You’re Gonna Hate A Donovan Deal

[renostl]

what about Donovan plus?
part of a package

you trade Donovan on his own...

I know, 82birds, I feel you, you want a competitive team now. I get that....but Donovan shouldn't be packaged with anyone....that'll hurt our team's future in the worst way.

That depends on the deal doesn't it? Just having quantities of prospects doesn't produce wins. Developing the right prospects and keeping them helps, as well as signing/trading for the right vets. But trading prospects with more trade value than future production ability doesn't hurt our future at all. In the right package it could both help us now and in the future.

At what point do we begin to "spend" all the prospect capital we've been accumulating thru selling off at the end of 2023 and 2025? We can't use all the players we got in returns, and if we wait too long, some of them will lose all their value, like Drew Rom.

the 2023 trades have yielded what they're going to yield....Svanson, Saggese and eventually Roby (hopefully, knock on wood)...that's it. Rom and Robberse are probably both cut this offseason....or waived....w/e the vernacular you choose to believe. Robberse is definitely off the 40man. And Rom is around 20th inline on our 19 Top LHP prospect lists

Saggese, Svanson and a Hope on Roby....who do you sell b/c you believe their trade value now will outweigh their future production?

Me? I wouldn't trade Svanson. Probable closer or at least backend type. I would like a Svanson, Granillo, Gastelum backend of the BP by the end of 2026...that has some serious legs....and their trade value will likely only increase over the next 4 years.

Roby and Saggese....trade them...I get what you're suggesting/saying, they fit the scenario of value now vs. future production.

I'm not with certainty that BD is the guy who is moved
It is incredibly tied together.
But for this topic I'll say he is the one that goes.

Whitt was older and his production had slipped below .700.
Not sure it's a good comp when we don't know what KC turned down in prior seasons,
say his 29-31 when his production was closer to BD's.

Red has a point in regards to a break even point being on the horizon
I just don't think it's now or 2026 with BD current production. The demand
has changed some the last couple seasons along with a .772 OPS is more rare.


I'd have almost zero hesitation in adding to Donnie to get a player
that moves the needle as to upside. IMO, he should be used for what they
do not have a 3, preferably better SP, or SLG. Adding Roby, Saggese or
anyone to get that is fine and quality over quantity.

[Ozziesfan41]

If the Cardinals trade Brendan Donovan, the return will not even be close to the “haul” most of you are expecting. He is essentially a poor man’s Whit Merrifield. Merrifield had much better speed, had a better hit tool and could play CF. The Royals couldn’t trade him because they were better off keeping him, because as a trade chip, he didn’t have much value. Donovan is essentially a JAG. (As are guys like Nootbaar, Burleson, et al.). He’s not bringing back a #2 starter with control or a top prospect. The return will be a Tier 2, a Tier 3, and a lottery ticket.

That’s fine with me. He’s a little better than JAG but he’s not worth signing to a long term contract for this team so he should be traded

[ScotchMIrish]

If the Cardinals trade Brendan Donovan, the return will not even be close to the “haul” most of you are expecting. He is essentially a poor man’s Whit Merrifield. Merrifield had much better speed, had a better hit tool and could play CF. The Royals couldn’t trade him because they were better off keeping him, because as a trade chip, he didn’t have much value. Donovan is essentially a JAG. (As are guys like Nootbaar, Burleson, et al.). He’s not bringing back a #2 starter with control or a top prospect. The return will be a Tier 2, a Tier 3, and a lottery ticket.

One big difference you overlooked. Merrifield was 33 years old when KC finally traded him . Donovan is 28 years old ( will call him 29 though as his 29th birthday is upcoming in January ) . A HUGE difference in baseball terms.

Merrifield retired at age 35. Teams wanting him in a trade knew they would be getting him for just two years most likely. Donovan has several years left in his career.

Donovan is an easy sell. You can't get around the 3 facts....29 with 2 more years of cheap control, highly versatile defensively, and good LHB.

He fits a lot of teams goals for this offseason.

Let's be realistic: he won't bring Current Starting MLB pitcher, nor Current Starting MLB Bats....we'll get prospects, and they'll be pretty decent ones...we should be grateful...b/c he want fetch that next season....this is the best time to trade him. We're not actively trying to compete the next few seasons....I'd try all winter to get a bidding war going....trade him around January.

I agree. If Bloom can't get something in return that doesn't bode well. I'm not sure it was a good idea to leak the fact he wanted to trade Donovan. In the case of Betts it was the owner who went public and then pulled it back. I don't think making it public helps get the best return. Perhaps better to act like you think highly of the guy and are reluctant to trade but would listen to offers.

Lol. There is zero correlation to say you’re listening to trade offers and how highly you think of a player.

Most trades occur based on the position of the team, not feelings toward a player…

I can envision a similar situation to the Betts trade in which the Red Sox added David Price. Bloom tries to couple Donovan with either Gray or Arenado to get the other team to take on most of the bad money.

It's a similar situation. I didn't hear Bloom say they were working on an extension.

[ecleme22]

If the Cardinals trade Brendan Donovan, the return will not even be close to the “haul” most of you are expecting. He is essentially a poor man’s Whit Merrifield. Merrifield had much better speed, had a better hit tool and could play CF. The Royals couldn’t trade him because they were better off keeping him, because as a trade chip, he didn’t have much value. Donovan is essentially a JAG. (As are guys like Nootbaar, Burleson, et al.). He’s not bringing back a #2 starter with control or a top prospect. The return will be a Tier 2, a Tier 3, and a lottery ticket.

One big difference you overlooked. Merrifield was 33 years old when KC finally traded him . Donovan is 28 years old ( will call him 29 though as his 29th birthday is upcoming in January ) . A HUGE difference in baseball terms.

Merrifield retired at age 35. Teams wanting him in a trade knew they would be getting him for just two years most likely. Donovan has several years left in his career.

Donovan is an easy sell. You can't get around the 3 facts....29 with 2 more years of cheap control, highly versatile defensively, and good LHB.

He fits a lot of teams goals for this offseason.

Let's be realistic: he won't bring Current Starting MLB pitcher, nor Current Starting MLB Bats....we'll get prospects, and they'll be pretty decent ones...we should be grateful...b/c he want fetch that next season....this is the best time to trade him. We're not actively trying to compete the next few seasons....I'd try all winter to get a bidding war going....trade him around January.

I agree. If Bloom can't get something in return that doesn't bode well. I'm not sure it was a good idea to leak the fact he wanted to trade Donovan. In the case of Betts it was the owner who went public and then pulled it back. I don't think making it public helps get the best return. Perhaps better to act like you think highly of the guy and are reluctant to trade but would listen to offers.

Lol. There is zero correlation to say you’re listening to trade offers and how highly you think of a player.

Most trades occur based on the position of the team, not feelings toward a player…

I can envision a similar situation to the Betts trade in which the Red Sox added David Price. Bloom tries to couple Donovan with either Gray or Arenado to get the other team to take on most of the bad money.

It's a similar situation. I didn't hear Bloom say they were working on an extension.

You’re changing the subject.

[Carp4Cy]

Kinda disagree

BD should be traded this offseason to a contender for 2-3 of their top prospects (not current MLB players). What those prospects turn into 3-5 years from now — that is the fun of it.

Disagree that's the fun of it. Experience has taught me we are eventually underwhelmed by pretty much all prospect trades not featuring Wainwright. Fun to me is producing runs and wins at the MLB level.

[JohnnyMO]

Kinda disagree

BD should be traded this offseason to a contender for 2-3 of their top prospects (not current MLB players). What those prospects turn into 3-5 years from now — that is the fun of it.

Disagree that's the fun of it. Experience has taught me we are eventually underwhelmed by pretty much all prospect trades not featuring Wainwright. Fun to me is producing runs and wins at the MLB level.

I get feeling that way. I even sort of agree. But that isn’t what a rebuild is. May as well accept they are rebuilding

[JuanAgosto]

I would be fine if Donovan fetches a good #3 starting pitcher or (hopefully) a #2.

[renostl]

Kinda disagree

BD should be traded this offseason to a contender for 2-3 of their top prospects (not current MLB players). What those prospects turn into 3-5 years from now — that is the fun of it.

Disagree that's the fun of it. Experience has taught me we are eventually underwhelmed by pretty much all prospect trades not featuring Wainwright. Fun to me is producing runs and wins at the MLB level.

There are reasons for you to have this opinion.

IF the new scouting and developmental departments are working as well as all want it to work
why focus on a 3-5 year time frame when Mr. Bloom may be moving on to his next job?

I'll believe the timeline to be close enough for Bloom to earn a raise either in St. Louis or
elsewhere.

Major and easily identifiable holes on the roster with a low number of players to fill
them near term. A few redundancies on the roster. Poor attendance and excitement around the team.
They won't be buying their way out of it, but they will address it with a couple of players that
have a chance to impact the team sooner than half a decade.

[ramfandan]

If the Cardinals trade Brendan Donovan, the return will not even be close to the “haul” most of you are expecting. He is essentially a poor man’s Whit Merrifield. Merrifield had much better speed, had a better hit tool and could play CF. The Royals couldn’t trade him because they were better off keeping him, because as a trade chip, he didn’t have much value. Donovan is essentially a JAG. (As are guys like Nootbaar, Burleson, et al.). He’s not bringing back a #2 starter with control or a top prospect. The return will be a Tier 2, a Tier 3, and a lottery ticket.

One big difference you overlooked. Merrifield was 33 years old when KC finally traded him . Donovan is 28 years old ( will call him 29 though as his 29th birthday is upcoming in January ) . A HUGE difference in baseball terms.

Merrifield retired at age 35. Teams wanting him in a trade knew they would be getting him for just two years most likely. Donovan has several years left in his career.

Donovan is an easy sell. You can't get around the 3 facts....29 with 2 more years of cheap control, highly versatile defensively, and good LHB.

He fits a lot of teams goals for this offseason.

Let's be realistic: he won't bring Current Starting MLB pitcher, nor Current Starting MLB Bats....we'll get prospects, and they'll be pretty decent ones...we should be grateful...b/c he want fetch that next season....this is the best time to trade him. We're not actively trying to compete the next few seasons....I'd try all winter to get a bidding war going....trade him around January.

I agree. If Bloom can't get something in return that doesn't bode well. I'm not sure it was a good idea to leak the fact he wanted to trade Donovan. In the case of Betts it was the owner who went public and then pulled it back. I don't think making it public helps get the best return. Perhaps better to act like you think highly of the guy and are reluctant to trade but would listen to offers.

Correct me if am wrong and cite Bloom's quote but don't remember Bloom indicating he wanted to trade Donovan. What I remember him saying when asked about Donovan's future with the team , Bloom replied he was 'unsure ' saying that an extension could be possible or a trade .
That's a much different take than saying he wants to trade Donovan.
Bloom is playing his cards close to the vest .

[ScotchMIrish]

If the Cardinals trade Brendan Donovan, the return will not even be close to the “haul” most of you are expecting. He is essentially a poor man’s Whit Merrifield. Merrifield had much better speed, had a better hit tool and could play CF. The Royals couldn’t trade him because they were better off keeping him, because as a trade chip, he didn’t have much value. Donovan is essentially a JAG. (As are guys like Nootbaar, Burleson, et al.). He’s not bringing back a #2 starter with control or a top prospect. The return will be a Tier 2, a Tier 3, and a lottery ticket.

One big difference you overlooked. Merrifield was 33 years old when KC finally traded him . Donovan is 28 years old ( will call him 29 though as his 29th birthday is upcoming in January ) . A HUGE difference in baseball terms.

Merrifield retired at age 35. Teams wanting him in a trade knew they would be getting him for just two years most likely. Donovan has several years left in his career.

Donovan is an easy sell. You can't get around the 3 facts....29 with 2 more years of cheap control, highly versatile defensively, and good LHB.

He fits a lot of teams goals for this offseason.

Let's be realistic: he won't bring Current Starting MLB pitcher, nor Current Starting MLB Bats....we'll get prospects, and they'll be pretty decent ones...we should be grateful...b/c he want fetch that next season....this is the best time to trade him. We're not actively trying to compete the next few seasons....I'd try all winter to get a bidding war going....trade him around January.

I agree. If Bloom can't get something in return that doesn't bode well. I'm not sure it was a good idea to leak the fact he wanted to trade Donovan. In the case of Betts it was the owner who went public and then pulled it back. I don't think making it public helps get the best return. Perhaps better to act like you think highly of the guy and are reluctant to trade but would listen to offers.

Correct me if am wrong and cite Bloom's quote but don't remember Bloom indicating he wanted to trade Donovan. What I remember him saying when asked about Donovan's future with the team , Bloom replied he was 'unsure ' saying that an extension could be possible or a trade .
That's a much different take than saying he wants to trade Donovan.
Bloom is playing his cards close to the vest .

Perhaps I'm wrong but an recent thread quoted a St Louis sports writer who indicated the Cardinals were looking to trade Donovan. The writer could have just fabricated it but I guessed he got that from Bloom since other sources indicated there are talks.

[cardstatman]

If Donovan is traded, it means we are tanking 2026 and the return should be a prospect or prospects with upside who won't be MLB ready until 2027 or later.

Even with a good season, his trade value will certainly be much lower when 2026 is over since he will be down to a 1 year rental.

[juan good eye]

Kinda disagree

BD should be traded this offseason to a contender for 2-3 of their top prospects (not current MLB players). What those prospects turn into 3-5 years from now — that is the fun of it.

Disagree that's the fun of it. Experience has taught me we are eventually underwhelmed by pretty much all prospect trades not featuring Wainwright. Fun to me is producing runs and wins at the MLB level.

Bc you had bad experiences with previous decision makers your recommendation is to do nothing out of fear of failure? Get some therapy

[renostl]

If Donovan is traded, it means we are tanking 2026 and the return should be a prospect or prospects with upside who won't be MLB ready until 2027 or later.

Even with a good season, his trade value will certainly be much lower when 2026 is over since he will be down to a 1 year rental.

Likely true.
Still I think that the return and what else is done this offseason should be known before calling it tanking..

[C-Unit]

There will be a bidding war for Donovan this offseason. You can count around 10-15 teams that could use him. .

You know what I can see this happening. That article a few days ago about Donovan's trade targets really opened my eyes up to how many teams could come to the table in some way shape or form.

I think of the Adam Eaton trade years back, Washington coughed up several top prospects. Maybe Eaton represented the bubble top of the "OBP" craze, as I remember that being the narrative for why teams were going to want him. And that isn't to say OBP isn't valuable, but it was a case I think where Eaton's value was embellished based on what the hyperfocus was around baseball at that time..

Maybe Donovan represents something in that light. Donovan isn't quite a ".300 hitter" but with the focus we have on the lack of .300 hitters in the game, Donovan's contact (and OBP) skills could be widely coveted. There could be a perfect storm brewing to get a bigger package for him than he should command in all fairness.

And then after 2027 he can sign a free agent deal with the newly contending St Louis Cardinals

[Carp4Cy]

Kinda disagree

BD should be traded this offseason to a contender for 2-3 of their top prospects (not current MLB players). What those prospects turn into 3-5 years from now — that is the fun of it.

Disagree that's the fun of it. Experience has taught me we are eventually underwhelmed by pretty much all prospect trades not featuring Wainwright. Fun to me is producing runs and wins at the MLB level.

Bc you had bad experiences with previous decision makers your recommendation is to do nothing out of fear of failure? Get some therapy

I’m saying it’s not fun to watch a losing MLB team and try to constantly deny the cognitive dissonance that losing is somehow the yen yang path to winning in some messed up universe. The people who believe that are the ones that need therapy.

The Blue Jays just went worst to first. They did it with a 255m payroll, not by tanking for most of a decade and tormenting the fans.

[ICCFIM2]

Per baseball trade value, Donovan's trade value is $26M. In terms of prospect value, a 55 graded prospect in AA is generally valued in the $8-12M range. The Cards have one 60 grade prospect, Wetherholdt, and 3 55 grade prospects, Doyle Rodriguez and Bernal. The expected return for Donovan should be 2 of Doyle, Rodriguez or Bernal and maybe an additional lottery pick. He could also be paired with another player to make the return higher. My expectation / hope, if we trade Donovan (I hope we don't) is that they get a 55 grade pitcher and a 55 grade OF prospects that are at AA in 2025, expected to start the 2026 season in Memphis and perhaps be ML ready during 2026 an at the latest 2027. Any return less than that is a collosal failure.