"What does breakout season for Nootbaar look like?"

[rockondlouie]

600 PA's

[bccardsfan]

600 PA's

For some other team that gave us a good return on the trade!

[rockondlouie]

600 PA's

For some other team that gave us a good return on the trade!

I can live w/that

[Melville]

It was my original thread

I was on the fence about Nootbaar. I knew he was a darling of the analytic-leaning crowd because of his OB% and that he could post a high WAR/162 during the time he stayed healthy. Many posters were even calling on Noot to be a breakout player, before the season. They were acting like he was indispensable.

So my goal was to really press these people what they think he could actually do. First, could he even stay healthy. And second, give me some hard numbers of what would have warranted a "breakout season." For me, if he could have hit .250/.350/.460+ with 25 homers, I would have called it a breakout. I'm not saying I expected that. I'm saying that's the baseline he would have to reach for me to recognize a breakout season. Otherwise, he's a 4th OF / platoon piece as he has been all along.

Beyond that, would be the question of if he could even rattle off a string of 5 consistent seasons. I think that always looked very far-fetched, even moreso now.

Thank you for reclaiming that original thread.
A lot of folks were projecting Nootbaar to hit 20 HR.
Others 25.
As I recall, there was also a generally optimistic range concerning runs scored and RBI - 80's & 90's.
I said otherwise.
I said it would be a breakout year if he could score 70 runs, drive in 55, and hit 15 HR.
I pointed out he had never reached any of those numbers.
Said it would be a huge breakout if he did it in 2025.
Everyone without exception said I was wrong, and my numbers were too low.
Looks like they were too high.

But but but those rates stats are ALWAYS exactly extrapolated to 162……book it
Them boys need a chance to play a full season……we Owe them that much…..it’s only fair
Mouth hurts from saying “I told you so” so often

Indeed.
Lars The Human Sushi-baar: not much substance and always leaving folks wanting more.....

[Melville]

Breakout? No
Break Wind???? Yes!
The guy is the epitome of a choker and total nitwit.

Please please please unload this bum!

As I was first to understand and advise 4 years ago.....

[Melville]

I remember when the Cardinals organization and the fans were high on Nootbar. I remember reading or hearing of his reputation of being good fastball hitter, and being selective with a good batting eye.

While I was reading this thread, I got curious, and just looked up his minor league numbers on baseball reference. I was surprised over how unimpressive they were. Look at these career numbers: 7 minor league seasons, 230 games, 912 AB's, only 23 HR's, .728 OPS.

So why was Nootbar ever promoted to the majors after those mediocre numbers? Heck, Gorman and Walker were much better than that. Why were there any expectations for him to begin with?

1) Those are the same skills Carpenter had in the minors.
2) He had a .900 OPS in his first taste of AAA in 2021
3) He had a 1.000+ OPS in the Arizona Fall League that winter
4) He rose from low-A to AA in 2019 and his OBP got better along the way.
5) He missed a year of development in 2020 but by all accounts had made the most of it by training on his own, which was proven the following year in AAA.

It was not a reach at all to think he would be able to turn into a solid starting OF based on those accomplishments.

It was always a reach.
But when Mo falls in love, he falls hard.
Easy.
Obvious.
Correct.

[Melville]

Remember that thread from the beginning of the season?
Can't locate it now.

Somebody in that thread said something like:
140 games
20+ HR (Lol)
75-80 RBI (Lol)
.400 OBP (Lol)
.780-.800 OPS

I hope everybody now realizes just how average Nootbaar is.

Except for base running - in that category Noot is a moron.

Several said that.
Not me.
I said he was, at best, a 4th outfield/platoon player - and had no business being viewed as a "core player" as Mo idiotically claimed.
Mootbaar will end this season exactly as I predicted 6 months ago.

[riff raff]

Remember that thread from the beginning of the season?
Can't locate it now.

Somebody in that thread said something like:
140 games
20+ HR (Lol)
75-80 RBI (Lol)
.400 OBP (Lol)
.780-.800 OPS

I hope everybody now realizes just how average Nootbaar is.

Except for base running - in that category Noot is a moron.

Several said that.
Not me.
I said he was, at best, a 4th outfield/platoon player - and had no business being viewed as a "core player" as Mo idiotically claimed.
Mootbaar will end this season exactly as I predicted 6 months ago.

Could you supply that Mo quote? I don't recall it.

[imadangman]

It was my original thread

I was on the fence about Nootbaar. I knew he was a darling of the analytic-leaning crowd because of his OB% and that he could post a high WAR/162 during the time he stayed healthy. Many posters were even calling on Noot to be a breakout player, before the season. They were acting like he was indispensable.

So my goal was to really press these people what they think he could actually do. First, could he even stay healthy. And second, give me some hard numbers of what would have warranted a "breakout season." For me, if he could have hit .250/.350/.460+ with 25 homers, I would have called it a breakout. I'm not saying I expected that. I'm saying that's the baseline he would have to reach for me to recognize a breakout season. Otherwise, he's a 4th OF / platoon piece as he has been all along.

Beyond that, would be the question of if he could even rattle off a string of 5 consistent seasons. I think that always looked very far-fetched, even moreso now.

Thank you for reclaiming that original thread.
A lot of folks were projecting Nootbaar to hit 20 HR.
Others 25.
As I recall, there was also a generally optimistic range concerning runs scored and RBI - 80's & 90's.
I said otherwise.
I said it would be a breakout year if he could score 70 runs, drive in 55, and hit 15 HR.
I pointed out he had never reached any of those numbers.
Said it would be a huge breakout if he did it in 2025.
Everyone without exception said I was wrong, and my numbers were too low.
Looks like they were too high.

But but but those rates stats are ALWAYS exactly extrapolated to 162……book it
Them boys need a chance to play a full season……we Owe them that much…..it’s only fair
Mouth hurts from saying “I told you so” so often

Indeed.
Lars The Human Sushi-baar: not much substance and always leaving folks wanting more.....

A few weeks ago I took home a grocery store sushi meal and ate it in the shower. It was among the best shower meals I've had in recent memory.

[Cusecards]

Breakout? No
Break Wind???? Yes!
The guy is the epitome of a choker and total nitwit.

Please please please unload this bum!

As I was first to understand and advise 4 years ago.....

“As I
I
I
I
I
Was first”
Never about YOU though right Sideshow???
You’re my Idol....wait...that’s Idle!
Easy
Obvious
Correct

[riff raff]

It was my original thread

I was on the fence about Nootbaar. I knew he was a darling of the analytic-leaning crowd because of his OB% and that he could post a high WAR/162 during the time he stayed healthy. Many posters were even calling on Noot to be a breakout player, before the season. They were acting like he was indispensable.

So my goal was to really press these people what they think he could actually do. First, could he even stay healthy. And second, give me some hard numbers of what would have warranted a "breakout season." For me, if he could have hit .250/.350/.460+ with 25 homers, I would have called it a breakout. I'm not saying I expected that. I'm saying that's the baseline he would have to reach for me to recognize a breakout season. Otherwise, he's a 4th OF / platoon piece as he has been all along.

Beyond that, would be the question of if he could even rattle off a string of 5 consistent seasons. I think that always looked very far-fetched, even moreso now.

Thank you for reclaiming that original thread.
A lot of folks were projecting Nootbaar to hit 20 HR.
Others 25.
As I recall, there was also a generally optimistic range concerning runs scored and RBI - 80's & 90's.
I said otherwise.
I said it would be a breakout year if he could score 70 runs, drive in 55, and hit 15 HR.
I pointed out he had never reached any of those numbers.
Said it would be a huge breakout if he did it in 2025.
Everyone without exception said I was wrong, and my numbers were too low.
Looks like they were too high.

But but but those rates stats are ALWAYS exactly extrapolated to 162……book it
Them boys need a chance to play a full season……we Owe them that much…..it’s only fair
Mouth hurts from saying “I told you so” so often

Indeed.
Lars The Human Sushi-baar: not much substance and always leaving folks wanting more.....

A few weeks ago I took home a grocery store sushi meal and ate it in the shower. It was among the best shower meals I've had in recent memory.

[Hoosier59]

I think we have seen his break out year already.

[imadangman]

It was my original thread

I was on the fence about Nootbaar. I knew he was a darling of the analytic-leaning crowd because of his OB% and that he could post a high WAR/162 during the time he stayed healthy. Many posters were even calling on Noot to be a breakout player, before the season. They were acting like he was indispensable.

So my goal was to really press these people what they think he could actually do. First, could he even stay healthy. And second, give me some hard numbers of what would have warranted a "breakout season." For me, if he could have hit .250/.350/.460+ with 25 homers, I would have called it a breakout. I'm not saying I expected that. I'm saying that's the baseline he would have to reach for me to recognize a breakout season. Otherwise, he's a 4th OF / platoon piece as he has been all along.

Beyond that, would be the question of if he could even rattle off a string of 5 consistent seasons. I think that always looked very far-fetched, even moreso now.

Thank you for reclaiming that original thread.
A lot of folks were projecting Nootbaar to hit 20 HR.
Others 25.
As I recall, there was also a generally optimistic range concerning runs scored and RBI - 80's & 90's.
I said otherwise.
I said it would be a breakout year if he could score 70 runs, drive in 55, and hit 15 HR.
I pointed out he had never reached any of those numbers.
Said it would be a huge breakout if he did it in 2025.
Everyone without exception said I was wrong, and my numbers were too low.
Looks like they were too high.

But but but those rates stats are ALWAYS exactly extrapolated to 162……book it
Them boys need a chance to play a full season……we Owe them that much…..it’s only fair
Mouth hurts from saying “I told you so” so often

Indeed.
Lars The Human Sushi-baar: not much substance and always leaving folks wanting more.....

A few weeks ago I took home a grocery store sushi meal and ate it in the shower. It was among the best shower meals I've had in recent memory.

Melville is right. It wasn't as much substance as the night I consumed a 6 piece popeyes chicken in the shower, doused in louisiana hot sauce (me and the chicken both).

[riff raff]

It was my original thread

I was on the fence about Nootbaar. I knew he was a darling of the analytic-leaning crowd because of his OB% and that he could post a high WAR/162 during the time he stayed healthy. Many posters were even calling on Noot to be a breakout player, before the season. They were acting like he was indispensable.

So my goal was to really press these people what they think he could actually do. First, could he even stay healthy. And second, give me some hard numbers of what would have warranted a "breakout season." For me, if he could have hit .250/.350/.460+ with 25 homers, I would have called it a breakout. I'm not saying I expected that. I'm saying that's the baseline he would have to reach for me to recognize a breakout season. Otherwise, he's a 4th OF / platoon piece as he has been all along.

Beyond that, would be the question of if he could even rattle off a string of 5 consistent seasons. I think that always looked very far-fetched, even moreso now.

Thank you for reclaiming that original thread.
A lot of folks were projecting Nootbaar to hit 20 HR.
Others 25.
As I recall, there was also a generally optimistic range concerning runs scored and RBI - 80's & 90's.
I said otherwise.
I said it would be a breakout year if he could score 70 runs, drive in 55, and hit 15 HR.
I pointed out he had never reached any of those numbers.
Said it would be a huge breakout if he did it in 2025.
Everyone without exception said I was wrong, and my numbers were too low.
Looks like they were too high.

But but but those rates stats are ALWAYS exactly extrapolated to 162……book it
Them boys need a chance to play a full season……we Owe them that much…..it’s only fair
Mouth hurts from saying “I told you so” so often

Indeed.
Lars The Human Sushi-baar: not much substance and always leaving folks wanting more.....

A few weeks ago I took home a grocery store sushi meal and ate it in the shower. It was among the best shower meals I've had in recent memory.

Melville is right. It wasn't as much substance as the night I consumed a 6 piece popeyes chicken in the shower, doused in louisiana hot sauce (me and the chicken both).

Not impressed