Elliot Friedman's Thoughts On McDavid Contract Situation

[DawgDad]

While I’m sure the NHLPA would like him to get as big of a contract as possible, he knows full well how much the rest of the team matters. He’ll probably end up getting a bit more per year than Draisaitl. He’s not going to go after a 20M max contract. I don’t think any player has gone over 16% of the cap (at least anybody still playing). Crosby’s biggest deal was 15.3%. Mackinnon’s was 15.1%. McDavid’s previous deal was 15.7%. He’ll end up with something similar.

I am not any sort of expert on this, but here are my thoughts.

If McJ is comfortable in Edmonton he might stay. If he's up for another run with them he needs to extend very short term.

He is from Toronto area. In the end I expect him to sign with an Eastern team. Who would Toronto send to the Oilers, in consideration of NMC/NTC? For that matter, who would the Blues send? Neighbours won't get you a pair of worn out skates!

Rags or deserted Isles might make a play. Devils. Boston? Any Florida team. They could tell Kucherov " Come to Edmonton, you're a lot closer to Mother Russia" [as if you can get from Edmonton to Russia]. Hailing from Maykop, I cannot imagine he cares.

So, a Blues package of Thomas, Neighbours, Binnington, with Skinner and other assorted garbage coming back? Would the Blues do that?

[dhsux]

While I’m sure the NHLPA would like him to get as big of a contract as possible, he knows full well how much the rest of the team matters. He’ll probably end up getting a bit more per year than Draisaitl. He’s not going to go after a 20M max contract. I don’t think any player has gone over 16% of the cap (at least anybody still playing). Crosby’s biggest deal was 15.3%. Mackinnon’s was 15.1%. McDavid’s previous deal was 15.7%. He’ll end up with something similar.

I am not any sort of expert on this, but here are my thoughts.

If McJ is comfortable in Edmonton he might stay. If he's up for another run with them he needs to extend very short term.

He is from Toronto area. In the end I expect him to sign with an Eastern team. Who would Toronto send to the Oilers, in consideration of NMC/NTC? For that matter, who would the Blues send? Neighbours won't get you a pair of worn out skates!

Rags or deserted Isles might make a play. Devils. Boston? Any Florida team. They could tell Kucherov " Come to Edmonton, you're a lot closer to Mother Russia" [as if you can get from Edmonton to Russia]. Hailing from Maykop, I cannot imagine he cares.

So, a Blues package of Thomas, Neighbours, Binnington, with Skinner and other assorted garbage coming back? Would the Blues do that?

No they would not nor should they.

Edmonton could win a cup with that haul.

[DawgDad]

While I’m sure the NHLPA would like him to get as big of a contract as possible, he knows full well how much the rest of the team matters. He’ll probably end up getting a bit more per year than Draisaitl. He’s not going to go after a 20M max contract. I don’t think any player has gone over 16% of the cap (at least anybody still playing). Crosby’s biggest deal was 15.3%. Mackinnon’s was 15.1%. McDavid’s previous deal was 15.7%. He’ll end up with something similar.

I am not any sort of expert on this, but here are my thoughts.

If McJ is comfortable in Edmonton he might stay. If he's up for another run with them he needs to extend very short term.

He is from Toronto area. In the end I expect him to sign with an Eastern team. Who would Toronto send to the Oilers, in consideration of NMC/NTC? For that matter, who would the Blues send? Neighbours won't get you a pair of worn out skates!

Rags or deserted Isles might make a play. Devils. Boston? Any Florida team. They could tell Kucherov " Come to Edmonton, you're a lot closer to Mother Russia" [as if you can get from Edmonton to Russia]. Hailing from Maykop, I cannot imagine he cares.

So, a Blues package of Thomas, Neighbours, Binnington, with Skinner and other assorted garbage coming back? Would the Blues do that?

No they would not nor should they.

Edmonton could win a cup with that haul.

Ahem, so could the Blues . . . Thomas, Neighbours, Binnington.

[Old_Goat]

Maybe they sign Carter Hart cheap and hope that he is so motivated to make up lost ground that he becomes the second coming of Grant Fuhr or Dominik Hasek or Patrick Roy or Carey Price? The Oilers have a recent history of signing controversial projects up front. And if they dangle big $ in front of McDavid and Hart looks real, then maybe he'll stay?
Who knows? But the Carolina idea is interesting. And McDavid probably can be very effective for another 7-9 years. I don't know if he has the patience to hang with youngsters as he seeks Cup, but the Sharks, Hawks, Montreal have quite of few super talented. Even Islanders and Roy with a Coach who fully appreciates the goalie position.
I don't see it really working for Toronto.
In the meantime, I like the course that the Blues are on. May take a little time, but it's not hopeless like the tankers.

[zamadoo]

Kyrou
Faulk
Jecho
Jiricek
Hofer
1st

…..or wait a year and dump players like Schenn, Buch, and Faulk and sign him for nothing. First $20M/yr over 7 years gets him.

I don't see Edmonton risk losing McDavid for nothing, so there will be a huge bidding war (if contract negotiations fail).

I do like the idea of trading Buch and the Blues keeping the 1st round pick instead.

Only problem is that McDavid is in the driver's seat with his NMC.

Yeah, those annoying things always seem to throw a wrench in the plans.

And if they would accept Kyrou, Faulk & Buch (for around 22 million) in a deal, why not just keep their superstar. Sorry, I didn't think the trade through enough. Just trying to clear some dead weight and trade from the Blues winger depth, because they have a ton of wingers coming soon.

Imagine a scenario where McDavid refuses to be traded and the Oilers lose him for nothing without winning a Cup.

[TheJackBurton]

Kyrou
Faulk
Jecho
Jiricek
Hofer
1st

…..or wait a year and dump players like Schenn, Buch, and Faulk and sign him for nothing. First $20M/yr over 7 years gets him.

I don't see Edmonton risk losing McDavid for nothing, so there will be a huge bidding war (if contract negotiations fail).

I do like the idea of trading Buch and the Blues keeping the 1st round pick instead.

Only problem is that McDavid is in the driver's seat with his NMC.

Yeah, those annoying things always seem to throw a wrench in the plans.

And if they would accept Kyrou, Faulk & Buch (for around 22 million) in a deal, why not just keep their superstar. Sorry, I didn't think the trade through enough. Just trying to clear some dead weight and trade from the Blues winger depth, because they have a ton of wingers coming soon.

Imagine a scenario where McDavid refuses to be traded and the Oilers lose him for nothing without winning a Cup.

I'd say there's a 40% chance of that happening.

I mean no matter what you trade him for you aren't getting commiserate value back, you are getting quantity basically.

Then on top of that, the return gets worse at the deadline so the best option you have is to try to trade him after the season is over, but that means you can only negotiate with a team he's going to extend with, which will hurt your return.

Essentially if he isn't signed by the new year, and you don't win a Cup this season, it's likely he's gone and you have nothing to show for it except for a bunch of jersey sales.

[Old_Goat]

Kyrou
Faulk
Jecho
Jiricek
Hofer
1st

…..or wait a year and dump players like Schenn, Buch, and Faulk and sign him for nothing. First $20M/yr over 7 years gets him.

I don't see Edmonton risk losing McDavid for nothing, so there will be a huge bidding war (if contract negotiations fail).

I do like the idea of trading Buch and the Blues keeping the 1st round pick instead.

Only problem is that McDavid is in the driver's seat with his NMC.

Yeah, those annoying things always seem to throw a wrench in the plans.

And if they would accept Kyrou, Faulk & Buch (for around 22 million) in a deal, why not just keep their superstar. Sorry, I didn't think the trade through enough. Just trying to clear some dead weight and trade from the Blues winger depth, because they have a ton of wingers coming soon.

Imagine a scenario where McDavid refuses to be traded and the Oilers lose him for nothing without winning a Cup.

I'd say there's a 40% chance of that happening.

I mean no matter what you trade him for you aren't getting commiserate value back, you are getting quantity basically.

Then on top of that, the return gets worse at the deadline so the best option you have is to try to trade him after the season is over, but that means you can only negotiate with a team he's going to extend with, which will hurt your return.

Essentially if he isn't signed by the new year, and you don't win a Cup this season, it's likely he's gone and you have nothing to show for it except for a bunch of jersey sales.

I agree with you. Further to my earlier post...those teams with quite a few young highly regarded talent are not yet tied down with large contracts with them. So, they may have a chance to make other moves to enable room to pay McDavid without having to give their prized assets up and make sure they that they have a good goalie. And then they'll have to figure out how to juggle to sign & keep as many as possible down the road a bit. Winning, success, Championships have a way of attracting other players.
I mean, how many more hamburgers can you eat with $60MM versus $48MM, when you can have a chance to be called a champion, or play more games with other great players to enhance your profile in a community or profession or other maybe even the Hall-Of-Fame?
Edmonton has failed multiple times PERIOD. McDavid has to wonder.

[TheJackBurton]

Kyrou
Faulk
Jecho
Jiricek
Hofer
1st

…..or wait a year and dump players like Schenn, Buch, and Faulk and sign him for nothing. First $20M/yr over 7 years gets him.

I don't see Edmonton risk losing McDavid for nothing, so there will be a huge bidding war (if contract negotiations fail).

I do like the idea of trading Buch and the Blues keeping the 1st round pick instead.

Only problem is that McDavid is in the driver's seat with his NMC.

Yeah, those annoying things always seem to throw a wrench in the plans.

And if they would accept Kyrou, Faulk & Buch (for around 22 million) in a deal, why not just keep their superstar. Sorry, I didn't think the trade through enough. Just trying to clear some dead weight and trade from the Blues winger depth, because they have a ton of wingers coming soon.

Imagine a scenario where McDavid refuses to be traded and the Oilers lose him for nothing without winning a Cup.

I'd say there's a 40% chance of that happening.

I mean no matter what you trade him for you aren't getting commiserate value back, you are getting quantity basically.

Then on top of that, the return gets worse at the deadline so the best option you have is to try to trade him after the season is over, but that means you can only negotiate with a team he's going to extend with, which will hurt your return.

Essentially if he isn't signed by the new year, and you don't win a Cup this season, it's likely he's gone and you have nothing to show for it except for a bunch of jersey sales.

I agree with you. Further to my earlier post...those teams with quite a few young highly regarded talent are not yet tied down with large contracts with them. So, they may have a chance to make other moves to enable room to pay McDavid without having to give their prized assets up and make sure they that they have a good goalie. And then they'll have to figure out how to juggle to sign & keep as many as possible down the road a bit. Winning, success, Championships have a way of attracting other players.
I mean, how many more hamburgers can you eat with $60MM versus $48MM, when you can have a chance to be called a champion, or play more games with other great players to enhance your profile in a community or profession or other maybe even the Hall-Of-Fame?
Edmonton has failed multiple times PERIOD. McDavid has to wonder.

I think with all great players it all starts with ego, being the best, making the most money, getting all the endorsements.

The greatest ones though it's about winning first and foremost. I think McDavid is finally at that point and he needs to figure out if the money is worth more than the glory.

[Hooking]

Posturing.

Nobody should expect him to say "Oh I want to leave" or "Oh I am going to stay." Obviously.

However you usually see "I would love to stay here, this is where I want to be. This is a great team with a great city and great fanbase. I love it here" - Pujols, Pietrangelo, Backes.... etc.


The fact that he is not acting like that, well it has already been said here but I agree - he is putting EDM on notice.



What would be hilarious is if he signs with FLA and they go the finals next season, play EDM and EDM wins.

It could happen. In 2008 Marion Hossa was on the Penguins, they got him at the deadline to pursue the Cup...lost in Finals to the Red Wings. Pens made him a very nice 5-year offer, but he passed on that and signed with the Red Wings in effort to win a cup, they then lost to the Penguins in 2009. His frustrating efforts eventually did get his name on it 3-times with Chicago. But he had to really have been talking to himself a lot in 2009!

That's it! I was trying to remember who it happened to recently in the NHL but was too lazy at the time to look it up. Thanks.

[SRV1990]

Kyrou
Faulk
Jecho
Jiricek
Hofer
1st

…..or wait a year and dump players like Schenn, Buch, and Faulk and sign him for nothing. First $20M/yr over 7 years gets him.

I don't see Edmonton risk losing McDavid for nothing, so there will be a huge bidding war (if contract negotiations fail).

I do like the idea of trading Buch and the Blues keeping the 1st round pick instead.

Only problem is that McDavid is in the driver's seat with his NMC.

Yeah, those annoying things always seem to throw a wrench in the plans.

And if they would accept Kyrou, Faulk & Buch (for around 22 million) in a deal, why not just keep their superstar. Sorry, I didn't think the trade through enough. Just trying to clear some dead weight and trade from the Blues winger depth, because they have a ton of wingers coming soon.

Imagine a scenario where McDavid refuses to be traded and the Oilers lose him for nothing without winning a Cup.

I'd say there's a 40% chance of that happening.

I mean no matter what you trade him for you aren't getting commiserate value back, you are getting quantity basically.

Then on top of that, the return gets worse at the deadline so the best option you have is to try to trade him after the season is over, but that means you can only negotiate with a team he's going to extend with, which will hurt your return.

Essentially if he isn't signed by the new year, and you don't win a Cup this season, it's likely he's gone and you have nothing to show for it except for a bunch of jersey sales.

And we all know that jersey sales win Cups!

If he signs a new deal with the Oilers, and assuming it will be for more than Drai got, it's hard to imagine them having much left to round out their roster with enough quality pieces to keep them as contenders. That would be a ton of dough tied up in McDavid and Drai.

[TheJackBurton]

Kyrou
Faulk
Jecho
Jiricek
Hofer
1st

…..or wait a year and dump players like Schenn, Buch, and Faulk and sign him for nothing. First $20M/yr over 7 years gets him.

I don't see Edmonton risk losing McDavid for nothing, so there will be a huge bidding war (if contract negotiations fail).

I do like the idea of trading Buch and the Blues keeping the 1st round pick instead.

Only problem is that McDavid is in the driver's seat with his NMC.

Yeah, those annoying things always seem to throw a wrench in the plans.

And if they would accept Kyrou, Faulk & Buch (for around 22 million) in a deal, why not just keep their superstar. Sorry, I didn't think the trade through enough. Just trying to clear some dead weight and trade from the Blues winger depth, because they have a ton of wingers coming soon.

Imagine a scenario where McDavid refuses to be traded and the Oilers lose him for nothing without winning a Cup.

I'd say there's a 40% chance of that happening.

I mean no matter what you trade him for you aren't getting commiserate value back, you are getting quantity basically.

Then on top of that, the return gets worse at the deadline so the best option you have is to try to trade him after the season is over, but that means you can only negotiate with a team he's going to extend with, which will hurt your return.

Essentially if he isn't signed by the new year, and you don't win a Cup this season, it's likely he's gone and you have nothing to show for it except for a bunch of jersey sales.

And we all know that jersey sales win Cups!

If he signs a new deal with the Oilers, and assuming it will be for more than Drai got, it's hard to imagine them having much left to round out their roster with enough quality pieces to keep them as contenders. That would be a ton of dough tied up in McDavid and Drai.

Remember they just signed Bouchard to 10.5 so if they extend McDavid to let's say a million over Drai to 15 million you would then have:

McDavid at 15
Drai at 14
Bouchard at 10.5
Nurse at 9.25

That's 48.75 or 46% of your cap taken up on 4 players.

That's just awful cap management.

[IsDurbanodoingtime]

Kyrou
Faulk
Jecho
Jiricek
Hofer
1st

…..or wait a year and dump players like Schenn, Buch, and Faulk and sign him for nothing. First $20M/yr over 7 years gets him.

I don't see Edmonton risk losing McDavid for nothing, so there will be a huge bidding war (if contract negotiations fail).

I do like the idea of trading Buch and the Blues keeping the 1st round pick instead.

Only problem is that McDavid is in the driver's seat with his NMC.

Yeah, those annoying things always seem to throw a wrench in the plans.

And if they would accept Kyrou, Faulk & Buch (for around 22 million) in a deal, why not just keep their superstar. Sorry, I didn't think the trade through enough. Just trying to clear some dead weight and trade from the Blues winger depth, because they have a ton of wingers coming soon.

Imagine a scenario where McDavid refuses to be traded and the Oilers lose him for nothing without winning a Cup.

I'd say there's a 40% chance of that happening.

I mean no matter what you trade him for you aren't getting commiserate value back, you are getting quantity basically.

Then on top of that, the return gets worse at the deadline so the best option you have is to try to trade him after the season is over, but that means you can only negotiate with a team he's going to extend with, which will hurt your return.

Essentially if he isn't signed by the new year, and you don't win a Cup this season, it's likely he's gone and you have nothing to show for it except for a bunch of jersey sales.

And we all know that jersey sales win Cups!

If he signs a new deal with the Oilers, and assuming it will be for more than Drai got, it's hard to imagine them having much left to round out their roster with enough quality pieces to keep them as contenders. That would be a ton of dough tied up in McDavid and Drai.

Remember they just signed Bouchard to 10.5 so if they extend McDavid to let's say a million over Drai to 15 million you would then have:

McDavid at 15
Drai at 14
Bouchard at 10.5
Nurse at 9.25

That's 48.75 or 46% of your cap taken up on 4 players.

That's just awful cap management.

That Nurse contract is just awful. One of many that Holland inked. Couple that with jack campbell and you wondwr what moron gave ken a job in LA.

[shootsnscores]

Dvorsky Kyrou And 3 #1 picks with a Contract extension for Mcdavid. Get it done LEERY..

[rezero]

Kyrou
Faulk
Jecho
Jiricek
Hofer
1st

…..or wait a year and dump players like Schenn, Buch, and Faulk and sign him for nothing. First $20M/yr over 7 years gets him.

I don't see Edmonton risk losing McDavid for nothing, so there will be a huge bidding war (if contract negotiations fail).

I do like the idea of trading Buch and the Blues keeping the 1st round pick instead.

Only problem is that McDavid is in the driver's seat with his NMC.

Yeah, those annoying things always seem to throw a wrench in the plans.

And if they would accept Kyrou, Faulk & Buch (for around 22 million) in a deal, why not just keep their superstar. Sorry, I didn't think the trade through enough. Just trying to clear some dead weight and trade from the Blues winger depth, because they have a ton of wingers coming soon.

Imagine a scenario where McDavid refuses to be traded and the Oilers lose him for nothing without winning a Cup.

I'd say there's a 40% chance of that happening.

I mean no matter what you trade him for you aren't getting commiserate value back, you are getting quantity basically.

Then on top of that, the return gets worse at the deadline so the best option you have is to try to trade him after the season is over, but that means you can only negotiate with a team he's going to extend with, which will hurt your return.

Essentially if he isn't signed by the new year, and you don't win a Cup this season, it's likely he's gone and you have nothing to show for it except for a bunch of jersey sales.

Exactly. McD will say, I will only accept a trade to these 3 teams. That will significantly reduce the teams leverage for a trade knowing there are very few suitors. They will get something for him, but it will not be a kings ransom. Plus Oilers will not want players signed on high dollar long term contracts or they would just resign Conner. The package will be picks and prospects.

Again…..the first $20M/7yrs will get him. People are saying he will only sign for 16% of the salary cap because of past precedent, need to realize when the cap goes up that percentage gets higher as the percent of that cap for entry players is smaller.

[dhsux]

Kyrou
Faulk
Jecho
Jiricek
Hofer
1st

…..or wait a year and dump players like Schenn, Buch, and Faulk and sign him for nothing. First $20M/yr over 7 years gets him.

I don't see Edmonton risk losing McDavid for nothing, so there will be a huge bidding war (if contract negotiations fail).

I do like the idea of trading Buch and the Blues keeping the 1st round pick instead.

Only problem is that McDavid is in the driver's seat with his NMC.

Yeah, those annoying things always seem to throw a wrench in the plans.

And if they would accept Kyrou, Faulk & Buch (for around 22 million) in a deal, why not just keep their superstar. Sorry, I didn't think the trade through enough. Just trying to clear some dead weight and trade from the Blues winger depth, because they have a ton of wingers coming soon.

Imagine a scenario where McDavid refuses to be traded and the Oilers lose him for nothing without winning a Cup.

I'd say there's a 40% chance of that happening.

I mean no matter what you trade him for you aren't getting commiserate value back, you are getting quantity basically.

Then on top of that, the return gets worse at the deadline so the best option you have is to try to trade him after the season is over, but that means you can only negotiate with a team he's going to extend with, which will hurt your return.

Essentially if he isn't signed by the new year, and you don't win a Cup this season, it's likely he's gone and you have nothing to show for it except for a bunch of jersey sales.

Exactly. McD will say, I will only accept a trade to these 3 teams. That will significantly reduce the teams leverage for a trade knowing there are very few suitors. They will get something for him, but it will not be a kings ransom. Plus Oilers will not want players signed on high dollar long term contracts or they would just resign Conner. The package will be picks and prospects.

Again…..the first $20M/7yrs will get him. People are saying he will only sign for 16% of the salary cap because of past precedent, need to realize when the cap goes up that percentage gets higher as the percent of that cap for entry players is smaller.

The guy wants a Cup. That's foremost. 20 million ain't happening because he won't ask for that crippling aav from any team long term, imo.

I think he's in a tough spot because imo that Cup ain't coming to EDM any longer and now he has to figure out who it's coming to in the next 5-6 years and roll the dice he signs with that team.

That's how I see it anyway. He may well resign himself to EDM or bust and just retire there but make no mistake he wants a Cup he already has everything else.

[SRV1990]

Kyrou
Faulk
Jecho
Jiricek
Hofer
1st

…..or wait a year and dump players like Schenn, Buch, and Faulk and sign him for nothing. First $20M/yr over 7 years gets him.

I don't see Edmonton risk losing McDavid for nothing, so there will be a huge bidding war (if contract negotiations fail).

I do like the idea of trading Buch and the Blues keeping the 1st round pick instead.

Only problem is that McDavid is in the driver's seat with his NMC.

Yeah, those annoying things always seem to throw a wrench in the plans.

And if they would accept Kyrou, Faulk & Buch (for around 22 million) in a deal, why not just keep their superstar. Sorry, I didn't think the trade through enough. Just trying to clear some dead weight and trade from the Blues winger depth, because they have a ton of wingers coming soon.

Imagine a scenario where McDavid refuses to be traded and the Oilers lose him for nothing without winning a Cup.

I'd say there's a 40% chance of that happening.

I mean no matter what you trade him for you aren't getting commiserate value back, you are getting quantity basically.

Then on top of that, the return gets worse at the deadline so the best option you have is to try to trade him after the season is over, but that means you can only negotiate with a team he's going to extend with, which will hurt your return.

Essentially if he isn't signed by the new year, and you don't win a Cup this season, it's likely he's gone and you have nothing to show for it except for a bunch of jersey sales.

And we all know that jersey sales win Cups!

If he signs a new deal with the Oilers, and assuming it will be for more than Drai got, it's hard to imagine them having much left to round out their roster with enough quality pieces to keep them as contenders. That would be a ton of dough tied up in McDavid and Drai.

Remember they just signed Bouchard to 10.5 so if they extend McDavid to let's say a million over Drai to 15 million you would then have:

McDavid at 15
Drai at 14
Bouchard at 10.5
Nurse at 9.25

That's 48.75 or 46% of your cap taken up on 4 players.

That's just awful cap management.

Yikes, that is pretty bad!