Actual full Keith Law take on Hels trade

[Konstantinov]

https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/652635 ... ed_article

The Mets acquired one of the best relievers available in trade this month and didn’t give up a single one of the top 10 prospects in their system. Helsley led the National League in saves last year with 49, which doesn’t matter at all, but I put it in there to see who’s paying attention. He’s a slider/four-seam guy who gets extremely high whiff rates on the breaking ball, over 50 percent last year and at 45.6 percent this year, throwing both pitches for strikes. He’s been a little worse this year than he was the previous three, partly due to just some typical randomness, but also because his fastball is a little straighter, although it’s still 99-101.

Helsley is a free agent after the season, so the Mets get two months of his production plus, they hope, some work in October. The Mets’ bullpen took a hit with the injury to Max Kranick, although even before that they didn’t have anyone as effective as Helsley in the bullpen other than closer Edwin Díaz, so the deal is a clear upgrade for their relief corps.

I don’t like this for the St. Louis Cardinals, to put it mildly. Yes, Helsley’s a rental, so it won’t be hard for them to end up “winning” the deal in terms of value returned — if any of these guys gets to the majors, which is not a guarantee, they’ll probably come out ahead by WAR or your metric of choice. Helsley was one of the best relievers on the market, though, and this can’t have been the best possible return.

Infielder Jesus Baez is the most talented of the three prospects the Cardinals received, easily top five in the Mets’ system just on raw tools, but he’s not a very good baseball player. His approach at the plate is just bad, he doesn’t play hard on either side of the ball, and he showed up out of shape this season. He has great bat speed and projects to plus power, although he gets ready so late at the plate, I’m surprised he can get to better velocity. He’(poop) .244/.334/.406 this year in High A as a 20-year-old after spending the first week in Low A, with just a 16.7 percent strikeout rate.

Right-hander Nate Dohm was popular with model-heavy teams in the 2024 draft, as he gets huge extension in his delivery and his fastball has good ‘shape’ along with its 92-95 mph velocity. His slider was plus in college but has played a little below that in pro ball, still with sharp downward break to it but not missing bats as much as I expected. He’s been healthy this year after missing half of his draft spring with an elbow injury, throwing more innings in 2025 (62 2/3) than he did in any calendar year as a college player. He might be a starter, more likely a long reliever.

Right-hander Frank Elissalt was the Mets’ 19th-round pick last year out of Nova Southeastern, and the 23-year-old has had a solid pro debut against younger hitters in Low A, with two relief appearances so far in High A. He sits 94-95 with an average or slightly better slider, with a starter’s delivery, lacking much of a weapon for lefties and perhaps not having the command and control to go through an order more than once. He’s got a chance to get to the big leagues, which is an incredible possibility for a college senior signed that late in the draft.

[RunSup]

Thanks for posting.

So Law thinks the Cardinals could have a gotten better return. He didn't curse in the published article. I don't follow anybody on Twitter / X.

We're never going to know what other teams were offering unless reporters go ask teams directly and those front offices are forth coming. How much better?

The "out of shape" and "not a good baseball player" comments ought to be followed up on. Dude was the Met's 6th best prospect. BA and MLB pipeline reports like him. So Laws comments shake that up.

Baez was coming off knee surgery. Not sure if that plays into out of shape. But I guess now he'll be tagged with a "not caring" / "not a good ball player" label.

Will just have to see. The Cardinals have scouts too.

[jcgmoi]

Another opinion:

This is a talented player who has performed like a future average everyday player on the surface, but who has some issues (defensive fit, strike zone judgment) that force one to round him down into a second division or bat-first utility FV tier.

Longenhagen rated him the Mets' 15th prospect.

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/new-york-me ... prospects/

[Ronnie Dobbs]

Thanks for posting.

So Law thinks the Cardinals could have a gotten better return. He didn't curse in the published article. I don't follow anybody on Twitter / X.

We're never going to know what other teams were offering unless reporters go ask teams directly and those front offices are forth coming. How much better?

The "out of shape" and "not a good baseball player" comments ought to be followed up on. Dude was the Met's 6th best prospect. BA and MLB pipeline reports like him. So Laws comments shake that up.

Baez was coming off knee surgery. Not sure if that plays into out of shape. But I guess now he'll be tagged with a "not caring" / "not a good ball player" label.

Will just have to see. The Cardinals have scouts too.

This was my point in another thread.

The return was equivilent to what other teams were getting for high level relievers. Law might not like the players the Cardinals got, and that is fine. I like Law. He puts out good stuff. But a lot of other people do like this move. And Chaim Bloom and his team that he put together like these players. I'm sure this wasn't the only deal they had on the table. So I'm going with them on this. Is it a sure thing? No, but you were never getting a sure thing for Helsley.

[3dender]

What's clear is that Mo is targeting lower-minors players in order to avoid adding more guys to the 40-man... probably the 3rd goal behind all these trades (after 1) clear salary and 2) get good prospects) is to leave Bloom with as blank a slate as possible.

There are very few guys in A-ball who will be top 10 prospects for any club, and the Cards happened to get one of them who has some pretty interesting tools.

[DickyBennett]

What's clear is that Mo is targeting lower-minors players in order to avoid adding more guys to the 40-man... probably the 3rd goal behind all these trades (after 1) clear salary and 2) get good prospects) is to leave Bloom with as blank a slate as possible.

There are very few guys in A-ball who will be top 10 prospects for any club, and the Cards happened to get one of them who has some pretty interesting tools.

Blaze Jordan has to be protected on the 40 so there goes that theory

[Alex Reyes Cy Young]

The trades were smart. I like what they are doing.

[3dender]

What's clear is that Mo is targeting lower-minors players in order to avoid adding more guys to the 40-man... probably the 3rd goal behind all these trades (after 1) clear salary and 2) get good prospects) is to leave Bloom with as blank a slate as possible.

There are very few guys in A-ball who will be top 10 prospects for any club, and the Cards happened to get one of them who has some pretty interesting tools.

Blaze Jordan has to be protected on the 40 so there goes that theory

Jordan will very likely replace Baker on the 40, and Jordan was a Bloom draft pick who he almost certainly advocated to acquire in this deal, so imo it's an exception that proves the rule.

[Southern Illinois]

I think what is obvious from this move is the return are all A league ball players with a lot to like in upside that are no where near needing a 40 man space. The 40 man is tight with several players who will soon need to either be protected on the 40 or be lost without compensation. Looks like they are opening a runway (sorry) for Bloom to become a trader Joe this winter to reshape the 40 man, the current major league team, and most probably make more additions to the minor league system. The redundancy of the current team and the tight 40 man make it a necessity.

[Ozziesfan41]

What is his take on the matz trade?

[Ronnie Dobbs]

I think what is obvious from this move is the return are all A league ball players with a lot to like in upside that are no where near needing a 40 man space. The 40 man is tight with several players who will soon need to either be protected on the 40 or be lost without compensation. Looks like they are opening a runway (sorry) for Bloom to become a trader Joe this winter to reshape the 40 man, the current major league team, and most probably make more additions to the minor league system. The redundancy of the current team and the tight 40 man make it a necessity.

I think that's a pretty good take and probably a good thing if true. I haven't check in awhile, but I am willing to bet there there is a lot on our 40 man that really isn't worth much. If Bloom wants to do a bit of a makeover, it's probably overdue.

[Clubmaker2]

So cards in two different trades got fat guys lining up behind the already long DH line? Not like this team needs rh outfielder.....

[Clubmaker2]

I think what is obvious from this move is the return are all A league ball players with a lot to like in upside that are no where near needing a 40 man space. The 40 man is tight with several players who will soon need to either be protected on the 40 or be lost without compensation. Looks like they are opening a runway (sorry) for Bloom to become a trader Joe this winter to reshape the 40 man, the current major league team, and most probably make more additions to the minor league system. The redundancy of the current team and the tight 40 man make it a necessity.

yet Goold told 101 espn cards said it will be a quiet off season.....