Big 4 shortstops from 2022 offseason

[imadangman]

Yeah but I would feel a lot better right now today if, precisely during the winter months of 2022, John Mozeliak had put forward to us fans a display of doing "something."

Agreement.

All 4 teams those players play for are doing pretty well.
FA spending isn't for bargain hunting, it's an attempt to win.
Those players didn't bankrupt their teams or become prohibitive
to acquiring other players on those teams.

I was being sarcastic really so my bad for not using blue font haha.
I guess when we look at it, Turner and Swanson seem to have really helped their teams. I still wouldn't sign them. You pay a premium in free agency only for when it's something you truly need and puts you over the top. We knew Masyn Winn was on the way. And the true need has been and continues to be Ace pitcher.
I doubt Swanson or Turner would have made a big difference for the '23/'24 teams.

[ScotchMIrish]

I remember when this was a hot topic on CT. Would the Cards try to outbid someone for one of the big 4 SSs? I'm glad the Cards didn't acquire any of them, although I sure wanted TT back then.
None with an OPS over .800. Only two with an OPS+ that's over 110 (115 is the high).
The contracts averaged 8.75 years and $27.3M/yr.
Almost a billion spent on them.

Screenshot 2025-08-19 at 4.31.26 PM.png

Those are good numbers for a position where defense is the most important thing.

[hugeCardfan]

Yeah but I would feel a lot better right now today if, precisely during the winter months of 2022, John Mozeliak had put forward to us fans a display of doing "something."

I'm sure glad he didn't sign those 4. He did ok with Peralta a couple of years.

At some point should a fan be more concerned about production or
the budget? Aware the Cardinals do have a budget.

What season does Winn produce 20+ HR's and what could he have got
the Cardinals in a trade, a cheaper younger Sonny Gray?

Elite defense means he doesn't need to hit 20+ HRs. Cards need to focus on finding that 20+ HRs from multiple other positions first before worrying about SS. No 2025 Cardinal has hit that mark yet. If your corner IFs and OFs are slugging, that takes care of the problem.

If Winn grows into consistently hitting 15 HRs, 35 doubles, 20 SBs to a 110-115 wRC+, he's a 5-6 win player. Wasn't that far off offensively as a rookie. Upping his walk rate to a league average 8% would go a long way.

+

Finishing up a sophomore year. Let's see what next year does.

[ClassicO]

I remember when this was a hot topic on CT. Would the Cards try to outbid someone for one of the big 4 SSs? I'm glad the Cards didn't acquire any of them, although I sure wanted TT back then.
None with an OPS over .800. Only two with an OPS+ that's over 110 (115 is the high).
The contracts averaged 8.75 years and $27.3M/yr.
Almost a billion spent on them.

Screenshot 2025-08-19 at 4.31.26 PM.png

Those are good numbers for a position where defense is the most important thing.

Are they? A lot of teams have very good shortstops = Witt, Lindor, Perdomo, Henderson, Winn, Pena, Abrams, Neto, Elly De La Cruz (not defensively), etc.

fWAR in 2025. (Winn is 8th)
Turner is 2nd in WAR behind Witt because he runs so well, is a plus-hitter, and is good, not great, defensively.
Bogaerts is 10th in WAR.
Swanson is 18th
Correa is 20th in WAR.

Defense (note the discrepancies in DRS and OAA):
As others have noted, before this year, only Swanson was great defensively in the past, although Turner is having one of his only decent defensive years at +1 DRS (-12 and -14 DRS the past two years).

Correa is 24th out of 25 Qualified shortstops in DRS (16th OAA)
Bogaerts is 18th in DRS (6th in OAA),
Turner is 10th in DRS (4th in OAA),
Swanson is 6th in DRS (12th in OAA)

And at their respective ages, with a long time on the contracts, the defense will likely not improve.

[Chitownredbird]

Turner was and is a winning ball player. Back then (when I still naively believed ownership cared about winning enough to spend $$), TT was my #1 desire.

Had we acquired him, he would have moved to CF or 2B (probably CF considering our deplorable OF) when Winn arrived and would have been/be a fixture in the lineup hitting 2 or 3.

[Ronnie Dobbs]

Lock up Masyn Winn now. Don’t worry about having to make a decision like this in the future and end up signing a guy like this into his late 30s.

[scoutyjones2]

All of them were overvalued and some of us said so at the time. Swanson was a dubious bat coming off a career year. Turner was a speed-based guy who had an aggressive approach that won't age well. Bogaerts was a bad defender whose bat goes from "great" to "good" at 3B.

Correa was a tier above the rest, but nobody knew about his glass ankles when they rated him that high.

Nobody knew? Dude failed two physicals before finally signing that deal with the Twins.

Not to mention, the Astros clearly knew as they never even seriously engaged him to stay.

Who's he playing for now?

[ClassicO]

All of them were overvalued and some of us said so at the time. Swanson was a dubious bat coming off a career year. Turner was a speed-based guy who had an aggressive approach that won't age well. Bogaerts was a bad defender whose bat goes from "great" to "good" at 3B.

Correa was a tier above the rest, but nobody knew about his glass ankles when they rated him that high.

Nobody knew? Dude failed two physicals before finally signing that deal with the Twins.

Not to mention, the Astros clearly knew as they never even seriously engaged him to stay.

Who's he playing for now?

[ScotchMIrish]

I remember when this was a hot topic on CT. Would the Cards try to outbid someone for one of the big 4 SSs? I'm glad the Cards didn't acquire any of them, although I sure wanted TT back then.
None with an OPS over .800. Only two with an OPS+ that's over 110 (115 is the high).
The contracts averaged 8.75 years and $27.3M/yr.
Almost a billion spent on them.

Screenshot 2025-08-19 at 4.31.26 PM.png

Those are good numbers for a position where defense is the most important thing.

Are they? A lot of teams have very good shortstops = Witt, Lindor, Perdomo, Henderson, Winn, Pena, Abrams, Neto, Elly De La Cruz (not defensively), etc.

fWAR in 2025. (Winn is 8th)
Turner is 2nd in WAR behind Witt because he runs so well, is a plus-hitter, and is good, not great, defensively.
Bogaerts is 10th in WAR.
Swanson is 18th
Correa is 20th in WAR.

Defense (note the discrepancies in DRS and OAA):
As others have noted, before this year, only Swanson was great defensively in the past, although Turner is having one of his only decent defensive years at +1 DRS (-12 and -14 DRS the past two years).

Correa is 24th out of 25 Qualified shortstops in DRS (16th OAA)
Bogaerts is 18th in DRS (6th in OAA),
Turner is 10th in DRS (4th in OAA),
Swanson is 6th in DRS (12th in OAA)

And at their respective ages, with a long time on the contracts, the defense will likely not improve.

No offense but you lose me with the sabermetrics stuff. The most important attribute at shortstop is defense. If they are good shortstops defensively then the offense is a plus.

[renostl]

Yeah but I would feel a lot better right now today if, precisely during the winter months of 2022, John Mozeliak had put forward to us fans a display of doing "something."

Agreement.

All 4 teams those players play for are doing pretty well.
FA spending isn't for bargain hunting, it's an attempt to win.
Those players didn't bankrupt their teams or become prohibitive
to acquiring other players on those teams.

I was being sarcastic really so my bad for not using blue font haha.
I guess when we look at it, Turner and Swanson seem to have really helped their teams. I still wouldn't sign them. You pay a premium in free agency only for when it's something you truly need and puts you over the top. We knew Masyn Winn was on the way. And the true need has been and continues to be Ace pitcher.
I doubt Swanson or Turner would have made a big difference for the '23/'24 teams.

As commented on page 1.
"FA isn't for bargain hunting, it's used in an attempt to win "

My suggestion was that the overpay isn't an absolute.
Might the Cardinals have been in a position to trade someone or a package for that needed pitching perhaps not later chasing a Sonny Gray.

It's all good. Can't go back Winn is solid.
Sarcasm I failed to recognize but I do prefer when the team is attempting to improve.

[renostl]

Yeah but I would feel a lot better right now today if, precisely during the winter months of 2022, John Mozeliak had put forward to us fans a display of doing "something."

I'm sure glad he didn't sign those 4. He did ok with Peralta a couple of years.

At some point should a fan be more concerned about production or
the budget? Aware the Cardinals do have a budget.

What season does Winn produce 20+ HR's and what could he have got
the Cardinals in a trade, a cheaper younger Sonny Gray?

Elite defense means he doesn't need to hit 20+ HRs. Cards need to focus on finding that 20+ HRs from multiple other positions first before worrying about SS. No 2025 Cardinal has hit that mark yet. If your corner IFs and OFs are slugging, that takes care of the problem.

If Winn grows into consistently hitting 15 HRs, 35 doubles, 20 SBs to a 110-115 wRC+, he's a 5-6 win player. Wasn't that far off offensively as a rookie. Upping his walk rate to a league average 8% would go a long way.

Nothing to disagree with. Can't go back, Winn seems solid.

Dansby does carry a good glove though, GG level.

True that the Cards need to find HR's elsewhere. Your points on the corners are also true and as 2025 says are part of the issue. WC and NA are still here. 2B, C, CF don't look to have that production. Kinda leaves 2 spots that have to bring it.

[WaltsSuccessor]

All of them were overvalued and some of us said so at the time. Swanson was a dubious bat coming off a career year. Turner was a speed-based guy who had an aggressive approach that won't age well. Bogaerts was a bad defender whose bat goes from "great" to "good" at 3B.

Correa was a tier above the rest, but nobody knew about his glass ankles when they rated him that high.

Nobody knew? Dude failed two physicals before finally signing that deal with the Twins.

Not to mention, the Astros clearly knew as they never even seriously engaged him to stay.

Who's he playing for now?

The Astros. At 66 cents on the dollar. The Twins are paying him $33m over 2026-2028 to go away.

Astros would've happily extended him at $21m per had that been an option after 2022.

Also worth adding they brought him back to play 3B where his defense is less impactful (positively or negatively).

[renostl]

All of them were overvalued and some of us said so at the time. Swanson was a dubious bat coming off a career year. Turner was a speed-based guy who had an aggressive approach that won't age well. Bogaerts was a bad defender whose bat goes from "great" to "good" at 3B.

Correa was a tier above the rest, but nobody knew about his glass ankles when they rated him that high.

Nobody knew? Dude failed two physicals before finally signing that deal with the Twins.

Not to mention, the Astros clearly knew as they never even seriously engaged him to stay.

Who's he playing for now?

The Astros. At 66 cents on the dollar. The Twins are paying him $33m over 2026-2028 to go away.

Astros would've happily extended him at $21m per had that been an option after 2022.

Also worth adding they brought him back to play 3B where his defense is less impactful (positively or negatively).

The Twins are saving 66 cents on the dollar.
The money was obligated at a higher level.

SS usually have that ability. IF the bat holds terms into the mid 30's aren't terrible