2027

[Jatalk]

I have read several comments about 2027 work stoppage. It seems like the possibility of that happening is 100%. The primary issue being a salary cap. I support the cap as long as there is also a reasonable salary minimum.

So my primary question is why would any team sign expensive free agents for 2026? It does not seem logical to lock in expensive players not knowing how the cap issue is resolved. If so it seems like the overall market price for 2026 free agents will go down. Signings are going to be cheaper and for shorter terms.

From the Cardinal standpoint, it seems to reinforce the emphasis on internal development without signing free agents. That aligns with what we are reading form various sources.

On the other hand if I am right and the market goes down it might provide an opportunity or two to sign some good players at lower than expected dollars and for shorter terms.

What am I missing? I’m sure I haven’t considered all the angles.

[mattmitchl44]

Yes, baseball likely needs a salary cap/salary floor system. I did the math one time and I think if you set the cap at ~$250-$275 million and the floor at ~$125-$137.5 million (50% of the cap) you could expect the same amount of money, or more, to go to the players across all of MLB. Supporting that would require more revenue sharing among the MLB teams. Per Cot's there are five teams (LAD, NYM, NYY, PHI, and TOR) expected to be over $250 million this year while there are 10 below $125 million (MIA, TB, CHW, the As, PIT, CLE, WASH, MIL, CIN, COL). There are four projected above $275 million and 12 below $137.5 million.

With the cap on the upper end, I think you would end up with the middle market teams (like the Cardinals) ultimately being encouraged to spend a bit more over the long run because spending $200 million vs. $150 million should make you a lot more competitive against big market teams capped at $250-$275 million than against big market teams that can spend $300-$350 million like they do now.

[stormtime]

I have read several comments about 2027 work stoppage. It seems like the possibility of that happening is 100%. The primary issue being a salary cap. I support the cap as long as there is also a reasonable salary minimum.

So my primary question is why would any team sign expensive free agents for 2026? It does not seem logical to lock in expensive players not knowing how the cap issue is resolved. If so it seems like the overall market price for 2026 free agents will go down. Signings are going to be cheaper and for shorter terms.

From the Cardinal standpoint, it seems to reinforce the emphasis on internal development without signing free agents. That aligns with what we are reading form various sources.

On the other hand if I am right and the market goes down it might provide an opportunity or two to sign some good players at lower than expected dollars and for shorter terms.

What am I missing? I’m sure I haven’t considered all the angles.

I do believe (finally) a meaningful cap and floor are coming. All they need are 7-8 owners to stick together, and after the fiasco pulled off by the Dodgers (deferred over $1B into the 2040's) as well as the other massive payroll advantages, I think the owners are ready for a fight.

Having said that, your question on signing huge FA contracts is probably not an issue this offseason, much like the Dodgers deferrals. All of this will happen under the current CBA and therefore (I fear) will be more or less grandfathered in. I would be shocked if the owners will be able to get a cap/floor that forces large market teams to immediately get under a certain number. Only time will tell.