Rebuild: Where are we right now-How long will it take based on assumptions

[Bully4you]

We have to give Chaim Bloom the benefit of the doubt.
Farm system is pretty average right now.
I think we have one tier 1 guy in JJ
We have one tier 2 guy in Doyle.
Let's assume payroll is maintained between $140M-$160M.
How long of a rebuild do you anticipate?
I mean, when do you see multiple years of divisional championships coming?

I have to be honest, it seems like it could take at least 4-5 years to rebuild this ship.
Wondering what you guys think.

So, assume the following:

1. M Winn ups his WAR to 5.5
2. Management is willing to have a payroll at around $160M
3. JJ and Doyle are for real and become 4 WAR players or better.
4. We get lucky with a couple of other current young players such as Walker, Gorman, Burleson or Scott.
5. Bernal is the everyday catcher by 2026.
6. Libbey, Mathews, McGreevy are all starters in the rotation.

[ForumPolice]

They won't even truly begin their rebuild until after the guaranteed lockout coming next year.

[RunSup]

Competitive in 2027 after the lockout. Really 2028.

Multiple pitching prospects should be back from Tommy John surgery. With additional prospects maturing, the team should have critical mass of SP to compete.

I don't think they do much in free agency. Wait and see if Bloom can clear the glut if DH and what comes back for the roster. Also see if he convinces NTCs to go

[swatski]

Unless owner changes with regard to payroll, the 12th of never.

[Bully4you]

They won't even truly begin their rebuild until after the guaranteed lockout coming next year.

So, what time frame are you talking?
Maybe 2031?

[ForumPolice]

They won't even truly begin their rebuild until after the guaranteed lockout coming next year.

So, what time frame are you talking?
Maybe 2031?

Not sure how good Bloom is and what kind of latitude he'll be given by DeWitt. I just don't think there's any way they're looking to sign any kind of hefty or long-term contracts with anybody until they know what the new CBA looks like. And far be it for me to defend ownership but I can't even say that I blame them. Most likely best to start with a clean slate rather than limping into a new salary paradigm with bloated contracts on the books

[woofy25]

They won't even truly begin their rebuild until after the guaranteed lockout coming next year.

I keep saying this as well. If they’re willing to spend $160M on payroll, then they will have a ton of money to spend in 2027

[45s]

Too many unknowns…

How much power will bloom really have?

How aggressive is ownership willing to be in a rebuild?

Is the club really going to be for sale…?

If the answers are

Total

Very

No

Perhaps as little as three years…..if those are not the answers ….it’s open ended

[rockondlouie]

I've been saying now that the inept POBO is gone at seasons end and we've got a bright POBO who can both walk (build the farm system) & chew gum (build a competitive ML roster) at the same time.

My hope is BDWJr gives Bloom the payroll he needs to add pieces that may be many years away from coming from within.

Doing this IS NOT going back to the "old" way!

Bloom has spent two years upgrading the minor league system, it's (hopefully) now up to speed and running smoothly.

R. Cerfolio by all counts is also a massive upgrade, he can oversee things below and make sure our prospects are getting everything they need to reach their potential (something lacking under Mo).

If Bloom can pull off a great trade (starting pitcher) or two (offensive OF'er) this winter and BDWJr gives him some money to spend WISELY (unlike Mo) to fill in the gaps, then we could see the Cardinals back on the right track much sooner than later.

JMO

[Absolut]

Rebuild starts February 30.

[45s]

Rebuild starts February 30.

I was thinking April 1

[Absolut]

Rebuild starts February 30.

I was thinking April 1

Except April 1 exists…

[kyace]

The NL central use to have 3 tiers concerning payroll with Chicago and St Louis at the top with Milwaukee and Cincy in the middle and Pittsburgh at the bottom. St. Louis has moved down a level and likely will stay there. The best hope is we can mimic Milwaukee.

[45s]

Rebuild starts February 30.

I was thinking April 1

Except April 1 exists…

Cards fans may become Who fans

“Won’t get fooled again”

[Cardinals4Life]

We have to give Chaim Bloom the benefit of the doubt.
Farm system is pretty average right now.
I think we have one tier 1 guy in JJ
We have one tier 2 guy in Doyle.
Let's assume payroll is maintained between $140M-$160M.
How long of a rebuild do you anticipate?
I mean, when do you see multiple years of divisional championships coming?

I have to be honest, it seems like it could take at least 4-5 years to rebuild this ship.
Wondering what you guys think.

So, assume the following:

1. M Winn ups his WAR to 5.5
2. Management is willing to have a payroll at around $160M
3. JJ and Doyle are for real and become 4 WAR players or better.
4. We get lucky with a couple of other current young players such as Walker, Gorman, Burleson or Scott.
5. Bernal is the everyday catcher by 2026.
6. Libbey, Mathews, McGreevy are all starters in the rotation.

If this is all payroll will be, then the Cardinals will NEVER get back to the level we need to be at.

No one is suggesting a $300M roster, but it is 2025. You are going to have to spend some money in places where we have glaring holes (#1 and #2 SPs and a 1 or 2 MOTO bats). We aren't going to develop an ENTIRE team of cheap, homegrown assets. That won't happen.

Right now we have a team full of complimentary pieces. Donny is a nice utility guy that provides versatility. Winn is a solid defensive SS and an okay bat that you can carry if you have a team of producers. He isn't providing what is needed to carry a team and he simply won't. Burleson is a nice guy to have hititng 6th or 7th. Probably same for Herrera.

Walker, Scott, and Gorman still have to prove they belong.

Conteras is as close to a MOTO bat we have, and he isn't an elite one. (If a team needs 3 MOTO bats, he would be #3 in that group.)

Rotation-wise, Gray is a strong #3, with Liberatore and McGreey making a solid 4 and 5. Clearly lacking the top 2.

Needs:
2 MOTO bats - no, I don't foresee anyone in our system becoming this.
2 TOTR starters - maybe Doyle can fill one of these? Maybe.

[Red Bird Classic]

We have to give Chaim Bloom the benefit of the doubt.
Farm system is pretty average right now.
I think we have one tier 1 guy in JJ
We have one tier 2 guy in Doyle.
Let's assume payroll is maintained between $140M-$160M.
How long of a rebuild do you anticipate?
I mean, when do you see multiple years of divisional championships coming?

I have to be honest, it seems like it could take at least 4-5 years to rebuild this ship.
Wondering what you guys think.

So, assume the following:

1. M Winn ups his WAR to 5.5
2. Management is willing to have a payroll at around $160M
3. JJ and Doyle are for real and become 4 WAR players or better.
4. We get lucky with a couple of other current young players such as Walker, Gorman, Burleson or Scott.
5. Bernal is the everyday catcher by 2026.
6. Libbey, Mathews, McGreevy are all starters in the rotation.

I'm reading your OP and thinking "Good idea! Let's try to estimate best/worst case scenarios " but in the very first paragraph you set the goal wrong.

The question should be when do you see a championship caliber team coming?

The team and the fans should focus like a laser on winning the WS. Anything else is just setting up to be losers.