Which direction?

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AZ_Cardsfan
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Which direction?

Post by AZ_Cardsfan »

We are staring the trade deadline in the eyes now. And STL needs to make a decision. Here is how I would frame it:

0-20% chance of making playoffs and advancing? If that is where you see them then go all in on rebuild.

20-70% making playoffs and MAYBE win a series? Stand pat.

70-100% chance playoffs and a serious contender? Go all in adding pitching and a bat.

I rank them at the 0-20%. Low end of. And I hope they elect to deal for 2027 as a goal to return to a real contender.
11WSChamps
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Re: Which direction?

Post by 11WSChamps »

They weren't ever making the playoffs this season.

Problem is besides Helsley and Donovan what are you going to trade that's a proven commodity anybody would give any kind of return for?
Cusecards
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Re: Which direction?

Post by Cusecards »

AZ_Cardsfan wrote: 20 Jul 2025 18:02 pm We are staring the trade deadline in the eyes now. And STL needs to make a decision. Here is how I would frame it:

0-20% chance of making playoffs and advancing? If that is where you see them then go all in on rebuild.

20-70% making playoffs and MAYBE win a series? Stand pat.

70-100% chance playoffs and a serious contender? Go all in adding pitching and a bat.

I rank them at the 0-20%. Low end of. And I hope they elect to deal for 2027 as a goal to return to a real contender.
Yes
And you start by looking to move any FA’s that you have no intention of resigning.
Then I would look to move Arenado and/or Nootbaar.
Stlcardsblues
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Re: Which direction?

Post by Stlcardsblues »

11WSChamps wrote: 20 Jul 2025 18:11 pm They weren't ever making the playoffs this season.

Problem is besides Helsley and Donovan what are you going to trade that's a proven commodity anybody would give any kind of return for?
Trade Helsley, Maton and Matz. Move Fedde to the pen as a long reliever or release him as he has tanked all trade value.
11WSChamps
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Re: Which direction?

Post by 11WSChamps »

Stlcardsblues wrote: 20 Jul 2025 18:14 pm
11WSChamps wrote: 20 Jul 2025 18:11 pm They weren't ever making the playoffs this season.

Problem is besides Helsley and Donovan what are you going to trade that's a proven commodity anybody would give any kind of return for?
Trade Helsley, Maton and Matz. Move Fedde to the pen as a long reliever or release him as he has tanked all trade value.
My guess is Matz and Maton will be moved.
Jobu's Rum
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Re: Which direction?

Post by Jobu's Rum »

Trade Matz, Helsley, Noot, Fedde, Maton

Maybe convince Nado, Willy and Sonny to waive those NTCs
ZouMiz2424
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Re: Which direction?

Post by ZouMiz2424 »

It’s an absolute failure if Helsley, Gray, Nado, Noot and Donovan are on the team come August 1st. Contreras too if they can find a buyer.

The team needs to build for 2027.
Carp4Cy
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Re: Which direction?

Post by Carp4Cy »

AZ_Cardsfan wrote: 20 Jul 2025 18:02 pm We are staring the trade deadline in the eyes now. And STL needs to make a decision. Here is how I would frame it:

0-20% chance of making playoffs and advancing? If that is where you see them then go all in on rebuild.

20-70% making playoffs and MAYBE win a series? Stand pat.

70-100% chance playoffs and a serious contender? Go all in adding pitching and a bat.

I rank them at the 0-20%. Low end of. And I hope they elect to deal for 2027 as a goal to return to a real contender.
We are already in year 3 of a rebuild. You can't just keep extending your 2 year plan or you become the Pirates. Always 2 years away from starting a 2 year plan. We punted on 23 and 24, and probably will on 25. You Cannot punt on 26. The offseason needs to begin now with finding who is available than can fill holes in 26 And beyond.
AZ_Cardsfan
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Re: Which direction?

Post by AZ_Cardsfan »

Carp4Cy wrote: 20 Jul 2025 18:22 pm
AZ_Cardsfan wrote: 20 Jul 2025 18:02 pm We are staring the trade deadline in the eyes now. And STL needs to make a decision. Here is how I would frame it:

0-20% chance of making playoffs and advancing? If that is where you see them then go all in on rebuild.

20-70% making playoffs and MAYBE win a series? Stand pat.

70-100% chance playoffs and a serious contender? Go all in adding pitching and a bat.

I rank them at the 0-20%. Low end of. And I hope they elect to deal for 2027 as a goal to return to a real contender.
We are already in year 3 of a rebuild. You can't just keep extending your 2 year plan or you become the Pirates. Always 2 years away from starting a 2 year plan. We punted on 23 and 24, and probably will on 25. You Cannot punt on 26. The offseason needs to begin now with finding who is available than can fill holes in 26 And beyond.
This is year one in any rebuild. Not sure where you get the idea they started this 3 years ago.
AZ_Cardsfan
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Re: Which direction?

Post by AZ_Cardsfan »

11WSChamps wrote: 20 Jul 2025 18:11 pm They weren't ever making the playoffs this season.

Problem is besides Helsley and Donovan what are you going to trade that's a proven commodity anybody would give any kind of return for?
Get what you can. Sometimes churn is itself a help. Helsley, Donovan, Matz, and Maton all bring back prospects of varying quality. Donovan should return a very high end pair of them and Helsley another one. All 3 would likely slot into the STL top10-15. The others return more crapshoots but ya never know.
Carp4Cy
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Re: Which direction?

Post by Carp4Cy »

ZouMiz2424 wrote: 20 Jul 2025 18:22 pm It’s an absolute failure if Helsley, Gray, Nado, Noot and Donovan are on the team come August 1st. Contreras too if they can find a buyer.

The team needs to build for 2027.
What are we going to have worth building around in 27 that we won't have in 26?

JJW will be here in 26, maybe late this year. Winn will still be cheap in 26, Libby as well. McGreevey is ready now. Doyle could very well arrive sometime in 26. Matthews and Roby have spent as much time in the minors as is realistically going to help them - though they might never improve beyond. At some point they have to get healthy and put up or shut up. Either way they aren't worth making the MLB team wait around another year before making investments. Beyond them - where are the Ethan Holliday level prospects worth waiting for that can't be ready in 26 but will suddenly become a gamechanger in 27?

We've draft high, 2 years in a row. Those 2 are on the cusp of producing but there's a dropoff after them, and we can't draft that high again for a while. The minors can produce enough to suppliment over time, but I don't see a sudden surge of top talent that will arrive in 2027??? And we aren't getting 70 grade prospects for any of our pending FAs either.
An Old Friend
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Re: Which direction?

Post by An Old Friend »

AZ_Cardsfan wrote: 20 Jul 2025 18:26 pm
Carp4Cy wrote: 20 Jul 2025 18:22 pm
AZ_Cardsfan wrote: 20 Jul 2025 18:02 pm We are staring the trade deadline in the eyes now. And STL needs to make a decision. Here is how I would frame it:

0-20% chance of making playoffs and advancing? If that is where you see them then go all in on rebuild.

20-70% making playoffs and MAYBE win a series? Stand pat.

70-100% chance playoffs and a serious contender? Go all in adding pitching and a bat.

I rank them at the 0-20%. Low end of. And I hope they elect to deal for 2027 as a goal to return to a real contender.
We are already in year 3 of a rebuild. You can't just keep extending your 2 year plan or you become the Pirates. Always 2 years away from starting a 2 year plan. We punted on 23 and 24, and probably will on 25. You Cannot punt on 26. The offseason needs to begin now with finding who is available than can fill holes in 26 And beyond.
This is year one in any rebuild. Not sure where you get the idea they started this 3 years ago.
Yeah no idea what he’s talking about.
Ronnie Dobbs
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Re: Which direction?

Post by Ronnie Dobbs »

They need to sell anyone who they can who will get something back to help them in the future. As much as it sucks, this last month is probably better for the team long term than if they were 10 games above.500, fighting for a WC spot, and trying to acquire a reliever and a Tommy Pham-like RH bat to keep us "competitive."

Of course there's young guys under control who aren't going anywhere, but most players I'd say are fair game. I'd say probably Helsley, Maton, Matz, and maybe Romero might have some value. Maybe there's a team that thinks that they could get something out of Fedde or just need another arm to keep their rotation together until the playoffs, but can't make a move for a better starter. Doubt he'd fetch much, but whatever. I think it's time to move on from Nootbaar if the return is right. Maybe a team in need of a 3B trades for Arenado, if he's willing to waive his NTC, but probably not getting much other than salary relief. Same for Gray, but he might get you something.

That's just off the top of my head, but I think it's definitely sell time.
JohnTudor1985
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Re: Which direction?

Post by JohnTudor1985 »

I'm pretty sure the Cards are now in sell mode. The big question is what they can expect in return. What did we get for Flaherty, Monty, etc.?

For two months of RH or Matz, you're not going to get back a quality 2026/27 starter. I would prefer they bundle several of these players and get quality in return. Trading them individually for AA lottery picks will probably not add much to our 2027 roster. Either way, they need to be aggressive and get something of value back.
Carp4Cy
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Re: Which direction?

Post by Carp4Cy »

AZ_Cardsfan wrote: 20 Jul 2025 18:26 pm
Carp4Cy wrote: 20 Jul 2025 18:22 pm
AZ_Cardsfan wrote: 20 Jul 2025 18:02 pm We are staring the trade deadline in the eyes now. And STL needs to make a decision. Here is how I would frame it:

0-20% chance of making playoffs and advancing? If that is where you see them then go all in on rebuild.

20-70% making playoffs and MAYBE win a series? Stand pat.

70-100% chance playoffs and a serious contender? Go all in adding pitching and a bat.

I rank them at the 0-20%. Low end of. And I hope they elect to deal for 2027 as a goal to return to a real contender.
We are already in year 3 of a rebuild. You can't just keep extending your 2 year plan or you become the Pirates. Always 2 years away from starting a 2 year plan. We punted on 23 and 24, and probably will on 25. You Cannot punt on 26. The offseason needs to begin now with finding who is available than can fill holes in 26 And beyond.
This is year one in any rebuild. Not sure where you get the idea they started this 3 years ago.
Year 1 - We sold in 2023, and got prospects.
year 2 - 2024 - we drafted high, didn't spend much, hired Bloom, announced the end of Mo's tenure. Offseason we let Goldy, Lynn and that other guy walk
year 3 2025 - we drafted high again, saw progress in the high minors, sorted out who we have in the majors, let Walker and Gorman (and Pallante and the catchers) play when they were healthy. Trade deadline or offseason we will be done with Mikolas, Matz, Fedde, Helsleys - lots and lots of $ freed up and dry powder.
year 4 2026 - put up or shut up and lose the fan base, causing permanent damage to their ability to support payroll.
JuanAgosto
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Re: Which direction?

Post by JuanAgosto »

Trade Helsley, Matz, Maton or Romero, and Nootbaar at the deadline.

Attempt to convince Gray, Contreras, Mikolas, and Arenado to waive their NTCs. (The last 2 won't fetch much but will open playing spots).

Deal Gorman, Walker, or Burleson over the winter.

See what offers are out there for Donovan between now and Opening Day 2026.

Wetherholt, Church, Baez, and Matthews should see time in August/September.
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