Cardinals hitting IQ

[Hoosier59]

Some of our hitters just appear to be clueless as to how opposing pitchers are trying to work to them.
Example #1. Wrong way,
1st inning, Donovan gets a get me over fastball down the middle to lead off and rips a double, nice right? Well, guess what, he’s not seen another one, but keeps swinging at them as if he is.
Sample #2. Right way,
Saggese works an at bat to 9 pitches and hits an outside pitch to right center for a hit. Very good at bat.
His next at bat Abbott tries to come inside after Saggese works another long count and Saggese hits a HR. Another good at bat.
He got an inside pitch to hit because he proved he would not pull off the outside pitch and hit it the other way.
Example #3 Wrong way,
Nootbaar is getting nothing but down and away pitches and he’s pulling off of everyone of them. Why would he get anything else!

The thing is that the Cardinals do not have any Pujols or McGwires, who hit a bunch of HR’s, but almost all the current players keep trying to hit like them with nearly every at bat.
Saggese showed them how to be able to hit more HR’s by waiting for the right pitch.
Herrera is another player who knows when to go for it and when not to.
Obviously Walker, Scott, and Gorman are players who don’t seem to have a clue.

[JuanAgosto]

......is low.

[BrockFloodMaris]

Some of our hitters just appear to be clueless as to how opposing pitchers are trying to work to them.
Example #1. Wrong way,
1st inning, Donovan gets a get me over fastball down the middle to lead off and rips a double, nice right? Well, guess what, he’s not seen another one, but keeps swinging at them as if he is.
Sample #2. Right way,
Saggese works an at bat to 9 pitches and hits an outside pitch to right center for a hit. Very good at bat.
His next at bat Abbott tries to come inside after Saggese works another long count and Saggese hits a HR. Another good at bat.
He got an inside pitch to hit because he proved he would not pull off the outside pitch and hit it the other way.
Example #3 Wrong way,
Nootbaar is getting nothing but down and away pitches and he’s pulling off of everyone of them. Why would he get anything else!

The thing is that the Cardinals do not have any Pujols or McGwires, who hit a bunch of HR’s, but almost all the current players keep trying to hit like them with nearly every at bat.
Saggese showed them how to be able to hit more HR’s by waiting for the right pitch.
Herrera is another player who knows when to go for it and when not to.
Obviously Walker, Scott, and Gorman are players who don’t seem to have a clue.

Great post ‘59! Keen observations. Astute conclusion. It seems like a lot of the time our hitters rely on physical attributes to succeed, and that is just not enough to sustain success in MLB. They will all either learn or leave.

[JuanAgosto]

In all seriousness there is something that I don't understand. How has hitting dropped all over baseball? The pitching isn't more dominant than it was 25 or 30 years ago. In fact, I would argue that the pitching is worse. Yet averages continue to decline.

I know many consider batting average to be a fossil stat. But it still shows success (or failure) in the ability to hit. And having the ability to hit should still be valuable.

[scoutyjones2]

Some of our hitters just appear to be clueless as to how opposing pitchers are trying to work to them.
Example #1. Wrong way,
1st inning, Donovan gets a get me over fastball down the middle to lead off and rips a double, nice right? Well, guess what, he’s not seen another one, but keeps swinging at them as if he is.
Sample #2. Right way,
Saggese works an at bat to 9 pitches and hits an outside pitch to right center for a hit. Very good at bat.
His next at bat Abbott tries to come inside after Saggese works another long count and Saggese hits a HR. Another good at bat.
He got an inside pitch to hit because he proved he would not pull off the outside pitch and hit it the other way.
Example #3 Wrong way,
Nootbaar is getting nothing but down and away pitches and he’s pulling off of everyone of them. Why would he get anything else!

The thing is that the Cardinals do not have any Pujols or McGwires, who hit a bunch of HR’s, but almost all the current players keep trying to hit like them with nearly every at bat.
Saggese showed them how to be able to hit more HR’s by waiting for the right pitch.
Herrera is another player who knows when to go for it and when not to.
Obviously Walker, Scott, and Gorman are players who don’t seem to have a clue.

How many teams have a once in a generation player like Pujols. Retead...once in a generation

How does one quantify hitting IQ?

Isn't this the hardest thing to do in sport?

Saggasse is on pace for about 5 HRs over a full year of ABs

[Hazelwood72]

In all seriousness there is something that I don't understand. How has hitting dropped all over baseball? The pitching isn't more dominant than it was 25 or 30 years ago. In fact, I would argue that the pitching is worse. Yet averages continue to decline.

I know many consider batting average to be a fossil stat. But it still shows success (or failure) in the ability to hit. And having the ability to hit should still be valuable.

Juan, I think you’d have to look at the average pitch speed, rotation, etc. My impression (which might be totally wrong) was that pitchers are throwing harder with more spin, which produces more strikeouts, which would produce lower batting averages.

I’m not a stats nerd, so maybe one of the other Cards Talk regulars can supply more background on this.

[bccardsfan]

The game goes through phases over time. Yes, the good pitchers throw harder, and have more spin than all but the best of previous times. But hitting priorities have changed. The HR is valued more and avoiding the K less, so averages decrease because of that. You don't see too many of the Tony Gwynn type hitters. High average, not too worried about power. I think a good lineup would have a balance of these guys in it. A guy like Saggese is never going to be a power hitter and should focus on high OBP, high average. Get on base, hit singles with RISP, etc... A guy like Gorman focuses on power (but certainly should improve his average beyond .220). I too lament the complete lack of focus on batting average. I have a PhD and understand stats and analytics, but a lineup with one or two guys who consistently hit north of .300 would be dangerous. Sure, you need some thumpers too. As scouty said, a guy like Pujols who hits for power and average is a generational player. But there are plenty of "Pujols lite" players, who hit above .270 and have power. We desperately need some +.800 OPS guys on this team (who can play at least average D). Average isn't everything. As I said above, the guys who need to set the table and are not going to hit 20 dingers need to focus on that skill set. Get on base, put the bat on the ball. You need a couple of those guys in a good lineup and they are a dying breed.

If MLB goes to the automated strike zone it will be interesting to see what that does. If they actually get it right, then a pitch on the black will still be a strike and one off the plate that is often called to ring a guy up, will be a ball as it should. This will change both hitting and pitching approaches. Again, it will be interesting to see what that does to the game, provided they actually get it right, which will not be easy.

[rockondlouie]

Some of our hitters just appear to be clueless as to how opposing pitchers are trying to work to them.
Example #1. Wrong way,
1st inning, Donovan gets a get me over fastball down the middle to lead off and rips a double, nice right? Well, guess what, he’s not seen another one, but keeps swinging at them as if he is.
Sample #2. Right way,
Saggese works an at bat to 9 pitches and hits an outside pitch to right center for a hit. Very good at bat.
His next at bat Abbott tries to come inside after Saggese works another long count and Saggese hits a HR. Another good at bat.
He got an inside pitch to hit because he proved he would not pull off the outside pitch and hit it the other way.
Example #3 Wrong way,
Nootbaar is getting nothing but down and away pitches and he’s pulling off of everyone of them. Why would he get anything else!

The thing is that the Cardinals do not have any Pujols or McGwires, who hit a bunch of HR’s, but almost all the current players keep trying to hit like them with nearly every at bat.
Saggese showed them how to be able to hit more HR’s by waiting for the right pitch.
Herrera is another player who knows when to go for it and when not to.
Obviously Walker, Scott, and Gorman are players who don’t seem to have a clue.

How many teams have a once in a generation player like Pujols. Retead...once in a generation

How does one quantify hitting IQ?

Isn't this the hardest thing to do in sport?

Saggasse is on pace for about 5 HRs over a full year of ABs

Not sure I want Saggese (JAG) to be the "role model" our hitters should be trying to emulate either.

But hey it was his first HR since April.

[Melville]

In all seriousness there is something that I don't understand. How has hitting dropped all over baseball? The pitching isn't more dominant than it was 25 or 30 years ago. In fact, I would argue that the pitching is worse. Yet averages continue to decline.

I know many consider batting average to be a fossil stat. But it still shows success (or failure) in the ability to hit. And having the ability to hit should still be valuable.

Juan, I think you’d have to look at the average pitch speed, rotation, etc. My impression (which might be totally wrong) was that pitchers are throwing harder with more spin, which produces more strikeouts, which would produce lower batting averages.

I’m not a stats nerd, so maybe one of the other Cards Talk regulars can supply more background on this.

You are correct - to a point.
No question pitchers are throwing harder and with more horizontal movement.
But they are also throwing far fewer strikes - both intentionally and unintentionally.
So, from a hitting perspective, why is there less contact?
Is it all about the pitchers?
Or has pitch recognition decreased?
Or has strike zone discipline decreased?
Or have MLB teams become convinced that it is more efficient and effective to produce runs with fewer balls in play but more balls over the fence?
Bottom line.
Pitching has improved but hitters are intentionally sacrificing BA.

[Melville]

The game goes through phases over time. Yes, the good pitchers throw harder, and have more spin than all but the best of previous times. But hitting priorities have changed. The HR is valued more and avoiding the K less, so averages decrease because of that. You don't see too many of the Tony Gwynn type hitters. High average, not too worried about power. I think a good lineup would have a balance of these guys in it. A guy like Saggese is never going to be a power hitter and should focus on high OBP, high average. Get on base, hit singles with RISP, etc... A guy like Gorman focuses on power (but certainly should improve his average beyond .220). I too lament the complete lack of focus on batting average. I have a PhD and understand stats and analytics, but a lineup with one or two guys who consistently hit north of .300 would be dangerous. Sure, you need some thumpers too. As scouty said, a guy like Pujols who hits for power and average is a generational player. But there are plenty of "Pujols lite" players, who hit above .270 and have power. We desperately need some +.800 OPS guys on this team (who can play at least average D). Average isn't everything. As I said above, the guys who need to set the table and are not going to hit 20 dingers need to focus on that skill set. Get on base, put the bat on the ball. You need a couple of those guys in a good lineup and they are a dying breed.

If MLB goes to the automated strike zone it will be interesting to see what that does. If they actually get it right, then a pitch on the black will still be a strike and one off the plate that is often called to ring a guy up, will be a ball as it should. This will change both hitting and pitching approaches. Again, it will be interesting to see what that does to the game, provided they actually get it right, which will not be easy.

You will understand what I mean when I repeat what I have often posted over the years:
A properly constructed lineup will always be greater than the sum of its parts.
Most folks look at individuals and make snap judgements - and do not really consider how skill sets combine to create maximum return.
As much as I dislike the DH, it is here to stay, which means there are essentially 4 segments to a lineup.
There is one priority skill set at 1-2.
A different priority at 3-5.
A third priority at 6-7.
And a fourth at 8-9.
The biggest issue facing the Cardinals is that they do have an abundance of pieces who potentially fit very well at 6-9, but no more than 2 (even that is questionable) who belong at 1-5 in a quality lineup.

[bccardsfan]

The game goes through phases over time. Yes, the good pitchers throw harder, and have more spin than all but the best of previous times. But hitting priorities have changed. The HR is valued more and avoiding the K less, so averages decrease because of that. You don't see too many of the Tony Gwynn type hitters. High average, not too worried about power. I think a good lineup would have a balance of these guys in it. A guy like Saggese is never going to be a power hitter and should focus on high OBP, high average. Get on base, hit singles with RISP, etc... A guy like Gorman focuses on power (but certainly should improve his average beyond .220). I too lament the complete lack of focus on batting average. I have a PhD and understand stats and analytics, but a lineup with one or two guys who consistently hit north of .300 would be dangerous. Sure, you need some thumpers too. As scouty said, a guy like Pujols who hits for power and average is a generational player. But there are plenty of "Pujols lite" players, who hit above .270 and have power. We desperately need some +.800 OPS guys on this team (who can play at least average D). Average isn't everything. As I said above, the guys who need to set the table and are not going to hit 20 dingers need to focus on that skill set. Get on base, put the bat on the ball. You need a couple of those guys in a good lineup and they are a dying breed.

If MLB goes to the automated strike zone it will be interesting to see what that does. If they actually get it right, then a pitch on the black will still be a strike and one off the plate that is often called to ring a guy up, will be a ball as it should. This will change both hitting and pitching approaches. Again, it will be interesting to see what that does to the game, provided they actually get it right, which will not be easy.

You will understand what I mean when I repeat what I have often posted over the years:
A properly constructed lineup will always be greater than the sum of its parts.
Most folks look at individuals and make snap judgements - and do not really consider how skill sets combine to create maximum return.
As much as I dislike the DH, it is here to stay, which means there are essentially 4 segments to a lineup.
There is one priority skill set at 1-2.
A different priority at 3-5.
A third priority at 6-7.
And a fourth at 8-9.
The biggest issue facing the Cardinals is that they do have an abundance of pieces who potentially fit very well at 6-9, but no more than 2 (even that is questionable) who belong at 1-5 in a quality lineup.

Oh we have our disagreements, but we agree totally on this point. You need a mix of abilities in the lineup, AND you need good D and good pitching. That is why Winn should not be traded in my opinion. He is the next Ozzie on D and can already hit .250. The problem is that he and whoever your defensive CFer or catcher are, need to hit 7-9. Of course you wish that your CFer or C can actually hit in the top 6 if you can find such players. Given the stupid DH rule, you want a 9 hole hitter to be a second lead off type as well if possible. As you, and I, and many others have pointed out, this team is full of guys who should hit 5 or 6-9 in a GOOD lineup. If JJ turns out to be the real deal, and least we will have one guy who belongs in the first 3 spots. If Winn develops offensively, then one day he hits in the top 6 depending on the offensive player he becomes, but not now. Hererra may be a top 6 hitter as he develops, but then he is another of our many DH types who you hide in the field if they have to play there (another byproduct of the stupid DH rule). Pretty pathetic roster construction... another point you and I (and many others on here) have agreed upon for years.

Also, a good manager gets a team that is greater than the sum of its parts. See Brewers. That is one of the many reasons Marmol should have been gone a long time ago....

[dugoutrex]

In all seriousness there is something that I don't understand. How has hitting dropped all over baseball? The pitching isn't more dominant than it was 25 or 30 years ago. In fact, I would argue that the pitching is worse. Yet averages continue to decline.

I know many consider batting average to be a fossil stat. But it still shows success (or failure) in the ability to hit. And having the ability to hit should still be valuable.

pitching is WAY better today

[JuanAgosto]

In all seriousness there is something that I don't understand. How has hitting dropped all over baseball? The pitching isn't more dominant than it was 25 or 30 years ago. In fact, I would argue that the pitching is worse. Yet averages continue to decline.

I know many consider batting average to be a fossil stat. But it still shows success (or failure) in the ability to hit. And having the ability to hit should still be valuable.

Juan, I think you’d have to look at the average pitch speed, rotation, etc. My impression (which might be totally wrong) was that pitchers are throwing harder with more spin, which produces more strikeouts, which would produce lower batting averages.

I’m not a stats nerd, so maybe one of the other Cards Talk regulars can supply more background on this.

I think you are correct with this.

[JuanAgosto]

In all seriousness there is something that I don't understand. How has hitting dropped all over baseball? The pitching isn't more dominant than it was 25 or 30 years ago. In fact, I would argue that the pitching is worse. Yet averages continue to decline.

I know many consider batting average to be a fossil stat. But it still shows success (or failure) in the ability to hit. And having the ability to hit should still be valuable.

pitching is WAY better today

No it isn't. 25 years ago you had Maddux, Smoltz. Glavin, Johnson, Clemens, Pettit, Pedro, Schilling and Oswalt. Today's game does not have that same collection of talent.

[dugoutrex]

In all seriousness there is something that I don't understand. How has hitting dropped all over baseball? The pitching isn't more dominant than it was 25 or 30 years ago. In fact, I would argue that the pitching is worse. Yet averages continue to decline.

I know many consider batting average to be a fossil stat. But it still shows success (or failure) in the ability to hit. And having the ability to hit should still be valuable.

pitching is WAY better today

No it isn't. 25 years ago you had Maddux, Smoltz. Glavin, Johnson, Clemens, Pettit, Pedro, Schilling and Oswalt. Today's game does not have that same collection of talent.

all you have to do is look at bullpens ... case closed!

[The Nard]

In all seriousness there is something that I don't understand. How has hitting dropped all over baseball? The pitching isn't more dominant than it was 25 or 30 years ago. In fact, I would argue that the pitching is worse. Yet averages continue to decline.

I know many consider batting average to be a fossil stat. But it still shows success (or failure) in the ability to hit. And having the ability to hit should still be valuable.

Evaluate the launch angle arguments. They’re seldom swinging on the same plane as a pitched ball