mattmitchl44 wrote: ↑22 Jul 2025 12:21 pmHaving to give impactful FAs 5, 6, 7 year deals in particular when you can expect them to be declining at the back end of those deals is why a team like the Cardinals can't just reload by spending money to compete every year.
Exactly. Everyone wants the Cardinals to spend money to acquire big name players, but never think about the part at the end where they get old. Look at how much (bleep) Arenado get a now. Well, guess what? If you want to sign a big name free agent or trade for a superstar with either a big contract or extend him when he gets here, you're going to have to deal with that. If you get lucky you sign a player and you only get one real dramatic year of decline like we had with Goldschmidt and people still wanted to run him out of town.
And there's very few teams in baseball who can just pile contracts upon contracts and not let it kill them. Hence the teams rebuilding. Had we done a better job drafting and developing good, young players, maybe we could have surrounded Arenado and Goldschmidt with better players or starting pitching that wasn't headlined by Miles Mikolas or a 40 year old Adam Wainwright. Maybe we're not out making desperate trades for JA Happ or Jon Lester to save our season.
Yes, any time a team like the Cardinals invests in an Arenado, Goldschmidt, etc. on a long, expensive, multi-year deal, they had better be doing so with the intention of being fully in "win now" mode over the first 1/2 of those contracts.
If you don't think you have the rest of the roster in place to "win now", spending big on guys like Arenado, Goldschmidt, etc. is really just wasting resources.
LOL...Who's moving the goal posts? I didn't go back a decade to cherry pick data. You can argue all day long and it won't matter. The higher spending teams win more often. It's a simple fact, now argue with that.
You said - "Just look at history."
That's exactly what I did. I showed that several of the current "powerhouse" teams went through a deep rebuild a decade ago or less.
You cherry picked a few years where big spending teams cut some payroll because they were losing, not because they were "rebuilding". There's a big difference. Even that doesn't matter because you look over the history of the big spenders since free agency became a thing and it's clear who wins and why they win. Bang your drum all day but it won't change the facts.
Houston, Atlanta, Philadelphia, etc. became some of the current "powerhouse" teams because they spent money AFTER they made sure they had enough young cost controlled talent first. They aren't winning JUST because they spend money. They win because they are spending money smartly AFTER they have a core of young talent to add to.
It's never about just spending money, it is about spending your money well.
You're partially right and I didn't say spending alone was the answer. But spending DIRECTLY CORRELATES to WINNING. You can't cherry pick a stretch and ignore the payroll. Developing talent through the draft and minors is a part of it, but all teams do this. So what separates them? Payroll and the talent it provides.
No one in this thread ever said that spending more doesn't give you an advantage when it comes to winning. Of course it does.
But the Cardinals are never going to regularly spend more than being a mid-market club (10th, 11th in MLB payroll). They never have.
So they have to make assembling the necessary core of young players their priority through a deep rebuild (like what the Braves, Astros, etc. went through) before smartly spending their, maybe, $170, $180, etc. million to obtain a few expensive veterans to get them over the top.
The Cardinals need to model themselves like the "overachievers" (Cleveland, Tampa Bay, Baltimore, Milwaukee, Seattle) and then do it BETTER by having somewhat more money to spend on top of that.
Okay, at this point we're just going around and around. Tell me what championships Tampa, Baltimore, Milwaukee, Seattle and Cleveland have won. I rest my case.
The Cardinals need to model themselves like the "overachievers" (Cleveland, Tampa Bay, Baltimore, Milwaukee, Seattle) and then do it BETTER by having somewhat more money to spend on top of that.
Doing it BETTER is fine as long as it isn't tanking on purpose which is what they're doing by not raising their talent level on the field. These young players you jizz your pants over may or man not work out. Then what? Another tank job? More draft picks to develop? New shiny toys in the minor leagues to show off? Get real. There is no excuse fot not trying to win. If you say there is then we're at an impasse and no further discussion is necessary.
The Cardinals simply aren't going to be able to compete without having a foundation of young, good, cost controlled players. So, yes, they have to keep working that part of the problem first before they worry about spending a lot on future FAs to plug the holes.
Dude, you're like a broken record. Of course they want young cost controlled talent. There isn't a team in baseball that doesn't covet that and no team lives solely on free agents. So stop with the mantra. Those of us in the know realize that it doesn't have to be one or the other. It does need to be both but there's no reason to not try to win every frigging year. Why watch if they're not trying to win it all?
Yes it ultimately will likely take both to ever win another WS - a critical mass of young cost controlled talent and a few select high cost FAs that address specific needs that have not been able to be addressed by the farm system.
But until you have that critical mass of young talent you don't know what holes you actually have to fill. Locking yourself in to several high cost FAs now that you will have to give long term contacts to limits your flexibility in another 2 or 3 years, and they may not address the actual holes you have when you are ready to compete again.
Having to give impactful FAs 5, 6, 7 year deals in particular when you can expect them to be declining at the back end of those deals is why a team like the Cardinals can't just reload by spending money to compete every year.
You don't seem to understand though. To get those high draft picks you have to lose, for years. Then you have to pray they develop. Who wants to watch a mediocre to poor team for 5 years or more before the ownership steps up. Not only that, but there is absolutely no guarantee that it'll ever amount to a winner. While teams like the Dodgers, Mets, Yankees, Phils reload, Pittsburgh, Cincy, Miami, etc "rebuild". Especially when the Cards have the where with all to field a $200 million dollar payroll.
