Blues Goaltending - The Ugly Numbers

[Towelie]

The eye test thru 12 games has been bad, but the underlying numbers ... wow.

Per Naturalstattrick:

Scoring chance save % - 74.66% (worst in League). League average 84.31%, league leader 88.76% (Columbus)

High danger shot save % - 65.85% (worst in league). League avg 80.9%, Leader 88.73 (Utah)

Medium danger shot save % - 85.94% (18th overall). League avg 86.73

Low danger shot save % - 91.73% (worst in league). League avg 96.18%, Leader 98.69 (Dallas)

Overall save % - 83.71% (worst in league - next is Ottawa at 84.64 then Toronto at 87.25%). League avg is 89.33, best is 91.83 (Jets)

They have made the fewest "big" saves and have given up the most "bad" goals. Impossible combination to overcome, and the record reflects that.

For those who think the Blues defense has let the goalies down, their high danger shots against is 82, which is 7th fewest in the league. Medium chance shots against is 64, fewest in the league. Low danger shots are the 10th fewest. I believe the Columbus game was the only game where they gave up 30 or more shots.

Per Naturalstattrick, goals against for the year is 50. Expected goals against is 32.4. That is a 17.6 difference in just 12 games. They could have traded Texier for Draisaitl and still not have a big enough offense boost to make up for the goaltending.

I am not down on Binnington and Hofer for the long term, as the track records are there. It is just difficult when both goalies are going through major confidence issues at the same time. Perhaps the Columbus game was a step in the right direction. While Hofer did give up a low danger goal (and 2 high danger goals), he did make 5 high danger stops and 32 saves overall. That said, Greaves for Columbus went 14 for 14 on high danger chances and gave up no bad goals.

In the end, I am just humored by all the threads complaining about or blaming various skaters for the bad start. If you listed the top 10 reasons for the Blues' start, goaltending would be 1 thru 8 on the list. Goaltenders are on the ice for virtually the entire game. When he is one of the worst players on the ice (which has been the case for about 8 of the 12 games) you simply cannot win unless the opponent goalie returns the favor.

[John Cocktoastin]

Appreciate the research and the data - the eye test is one thing, but when it's distilled like this, much easier to see some of the cracks and flaws.

Reminds me of Jake Allen when he would give up that easy, first goal. Sucked the life out of the team.

[Sudsy 11]

Nice research! Agreed goaltending has been #1 issue, but will disagree still thinking that the defensive has had issues. As someone who works with numbers, they are only as good as what is inputted. For example, those high grade chances could have a big window. My eye test tells me the Blues have allowed too many VERY High grade chances. Even accepting the stats, that 17 goal difference would only leave the team at even for goal scored/against. They are going to need to play better than break even goal differential the rest of the way to get back in the playoff race.