ESPN PDO Reports Blues one of Unluckiest Teams : Cites Probable Turnaround
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callitwhatyouwant
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ESPN PDO Reports Blues one of Unluckiest Teams : Cites Probable Turnaround
ESPN did a report today that had what most of us already know but the bots and trolls that the Blues are playing above their record pretty significantly in the skating department. Where they are right in line with their record is the goalie department. as of today, the blues are 7th in total scoring chances, 11th in expected goals and 4th in offensive zone time. They are 31st in save percentage. So despite the Blues playing in the other teams zone for a significant portion of the game, they can't get the save or the puck to go in.
Add into that equation that as of today the Blues still have a 32% chance of making the playoffs according to the PDO models. Put that next to moneypuck which is a much more what have you done outcome based lately valuator and it has them at 10%.
Little bit of optimism to be had in some dark times of hockey. I'm going to just root for a points streak. Hopefully the boys can start to put together some continuation of that. 4 or 5 points in 3 games is a good outcome. That kind of performance would get them back in the mix in a month. That is what I'll be rooting for tonight. And prepare to have my heart broken again.
Add into that equation that as of today the Blues still have a 32% chance of making the playoffs according to the PDO models. Put that next to moneypuck which is a much more what have you done outcome based lately valuator and it has them at 10%.
Little bit of optimism to be had in some dark times of hockey. I'm going to just root for a points streak. Hopefully the boys can start to put together some continuation of that. 4 or 5 points in 3 games is a good outcome. That kind of performance would get them back in the mix in a month. That is what I'll be rooting for tonight. And prepare to have my heart broken again.
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TheJackBurton
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Re: ESPN PDO Reports Blues one of Unluckiest Teams : Cites Probable Turnaround
Hofers last 3 stars have of course been very promising and if Binny can get on track then I believe we see the Blues go on quite the run.callitwhatyouwant wrote: ↑11 Nov 2025 14:06 pm ESPN did a report today that had what most of us already know but the bots and trolls that the Blues are playing above their record pretty significantly in the skating department. Where they are right in line with their record is the goalie department. as of today, the blues are 7th in total scoring chances, 11th in expected goals and 4th in offensive zone time. They are 31st in save percentage. So despite the Blues playing in the other teams zone for a significant portion of the game, they can't get the save or the puck to go in.
Add into that equation that as of today the Blues still have a 32% chance of making the playoffs according to the PDO models. Put that next to moneypuck which is a much more what have you done outcome based lately valuator and it has them at 10%.
Little bit of optimism to be had in some dark times of hockey. I'm going to just root for a points streak. Hopefully the boys can start to put together some continuation of that. 4 or 5 points in 3 games is a good outcome. That kind of performance would get them back in the mix in a month. That is what I'll be rooting for tonight. And prepare to have my heart broken again.
Their shooting percentage though needs to go up about 10% it has to be abysmally low at this point.
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ratonmono2
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Re: ESPN PDO Reports Blues one of Unluckiest Teams : Cites Probable Turnaround
This team isn't the 31st worst roster in the league. No doubt. But the league is so competitive these days, a stretch of deviations from an expected performance will make or break a team's season, especially rosters that aren't clear cut contenders. They could use a top 5 pick in the system anyway. The bigger questions I have are pro scouting issues. Why are we consistently targeting guys like Faulk, Krug, Buchnevich, Mailloux, Hoffman, Saad, etc the last five years? Way more misses than hits over the course of half a decade is concerning to me.
Re: ESPN PDO Reports Blues one of Unluckiest Teams : Cites Probable Turnaround
6 plus misses over 5 years.....I'm not gonna do the math but get in line with unhappy fans around the league with those very odds.ratonmono2 wrote: ↑11 Nov 2025 15:21 pm This team isn't the 31st worst roster in the league. No doubt. But the league is so competitive these days, a stretch of deviations from an expected performance will make or break a team's season, especially rosters that aren't clear cut contenders. They could use a top 5 pick in the system anyway. The bigger questions I have are pro scouting issues. Why are we consistently targeting guys like Faulk, Krug, Buchnevich, Mailloux, Hoffman, Saad, etc the last five years? Way more misses than hits over the course of half a decade is concerning to me.
And a few of those misses you cite have some debatable player labels as well.
This team is for some reason under performing, below most all expectations.
Re: ESPN PDO Reports Blues one of Unluckiest Teams : Cites Probable Turnaround
Well, duh. The Blues have had a lot of problems and they were hit by the injury bug in a huge way. They've solved some and they're working on others. Right now, they need to get the offense clicking and to do that they ALL need to play better, at least up to their track records.
Thomas right now projects to 10 goals and 35 assists over 80 games. This team has to have him clicking at at least a ppg pace.
Dvorsky projects to . . . Nothing, at even strength. MIA. Come on kid, you either skate with these guys and make something happen or you'll soon be back in Springfield. Yes, he's been playing with guys shooting blanks, but it's his job to make them more productive.
Schenn is now a wing. A guy with zero goals and assists in six games at ES has his center gig.
Holloway, Buch, Kyrou, the defensemen, all of them need to pick it up.
Thomas right now projects to 10 goals and 35 assists over 80 games. This team has to have him clicking at at least a ppg pace.
Dvorsky projects to . . . Nothing, at even strength. MIA. Come on kid, you either skate with these guys and make something happen or you'll soon be back in Springfield. Yes, he's been playing with guys shooting blanks, but it's his job to make them more productive.
Schenn is now a wing. A guy with zero goals and assists in six games at ES has his center gig.
Holloway, Buch, Kyrou, the defensemen, all of them need to pick it up.
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AtillaTheBlue1
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Re: ESPN PDO Reports Blues one of Unluckiest Teams : Cites Probable Turnaround
lolcallitwhatyouwant wrote: ↑11 Nov 2025 14:06 pm ESPN did a report today that had what most of us already know but the bots and trolls that the Blues are playing above their record pretty significantly in the skating department. Where they are right in line with their record is the goalie department. as of today, the blues are 7th in total scoring chances, 11th in expected goals and 4th in offensive zone time. They are 31st in save percentage. So despite the Blues playing in the other teams zone for a significant portion of the game, they can't get the save or the puck to go in.
Re: ESPN PDO Reports Blues one of Unluckiest Teams : Cites Probable Turnaround
Buch for a 2nd and Sammy Blais was mot a miss. It was a steal. The only issue is if he should have been traded or received the long term contract here. Faulk has had some really good years for the Blues. Saad gave the Blues 2 solid years before the Blues were able to escape the contract at the end. I always thought Krug was a mistake from the beginning. However, we'll never know how much his injury impeded his play with the Blues. I never liked Hoffman but it was just a one year fill in. With Mailoux the early returns aren't great, but it's still way too early to write him off. How about adding Broberg, Holloway and Fowler at little cost? Suter as a free agent seems like good value so far. I'll agree amateur scouting has been superior to pro scouting. However, the Blues pro scouting hasn't been as bad as you're making it out.ratonmono2 wrote: ↑11 Nov 2025 15:21 pm This team isn't the 31st worst roster in the league. No doubt. But the league is so competitive these days, a stretch of deviations from an expected performance will make or break a team's season, especially rosters that aren't clear cut contenders. They could use a top 5 pick in the system anyway. The bigger questions I have are pro scouting issues. Why are we consistently targeting guys like Faulk, Krug, Buchnevich, Mailloux, Hoffman, Saad, etc the last five years? Way more misses than hits over the course of half a decade is concerning to me.
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ratonmono2
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Re: ESPN PDO Reports Blues one of Unluckiest Teams : Cites Probable Turnaround
Buchnevich is a miss on pro scouting. Period. That guy is a low event player who plays small and shies away from big plays and big moments. That they got him for a relative low price is not the point. This guy is signed for long-term at big money and is absolutely not the kind of player you want to give that money to. It's a trend. It's the same with Krug, Faulk, Saad, etc. I'm not discounting that they've made positive moves, but the positives are massively outweighed by the trend towards really, really questionable moves. Are you happy with the hundreds of millions worth of contracts that they've given out to these guys? Are we really going to call giving huge money to Broberg or Holloway wins? I'm far from convinced either guy is worth a long-term investment and given the last half decade of evidence, I don't know that I trust them to make the correct investments anymore.Sudsy 11 wrote: ↑11 Nov 2025 16:54 pmBuch for a 2nd and Sammy Blais was mot a miss. It was a steal. The only issue is if he should have been traded or received the long term contract here. Faulk has had some really good years for the Blues. Saad gave the Blues 2 solid years before the Blues were able to escape the contract at the end. I always thought Krug was a mistake from the beginning. However, we'll never know how much his injury impeded his play with the Blues. I never liked Hoffman but it was just a one year fill in. With Mailoux the early returns aren't great, but it's still way too early to write him off. How about adding Broberg, Holloway and Fowler at little cost? Suter as a free agent seems like good value so far. I'll agree amateur scouting has been superior to pro scouting. However, the Blues pro scouting hasn't been as bad as you're making it out.ratonmono2 wrote: ↑11 Nov 2025 15:21 pm This team isn't the 31st worst roster in the league. No doubt. But the league is so competitive these days, a stretch of deviations from an expected performance will make or break a team's season, especially rosters that aren't clear cut contenders. They could use a top 5 pick in the system anyway. The bigger questions I have are pro scouting issues. Why are we consistently targeting guys like Faulk, Krug, Buchnevich, Mailloux, Hoffman, Saad, etc the last five years? Way more misses than hits over the course of half a decade is concerning to me.
Re: ESPN PDO Reports Blues one of Unluckiest Teams : Cites Probable Turnaround
Buch is not a miss on pro scouting. Period. That they got a good player for a relatively low price which is exactly their job. He's one of the few Blues forwards that consistently play a 200 foot game. He's not a low event player either. He has 19 points in 19 playoff games for the Blues. He hasn't been good this year and the contract could end up be regrettable as many 8 year deals given to close to 30 year olds end up being. However, your hatred for the player is irrational. Your low post total makes me wonder who you may be. Moving forward, it's going to be difficult to judge long terms contracts until we see how they play out as the cap changes. Try not to worry about them so much. It's not your $ and you have no control over them anyway.ratonmono2 wrote: ↑11 Nov 2025 17:31 pmBuchnevich is a miss on pro scouting. Period. That guy is a low event player who plays small and shies away from big plays and big moments. That they got him for a relative low price is not the point. This guy is signed for long-term at big money and is absolutely not the kind of player you want to give that money to. It's a trend. It's the same with Krug, Faulk, Saad, etc. I'm not discounting that they've made positive moves, but the positives are massively outweighed by the trend towards really, really questionable moves. Are you happy with the hundreds of millions worth of contracts that they've given out to these guys? Are we really going to call giving huge money to Broberg or Holloway wins? I'm far from convinced either guy is worth a long-term investment and given the last half decade of evidence, I don't know that I trust them to make the correct investments anymore.Sudsy 11 wrote: ↑11 Nov 2025 16:54 pmBuch for a 2nd and Sammy Blais was mot a miss. It was a steal. The only issue is if he should have been traded or received the long term contract here. Faulk has had some really good years for the Blues. Saad gave the Blues 2 solid years before the Blues were able to escape the contract at the end. I always thought Krug was a mistake from the beginning. However, we'll never know how much his injury impeded his play with the Blues. I never liked Hoffman but it was just a one year fill in. With Mailoux the early returns aren't great, but it's still way too early to write him off. How about adding Broberg, Holloway and Fowler at little cost? Suter as a free agent seems like good value so far. I'll agree amateur scouting has been superior to pro scouting. However, the Blues pro scouting hasn't been as bad as you're making it out.ratonmono2 wrote: ↑11 Nov 2025 15:21 pm This team isn't the 31st worst roster in the league. No doubt. But the league is so competitive these days, a stretch of deviations from an expected performance will make or break a team's season, especially rosters that aren't clear cut contenders. They could use a top 5 pick in the system anyway. The bigger questions I have are pro scouting issues. Why are we consistently targeting guys like Faulk, Krug, Buchnevich, Mailloux, Hoffman, Saad, etc the last five years? Way more misses than hits over the course of half a decade is concerning to me.
Re: ESPN PDO Reports Blues one of Unluckiest Teams : Cites Probable Turnaround
Broberg is on his way to 25 years old and has never scored a PP goal. 3 PP points in his career.ratonmono2 wrote: ↑11 Nov 2025 17:31 pm Are we really going to call giving huge money to Broberg or Holloway wins? I'm far from convinced either guy is worth a long-term investment and given the last half decade of evidence, I don't know that I trust them to make the correct investments anymore.
He also doesn’t ooze leadership.
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ratonmono2
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Re: ESPN PDO Reports Blues one of Unluckiest Teams : Cites Probable Turnaround
You think Buch is a solid 200 foot player? That's certainly a take. 19 points in 19 playoff games, did you watch those games? Are you really happy with his play in those games? Seriously? You think that his impact in big games has been worthy of his contract and ice time?Sudsy 11 wrote: ↑11 Nov 2025 18:57 pmBuch is not a miss on pro scouting. Period. That they got a good player for a relatively low price which is exactly their job. He's one of the few Blues forwards that consistently play a 200 foot game. He's not a low event player either. He has 19 points in 19 playoff games for the Blues. He hasn't been good this year and the contract could end up be regrettable as many 8 year deals given to close to 30 year olds end up being. However, your hatred for the player is irrational. Your low post total makes me wonder who you may be. Moving forward, it's going to be difficult to judge long terms contracts until we see how they play out as the cap changes. Try not to worry about them so much. It's not your $ and you have no control over them anyway.ratonmono2 wrote: ↑11 Nov 2025 17:31 pmBuchnevich is a miss on pro scouting. Period. That guy is a low event player who plays small and shies away from big plays and big moments. That they got him for a relative low price is not the point. This guy is signed for long-term at big money and is absolutely not the kind of player you want to give that money to. It's a trend. It's the same with Krug, Faulk, Saad, etc. I'm not discounting that they've made positive moves, but the positives are massively outweighed by the trend towards really, really questionable moves. Are you happy with the hundreds of millions worth of contracts that they've given out to these guys? Are we really going to call giving huge money to Broberg or Holloway wins? I'm far from convinced either guy is worth a long-term investment and given the last half decade of evidence, I don't know that I trust them to make the correct investments anymore.Sudsy 11 wrote: ↑11 Nov 2025 16:54 pmBuch for a 2nd and Sammy Blais was mot a miss. It was a steal. The only issue is if he should have been traded or received the long term contract here. Faulk has had some really good years for the Blues. Saad gave the Blues 2 solid years before the Blues were able to escape the contract at the end. I always thought Krug was a mistake from the beginning. However, we'll never know how much his injury impeded his play with the Blues. I never liked Hoffman but it was just a one year fill in. With Mailoux the early returns aren't great, but it's still way too early to write him off. How about adding Broberg, Holloway and Fowler at little cost? Suter as a free agent seems like good value so far. I'll agree amateur scouting has been superior to pro scouting. However, the Blues pro scouting hasn't been as bad as you're making it out.ratonmono2 wrote: ↑11 Nov 2025 15:21 pm This team isn't the 31st worst roster in the league. No doubt. But the league is so competitive these days, a stretch of deviations from an expected performance will make or break a team's season, especially rosters that aren't clear cut contenders. They could use a top 5 pick in the system anyway. The bigger questions I have are pro scouting issues. Why are we consistently targeting guys like Faulk, Krug, Buchnevich, Mailloux, Hoffman, Saad, etc the last five years? Way more misses than hits over the course of half a decade is concerning to me.
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ratonmono2
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Re: ESPN PDO Reports Blues one of Unluckiest Teams : Cites Probable Turnaround
He's got a ton to prove. I like both players well enough but I want to see a lot more from both him and Holloway.theograce wrote: ↑11 Nov 2025 18:59 pmBroberg is on his way to 25 years old and has never scored a PP goal. 3 PP points in his career.ratonmono2 wrote: ↑11 Nov 2025 17:31 pm Are we really going to call giving huge money to Broberg or Holloway wins? I'm far from convinced either guy is worth a long-term investment and given the last half decade of evidence, I don't know that I trust them to make the correct investments anymore.
He also doesn’t ooze leadership.
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Mr.Snuggleupagus
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Re: ESPN PDO Reports Blues one of Unluckiest Teams : Cites Probable Turnaround
They would make an attractive package if any star players around the league were to become unhappy.ratonmono2 wrote: ↑11 Nov 2025 19:10 pmHe's got a ton to prove. I like both players well enough but I want to see a lot more from both him and Holloway.theograce wrote: ↑11 Nov 2025 18:59 pmBroberg is on his way to 25 years old and has never scored a PP goal. 3 PP points in his career.ratonmono2 wrote: ↑11 Nov 2025 17:31 pm Are we really going to call giving huge money to Broberg or Holloway wins? I'm far from convinced either guy is worth a long-term investment and given the last half decade of evidence, I don't know that I trust them to make the correct investments anymore.
He also doesn’t ooze leadership.
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callitwhatyouwant
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Re: ESPN PDO Reports Blues one of Unluckiest Teams : Cites Probable Turnaround
well the team is continuing to score at a decent rate. This is about the time in the game where the goalie play goes to poop and then we question what happens