The lesson of the Dodgers-Brewers series

[mattmitchl44]

Until/unless something significant changes in the structure of MLB (like a hard salary cap at $275 million or so), a team like the Cardinals is going to have to expect to go through at least one team like the Dodgers (maybe even two or more if the Yankees, Mets, Phillies, etc. can do more to replicate what the Dodgers are doing) if they are going to win another World Series anytime soon.

Even if/when the Cardinals raise payroll back to $180-$200 million at some point in the future, how do they have the talent to be remotely close to a team like the Dodgers to give themselves a chance in a 5 or 7 game series?

They will never just be able to spend their way there. They will always be way behind a team like the Dodgers by just trying to brute force spend their way to another title because so many teams simply have more to spend than the Cardinals ever will.

So, given that reality, the Cardinals only choice to reach something close to parity with the Dodgers-like teams is to commit 100% to developing an exceptional amount of young, cost controlled talent that lets their $180-$200 million payroll "play up" to the level of the teams like the Dodgers.

[Bully4you]

There's a lot of luck in baseball.
Dodgers won't always win.

[11WSChamps]

Until/unless something significant changes in the structure of MLB (like a hard salary cap at $275 million or so), a team like the Cardinals is going to have to expect to go through at least one team like the Dodgers (maybe even two or more if the Yankees, Mets, Phillies, etc. can do more to replicate what the Dodgers are doing) if they are going to win another World Series anytime soon.

Even if/when the Cardinals raise payroll back to $180-$200 million at some point in the future, how do they have the talent to be remotely close to a team like the Dodgers to give themselves a chance in a 5 or 7 game series?

They will never just be able to spend their way there. They will always be way behind a team like the Dodgers by just trying to brute force spend their way to another title because so many teams simply have more to spend than the Cardinals ever will.

So, given that reality, the Cardinals only choice to reach something close to parity with the Dodgers-like teams is to commit 100% to developing an exceptional amount of young, cost controlled talent that lets their $180-$200 million payroll "play up" to the level of the teams like the Dodgers.

Good luck with that.

You have to hit the jackpot with a lot of draft picks and shrewd deals for diamond in tge rough prospects.

Even Pujols was a late round pick everybody passed over.

Even in the heyday of the 60's and the 80's how many of those cornerstone players were home grown?

Brock, Flood and Cepeda came from different organizations as did Ozzie and Jack Clark just to name a few.

The organization did produce some of its own but not what you would call a generational talent like Pujols.

Yes I understand that scouting, international resources and ways to evaluate players is different now but unless you stink it up enough to continually get top 5 draft picks and even then be fortunate to hit on a percentage of them it's not going to be enough.

[Rojo Johnson]

I think Bill is teaching the fan base a valuable lesson. Which is, money is ruining the sport and there is no sense pretending it’s not. These rich teams will mostly predominate every year and there is no way teams like the Cards will ever compete without blind luck. So, why try? We are the next Pittsburgh or Kansas City without a salary cap. Bill waits to see what his fellow owners are going to do after next season. If no cap, Bill will simply watch the value of his investment plummet into the abyss and will continue to use his minor league teams to populate the Cards.

[MIDMOBIRDTWO]

Brewers brought pop guns to fight cannons and flame throwers. The end.

[mattmitchl44]

Until/unless something significant changes in the structure of MLB (like a hard salary cap at $275 million or so), a team like the Cardinals is going to have to expect to go through at least one team like the Dodgers (maybe even two or more if the Yankees, Mets, Phillies, etc. can do more to replicate what the Dodgers are doing) if they are going to win another World Series anytime soon.

Even if/when the Cardinals raise payroll back to $180-$200 million at some point in the future, how do they have the talent to be remotely close to a team like the Dodgers to give themselves a chance in a 5 or 7 game series?

They will never just be able to spend their way there. They will always be way behind a team like the Dodgers by just trying to brute force spend their way to another title because so many teams simply have more to spend than the Cardinals ever will.

So, given that reality, the Cardinals only choice to reach something close to parity with the Dodgers-like teams is to commit 100% to developing an exceptional amount of young, cost controlled talent that lets their $180-$200 million payroll "play up" to the level of the teams like the Dodgers.

Good luck with that.

“When you have eliminated all which is impossible, then whatever remains, however improbable, must be the truth.”

It should just be clear that developing a critical mass of young, cost controlled players is the "cake" of any future Cardinals' championship, while spending on any small number of expensive FAs will only be the "icing." Not the other way around.

Fans tend to want to define an "era" by the expensive stars on the team (Pujols-Edmonds-Rolen; Goldschmidt-Arenado-Gray; etc.), but that perspective can mistakenly convolute the "icing" for the "cake" in the current reality.

[dugoutrex]

the lesson I learned is that I love seeing them brewers get smacked down!

[rockondlouie]

Lessen I learned is you CAN'T build a World Series team strictly through your farm system.

You need both internal players developed, a smart POBO AND a strong payroll.

Dodgers prove that given the only true 2025 impact players they developed are W. Smith and A. Pages (C. Kershaw is well past his prime).

The rest are of course international signings, trade acquisitions and free agents.

For the Cardinals to become WS caliber again, BDWJr will have to up the payroll to $200M.

JMO

[mattmitchl44]

You need both internal players developed, a smart POBO AND a strong payroll.

We agree.

However, as noted, the core of young, cost controlled players has to be the "cake" and a few expensive veterans paid for with the $180-$200 million payroll is the "icing".

And you have to bake the cake first before you worry about adding the icing.

[82birds]

Brewers brought pop guns to fight cannons and flame throwers. The end.

that's about it

[rockondlouie]

You need both internal players developed, a smart POBO AND a strong payroll.

We agree.

However, as noted, the core of young, cost controlled players has to be the "cake" and a few expensive veterans paid for with the $180-$200 million payroll is the "icing".

And you have to bake the cake first before you worry about adding the icing.

The "cake" is well ahead of schedule if we're to believe fangraphs.

Winter 2025/2026 will be roster evaluation time, culling out the deadwood, making trades to add more prospects to the system who are close to being major league ready and some small free agent signings.

After the new CBA is agreed to, 2027 is the year for BDWJr to start upping the payroll.

I think the "re-build" is much farther along than most think.

Some smart moves by C. Bloom and the Cardinals could be back in the playoffs sooner than later.

But being a true WS contender will take more time and whole lotta money from BDWJr.

[Clubmaker2]

the brewers build their team via trades. Most of their players are not ones they drafted and kept.

[Alex Reyes Cy Young]

Brewers brought pop guns to fight cannons and flame throwers. The end.

K per 9 is everything. Need to get as many high octane arms in IMO. Could care less if they are starters matters not. Of course starters are better gets but this team needs that just to compete.

[BrummerStealsHome]

A lot of people draw the conclusion that grossly outspending the rest of the league is the key to winning pennants. Fine. But in your defense of that, please explain why the Yankees and Phillies did not make the LCS and the Mets didn't even make the playoffs. Sure, exhorbitant payrolls allows teams to add key pieces other teams can't. That puts them in contention where they otherwise might not be. But it isn't the deciding factor. Seattle is 16th, (bottom half, albeit the top of it). Toronto is a respectable 5th.

As much as i hate the Trolley Dodgers, I tip my cap to them for spending wisely and keeping player development as part of their equation. Other big market teams might spend like drunken sailors, but LA exhibits some sobriety.

[Alex Reyes Cy Young]

A lot of people draw the conclusion that grossly outspending the rest of the league is the key to winning pennants. Fine. But in your defense of that, please explain why the Yankees and Phillies did not make the LCS and the Mets didn't even make the playoffs. Sure, exhorbitant payrolls allows teams to add key pieces other teams can't. That puts them in contention where they otherwise might not be. But it isn't the deciding factor. Seattle is 16th, (bottom half, albeit the top of it). Toronto is a respectable 5th.

As much as i hate the Trolley Dodgers, I tip my cap to them for spending wisely and keeping player development as part of their equation. Other big market teams might spend like drunken sailors, but LA exhibits some sobriety.

Excellent post.

[11WSChamps]

Until/unless something significant changes in the structure of MLB (like a hard salary cap at $275 million or so), a team like the Cardinals is going to have to expect to go through at least one team like the Dodgers (maybe even two or more if the Yankees, Mets, Phillies, etc. can do more to replicate what the Dodgers are doing) if they are going to win another World Series anytime soon.

Even if/when the Cardinals raise payroll back to $180-$200 million at some point in the future, how do they have the talent to be remotely close to a team like the Dodgers to give themselves a chance in a 5 or 7 game series?

They will never just be able to spend their way there. They will always be way behind a team like the Dodgers by just trying to brute force spend their way to another title because so many teams simply have more to spend than the Cardinals ever will.

So, given that reality, the Cardinals only choice to reach something close to parity with the Dodgers-like teams is to commit 100% to developing an exceptional amount of young, cost controlled talent that lets their $180-$200 million payroll "play up" to the level of the teams like the Dodgers.

Good luck with that.

“When you have eliminated all which is impossible, then whatever remains, however improbable, must be the truth.”

It should just be clear that developing a critical mass of young, cost controlled players is the "cake" of any future Cardinals' championship, while spending on any small number of expensive FAs will only be the "icing." Not the other way around.

Fans tend to want to define an "era" by the expensive stars on the team (Pujols-Edmonds-Rolen; Goldschmidt-Arenado-Gray; etc.), but that perspective can mistakenly convolute the "icing" for the "cake" in the current reality.

The "reality" is when has this franchise won a WS without generational talent?

I've never said we have to spend with bluebloods.

The Royals are the only team in recent memory that hit on enough players sprinkled with a few veterans to win a championship and how many years did they have to be awful before that happened to acquire those draft picks and how many of them never panned out?

You can quote all the nonsense you want but you're in over your head here.