cardinals need to hold on to and build around more than trade at this point. If they don't think they make enough progress in 2026, and competing starts to look like 2028 or 2029, maybe they look to trade some additional guys after the 2026 season.

It would probably be right for Gorman and Walker to get a chance to be evaluated under Bloom in his first year truly overseeing the big league club.

[woofy25]

We would like to dump and rebuild. Candidates for trade are those who are underperforming and/or aging with big contracts. The other 29 teams can look at the numbers and see the same thing we see. Nootbar, Gorman, Walker, most of the starting pitchers. We won't get anything in return.

The other option is to trade those who are performing. Donovan, Winn, Burleson, Hererra. We get something in return and hope the prospect turns out to be as good as the guy we traded. This isn't easy which is why teams like the Pirates are constantly struggling. They have been dumping and rebuilding for 30 years.

STEP 1: Trade NA, SG, BD, maybe WC and longshot: AB.
STEP 2: Sign minimum two starters to 1 year contracts. Maybe two other players to 1 year contracts.
STEP 3: If the team sucks at the TDL, flip those vets, along with maybe other players on the roster.

That's it.

As far as trading LN, NG and JW, no point unless they are blocking someone (which they are not) or you package them in another trade. But getting them off the team is not a top priority w the current team makeup.

Sounds reasonable but I'd keep 2 of Hererra, Contreras and Burleson for DH/1B unless there is someone in the minors or free agent who didn't get a QO and can hit. I doubt you fill Burleson's numbers for the same price. I'm also not a fan of moving Donovan but it's practically a done deal.

I can see them getting a couple #3 starters for Contreras and Donovan. Wouldn't expect as much for Arenado or Gray.

I was thinking we might get a pretty decent return for Gray, especially if we were to eat a bit of his contract. What are your thoughts on him?

From my limited research, starting pitchers making over $30M/yr in 2026. Wheeler, Snell, Cole, Burnes, Glasnow, Gray. Health aside, name the pitcher who does not belong. Gray is too expensive to generate any kind of hopeful return. The Cardinals will have to eat at least $10M, at least

[Talkin' Baseball]

We would like to dump and rebuild. Candidates for trade are those who are underperforming and/or aging with big contracts. The other 29 teams can look at the numbers and see the same thing we see. Nootbar, Gorman, Walker, most of the starting pitchers. We won't get anything in return.

The other option is to trade those who are performing. Donovan, Winn, Burleson, Hererra. We get something in return and hope the prospect turns out to be as good as the guy we traded. This isn't easy which is why teams like the Pirates are constantly struggling. They have been dumping and rebuilding for 30 years.

STEP 1: Trade NA, SG, BD, maybe WC and longshot: AB.
STEP 2: Sign minimum two starters to 1 year contracts. Maybe two other players to 1 year contracts.
STEP 3: If the team sucks at the TDL, flip those vets, along with maybe other players on the roster.

That's it.

As far as trading LN, NG and JW, no point unless they are blocking someone (which they are not) or you package them in another trade. But getting them off the team is not a top priority w the current team makeup.

Sounds reasonable but I'd keep 2 of Hererra, Contreras and Burleson for DH/1B unless there is someone in the minors or free agent who didn't get a QO and can hit. I doubt you fill Burleson's numbers for the same price. I'm also not a fan of moving Donovan but it's practically a done deal.

I can see them getting a couple #3 starters for Contreras and Donovan. Wouldn't expect as much for Arenado or Gray.

I was thinking we might get a pretty decent return for Gray, especially if we were to eat a bit of his contract. What are your thoughts on him?

From my limited research, starting pitchers making over $30M/yr in 2026. Wheeler, Snell, Cole, Burnes, Glasnow, Gray. Health aside, name the pitcher who does not belong. Gray is too expensive to generate any kind of hopeful return. The Cardinals will have to eat at least $10M, at least

No one is saying otherwise.

[ScotchMIrish]

We would like to dump and rebuild. Candidates for trade are those who are underperforming and/or aging with big contracts. The other 29 teams can look at the numbers and see the same thing we see. Nootbar, Gorman, Walker, most of the starting pitchers. We won't get anything in return.

The other option is to trade those who are performing. Donovan, Winn, Burleson, Hererra. We get something in return and hope the prospect turns out to be as good as the guy we traded. This isn't easy which is why teams like the Pirates are constantly struggling. They have been dumping and rebuilding for 30 years.

STEP 1: Trade NA, SG, BD, maybe WC and longshot: AB.
STEP 2: Sign minimum two starters to 1 year contracts. Maybe two other players to 1 year contracts.
STEP 3: If the team sucks at the TDL, flip those vets, along with maybe other players on the roster.

That's it.

As far as trading LN, NG and JW, no point unless they are blocking someone (which they are not) or you package them in another trade. But getting them off the team is not a top priority w the current team makeup.

Sounds reasonable but I'd keep 2 of Hererra, Contreras and Burleson for DH/1B unless there is someone in the minors or free agent who didn't get a QO and can hit. I doubt you fill Burleson's numbers for the same price. I'm also not a fan of moving Donovan but it's practically a done deal.

I can see them getting a couple #3 starters for Contreras and Donovan. Wouldn't expect as much for Arenado or Gray.

I was thinking we might get a pretty decent return for Gray, especially if we were to eat a bit of his contract. What are your thoughts on him?

He's great but for the first time in his career he was upside down in H/9 and he's 36. It's possible a team like Mets would take him for a good prospect. I wouldn't rule it out completely.

[okcardfan]

I don’t think the premise of the OP is correct. There is only one true salary dump candidate and that is Nolan Arenado.

Gray will probably get you a good return, especially if you’re picking up some of the contract. And Bloom and DeWitt have both mentioned that they’d be willing to eat some contract if it resulted in a better return. Teams are always looking for pitching. Gray is older, but still has potential to be a very good starter. For a team that maybe loses out on some higher tier free agents, or isn’t even in that market, and doesn’t want to go the Mo route and commit 3+ years on mediocre talent, Gray could be a great option. High end talent with no big commitment. Especially if you’re a team who is trying to beef up and win a WS and just need some pitching.

Willson Contreras is another guy who, I think, would get you a good return. More if they eat some money. Same as Gray, he’s only signed for 2 more years with a fair option for a 3rd year. A RH hitter with a 127 OPS+ the last 3 years. And it turns out he plays a good 1B. He catches too!! He also seems to be a good presence in the clubhouse. You see how badly we needed RH power last season. There’s other teams like that.

Then you’ve got Burleson and Donovan. Two young, inexpensive players. One guy won a silver slugger and the other guy was a finalist. These might be your best bet to get a good return. And we don’t have to trade both of them. Depends on how we’re planning in the future. I highly doubt they trade Winn and Herrera, and I wouldn’t either, but no one is untouchable. If someone blows you out of the water with a trade, you have to look at your options. And trading for any of these guys doesn’t mean you only get some prospects who are years away. Yea, you’re looking to the future, but you might be looking to get a guy who is MLB ready and/or already came up and had success at the MLB level.

As to Gorman, Walker, Noot, I don’t think these are guys you are too eager to trade, especially at a time when their value is pretty low. Maybe Noot. But again, if you still have faith in these guys, you give them this year to see what they’ve got. It’s a rebuild year. And if they suck again, it’s not going to matter because you probably weren’t getting much return for them this year either. But again, if a team comes in with a trade offer that makes sense, then pull the trigger.

Nothing is guaranteed either way. That’s why you gotta trust your talent evaluators. If you don’t trust Bloom and the team that he is bringing in, fine. But most are assuming that they’re pretty good at what they do and they’re not going to get fleece. Also, we’re not the Pirates and we’ll never be the Pirates. It’s not because their prospects aren’t panning out. It’s because as soon as they start to have to pay them any money, they trade them, and they never get a chance to have those really good young players that they have grow up with the team and have success.

Very thorough and well-reasoned post. Thanx for all the work.

[2ninr]

I don’t think the premise of the OP is correct. There is only one true salary dump candidate and that is Nolan Arenado.

Gray will probably get you a good return, especially if you’re picking up some of the contract. And Bloom and DeWitt have both mentioned that they’d be willing to eat some contract if it resulted in a better return. Teams are always looking for pitching. Gray is older, but still has potential to be a very good starter. For a team that maybe loses out on some higher tier free agents, or isn’t even in that market, and doesn’t want to go the Mo route and commit 3+ years on mediocre talent, Gray could be a great option. High end talent with no big commitment. Especially if you’re a team who is trying to beef up and win a WS and just need some pitching.

Willson Contreras is another guy who, I think, would get you a good return. More if they eat some money. Same as Gray, he’s only signed for 2 more years with a fair option for a 3rd year. A RH hitter with a 127 OPS+ the last 3 years. And it turns out he plays a good 1B. He catches too!! He also seems to be a good presence in the clubhouse. You see how badly we needed RH power last season. There’s other teams like that.

Then you’ve got Burleson and Donovan. Two young, inexpensive players. One guy won a silver slugger and the other guy was a finalist. These might be your best bet to get a good return. And we don’t have to trade both of them. Depends on how we’re planning in the future. I highly doubt they trade Winn and Herrera, and I wouldn’t either, but no one is untouchable. If someone blows you out of the water with a trade, you have to look at your options. And trading for any of these guys doesn’t mean you only get some prospects who are years away. Yea, you’re looking to the future, but you might be looking to get a guy who is MLB ready and/or already came up and had success at the MLB level.

As to Gorman, Walker, Noot, I don’t think these are guys you are too eager to trade, especially at a time when their value is pretty low. Maybe Noot. But again, if you still have faith in these guys, you give them this year to see what they’ve got. It’s a rebuild year. And if they suck again, it’s not going to matter because you probably weren’t getting much return for them this year either. But again, if a team comes in with a trade offer that makes sense, then pull the trigger.

Nothing is guaranteed either way. That’s why you gotta trust your talent evaluators. If you don’t trust Bloom and the team that he is bringing in, fine. But most are assuming that they’re pretty good at what they do and they’re not going to get fleece. Also, we’re not the Pirates and we’ll never be the Pirates. It’s not because their prospects aren’t panning out. It’s because as soon as they start to have to pay them any money, they trade them, and they never get a chance to have those really good young players that they have grow up with the team and have success.

Very thorough and well-reasoned post. Thanx for all the work.

There's a lot of good conversation happening on CT these days. I also appreciate the effort

[WeeVikes]

I don’t think the premise of the OP is correct. There is only one true salary dump candidate and that is Nolan Arenado.

Gray will probably get you a good return, especially if you’re picking up some of the contract. And Bloom and DeWitt have both mentioned that they’d be willing to eat some contract if it resulted in a better return. Teams are always looking for pitching. Gray is older, but still has potential to be a very good starter. For a team that maybe loses out on some higher tier free agents, or isn’t even in that market, and doesn’t want to go the Mo route and commit 3+ years on mediocre talent, Gray could be a great option. High end talent with no big commitment. Especially if you’re a team who is trying to beef up and win a WS and just need some pitching.

Willson Contreras is another guy who, I think, would get you a good return. More if they eat some money. Same as Gray, he’s only signed for 2 more years with a fair option for a 3rd year. A RH hitter with a 127 OPS+ the last 3 years. And it turns out he plays a good 1B. He catches too!! He also seems to be a good presence in the clubhouse. You see how badly we needed RH power last season. There’s other teams like that.

Then you’ve got Burleson and Donovan. Two young, inexpensive players. One guy won a silver slugger and the other guy was a finalist. These might be your best bet to get a good return. And we don’t have to trade both of them. Depends on how we’re planning in the future. I highly doubt they trade Winn and Herrera, and I wouldn’t either, but no one is untouchable. If someone blows you out of the water with a trade, you have to look at your options. And trading for any of these guys doesn’t mean you only get some prospects who are years away. Yea, you’re looking to the future, but you might be looking to get a guy who is MLB ready and/or already came up and had success at the MLB level.

As to Gorman, Walker, Noot, I don’t think these are guys you are too eager to trade, especially at a time when their value is pretty low. Maybe Noot. But again, if you still have faith in these guys, you give them this year to see what they’ve got. It’s a rebuild year. And if they suck again, it’s not going to matter because you probably weren’t getting much return for them this year either. But again, if a team comes in with a trade offer that makes sense, then pull the trigger.

Nothing is guaranteed either way. That’s why you gotta trust your talent evaluators. If you don’t trust Bloom and the team that he is bringing in, fine. But most are assuming that they’re pretty good at what they do and they’re not going to get fleece. Also, we’re not the Pirates and we’ll never be the Pirates. It’s not because their prospects aren’t panning out. It’s because as soon as they start to have to pay them any money, they trade them, and they never get a chance to have those really good young players that they have grow up with the team and have success.

Very thorough and well-reasoned post. Thanx for all the work.

There's a lot of good conversation happening on CT these days. I also appreciate the effort

Yeah! What’s gotten into us?!?