Fangraphs Ranks Cardinals system #1

[rockondlouie]

several things (early apologies for length) :

1) Jimmy Crooks III, Tink Hence and Quinn Mathews in the Top 100...should tell you a lot about it: Fangraphs' lazy/poor ranking system, and/or the quality of prospects in all of the minor leagues (all 30 orgs)...I'll let you choose...but the right answer is : a bit of both...but leaning towards "Crooks, Hence, Mathews"....come on, they shouldn't be in the Top 100...Fangraphs missed big time there...no one else has them ranked Top 100.

2) Trades in the last 3 seasons have been a huge reason for our rise....specifically, and I've been arguing/shouting this for it seems like a decade : Our mid tier or "C" Tier propects (35, 35+, 40, and 40+) prospects have been sorely lacking. Even when we were severely top heavy and ranked a Top 10 farm system in 2021 with Walker, Winn, Donovan, Hence we were starving for mid tier prospects. Crooks, Hjerpe, Bernal helped ...but 2 of those graduated to B tier and B+tier, while the other became "The Elbow". We also had several high prospects flounder or graduate and no one was there to take their place...that happens in every system (most notably the Cubs the last 2 seasons, extremely top heavy and no one to take their Super 7's place in the rankings)

Like I said "Trades"....we picked up Roby, Saggese (graduated), Jesus Baez, Blaze Jordan, Mason Molina, Nate Dohm, Robberse, Rom, Svanson.....that was a large chunk of Mid Tier prospects injected to our system the last 3 seasons.

3) Rule 5 drafting got MUCH better...Ryan Fernandez, Miguel Ugueto, Ricardo Velez, etc

4) Steady train of QUALITY DSL prospects coming stateside....and we didn't overspend to do it...save Strop, we did pay a pretty penny for him. Hunter, De Los Santos, Padilla and Rodriguez ....The Brewers' recent MLB success and Prospect Rankings are highly attributed to 2-3 DSL players making the Bigs and climbing the Prospect rankings every 2-3 seasons...we're starting to see that with the Cards. Oh....and their DSL pitching is about to get a smidge better.... Branneli Franco's 2nd season was a vast improvement over his first season...he's probably stateside in the FCL next year. Leonel Sequera was a surprising gem with Palm Beach this year....Peoria test coming up, we'll see how the 6'0" does.

5) Lastly...remarkable improvement the last 2 years on the developmental side (only thing I can HONESTLY give credit to Bloom and Bloom alone).... the likes of Church, Mautz, Hansen, Josh Baez, Mathews (gaining 3 MPH on FB, in 2024 vs. College) improving significantly the last 2 years that all helped.

Give credit to Mo for Rule 5 drafting, Bloom for the R&D part, Mo for the Trades from 2023-2025, and someone needs credit for the Sudden influx of quality talent from the DSL since 2024...not sure what happened there....we had a LONG drought from there...all the hitters turned into 600 OPS free swingers, or crashed and burned as pitchers in Peoria.

we still need HUGE help in drafting...the scouting department needs an overhaul...we've had a few gems like Mathews and Ortiz the last two drafts (23,24)....it's not hard to draft JJ and Doyle when you have Top 10 picks...picking for Dummies, anyone can do that. But we've had too many Hjerpe, Davis, Holiday, Honeywell, Campos, etc for me to stomach

Thx duce

Been waiting for your analysis

[An Old Friend]

Then the adjectives that were used to describe the state
of the Cardinals system were slightly overblown. A position
that I still hold.

Disagree.

They added two high ceiling picks in Wetherholt and Doyle that sent them up the board. They are the two 55’s referenced.

[Red Bird Classic]

If you read the details, Fan Graphs only project 2 Cardinal prospects to be better than average major league players. 5 are projected to be average, and the other 42 below average Major League players.

It's a step in the right direction, but if they're right, we don't have any prospects with a 60 or greater projection.

[ICCFIM2]

several things (early apologies for length) :

1) Jimmy Crooks III, Tink Hence and Quinn Mathews in the Top 100...should tell you a lot about it: Fangraphs' lazy/poor ranking system, and/or the quality of prospects in all of the minor leagues (all 30 orgs)...I'll let you choose...but the right answer is : a bit of both...but leaning towards "Crooks, Hence, Mathews"....come on, they shouldn't be in the Top 100...Fangraphs missed big time there...no one else has them ranked Top 100.

2) Trades in the last 3 seasons have been a huge reason for our rise....specifically, and I've been arguing/shouting this for it seems like a decade : Our mid tier or "C" Tier propects (35, 35+, 40, and 40+) prospects have been sorely lacking. Even when we were severely top heavy and ranked a Top 10 farm system in 2021 with Walker, Winn, Donovan, Hence we were starving for mid tier prospects. Crooks, Hjerpe, Bernal helped ...but 2 of those graduated to B tier and B+tier, while the other became "The Elbow". We also had several high prospects flounder or graduate and no one was there to take their place...that happens in every system (most notably the Cubs the last 2 seasons, extremely top heavy and no one to take their Super 7's place in the rankings)

Like I said "Trades"....we picked up Roby, Saggese (graduated), Jesus Baez, Blaze Jordan, Mason Molina, Nate Dohm, Robberse, Rom, Svanson.....that was a large chunk of Mid Tier prospects injected to our system the last 3 seasons.

3) Rule 5 drafting got MUCH better...Ryan Fernandez, Miguel Ugueto, Ricardo Velez, etc

4) Steady train of QUALITY DSL prospects coming stateside....and we didn't overspend to do it...save Strop, we did pay a pretty penny for him. Hunter, De Los Santos, Padilla and Rodriguez ....The Brewers' recent MLB success and Prospect Rankings are highly attributed to 2-3 DSL players making the Bigs and climbing the Prospect rankings every 2-3 seasons...we're starting to see that with the Cards. Oh....and their DSL pitching is about to get a smidge better.... Branneli Franco's 2nd season was a vast improvement over his first season...he's probably stateside in the FCL next year. Leonel Sequera was a surprising gem with Palm Beach this year....Peoria test coming up, we'll see how the 6'0" does.

5) Lastly...remarkable improvement the last 2 years on the developmental side (only thing I can HONESTLY give credit to Bloom and Bloom alone).... the likes of Church, Mautz, Hansen, Josh Baez, Mathews (gaining 3 MPH on FB, in 2024 vs. College) improving significantly the last 2 years that all helped.

Give credit to Mo for Rule 5 drafting, Bloom for the R&D part, Mo for the Trades from 2023-2025, and someone needs credit for the Sudden influx of quality talent from the DSL since 2024...not sure what happened there....we had a LONG drought from there...all the hitters turned into 600 OPS free swingers, or crashed and burned as pitchers in Peoria.

we still need HUGE help in drafting...the scouting department needs an overhaul...we've had a few gems like Mathews and Ortiz the last two drafts (23,24)....it's not hard to draft JJ and Doyle when you have Top 10 picks...picking for Dummies, anyone can do that. But we've had too many Hjerpe, Davis, Holiday, Honeywell, Campos, etc for me to stomach

Is Josh Baez someone we can place hope in?

Is Guerrero's assessment of Henderson as a #4 or #5 correct?

Is his further assessment of Mautz and Hansen as BP pieces or even pitchers they won't protect from the rule 5 draft this year correct?

Just asking to see if your opinion is different. It seems like these 4 guys could potentially be more near term help than some of the other mid level prospects we have if their ceiling is higher than Guerrero suggested.

[craviduce]

several things (early apologies for length) :

1) Jimmy Crooks III, Tink Hence and Quinn Mathews in the Top 100...should tell you a lot about it: Fangraphs' lazy/poor ranking system, and/or the quality of prospects in all of the minor leagues (all 30 orgs)...I'll let you choose...but the right answer is : a bit of both...but leaning towards "Crooks, Hence, Mathews"....come on, they shouldn't be in the Top 100...Fangraphs missed big time there...no one else has them ranked Top 100.

2) Trades in the last 3 seasons have been a huge reason for our rise....specifically, and I've been arguing/shouting this for it seems like a decade : Our mid tier or "C" Tier propects (35, 35+, 40, and 40+) prospects have been sorely lacking. Even when we were severely top heavy and ranked a Top 10 farm system in 2021 with Walker, Winn, Donovan, Hence we were starving for mid tier prospects. Crooks, Hjerpe, Bernal helped ...but 2 of those graduated to B tier and B+tier, while the other became "The Elbow". We also had several high prospects flounder or graduate and no one was there to take their place...that happens in every system (most notably the Cubs the last 2 seasons, extremely top heavy and no one to take their Super 7's place in the rankings)

Like I said "Trades"....we picked up Roby, Saggese (graduated), Jesus Baez, Blaze Jordan, Mason Molina, Nate Dohm, Robberse, Rom, Svanson.....that was a large chunk of Mid Tier prospects injected to our system the last 3 seasons.

3) Rule 5 drafting got MUCH better...Ryan Fernandez, Miguel Ugueto, Ricardo Velez, etc

4) Steady train of QUALITY DSL prospects coming stateside....and we didn't overspend to do it...save Strop, we did pay a pretty penny for him. Hunter, De Los Santos, Padilla and Rodriguez ....The Brewers' recent MLB success and Prospect Rankings are highly attributed to 2-3 DSL players making the Bigs and climbing the Prospect rankings every 2-3 seasons...we're starting to see that with the Cards. Oh....and their DSL pitching is about to get a smidge better.... Branneli Franco's 2nd season was a vast improvement over his first season...he's probably stateside in the FCL next year. Leonel Sequera was a surprising gem with Palm Beach this year....Peoria test coming up, we'll see how the 6'0" does.

5) Lastly...remarkable improvement the last 2 years on the developmental side (only thing I can HONESTLY give credit to Bloom and Bloom alone).... the likes of Church, Mautz, Hansen, Josh Baez, Mathews (gaining 3 MPH on FB, in 2024 vs. College) improving significantly the last 2 years that all helped.

Give credit to Mo for Rule 5 drafting, Bloom for the R&D part, Mo for the Trades from 2023-2025, and someone needs credit for the Sudden influx of quality talent from the DSL since 2024...not sure what happened there....we had a LONG drought from there...all the hitters turned into 600 OPS free swingers, or crashed and burned as pitchers in Peoria.

we still need HUGE help in drafting...the scouting department needs an overhaul...we've had a few gems like Mathews and Ortiz the last two drafts (23,24)....it's not hard to draft JJ and Doyle when you have Top 10 picks...picking for Dummies, anyone can do that. But we've had too many Hjerpe, Davis, Holiday, Honeywell, Campos, etc for me to stomach

Is Josh Baez someone we can place hope in?

Is Guerrero's assessment of Henderson as a #4 or #5 correct?

Is his further assessment of Mautz and Hansen as BP pieces or even pitchers they won't protect from the rule 5 draft this year correct?

Just asking to see if your opinion is different. It seems like these 4 guys could potentially be more near term help than some of the other mid level prospects we have if their ceiling is higher than Guerrero suggested.

1) The fan base is going to place faith in Josh Baez no matter what we say , that's what we/they do...blind faith, it's part of being a fan. You'll know come his 2nd month of AAA if the late 2024 swing change will work in the BIGS. There are hints right now to be excited about...he's FINALLY hitting like he did on all those allstar tours as a High Schooler....he's not selling out with his swings, he's getting more line drives and hard grounders than he's ever gotten in previous years...less flyballs too, if you can believe that, but that's the stats, they don't lie. Still waiting on the AAA offspeeds, which are a ton better than AA offspeeds.

2. Talkin Baseball and I had a convo on Henderson's ceiling/floor 3 months ago? And I put Henderson as 4 or 5...outside chance at a 3, but not likely...not on a good team, maybe on a bad team...I hope we're not a bad team when he gets to the Org. He could have a few output years like a 3, but that's not his makeup

3. Mautz and Hansen are BP pieces...most likely, yes...I stand by my assessment at the beginning of the year on both. Hansen doesn't have the fastball to start...he may amp that up in the BP, though. Mautz is very susceptible to the longball, but made incredible strides to fix that.. He may be the one you choose to protect, though. He opened the cupboard, so to speak, on starting in the majors. I had him as a 2 IP guy, Hansen as Loogy (if those still exist).....Mautz might push the envelop and start. We'll see. I'm highly encouraged by his 2025 season...Texas League is a tough, too. But I want to see him do it against AAA teams with good/great prospects and seasoned veterans like Nashville, Indy, Lehigh, Norfolk, Jacksonville, Toledo (do we play them this year?), and Charlotte.

The good thing...and I've been putting together some data on this....we're more stocked and in a better trade position when it comes to LHP...than we are with Catcher. I wouldn't touch our catchers just yet...we still need to develop pitchers in the minors. We need good catchers to do that....we have a little time there. If you must trade...the trade is between Bernal and Crooks. Bernal's best at LHB, so he probably won't be allowed to hit from the Right. That makes Crooks redundant....or Bernal redundant, whatever your cup of tea. Trade one, don't keep both...if you must "trade" a catcher. Keep Pages....he's RHB. Platoon the two.....or keep Bernal in AAA, he's never been there and the AAA pitchers need a great catcher to work with.

We have Mathews, Doyle, Crossland, Henderson, Mautz, Davis, Findlay, Molina, Hjerpe.......they're not all going to be starting for the Cardinals, nor in the BP. But they could/might for another team. They all have a major league future.

Let's not forget Thompson and Liberatore...and Rom.

I say...trade your best depth...we have the best depth you could possibly want....LHP. SS would be next, RHP would be after that...Catcher is 5th, imo...behind CF. Right now we have LHP and Catcher....1 and 5. Need to work on the RHP and CF. SS is doing better than expected.... Padilla, Baez looking alright so far.

[imetsatchelpaige]

Fangraphs has 7 Cardinals in the top 100

9 JJ Wetherholt
19 Liam Doyle
40 Leonardo Bernal
71 Rainiel Rodriguez
77 Jimmy Crooks
83 Quinn Mathews
87 Tink Hence

Our list of our untouchable BSO's (bright shiny objects)

[Carp4Cy]

FanGraphs has ranked the St. Louis Cardinals' minor league system as the #1 farm system in baseball. This high ranking is attributed to a combination of strong prospect ratings and the expected contribution from their talented minor league players.

The Cardinals have a deep and talented farm system, with FanGraphs identifying 49 prospects rated as 35 future value players or higher.
According to the rankings, the system includes two players rated as 55-grade prospects and five players rated as 50-grades.

This top ranking is also a result of recent moves at the trade deadline and success in the MLB Draft, which helped to restock the minor league system with talent.

The Cardinals' farm system is considered to be in the best shape it has been in years, with the new president of baseball operations, Chaim Bloom, set to oversee the organization's future.

https://www.fangraphs.com/prospects/far ... m-rankings

That is overly generous. Other teams minors must really suck

The rankings seem to be highly influenced by who already has or hasn't been promoted from recent first rounds. For example - Kurtz, Cam Smith, and Chase Burns have already promoted out of the farms since 2024 draft buw JJW was held down and is still a prospect. As soon as we promote him our ranking will take a dive.

[ICCFIM2]

several things (early apologies for length) :

1) Jimmy Crooks III, Tink Hence and Quinn Mathews in the Top 100...should tell you a lot about it: Fangraphs' lazy/poor ranking system, and/or the quality of prospects in all of the minor leagues (all 30 orgs)...I'll let you choose...but the right answer is : a bit of both...but leaning towards "Crooks, Hence, Mathews"....come on, they shouldn't be in the Top 100...Fangraphs missed big time there...no one else has them ranked Top 100.

2) Trades in the last 3 seasons have been a huge reason for our rise....specifically, and I've been arguing/shouting this for it seems like a decade : Our mid tier or "C" Tier propects (35, 35+, 40, and 40+) prospects have been sorely lacking. Even when we were severely top heavy and ranked a Top 10 farm system in 2021 with Walker, Winn, Donovan, Hence we were starving for mid tier prospects. Crooks, Hjerpe, Bernal helped ...but 2 of those graduated to B tier and B+tier, while the other became "The Elbow". We also had several high prospects flounder or graduate and no one was there to take their place...that happens in every system (most notably the Cubs the last 2 seasons, extremely top heavy and no one to take their Super 7's place in the rankings)

Like I said "Trades"....we picked up Roby, Saggese (graduated), Jesus Baez, Blaze Jordan, Mason Molina, Nate Dohm, Robberse, Rom, Svanson.....that was a large chunk of Mid Tier prospects injected to our system the last 3 seasons.

3) Rule 5 drafting got MUCH better...Ryan Fernandez, Miguel Ugueto, Ricardo Velez, etc

4) Steady train of QUALITY DSL prospects coming stateside....and we didn't overspend to do it...save Strop, we did pay a pretty penny for him. Hunter, De Los Santos, Padilla and Rodriguez ....The Brewers' recent MLB success and Prospect Rankings are highly attributed to 2-3 DSL players making the Bigs and climbing the Prospect rankings every 2-3 seasons...we're starting to see that with the Cards. Oh....and their DSL pitching is about to get a smidge better.... Branneli Franco's 2nd season was a vast improvement over his first season...he's probably stateside in the FCL next year. Leonel Sequera was a surprising gem with Palm Beach this year....Peoria test coming up, we'll see how the 6'0" does.

5) Lastly...remarkable improvement the last 2 years on the developmental side (only thing I can HONESTLY give credit to Bloom and Bloom alone).... the likes of Church, Mautz, Hansen, Josh Baez, Mathews (gaining 3 MPH on FB, in 2024 vs. College) improving significantly the last 2 years that all helped.

Give credit to Mo for Rule 5 drafting, Bloom for the R&D part, Mo for the Trades from 2023-2025, and someone needs credit for the Sudden influx of quality talent from the DSL since 2024...not sure what happened there....we had a LONG drought from there...all the hitters turned into 600 OPS free swingers, or crashed and burned as pitchers in Peoria.

we still need HUGE help in drafting...the scouting department needs an overhaul...we've had a few gems like Mathews and Ortiz the last two drafts (23,24)....it's not hard to draft JJ and Doyle when you have Top 10 picks...picking for Dummies, anyone can do that. But we've had too many Hjerpe, Davis, Holiday, Honeywell, Campos, etc for me to stomach

Is Josh Baez someone we can place hope in?

Is Guerrero's assessment of Henderson as a #4 or #5 correct?

Is his further assessment of Mautz and Hansen as BP pieces or even pitchers they won't protect from the rule 5 draft this year correct?

Just asking to see if your opinion is different. It seems like these 4 guys could potentially be more near term help than some of the other mid level prospects we have if their ceiling is higher than Guerrero suggested.

1) The fan base is going to place faith in Josh Baez no matter what we say , that's what we/they do...blind faith, it's part of being a fan. You'll know come his 2nd month of AAA if the late 2024 swing change will work in the BIGS. There are hints right now to be excited about...he's FINALLY hitting like he did on all those allstar tours as a High Schooler....he's not selling out with his swings, he's getting more line drives and hard grounders than he's ever gotten in previous years...less flyballs too, if you can believe that, but that's the stats, they don't lie. Still waiting on the AAA offspeeds, which are a ton better than AA offspeeds.

2. Talkin Baseball and I had a convo on Henderson's ceiling/floor 3 months ago? And I put Henderson as 4 or 5...outside chance at a 3, but not likely...not on a good team, maybe on a bad team...I hope we're not a bad team when he gets to the Org. He could have a few output years like a 3, but that's not his makeup

3. Mautz and Hansen are BP pieces...most likely, yes...I stand by my assessment at the beginning of the year on both. Hansen doesn't have the fastball to start...he may amp that up in the BP, though. Mautz is very susceptible to the longball, but made incredible strides to fix that.. He may be the one you choose to protect, though. He opened the cupboard, so to speak, on starting in the majors. I had him as a 2 IP guy, Hansen as Loogy (if those still exist).....Mautz might push the envelop and start. We'll see. I'm highly encouraged by his 2025 season...Texas League is a tough, too. But I want to see him do it against AAA teams with good/great prospects and seasoned veterans like Nashville, Indy, Lehigh, Norfolk, Jacksonville, Toledo (do we play them this year?), and Charlotte.

The good thing...and I've been putting together some data on this....we're more stocked and in a better trade position when it comes to LHP...than we are with Catcher. I wouldn't touch our catchers just yet...we still need to develop pitchers in the minors. We need good catchers to do that....we have a little time there. If you must trade...the trade is between Bernal and Crooks. Bernal's best at LHB, so he probably won't be allowed to hit from the Right. That makes Crooks redundant....or Bernal redundant, whatever your cup of tea. Trade one, don't keep both...if you must "trade" a catcher. Keep Pages....he's RHB. Platoon the two.....or keep Bernal in AAA, he's never been there and the AAA pitchers need a great catcher to work with.

We have Mathews, Doyle, Crossland, Henderson, Mautz, Davis, Findlay, Molina, Hjerpe.......they're not all going to be starting for the Cardinals, nor in the BP. But they could/might for another team. They all have a major league future.

Let's not forget Thompson and Liberatore...and Rom.

I say...trade your best depth...we have the best depth you could possibly want....LHP. SS would be next, RHP would be after that...Catcher is 5th, imo...behind CF. Right now we have LHP and Catcher....1 and 5. Need to work on the RHP and CF. SS is doing better than expected.... Padilla, Baez looking alright so far.

Thanks, that is a great rundown. I agree with more or less all of that. I know you watch these games so you have a better feel for who they are than just watching highlights. Also, good observation on the difference in the leagues. Most people don't realize that the average ML SP is probably 2-3X better than the average AAA starter, which is how a Jordan Walker happens...

Thompson could be our darkhorse in 2026 if he can be healthy. I did not forget him. I am sure it will be his last chance though.

I do agree they need to trade some quantity for quality if they can. I am OK with keeping Pages even if others are not.

I have also wondered whether the Cards will adopt the Tampa model and not sign a guy like Winn to an extension and try to make Padilla the next SS. Then try to trade Winn for a haul after say the 2027/2028 season.

Should be an interesting offseason. Thank you again.

[Clubmaker2]

this farm hasnt reduced a starting pitcher but a number 4 mcgreevy in what, 3 years lol, and what starting outfielder did it produce, and yet it is ranked .....maybe they should actually have to produce something of impact

[VegasVinny]

several things (early apologies for length) :

1) Jimmy Crooks III, Tink Hence and Quinn Mathews in the Top 100...should tell you a lot about it: Fangraphs' lazy/poor ranking system, and/or the quality of prospects in all of the minor leagues (all 30 orgs)...I'll let you choose...but the right answer is : a bit of both...but leaning towards "Crooks, Hence, Mathews"....come on, they shouldn't be in the Top 100...Fangraphs missed big time there...no one else has them ranked Top 100.

2) Trades in the last 3 seasons have been a huge reason for our rise....specifically, and I've been arguing/shouting this for it seems like a decade : Our mid tier or "C" Tier propects (35, 35+, 40, and 40+) prospects have been sorely lacking. Even when we were severely top heavy and ranked a Top 10 farm system in 2021 with Walker, Winn, Donovan, Hence we were starving for mid tier prospects. Crooks, Hjerpe, Bernal helped ...but 2 of those graduated to B tier and B+tier, while the other became "The Elbow". We also had several high prospects flounder or graduate and no one was there to take their place...that happens in every system (most notably the Cubs the last 2 seasons, extremely top heavy and no one to take their Super 7's place in the rankings)

Like I said "Trades"....we picked up Roby, Saggese (graduated), Jesus Baez, Blaze Jordan, Mason Molina, Nate Dohm, Robberse, Rom, Svanson.....that was a large chunk of Mid Tier prospects injected to our system the last 3 seasons.

3) Rule 5 drafting got MUCH better...Ryan Fernandez, Miguel Ugueto, Ricardo Velez, etc

4) Steady train of QUALITY DSL prospects coming stateside....and we didn't overspend to do it...save Strop, we did pay a pretty penny for him. Hunter, De Los Santos, Padilla and Rodriguez ....The Brewers' recent MLB success and Prospect Rankings are highly attributed to 2-3 DSL players making the Bigs and climbing the Prospect rankings every 2-3 seasons...we're starting to see that with the Cards. Oh....and their DSL pitching is about to get a smidge better.... Branneli Franco's 2nd season was a vast improvement over his first season...he's probably stateside in the FCL next year. Leonel Sequera was a surprising gem with Palm Beach this year....Peoria test coming up, we'll see how the 6'0" does.

5) Lastly...remarkable improvement the last 2 years on the developmental side (only thing I can HONESTLY give credit to Bloom and Bloom alone).... the likes of Church, Mautz, Hansen, Josh Baez, Mathews (gaining 3 MPH on FB, in 2024 vs. College) improving significantly the last 2 years that all helped.

Give credit to Mo for Rule 5 drafting, Bloom for the R&D part, Mo for the Trades from 2023-2025, and someone needs credit for the Sudden influx of quality talent from the DSL since 2024...not sure what happened there....we had a LONG drought from there...all the hitters turned into 600 OPS free swingers, or crashed and burned as pitchers in Peoria.

we still need HUGE help in drafting...the scouting department needs an overhaul...we've had a few gems like Mathews and Ortiz the last two drafts (23,24)....it's not hard to draft JJ and Doyle when you have Top 10 picks...picking for Dummies, anyone can do that. But we've had too many Hjerpe, Davis, Holiday, Honeywell, Campos, etc for me to stomach

Is Josh Baez someone we can place hope in?

Is Guerrero's assessment of Henderson as a #4 or #5 correct?

Is his further assessment of Mautz and Hansen as BP pieces or even pitchers they won't protect from the rule 5 draft this year correct?

Just asking to see if your opinion is different. It seems like these 4 guys could potentially be more near term help than some of the other mid level prospects we have if their ceiling is higher than Guerrero suggested.

1) The fan base is going to place faith in Josh Baez no matter what we say , that's what we/they do...blind faith, it's part of being a fan. You'll know come his 2nd month of AAA if the late 2024 swing change will work in the BIGS. There are hints right now to be excited about...he's FINALLY hitting like he did on all those allstar tours as a High Schooler....he's not selling out with his swings, he's getting more line drives and hard grounders than he's ever gotten in previous years...less flyballs too, if you can believe that, but that's the stats, they don't lie. Still waiting on the AAA offspeeds, which are a ton better than AA offspeeds.

2. Talkin Baseball and I had a convo on Henderson's ceiling/floor 3 months ago? And I put Henderson as 4 or 5...outside chance at a 3, but not likely...not on a good team, maybe on a bad team...I hope we're not a bad team when he gets to the Org. He could have a few output years like a 3, but that's not his makeup

3. Mautz and Hansen are BP pieces...most likely, yes...I stand by my assessment at the beginning of the year on both. Hansen doesn't have the fastball to start...he may amp that up in the BP, though. Mautz is very susceptible to the longball, but made incredible strides to fix that.. He may be the one you choose to protect, though. He opened the cupboard, so to speak, on starting in the majors. I had him as a 2 IP guy, Hansen as Loogy (if those still exist).....Mautz might push the envelop and start. We'll see. I'm highly encouraged by his 2025 season...Texas League is a tough, too. But I want to see him do it against AAA teams with good/great prospects and seasoned veterans like Nashville, Indy, Lehigh, Norfolk, Jacksonville, Toledo (do we play them this year?), and Charlotte.

The good thing...and I've been putting together some data on this....we're more stocked and in a better trade position when it comes to LHP...than we are with Catcher. I wouldn't touch our catchers just yet...we still need to develop pitchers in the minors. We need good catchers to do that....we have a little time there. If you must trade...the trade is between Bernal and Crooks. Bernal's best at LHB, so he probably won't be allowed to hit from the Right. That makes Crooks redundant....or Bernal redundant, whatever your cup of tea. Trade one, don't keep both...if you must "trade" a catcher. Keep Pages....he's RHB. Platoon the two.....or keep Bernal in AAA, he's never been there and the AAA pitchers need a great catcher to work with.

We have Mathews, Doyle, Crossland, Henderson, Mautz, Davis, Findlay, Molina, Hjerpe.......they're not all going to be starting for the Cardinals, nor in the BP. But they could/might for another team. They all have a major league future.

Let's not forget Thompson and Liberatore...and Rom.

I say...trade your best depth...we have the best depth you could possibly want....LHP. SS would be next, RHP would be after that...Catcher is 5th, imo...behind CF. Right now we have LHP and Catcher....1 and 5. Need to work on the RHP and CF. SS is doing better than expected.... Padilla, Baez looking alright so far.

Great summary. Thank you for this.

[rockondlouie]

several things (early apologies for length) :

1) Jimmy Crooks III, Tink Hence and Quinn Mathews in the Top 100...should tell you a lot about it: Fangraphs' lazy/poor ranking system, and/or the quality of prospects in all of the minor leagues (all 30 orgs)...I'll let you choose...but the right answer is : a bit of both...but leaning towards "Crooks, Hence, Mathews"....come on, they shouldn't be in the Top 100...Fangraphs missed big time there...no one else has them ranked Top 100.

2) Trades in the last 3 seasons have been a huge reason for our rise....specifically, and I've been arguing/shouting this for it seems like a decade : Our mid tier or "C" Tier propects (35, 35+, 40, and 40+) prospects have been sorely lacking. Even when we were severely top heavy and ranked a Top 10 farm system in 2021 with Walker, Winn, Donovan, Hence we were starving for mid tier prospects. Crooks, Hjerpe, Bernal helped ...but 2 of those graduated to B tier and B+tier, while the other became "The Elbow". We also had several high prospects flounder or graduate and no one was there to take their place...that happens in every system (most notably the Cubs the last 2 seasons, extremely top heavy and no one to take their Super 7's place in the rankings)

Like I said "Trades"....we picked up Roby, Saggese (graduated), Jesus Baez, Blaze Jordan, Mason Molina, Nate Dohm, Robberse, Rom, Svanson.....that was a large chunk of Mid Tier prospects injected to our system the last 3 seasons.

3) Rule 5 drafting got MUCH better...Ryan Fernandez, Miguel Ugueto, Ricardo Velez, etc

4) Steady train of QUALITY DSL prospects coming stateside....and we didn't overspend to do it...save Strop, we did pay a pretty penny for him. Hunter, De Los Santos, Padilla and Rodriguez ....The Brewers' recent MLB success and Prospect Rankings are highly attributed to 2-3 DSL players making the Bigs and climbing the Prospect rankings every 2-3 seasons...we're starting to see that with the Cards. Oh....and their DSL pitching is about to get a smidge better.... Branneli Franco's 2nd season was a vast improvement over his first season...he's probably stateside in the FCL next year. Leonel Sequera was a surprising gem with Palm Beach this year....Peoria test coming up, we'll see how the 6'0" does.

5) Lastly...remarkable improvement the last 2 years on the developmental side (only thing I can HONESTLY give credit to Bloom and Bloom alone).... the likes of Church, Mautz, Hansen, Josh Baez, Mathews (gaining 3 MPH on FB, in 2024 vs. College) improving significantly the last 2 years that all helped.

Give credit to Mo for Rule 5 drafting, Bloom for the R&D part, Mo for the Trades from 2023-2025, and someone needs credit for the Sudden influx of quality talent from the DSL since 2024...not sure what happened there....we had a LONG drought from there...all the hitters turned into 600 OPS free swingers, or crashed and burned as pitchers in Peoria.

we still need HUGE help in drafting...the scouting department needs an overhaul...we've had a few gems like Mathews and Ortiz the last two drafts (23,24)....it's not hard to draft JJ and Doyle when you have Top 10 picks...picking for Dummies, anyone can do that. But we've had too many Hjerpe, Davis, Holiday, Honeywell, Campos, etc for me to stomach

Is Josh Baez someone we can place hope in?

Is Guerrero's assessment of Henderson as a #4 or #5 correct?

Is his further assessment of Mautz and Hansen as BP pieces or even pitchers they won't protect from the rule 5 draft this year correct?

Just asking to see if your opinion is different. It seems like these 4 guys could potentially be more near term help than some of the other mid level prospects we have if their ceiling is higher than Guerrero suggested.

1) The fan base is going to place faith in Josh Baez no matter what we say , that's what we/they do...blind faith, it's part of being a fan. You'll know come his 2nd month of AAA if the late 2024 swing change will work in the BIGS. There are hints right now to be excited about...he's FINALLY hitting like he did on all those allstar tours as a High Schooler....he's not selling out with his swings, he's getting more line drives and hard grounders than he's ever gotten in previous years...less flyballs too, if you can believe that, but that's the stats, they don't lie. Still waiting on the AAA offspeeds, which are a ton better than AA offspeeds.

2. Talkin Baseball and I had a convo on Henderson's ceiling/floor 3 months ago? And I put Henderson as 4 or 5...outside chance at a 3, but not likely...not on a good team, maybe on a bad team...I hope we're not a bad team when he gets to the Org. He could have a few output years like a 3, but that's not his makeup

3. Mautz and Hansen are BP pieces...most likely, yes...I stand by my assessment at the beginning of the year on both. Hansen doesn't have the fastball to start...he may amp that up in the BP, though. Mautz is very susceptible to the longball, but made incredible strides to fix that.. He may be the one you choose to protect, though. He opened the cupboard, so to speak, on starting in the majors. I had him as a 2 IP guy, Hansen as Loogy (if those still exist).....Mautz might push the envelop and start. We'll see. I'm highly encouraged by his 2025 season...Texas League is a tough, too. But I want to see him do it against AAA teams with good/great prospects and seasoned veterans like Nashville, Indy, Lehigh, Norfolk, Jacksonville, Toledo (do we play them this year?), and Charlotte.

The good thing...and I've been putting together some data on this....we're more stocked and in a better trade position when it comes to LHP...than we are with Catcher. I wouldn't touch our catchers just yet...we still need to develop pitchers in the minors. We need good catchers to do that....we have a little time there. If you must trade...the trade is between Bernal and Crooks. Bernal's best at LHB, so he probably won't be allowed to hit from the Right. That makes Crooks redundant....or Bernal redundant, whatever your cup of tea. Trade one, don't keep both...if you must "trade" a catcher. Keep Pages....he's RHB. Platoon the two.....or keep Bernal in AAA, he's never been there and the AAA pitchers need a great catcher to work with.

We have Mathews, Doyle, Crossland, Henderson, Mautz, Davis, Findlay, Molina, Hjerpe.......they're not all going to be starting for the Cardinals, nor in the BP. But they could/might for another team. They all have a major league future.

Let's not forget Thompson and Liberatore...and Rom.

I say...trade your best depth...we have the best depth you could possibly want....LHP. SS would be next, RHP would be after that...Catcher is 5th, imo...behind CF. Right now we have LHP and Catcher....1 and 5. Need to work on the RHP and CF. SS is doing better than expected.... Padilla, Baez looking alright so far.

BINGO!

I said earlier if nothing else this #1 ranking from fangraphs gives C. Bloom immediate prospect credibility within MLB when he seeks to make trade using some of his prospects.

[cardstatman]

It cost $47M to sign the Cardinals top 49 prospects. This is really only 42 of them; the other 7 have an unknown signing bonus size.