Why do we assume that trade Candidate suggestions will not be extended?

[Ozziesfan41]

Rolen was extended
Goldy was extended
McGwire was extended
Holliday was extended
Carp was extended

The ideal trade target is not gonna come with a seven year contract because that’s going to run into the nine figures. The ideal trade target will probably have two controlled years and need to be extended to continue to benefit us through our intended competitive window.

This is how we have built our team in the past, and this is how it will be rebuilt in addition to the minor league talent that we are developing. If the player is cost controlled and fills an area of need, it’s not too early to start acquiring and talking about extension possibilities. We certainly aren’t going to fill five rotation spots and three outfield spots with unproven prospects.

All those guys were brought on to contending teams and extended when the team was still contending. You don’t trade for a guy during a rebuild that you hope you can extend. You wait and sign them when they become free agents and you have a better idea where your team is and what direction the player’s career is heading.

This will never be a contending team if we don’t start making some calculated moves for veterans as part of the rebuilding process.

We need the chickens and the eggs. Those eggs aren’t going to lay themselves.

lol the team is rebuilding around players that suck like Gorman and walker it would be beyond dumb to trade prospects for a guy in the hopes you can extend him while surrounding him with players that suck that lengthens the time of the rebuild and doesn’t help win anything. They need to stockpile as many prospects as they can because if they have enough they will hit on several of them that’s when you add veterans once you have a young core. The cardinals right now have no good outfielders a terrible rotation no power hitters no middle of the order hitters and you want to trade prospects for someone you hope you can resign so you can build around him with Terrible players like Gorman and walker? That would be disastrously stupid

[ScotchMIrish]

Rolen was extended
Goldy was extended
McGwire was extended
Holliday was extended
Carp was extended

The ideal trade target is not gonna come with a seven year contract because that’s going to run into the nine figures. The ideal trade target will probably have two controlled years and need to be extended to continue to benefit us through our intended competitive window.

This is how we have built our team in the past, and this is how it will be rebuilt in addition to the minor league talent that we are developing. If the player is cost controlled and fills an area of need, it’s not too early to start acquiring and talking about extension possibilities. We certainly aren’t going to fill five rotation spots and three outfield spots with unproven prospects.

It could happen but remember we had more money from the tv deal back then and much better attendance. I'd like to see them keep Donovan but since Bloom leaked the fact that Donovan is being shopped it's tough to pull that back. Who else needs to be extended? Burleson?

[NYCardsFan]

Because a player who is 2 years away from reaching free agency for the first time is not going to give up that potentially financially life-changing opportunity unless the proposed extension roughly approximates (in years and dollars) what the player could otherwise get in the free agent market. The longer a team waits, the closer the player gets to freedom (and the lower the risk premium); the closer the player gets to freedom, the closer his reservation price gets to the market price.

And if you are a team that still seems to be in the early stages of a rebuild (and your new POBO pretty clearly indicates as much), signing 29-30 year old players to long term deals at free agent market prices doesn’t match up well with where you are in your competitive cycle.

The fallacy in your first paragraph - sometimes players like to lock in as many years as possible as early as possible due to the risk of injury and/or a drop in production. Sometimes they accept a discounted overall amount for that security.

How is it a "fallacy" when I made specific reference to the time-related shifting of dynamics ("only 2 years away"; "lower risk premium" the "closer the player gets to freedom")? As I stated in the post, it's a sliding scale: the closer the player gets to FA, the lower the risk premium and the worse the reward/risk ratio is for a discounted extension. In the later years of control, the team doesn't have nearly as much "security" to sell relative to the potentially life-changing payout in free agency. If a player is so concerned with mitigating risk and "locking in as many years as possible as early as possible," as you describe, then he optimally would do so when the reward/risk ratio is far more favorable earlier in his control years, which also happens to be the period of time when the team has the most "security" or insurance available to fold into a bigger extension discount. If you want to significantly extend young players at a meaningful discount, you have to do it early (sometimes uncomfortably early). Otherwise, as time goes on, the attractiveness to the player declines steadily the closer he gets to FA/freedom.

As many other posters have suggested to you, maybe try carefully reading posts before you respond to them.

[ramfandan]

Rolen was extended
Goldy was extended
McGwire was extended
Holliday was extended
Carp was extended

The ideal trade target is not gonna come with a seven year contract because that’s going to run into the nine figures. The ideal trade target will probably have two controlled years and need to be extended to continue to benefit us through our intended competitive window.

This is how we have built our team in the past, and this is how it will be rebuilt in addition to the minor league talent that we are developing. If the player is cost controlled and fills an area of need, it’s not too early to start acquiring and talking about extension possibilities. We certainly aren’t going to fill five rotation spots and three outfield spots with unproven prospects.

All those guys were brought on to contending teams and extended when the team was still contending. You don’t trade for a guy during a rebuild that you hope you can extend. You wait and sign them when they become free agents and you have a better idea where your team is and what direction the player’s career is heading.

This will never be a contending team if we don’t start making some calculated moves for veterans as part of the rebuilding process.

We need the chickens and the eggs. Those eggs aren’t going to lay themselves.

Remember when this team extended a former veteran named Matt Carpenter.'a chicken' . Speaking of the eggs , this franchise sure had plenty of 'egg' on their face after that disastrous move.

[Melville]

Rolen was extended
Goldy was extended
McGwire was extended
Holliday was extended
Carp was extended

The ideal trade target is not gonna come with a seven year contract because that’s going to run into the nine figures. The ideal trade target will probably have two controlled years and need to be extended to continue to benefit us through our intended competitive window.

This is how we have built our team in the past, and this is how it will be rebuilt in addition to the minor league talent that we are developing. If the player is cost controlled and fills an area of need, it’s not too early to start acquiring and talking about extension possibilities. We certainly aren’t going to fill five rotation spots and three outfield spots with unproven prospects.

Being the first and only person who, before he ever appeared in a Cardinals game, correctly identified Donovan would be the first young prospect of the group at the time to become a high-quality MLB player, I have regularly advised extending him.
STL should have done as I advised.
And that is still my position.
Donovan should be traded if he rejects an extension by next July.
I am confident STL will offer an extension (and perhaps already has) - and I am equally confident he will reject it.
Winn is an interesting case.
He is under control for 4 more years and will be just 28 when eligible for FA.
Might be worth signing him to a 7 year deal this off-season, depending on what it might look like.
He is a fairly safe bet.
Mootbaar and Walker should be traded, so no extension talks need to take place.

[mattmitchl44]

Because a player who is 2 years away from reaching free agency for the first time is not going to give up that potentially financially life-changing opportunity unless the proposed extension roughly approximates (in years and dollars) what the player could otherwise get in the free agent market. The longer a team waits, the closer the player gets to freedom (and the lower the risk premium); the closer the player gets to freedom, the closer his reservation price gets to the market price.

And if you are a team that still seems to be in the early stages of a rebuild (and your new POBO pretty clearly indicates as much), signing 29-30 year old players to long term deals at free agent market prices doesn’t match up well with where you are in your competitive cycle.

The fallacy in your first paragraph - sometimes players like to lock in as many years as possible as early as possible due to the risk of injury and/or a drop in production. Sometimes they accept a discounted overall amount for that security.

If they are a player of significance, and are being recognized as such in ARB, once they get past ARB-1 or ARB-2, they're probably "set for life". So if you are going to leverage that it is more like to do so after their 1st or 2nd year in the majors.

[zuck698]

Mo may be gone, but the dry powder is still there!

[Carp4Cy]

Rolen was extended
Goldy was extended
McGwire was extended
Holliday was extended
Carp was extended

The ideal trade target is not gonna come with a seven year contract because that’s going to run into the nine figures. The ideal trade target will probably have two controlled years and need to be extended to continue to benefit us through our intended competitive window.

This is how we have built our team in the past, and this is how it will be rebuilt in addition to the minor league talent that we are developing. If the player is cost controlled and fills an area of need, it’s not too early to start acquiring and talking about extension possibilities. We certainly aren’t going to fill five rotation spots and three outfield spots with unproven prospects.

All those guys were brought on to contending teams and extended when the team was still contending. You don’t trade for a guy during a rebuild that you hope you can extend. You wait and sign them when they become free agents and you have a better idea where your team is and what direction the player’s career is heading.

This will never be a contending team if we don’t start making some calculated moves for veterans as part of the rebuilding process.

We need the chickens and the eggs. Those eggs aren’t going to lay themselves.

lol the team is rebuilding around players that suck like Gorman and walker it would be beyond dumb to trade prospects for a guy in the hopes you can extend him while surrounding him with players that suck that lengthens the time of the rebuild and doesn’t help win anything. They need to stockpile as many prospects as they can because if they have enough they will hit on several of them that’s when you add veterans once you have a young core. The cardinals right now have no good outfielders a terrible rotation no power hitters no middle of the order hitters and you want to trade prospects for someone you hope you can resign so you can build around him with Terrible players like Gorman and walker? That would be disastrously stupid

No, you missed my point entirely. I want to trade Donovan and replace them with a very good prospect We already have. And in exchange get back a player of similar age and production at a position of need such as outfield or pitcher.

This is not dumb. This is how you get better and speed up the rebuild.

The idea of hoarding prospects that some other GM is actually willing to let go of after they’ve had multiple years to scout them in their own system is overrated. It will not return nearly as much as we hope.

[Ozziesfan41]

Because a player who is 2 years away from reaching free agency for the first time is not going to give up that potentially financially life-changing opportunity unless the proposed extension roughly approximates (in years and dollars) what the player could otherwise get in the free agent market. The longer a team waits, the closer the player gets to freedom (and the lower the risk premium); the closer the player gets to freedom, the closer his reservation price gets to the market price.

And if you are a team that still seems to be in the early stages of a rebuild (and your new POBO pretty clearly indicates as much), signing 29-30 year old players to long term deals at free agent market prices doesn’t match up well with where you are in your competitive cycle.

The fallacy in your first paragraph - sometimes players like to lock in as many years as possible as early as possible due to the risk of injury and/or a drop in production. Sometimes they accept a discounted overall amount for that security.

If they are a player of significance, and are being recognized as such in ARB, once they get past ARB-1 or ARB-2, they're probably "set for life". So if you are going to leverage that it is more like to do so after their 1st or 2nd year in the majors.

Yea if they are really good and you wait until they are a year or two from free agency you end up trading good prospects for a guy then he doesn’t want to sign your extension like the padres did with Soto or you trade good prospects just for the guy to walk in free agency like the cubs did with Tucker. It’s doesn’t matter though because it would be dumb for the cardinals to do it now because they would be trying to build around one good player with awful players like Gorman and walker and it would be a waste of that players years like they did trying to build around arenado and goldy with bad players and wasting their best years

[Carp4Cy]

Rolen was extended
Goldy was extended
McGwire was extended
Holliday was extended
Carp was extended

The ideal trade target is not gonna come with a seven year contract because that’s going to run into the nine figures. The ideal trade target will probably have two controlled years and need to be extended to continue to benefit us through our intended competitive window.

This is how we have built our team in the past, and this is how it will be rebuilt in addition to the minor league talent that we are developing. If the player is cost controlled and fills an area of need, it’s not too early to start acquiring and talking about extension possibilities. We certainly aren’t going to fill five rotation spots and three outfield spots with unproven prospects.

All those guys were brought on to contending teams and extended when the team was still contending. You don’t trade for a guy during a rebuild that you hope you can extend. You wait and sign them when they become free agents and you have a better idea where your team is and what direction the player’s career is heading.

This will never be a contending team if we don’t start making some calculated moves for veterans as part of the rebuilding process.

We need the chickens and the eggs. Those eggs aren’t going to lay themselves.

What are Contreras and Gray?

Keepers. For now. And only about 15% of the veterans the Dodgers employ. We need to add to them.

The dodgers aren’t rebuilding. Rebuilds focus on youth with just enough vets to mentor them. Then the vets are added to put a team over the top once you’re close without them.

If we’re trading Donovan for Gore or somebody similar, that is not adding vets. It’s just moving a position of surplus for a position of need with the option to extend further into the competitive window. That seems like a win-win.

The idea is if JJW plus a good pitcher produces more than Donovan plus Fedde, that gets us a lot closer and then maybe we do add a lot more pets in 27. It’s a process and this is part of the process, but you cant never actually start the process and use rebuilding as an excuse to just throw darts at random prospects. That will never get us to step two in the process.

[Melville]

Rolen was extended
Goldy was extended
McGwire was extended
Holliday was extended
Carp was extended

The ideal trade target is not gonna come with a seven year contract because that’s going to run into the nine figures. The ideal trade target will probably have two controlled years and need to be extended to continue to benefit us through our intended competitive window.

This is how we have built our team in the past, and this is how it will be rebuilt in addition to the minor league talent that we are developing. If the player is cost controlled and fills an area of need, it’s not too early to start acquiring and talking about extension possibilities. We certainly aren’t going to fill five rotation spots and three outfield spots with unproven prospects.

All those guys were brought on to contending teams and extended when the team was still contending. You don’t trade for a guy during a rebuild that you hope you can extend. You wait and sign them when they become free agents and you have a better idea where your team is and what direction the player’s career is heading.

This will never be a contending team if we don’t start making some calculated moves for veterans as part of the rebuilding process.

We need the chickens and the eggs. Those eggs aren’t going to lay themselves.

What are Contreras and Gray?

Keepers. For now. And only about 15% of the veterans the Dodgers employ. We need to add to them.

The dodgers aren’t rebuilding. Rebuilds focus on youth with just enough vets to mentor them. Then the vets are added to put a team over the top once you’re close without them.

If we’re trading Donovan for Gore or somebody similar, that is not adding vets. It’s just moving a position of surplus for a position of need with the option to extend further into the competitive window. That seems like a win-win.

The idea is if JJW plus a good pitcher produces more than Donovan plus Fedde, that gets us a lot closer and then maybe we do add a lot more pets in 27. It’s a process and this is part of the process, but you cant never actually start the process and use rebuilding as an excuse to just throw darts at random prospects. That will never get us to step two in the process.

If Donovan has no interest in an extension, and if Bloom indeed wants to shop him, talk to the Dodgers.
They reportedly have strong interest in Donovan.
Demand Pages in return.

[Carp4Cy]

Rolen was extended
Goldy was extended
McGwire was extended
Holliday was extended
Carp was extended

The ideal trade target is not gonna come with a seven year contract because that’s going to run into the nine figures. The ideal trade target will probably have two controlled years and need to be extended to continue to benefit us through our intended competitive window.

This is how we have built our team in the past, and this is how it will be rebuilt in addition to the minor league talent that we are developing. If the player is cost controlled and fills an area of need, it’s not too early to start acquiring and talking about extension possibilities. We certainly aren’t going to fill five rotation spots and three outfield spots with unproven prospects.

All those guys were brought on to contending teams and extended when the team was still contending. You don’t trade for a guy during a rebuild that you hope you can extend. You wait and sign them when they become free agents and you have a better idea where your team is and what direction the player’s career is heading.

This will never be a contending team if we don’t start making some calculated moves for veterans as part of the rebuilding process.

We need the chickens and the eggs. Those eggs aren’t going to lay themselves.

What are Contreras and Gray?

Keepers. For now. And only about 15% of the veterans the Dodgers employ. We need to add to them.

The dodgers aren’t rebuilding. Rebuilds focus on youth with just enough vets to mentor them. Then the vets are added to put a team over the top once you’re close without them.

If we’re trading Donovan for Gore or somebody similar, that is not adding vets. It’s just moving a position of surplus for a position of need with the option to extend further into the competitive window. That seems like a win-win.

The idea is if JJW plus a good pitcher produces more than Donovan plus Fedde, that gets us a lot closer and then maybe we do add a lot more pets in 27. It’s a process and this is part of the process, but you cant never actually start the process and use rebuilding as an excuse to just throw darts at random prospects. That will never get us to step two in the process.

If Donovan has no interest in an extension, and if Bloom indeed wants to shop him, talk to the Dodgers.
They reportedly have strong interest in Donovan.
Demand Pages in return.

I like this. But we need to plan on extending Pages. Maybe not immediately, but we can’t plan to flip him for a random prospect the July before free agency.

We should be targeting players who either end up with an extension offer or worst case a QO and a compensation draft pick because those are worth quite a bit- more than the vast majority of prospects.