$200m payroll prediction

[Stlcardsblues]

brewers are running away with the best record in baseball with a payroll of 100 mill...mets and yanks struggling with enormous payrolls...just saying....obviously on balance spending more should be better but it is amazing how often spend tons of money and stink

And the Brewers do nothing come playoff time. They are built to contend in a weak division, not a playoff run.

[DickyBennett]

New ownership would be required

[Youboughtit]

brewers are running away with the best record in baseball with a payroll of 100 mill...mets and yanks struggling with enormous payrolls...just saying....obviously on balance spending more should be better but it is amazing how often spend tons of money and stink

And the Brewers do nothing come playoff time. They are built to contend in a weak division, not a playoff run.

10-12 playoff teams will likely have top 10 payrolls. You pick the outlier who has been eliminated in the WC every time they sneak in as your defense not to spend? Aim higher.

[cardstatman]

brewers are running away with the best record in baseball with a payroll of 100 mill...mets and yanks struggling with enormous payrolls...just saying....obviously on balance spending more should be better but it is amazing how often spend tons of money and stink

And the Brewers do nothing come playoff time. They are built to contend in a weak division, not a playoff run.

What weak division?

Your math is weak if you think the NL Central division is weak.

[Youboughtit]

brewers are running away with the best record in baseball with a payroll of 100 mill...mets and yanks struggling with enormous payrolls...just saying....obviously on balance spending more should be better but it is amazing how often spend tons of money and stink

And the Brewers do nothing come playoff time. They are built to contend in a weak division, not a playoff run.

What weak division?

Your math is weak if you think the NL Central division is weak.

They have been eliminated in first round of playoffs 5 straight years. Not built for post season. Aim higher

[Stlcardsblues]

brewers are running away with the best record in baseball with a payroll of 100 mill...mets and yanks struggling with enormous payrolls...just saying....obviously on balance spending more should be better but it is amazing how often spend tons of money and stink

And the Brewers do nothing come playoff time. They are built to contend in a weak division, not a playoff run.

10-12 playoff teams will likely have top 10 payrolls. You pick the outlier who has been eliminated in the WC every time they sneak in as your defense not to spend? Aim higher.

Sounds like we agree. I am saying the Brewers model is not built for playoff success.

[Stlcardsblues]

brewers are running away with the best record in baseball with a payroll of 100 mill...mets and yanks struggling with enormous payrolls...just saying....obviously on balance spending more should be better but it is amazing how often spend tons of money and stink

And the Brewers do nothing come playoff time. They are built to contend in a weak division, not a playoff run.

What weak division?

Your math is weak if you think the NL Central division is weak.

The Central is not a strong division. It’s why their teams don’t go deep in the playoffs.

[ICCFIM2]

in 94 the lockout happened over the same thing.... Owners wanted a Cap and Hard Floor.

I don't think the Owners flinch this time around.

A CAP is coming...and Floor is coming.

Maybe but it will be $300-$350m and with a floor of 80%. Otherwise it won’t work. Big markets have already spent and they will not penalize them.

80% of 300million for a floor? There's no way. That will Force Contract at least 8 teams....probably like 12-14 after all is said and done? They don't want to shrink the league.

The lowest professional floor is 82% NHL NBA NFL MLS and all sports included. That’s the standard to get the cap.

start the Cap...much lower than 300

if you don't the owners will be forced to pay "Veteran Contracts" around 40million per year to B and C grade talent...over the hill talent. That's what irks me about the NBA structure....ludicrous contracts for aged veterans.

It is hard to imagine the owners would go with a cap that low. The big money teams like the Dodgers, Yankees, Mets etc. have such a huge advantage, why would they give that up? I think the more likely outcome is larger payroll tax penalties (Slightly lower threshhold and higher rates), combined with a floor and an international draft.

The increased tax, while not a cap, is a concession the players will have to make. The big revenue teams will not like it, but, it still is not a hard cap. The floor gets more money to more players and is the owners concession to the players. The international draft is for the good of the game and competition. I am not certain why the players would care so much about this. But, I do recall this was discussed at the last CBA and it did not get through. I don't recall why.

I know Manfred has mentioned a cap and that is why there is anticipation of this. MLB is also talking about adding 2 expansion teams. I am guessing the expansion fee might be in the range of $1-1.5B per team. If it totals $3B, every team is putting $100M in their pocket. It is hard to imagine the owners are going to cause a long work stoppage over an issue like a cap, that many of them don't agree with, when they are all in line to collect a huge amount of cash.

[Mort Gage]

in 94 the lockout happened over the same thing.... Owners wanted a Cap and Hard Floor.

I don't think the Owners flinch this time around.

A CAP is coming...and Floor is coming.

Agree. The players will fight that fiercely, but I think it gets done in some form.

What can the owners offer? That’s the problem. That is a “pipe dream” as and to get it owners have to give equal value. 100% revenue sharing and a super high floor may not even be enough. The players have the owners bent over a barrel this time

Owners could knock a year or two of service time off the six needed to reach FA. Maybe an NBA model with a 50/50 revenue target split with players. Most owners have other businesses and/or inherited money so financially they can weather a stoppage better than most players. The players didn't get many concessions in the last CBA and I think they will dig their heels in this time. Enjoy the '26 season!

Not true. The TV broadcast pressure is real. Baseball fanbase is dwindling. A stoppage will cost more viewers. Owners know even a short stoppage will hurt the sport. 50% of players are now millionaires. Not like last time when it was 5%. I expect the players to be big winners in this deal

I get that, but owners have greater revenue streams outside of baseball. When there's a stoppage your average player with 2-3 years service isn't pulling in nearly as much.

[Red7]

in 94 the lockout happened over the same thing.... Owners wanted a Cap and Hard Floor.

I don't think the Owners flinch this time around.

A CAP is coming...and Floor is coming.

Agree with this. As much as the players and owners are at odds over the idea, you have to be blind to see how the game is evolving now and the need for this change.

Every professional sports league has some form of this. The need for a hard cap, a reasonable floor and some form of revenue sharing is a must for all teams in MLB to thrive. This can’t become the giant 10 and it’s 20 minions. There’s several reasons that baseball is struggling and one of those reasons is the lack of competition between the haves and have nots.

That issue should never be on the backs of the players. What is needed is a revenue cap. No team can make more than $500 million. All revenues above that is paid into a central fund and distributed to the teams below the $500 million threshold.

[Bomber1]

in 94 the lockout happened over the same thing.... Owners wanted a Cap and Hard Floor.

I don't think the Owners flinch this time around.

A CAP is coming...and Floor is coming.

Maybe but it will be $300-$350m and with a floor of 80%. Otherwise it won’t work. Big markets have already spent and they will not penalize them.

So you answer is they will be a small market team forced to go over $200m to meet the floor?

If you think the salary floor will be $ 240,000,000 you are completely delusional.

[Swuhgen]

Currently 12 teams are over $200m and 10 are in playoff contention and 4 are winning their divisions. Looking for everyone predictions on what year the Cardinals will join that club and secondly will the bar be over $300m when it does happen. My guess is 10 years. Likely with new owner.

I'm thinking it will take 7-10 years for the Cards to get to 200 million payroll.
I think we will see 130-150 the next few years.

I have no idea why.

[Youboughtit]

in 94 the lockout happened over the same thing.... Owners wanted a Cap and Hard Floor.

I don't think the Owners flinch this time around.

A CAP is coming...and Floor is coming.

Maybe but it will be $300-$350m and with a floor of 80%. Otherwise it won’t work. Big markets have already spent and they will not penalize them.

So you answer is they will be a small market team forced to go over $200m to meet the floor?

If you think the salary floor will be $ 240,000,000 you are completely delusional.

Players have the owners over a barrel and will ask for the moon. Why wouldn’t the floor be the same as every other sport? The lowest of the NFL NHL MLS NBA is 82%

[Swuhgen]

Currently 12 teams are over $200m and 10 are in playoff contention and 4 are winning their divisions. Looking for everyone predictions on what year the Cardinals will join that club and secondly will the bar be over $300m when it does happen. My guess is 10 years. Likely with new owner.

We will easily be over 200 mil way before 10 years. We announced we were cutting payroll just fir 2 seasons. We were at near 180 mil in 2024 and i expect us to rebound close to that in 2027 then push to 200 mil not long after

Highly doubtful. The front office has totally changed perspective on payroll. They won't be spending 200 mill for a long time. Won't be anywhere near 180 by 2027.

[Whatashame]

in 94 the lockout happened over the same thing.... Owners wanted a Cap and Hard Floor.

I don't think the Owners flinch this time around.

A CAP is coming...and Floor is coming.

Agree with this. As much as the players and owners are at odds over the idea, you have to be blind to see how the game is evolving now and the need for this change.

Every professional sports league has some form of this. The need for a hard cap, a reasonable floor and some form of revenue sharing is a must for all teams in MLB to thrive. This can’t become the giant 10 and it’s 20 minions. There’s several reasons that baseball is struggling and one of those reasons is the lack of competition between the haves and have nots.

That issue should never be on the backs of the players. What is needed is a revenue cap. No team can make more than $500 million. All revenues above that is paid into a central fund and distributed to the teams below the $500 million threshold.

It’s just not on the backs of the players. This has to do with the long term viability of the game, which should be of concern to everyone. The players are always going to make good money in the game today. The 26th guy on the bench is guaranteed a minimum of 3 quarters of a million dollars a year, plus whatever perks come along with the roster spot. Plus they are around the game which offers many employment opportunities to those who want them.

The idea of as many as one half to two thirds of all baseball teams not being competitive has to be of concern to the game of baseball in general. The lack of fan interest in those non competitive teams also has to be of concern.

How ever they choose to address the disparity in the game between the large market and small market teams will be decided soon enough but trying to cap income isn’t the way to go IMO. Teams/owners should be able to make whatever the market allows. Putting limits on what they can spend and sharing revenues so that everyone is on the same playing field is in the best interest of baseball.

The owners aren’t going to be happy opening up their books so revenues can be honestly discussed. I don’t know how this is going to shake out but the status quo is failing the game and something has to change. The players and owners have a golden goose with everyone making a lot of money. Why destroy it when others have shown them how to make lots of money and thrive at the same time.

I would say that between the 4 major sports (MLB, NFL, NBA and NHL) baseball is in the worse shape and the most uncertainty.

[Red7]

You realize they have been saying all these same things since 1900. The Yankees have won over twice as many championships as their next closest rival. The Pirates, with a few exceptions, have always been bottom dwellers, as have the White Sox. The Browns and the old Washington Senators (now the Twins) were annual bottom feeders. The Phillies didn’t play in their first World Series until 1950 and didn’t win one until 1980. The last time the Indians won was 1948 and the Cubs have won ONE in 117 years. 117!!! Point is, despite all the gloomy forecasts over the last 125 years, baseball revenues have never been higher and it can be argued now that it has more competitive balance now than ever before thanks to the expanded playoffs.

Btw, the NHL has had a cap for 20 years. It’s been nearly 60 years since the Maple Leafs even PLAYED in a Final much less won one. The Sabres have been as hapless as they come. Phoenix/Utah have been a disaster.