McGreevy's spot amongst starters -- surprising stats

[12xu]

Lefty starter parade is coming

Liberatore
Mathews
Doyle
Henderson
Mautz?
Hanson?
Hjerpe?

On the righty side it is

McGreevy
Pallante
Roby
Lin
Hence
Rincon
Winquest

They dont' seem to take Curtis Taylor seriously even though he did nothing but win in Memphis.

Taylor is 30 years old in AAA. There’s nothing about him that should induce optimism for major league performance.

This team is not acquiring any contracts this off season of length or high cost. You can bet on it. They are ready to see mediocre fan turn out for 2026 knowing that the 2027 lockout is going to turn off fans anyway. It is a lose-lose and they know this. 2026 will be the loss of some familiar faces to then acquire guys of like talent and disappointment but with potential to be something. They will pluck from the minors also guys like Taylor to put up or hit the road. People need to understand that the lockout will not just hurt owner incomes. Players lose a year of development and production. For guys of age and needing to show their worth this can be hugely detrimental. It all depends on if the owners are ready to fight for a salary cap of some kind and not tax penalties. If they truly fight for a limited annual earnings figure, the lockout could last the whole season. There is no advantage to acquire contracts on a team going into a rebuild and a lockout season. People on this forum need to see the light and stop convincing themselves they will acquire some contracts to try to win. You could see some guys pushed along that maybe are not quite there stamina wise if nothing else to push them to do better. In a throw away season getting potential starters 120+ innings in MLB could be a good thing. They are up for half the season and then next guy up.

Seems possible to me that the team, knowing that the 2027 lockout is imminent, would attempt to put a better product on the field in '26, to increase attendance and make some more money while they can.

[Strummer Jones]

I've got nothing against McGreevy, he's fine as he is, but anybody expecting him to be anything more than a #4 or #5 is kidding themselves. He's got good pitches, but none of them are GREAT.

[redbirdfan51]

Chen-Wei Lin

and please no, to Leahy

Marmol did mention yesterday to Ackerman and Bernie the probability of Leahy as a starter next season.

[Basil Shabazz]

Great post. I hope McGreevy is the ace of next years staff. We need to keep Sonny and sign a high profile FA pitcher, and acquire+ an innings eater. Hopefully Matthews is ready to join the staff next year. It would be great if Wei-Lin Chen and Liam Doyle have a monster spring training and make the big club.

I love your excitement about McGreevy, and I am excited about him being a solid member of the starting staff for the next five years or more. However, if we settle for him being a staff ACE, then we are accepting more mediocrity. McGreevy is a competent piece of a good starting staff as a 3rd starter. Maybe he further develops into a number 2, but I do not see the ACE of a 90+ winning team when I see him.

We as fans should set our expectations of our franchise higher.

[3dender]

I think Mathews could make an impact next year right from the start of the season.

Yes, he's struggling with control at Memphis but he was fine at AA and below.

It seems reasonable and likely that he could get it back very quickly since it hasn't been a lifelong problem.

Regaining control of the walks is his last obstacle. He's got an offseason to figure it out.

Otoh, sudden loss of control is a pretty infamous harbinger of a shredded elbow ligament.

[rockondlouie]

I've got nothing against McGreevy, he's fine as he is, but anybody expecting him to be anything more than a #4 or #5 is kidding themselves. He's got good pitches, but none of them are GREAT.

I agree SJ

His upside is #3 (under 4.00 ERA) but once the league gets a good book on him and w/o the ability to strikeout hitters he could slip to being that dependable #4 w/a low 4.00 ERA.

[VegasVinny]

Lefty starter parade is coming

Liberatore
Mathews
Doyle
Henderson
Mautz?
Hanson?
Hjerpe?

On the righty side it is

McGreevy
Pallante
Roby
Lin
Hence
Rincon
Winquest

They dont' seem to take Curtis Taylor seriously even though he did nothing but win in Memphis.

Taylor is 30 years old in AAA. There’s nothing about him that should induce optimism for major league performance.

This team is not acquiring any contracts this off season of length or high cost. You can bet on it. They are ready to see mediocre fan turn out for 2026 knowing that the 2027 lockout is going to turn off fans anyway. It is a lose-lose and they know this. 2026 will be the loss of some familiar faces to then acquire guys of like talent and disappointment but with potential to be something. They will pluck from the minors also guys like Taylor to put up or hit the road. People need to understand that the lockout will not just hurt owner incomes. Players lose a year of development and production. For guys of age and needing to show their worth this can be hugely detrimental. It all depends on if the owners are ready to fight for a salary cap of some kind and not tax penalties. If they truly fight for a limited annual earnings figure, the lockout could last the whole season. There is no advantage to acquire contracts on a team going into a rebuild and a lockout season. People on this forum need to see the light and stop convincing themselves they will acquire some contracts to try to win. You could see some guys pushed along that maybe are not quite there stamina wise if nothing else to push them to do better. In a throw away season getting potential starters 120+ innings in MLB could be a good thing. They are up for half the season and then next guy up.

This.

If - and I mean this is a big if - the team is even in remote contention for a wild card berth on September 1st, 2026, it is because a) the expanded wild card reinforces mediocrity and b) the baseball players either currently on the 40-man roster or the returns of a trade from said players have made significant development strides (Walker, Gorman, Mathews, Doyle) coupled with miraculous recoveries from injury (Roby, Hjerpe).

[StlMike1969]

Lefty starter parade is coming

Liberatore
Mathews
Doyle
Henderson
Mautz?
Hanson?
Hjerpe?

On the righty side it is

McGreevy
Pallante
Roby
Lin
Hence
Rincon
Winquest

They dont' seem to take Curtis Taylor seriously even though he did nothing but win in Memphis.

Taylor is 30 years old in AAA. There’s nothing about him that should induce optimism for major league performance.

This team is not acquiring any contracts this off season of length or high cost. You can bet on it. They are ready to see mediocre fan turn out for 2026 knowing that the 2027 lockout is going to turn off fans anyway. It is a lose-lose and they know this. 2026 will be the loss of some familiar faces to then acquire guys of like talent and disappointment but with potential to be something. They will pluck from the minors also guys like Taylor to put up or hit the road. People need to understand that the lockout will not just hurt owner incomes. Players lose a year of development and production. For guys of age and needing to show their worth this can be hugely detrimental. It all depends on if the owners are ready to fight for a salary cap of some kind and not tax penalties. If they truly fight for a limited annual earnings figure, the lockout could last the whole season. There is no advantage to acquire contracts on a team going into a rebuild and a lockout season. People on this forum need to see the light and stop convincing themselves they will acquire some contracts to try to win. You could see some guys pushed along that maybe are not quite there stamina wise if nothing else to push them to do better. In a throw away season getting potential starters 120+ innings in MLB could be a good thing. They are up for half the season and then next guy up.

Seems possible to me that the team, knowing that the 2027 lockout is imminent, would attempt to put a better product on the field in '26, to increase attendance and make some more money while they can.

I have a hard time envisioning that personally. I do not believe fan attendance is just about the team I think other factors like down town crime, costs to go also play a factor in why the team is in decline on attendance. The only way the team could increase enthusiasm in any meaningful way for 2026 would be to sign or trade for 3 to 4 well known stars that will be making big bucks also. That cost would negate any return on fan attendance. Most teams in any major sport are not making real money unless they make the playoffs. People tend to overlook this. The teams, like most businesses make budgets based on expected revenue. They plan based on 162 games. This is their incentive to spend 20 mill more to make the playoffs as they can then make tens of millions more from an extended playoff run. The team has indicated they are in rebuild mode and been very clear their minors system of development has to get better before they commit to long term $$$ on MLB players. They got burned too many times from Mozeliak deals ala, Arenado that are going to cost them. To trade Arenado they are going to have to eat most likely 60% of the current deal to get any kind of a decent return. That is tens of millions of dollars in the hole right off. They are not going to make a 2026 push no matter how any one wishes it or spins it into reality. it is what it is.

[CorneliusWolfe]

Lefty starter parade is coming

Liberatore
Mathews
Doyle
Henderson
Mautz?
Hanson?
Hjerpe?

On the righty side it is

McGreevy
Pallante
Roby
Lin
Hence
Rincon
Winquest

They dont' seem to take Curtis Taylor seriously even though he did nothing but win in Memphis.

Curtis Taylor career MiLB ERA 3.50. McGreevy 4.08.

McGreevy becoming a staff ace will require him to be much better in MLB than he was in MiLB.

Taylor is 30 w/8! MiLB seasons. Age obviously working against him but he would be under team control for 6 years on the cheap.

Not gonna be a red jacket but seems like a great candidate to hold down a spot instead of a retread stop-gap veteran. He certainly has experience on his side.

[Ronnie Dobbs]

Look, I like McGreevy, but he's got half the starts of those guys. And Liberatore, unlike those others, has a lot less innings as a result of being jerked around between the rotation and bullpen the past few years, so of course he was due to wear down. Anyway, who knows what McGreevy's stats look like over a full season. He's a good #4 or #5 starter. With luck, maybe he'll peak as a #3 type.

But he's going to have really good games like this where people will talk about how good he looks, then he'll throw a stinker where people talk about how bad he is. A classic back of the rotation starter.

And that's nothing to be ashamed about. He's young and cost controlled. Every team needs guys like that. You just don't want an entire rotation full of them.

[Strummer Jones]

Look, I like McGreevy, but he's got half the starts of those guys. And Liberatore, unlike those others, has a lot less innings as a result of being jerked around between the rotation and bullpen the past few years, so of course he was due to wear down. Anyway, who knows what McGreevy's stats look like over a full season. He's a good #4 or #5 starter. With luck, maybe he'll peak as a #3 type.

But he's going to have really good games like this where people will talk about how good he looks, then he'll throw a stinker where people talk about how bad he is. A classic back of the rotation starter.

And that's nothing to be ashamed about. He's young and cost controlled. Every team needs guys like that. You just don't want an entire rotation full of them.

That's an important factor. It's a lot easier to swallow McGreevy's mediocrity when you're paying him league minimum than paying someone else 18 million to be less than mediocre.

And again, that's not a knock on Greevy. Not everyone can be Paul Skenes. Very few teams have very good #4 or #5's. But so long as we don't need to rely on McGreevy, I think he's perfect filler for back of the rotation.