Will They Eat Payroll?

[Talkin' Baseball]

We are about to see how a new front office will do some things differently. I’m curious to see if the ownership will now also be willing to do some things differently- specifically eat some money. Will this ownership bite the bullet on any of the three large contracts on the books to lower payroll, create opportunity, and perhaps even get some young players in return?

Nolan Arenado

Nolan has a salary of 27M for 2026 and 15M for 2027. Of his 2026 salary, Colorado is paying 5M and the Cardinals will owe 6M in deferred money, making the outlay for 2026 16M. In 2027 there are no deferments, and the Rockies pay no money. In addition to this, there is 6M in deferred money from his 2025 contract that the Cardinals owe. All told the Cardinals owe Arenado 43M after this season. Would another team take on Arenado if the Cardinals agreed to pay the 12M in deferred money, 6M in 2026, and 5M in 2027? The receiving team would get him for 10M per season, the Cardinals would eat 23M and save 10 each in 2026 and 2027. If he won’t expand his list of trade destinations, or the Cardinals can’t find a partner, they may end up eating the whole contract.

Sonny Gray

The Cardinals owe Sonny Gray 35M in 2026 and there is an option for 30M in 2027, or a buyout the team can exercise of 5M if they choose. There are a limited number of teams Sonny might agree to go to (maybe just Atlanta). Is Sonny worth 20M to them for one season? They also lose Chris Sale after next year- maybe they would like the idea of having the option to keep Sonny. If this could be done, the Cardinals would eat 15M in 2026 and would save 20M from payroll and the 5M option after the season.

Willson Contreras

Willson is owed 18M in 2026, 18.5M in 2027, and the team has an option to keep him for 17.5M in 2028 or pay a 5M buyout if they don’t want to keep him. If he would agree to be traded, he would be the easiest of the three to move. If the Cardinals would agree to pay 5M in 2026 and 5M in 2027, Willson would be a bargain to a receiving team at 13M and 13.5M. The Cardinals would be within reason to expect a decent prospect in return. The Cardinals would eat 5M in 2026 and 5M in 2027. They would save from payroll 13M in 2026, 13.5M in 2027, and the 5M option after the ’27 season.

If the Cardinals did these things, they would save 38M from payroll in ’26 along with the 5M for Gray’s option after the season. They would save 23.5M along with the 5M for the Contreras option after the ’27 season. To do it they would have to eat 48M. Would they? Do they have the stomach for that?

[Carp4Cy]

No Trade Clauses.

Mo wasted multiple offseasons on this mission. And even if successful it doesn't move us ahead as expected. Bloom needs to find other ways to improve the team and strategically deploy the vets in the best possible situations.

[ramfandan]

Bloom has been around the block . He was with low payroll team in Tampa and higher payroll team in Boston.
Remember when Boston ownership had him move Mookie Betts.
Sure Bloom will not be hesitant in making moves.

He isn't going to continue what Mo was doing . Yes, they will eat payroll . Out with the old and IN with the younger cheaper guys.

[Dicktar2023]

I have no guess on the long-term future of Contreras or Gray. A lot will depend on what happens next year and whether they want to waive their NTCs.

But I would bet Arenado will be at 3B next year. No one wants him and BDW doesn't want to pay him to play for another team. The club is clearly in no hurry to bring Wetherholt up and not intending to compete any time soon. Gorman has not exactly achieved liftoff with his "runway" year(s) so trade him and your infield logjam is solved.

[Clubmaker2]

jj will be the starting 2b most likely. they did not call him up so that someone else could ride the 40 man roster spot over the winter since he is not rule 5 draft eligible as others. JJ and Winn strong up the middle for years to come.

Cards get at least 200 mil each year from MLB distributions, then have what, 48 percent of their own revenue left to add to that 200. Then Bill has his ballpark village and real estate money he profits off of around the ballpark...and what about the warehouses of dry powder.... They can eat almost anything,

[Talkin' Baseball]

jj will be the starting 2b most likely. they did not call him up so that someone else could ride the 40 man roster spot over the winter since he is not rule 5 draft eligible as others. JJ and Winn strong up the middle for years to come.

Cards get at least 200 mil each year from MLB distributions, then have what, 48 percent of their own revenue left to add to that 200. Then Bill has his ballpark village and real estate money he profits off of around the ballpark...and what about the warehouses of dry powder.... They can eat almost anything,

But will they?

[rockondlouie]

-NADO

Yes, perhaps as much as 50%. Salary relief, little more than a lotto prospect.

-Gray

No, he's still a very valuable starter (the Cardinals were 15 - 5 in his home starts) and $35M for one year won't break a contender's bank if they think Gray puts them over the top. The return though would be a mid level prospect at best.

-WillyC

No, he's still a solid offensive player and an above average defensive 1st baseman. Should bring back a solid prospect.


That said, I don't expect WillyC to be traded or for him to waive the NTC.

Gray, won't waive unless it's to a team close to home.

NADO will waive and likely will be traded.

JMO

[Imperial Capitalist]

It would seem per the comments he made in the post-game yesterday that Nolan looks more favorably upon the idea of moving elsewhere for 26. However, that newfound attitude may be a year too late in developing, given his lack of production this year and the (lack of?) health in his shoulder looming over any potential trade.

The Braves will probably give it another go with their existing foundation and try to win, and they are still short the wins & innings that Max Fried took with him to the NYY and what Charlie Morton gave them in 2024. Sonny Gray is no Max Fried, but going after him might be a lower-cost option than anything they'd find on the FA market. How he would survive "Hot-lanta" come July and August is another question.

Contreras --- He isn't going anywhere.

Still, to ask the Dewitts to digest ~ ?$25 to $30MM? in salaries in one off-season --- and see them actually do it --- would be nothing short of amazing given their fiscal tightness and "the contract plays" attitude of recent times.

[Goldfan]

More importantly…..will they bring back Miles??

[Dicktar2023]

More importantly…..will they bring back Miles??

If Marmol is coming back, why not MM? Seriously.

[Talkin' Baseball]

They could create playing time, re-invest in a couple players to fill out the roster, and still cut the payroll. By re-investing, I'm talking about 5M for a Jose Quintana/Tyler Mahle type pitcher(s) and possibly an Austin Hayes type RH OF.

[swatski]

The answer is they are very unlikely to eat payroll.

[Cardinals4Life]

We are about to see how a new front office will do some things differently. I’m curious to see if the ownership will now also be willing to do some things differently- specifically eat some money. Will this ownership bite the bullet on any of the three large contracts on the books to lower payroll, create opportunity, and perhaps even get some young players in return?

Nolan Arenado

Nolan has a salary of 27M for 2026 and 15M for 2027. Of his 2026 salary, Colorado is paying 5M and the Cardinals will owe 6M in deferred money, making the outlay for 2026 16M. In 2027 there are no deferments, and the Rockies pay no money. In addition to this, there is 6M in deferred money from his 2025 contract that the Cardinals owe. All told the Cardinals owe Arenado 43M after this season. Would another team take on Arenado if the Cardinals agreed to pay the 12M in deferred money, 6M in 2026, and 5M in 2027? The receiving team would get him for 10M per season, the Cardinals would eat 23M and save 10 each in 2026 and 2027. If he won’t expand his list of trade destinations, or the Cardinals can’t find a partner, they may end up eating the whole contract.

Sonny Gray

The Cardinals owe Sonny Gray 35M in 2026 and there is an option for 30M in 2027, or a buyout the team can exercise of 5M if they choose. There are a limited number of teams Sonny might agree to go to (maybe just Atlanta). Is Sonny worth 20M to them for one season? They also lose Chris Sale after next year- maybe they would like the idea of having the option to keep Sonny. If this could be done, the Cardinals would eat 15M in 2026 and would save 20M from payroll and the 5M option after the season.

Willson Contreras

Willson is owed 18M in 2026, 18.5M in 2027, and the team has an option to keep him for 17.5M in 2028 or pay a 5M buyout if they don’t want to keep him. If he would agree to be traded, he would be the easiest of the three to move. If the Cardinals would agree to pay 5M in 2026 and 5M in 2027, Willson would be a bargain to a receiving team at 13M and 13.5M. The Cardinals would be within reason to expect a decent prospect in return. The Cardinals would eat 5M in 2026 and 5M in 2027. They would save from payroll 13M in 2026, 13.5M in 2027, and the 5M option after the ’27 season.

If the Cardinals did these things, they would save 38M from payroll in ’26 along with the 5M for Gray’s option after the season. They would save 23.5M along with the 5M for the Contreras option after the ’27 season. To do it they would have to eat 48M. Would they? Do they have the stomach for that?

TB,

Good post! Appreciate the thoughtfulness of the questions.

I think Nado is now willing to go. Probably to more teams than last year.

Not sure about Gray. We probably still need him in the rotation, honestly.

Contreras is still useful here. Not sure the need to trade him.

My BIG question, though, is WHY do the Cardinals need to shed payroll anymore? These 3 contracts aren't breaking the bank and aren't preventing us from doing anything or handcuffing us. Our payroll is already the lowest it has been in a long time. I think they will look to move some of them, but other than clearing the slate more, not sure what it accomplishes???

[Talkin' Baseball]

We are about to see how a new front office will do some things differently. I’m curious to see if the ownership will now also be willing to do some things differently- specifically eat some money. Will this ownership bite the bullet on any of the three large contracts on the books to lower payroll, create opportunity, and perhaps even get some young players in return?

Nolan Arenado

Nolan has a salary of 27M for 2026 and 15M for 2027. Of his 2026 salary, Colorado is paying 5M and the Cardinals will owe 6M in deferred money, making the outlay for 2026 16M. In 2027 there are no deferments, and the Rockies pay no money. In addition to this, there is 6M in deferred money from his 2025 contract that the Cardinals owe. All told the Cardinals owe Arenado 43M after this season. Would another team take on Arenado if the Cardinals agreed to pay the 12M in deferred money, 6M in 2026, and 5M in 2027? The receiving team would get him for 10M per season, the Cardinals would eat 23M and save 10 each in 2026 and 2027. If he won’t expand his list of trade destinations, or the Cardinals can’t find a partner, they may end up eating the whole contract.

Sonny Gray

The Cardinals owe Sonny Gray 35M in 2026 and there is an option for 30M in 2027, or a buyout the team can exercise of 5M if they choose. There are a limited number of teams Sonny might agree to go to (maybe just Atlanta). Is Sonny worth 20M to them for one season? They also lose Chris Sale after next year- maybe they would like the idea of having the option to keep Sonny. If this could be done, the Cardinals would eat 15M in 2026 and would save 20M from payroll and the 5M option after the season.

Willson Contreras

Willson is owed 18M in 2026, 18.5M in 2027, and the team has an option to keep him for 17.5M in 2028 or pay a 5M buyout if they don’t want to keep him. If he would agree to be traded, he would be the easiest of the three to move. If the Cardinals would agree to pay 5M in 2026 and 5M in 2027, Willson would be a bargain to a receiving team at 13M and 13.5M. The Cardinals would be within reason to expect a decent prospect in return. The Cardinals would eat 5M in 2026 and 5M in 2027. They would save from payroll 13M in 2026, 13.5M in 2027, and the 5M option after the ’27 season.

If the Cardinals did these things, they would save 38M from payroll in ’26 along with the 5M for Gray’s option after the season. They would save 23.5M along with the 5M for the Contreras option after the ’27 season. To do it they would have to eat 48M. Would they? Do they have the stomach for that?

TB,

Good post! Appreciate the thoughtfulness of the questions.

I think Nado is now willing to go. Probably to more teams than last year.

Not sure about Gray. We probably still need him in the rotation, honestly.

Contreras is still useful here. Not sure the need to trade him.

My BIG question, though, is WHY do the Cardinals need to shed payroll anymore? These 3 contracts aren't breaking the bank and aren't preventing us from doing anything or handcuffing us. Our payroll is already the lowest it has been in a long time. I think they will look to move some of them, but other than clearing the slate more, not sure what it accomplishes???

Fear (of a lockout)? Greed? Preparing to sell? A game of chicken with the fans (I think I can still hear BDW III chuckling)? Re-invest in the product? Dry powder (now an offensive term)?

[JuanAgosto]

They will eat some of Arenado's salary.

Gray will be kept until the trade deadline (if he is dealt at all).

Contreras is here for the duration of his NTC unless he has a radical change of heart.

[Bob Kunush]

The answer is they are very unlikely to eat payroll.

I actually think they will be very willing to take on money to move some of these contracts. No matter what they pay of Arenado or Gray deals they still arent paying all of it. They have eaten payroll before. They paid a fortune to get rid of a starting pitcher they signed a few years ago. There are orher examples.