Projecting Dylan Holloway’s St. Louis Blues Contract Extension

[TBone]

Projecting Dylan Holloway’s St. Louis Blues Contract Extension

July 18, 2025
by Josh Berg

- clip -

Holloway’s Possible Long-Term Contract

First, the Blues could offer Holloway a long-term deal. At 23 years old, an eight-year extension, likely in the $8 – $9 million per season range, would take him through his prime years and his arbitration rights years. Both Thomas and Kyrou have a cap hit of $8.125 million per season, and as the cap increases, those contracts will continue to look like bargain deals, while other Blues players are signed for more. It is not out of the realm of possibility that Oilers’ former first-round pick could exceed the salaries of both Thomas and Kyrou.

The Blues will have a decent sample size for comparison on signing a winger like Holloway to his next deal.

Notable Forward Contracts Signed Since 2024

• Player Contract Length AAV Team Year Signed
  Jake Guentzel 7 Years $9 milion Tampa Bay Lightning 2024
  Nikolaj Ehlers 6 years $8.5 million Carolina Hurricanes 2025
  Lucas Raymond 8 years $8.075 million Detroit Red Wings 2024
  Sam Bennett 8 years $8 million Florida Panthers 2025
  Matthew Knies 7 years $7.75 million Toronto Maple Leafs 2025
  J.J. Peterka 5 years $7.7 million Utah Mammoth 2025
  Brock Boeser 7 years $7.25 million Vancouver Canucks 2025

The closest comparison here would be Maple Leafs forward Matthew Knies. Knies, 22, coming off a breakout 58-point in 76 games campaign, just signed a seven-year deal worth $7.75 million per season, making him an unrestricted free agent when his contract expires. It has been rumored that Knies took a lower salary to stay in Toronto and would have received a deal worth upwards of $8 million per season had he become a free agent.

https://thehockeywriters.com/blues-holl ... extension/

[Frank Underwood]

I’d say a bunch of those comps are irrelevant…..but Knies and Gabe Vilardi, who just signed for $7.5 mil/yr, are two very good comps. It looks like Hockey Writers picked a number and then worked backwards to throw out comps that supported it. I’m guessing the Blues wait to make sure Holloway’s healthy and then will get something done.

[danno]

His production this year will determine what the $$ looks like in his next contract. How will he recover from his injury? Will there be any lingering effects? I hope not. If he puts up 50-60 points, I'd expect a new contract somewhere around 6.5 per. If he hits 60-70, I think it will be 7.5 per. If he wants 8.5 or more, he's gonna need more than 70 points this coming season. I think he can do it. From what I saw last year, this kid's a keeper. Git'rr done Army & the schnoz

[Ace07]

Any chance we bring Bolduc back eventually?

[TruBlueFan_1970]

8 x $7.5 would seem very reasonable given the Knies and Stankoven deals. I believe this is the last season that an 8 year extension can be signed. Although since the new CBA kicks in next season, when the contract would start, it may have a 7 year max.

[mdkieffer]

Any chance we bring Bolduc back eventually?

I did not understand that trade at all. Think the Blues will resent trading him away.

[STL fan in MN]

Any chance we bring Bolduc back eventually?

Like ever before his career is over? Idk, maybe 2% chance? Like soon? 0% chance.

[bluetunehead]

Any chance we bring Bolduc back eventually?

Probably none? He grew up an hour outside of Montreal. He’s probably set there for years to come.

[rezero]

Any chance we bring Bolduc back eventually?

Like people said when Perron left, “there is almost no chance he comes back”.

As fas as Holloway, what is the rush to sign him to a long term contract? He is not an UFA until 2029.

[seattleblue]

Any chance we bring Bolduc back eventually?

Like people said when Perron left, “there is almost no chance he comes back”.

As fas as Holloway, what is the rush to sign him to a long term contract? He is not an UFA until 2029.

With 32 teams and parity and increasing power shifting to the players (with shorter contract lengths and earlier free agency than back in the day) it is increasingly difficult to hold a talented team together. So philosophically we've seen a shift where teams recognize "this is one of my core pieces at the right age to be locked up during his prime" and so guys are getting to that bigger contract sooner after their ELC. This is one of the things you've got to give Armstrong credit for during his tenure, he has kept this middle phase down and his bridge deals have been reasonable and thoughtful (Shattenkirk's last deal might be an outlier). My complaint has been how he's handled his veteran UFA deals and given trade protections and mid-late 30s deals to the wrong players.

The timing on Holloway is pretty good. Because he's coming off a strong season cut short by season ending surgery it's normal and reasonable for his season to get underway and if everything looks apace then they work out the extension at some point. I expect it to be announced but it could be any time over the course of the year after he's back and productive. If he continues to be the player we saw last year then we should feel pretty comfortable giving him one of these 7x8 or 7x8+s. Those 7 years will be his prime 7 years if his experience tracks with the general statistical experience with forwards so it's good value. If he'd been healthy (but let's say the Jets also were fully healthy) and played out the season there would be more pressure to ink the extension this summer. But the Blues will get to see him play again before they commit rather than feel pressure to come up with the number this summer.

[Cedar]

I’d say a bunch of those comps are irrelevant…..but Knies and Gabe Vilardi, who just signed for $7.5 mil/yr, are two very good comps. It looks like Hockey Writers picked a number and then worked backwards to throw out comps that supported it. I’m guessing the Blues wait to make sure Holloway’s healthy and then will get something done.

Vilardi just signed for $7.5 x 6, which seems to be another comparable in the same range. If I could sign Holloway to that contract, I would do it right now.

[dhsux]

Yeah I think the Blues will be reading this situation going forward. It is apparent they will wait and see how he play, how he is trending, and how he feels being a long term part of this franchise.

If the signs are good and there's a deal to be made with an early extension and enough time has passed for greater certainty I assume they will make their move to land him.......If he picks up from where he was last year I guess it's going to be up to Dylan on bridge or long term.

[Red7]

Maybe Holloway bets on himself. He’ll only be 26 when he hits UFA. Maybe he gets another offer sheet as an RFA or goes to arbitration. With the cap going up, if he puts up a couple of 35-40 goal seasons he could be looking at 6/60, maybe more. Let’s say he gets 2/10 or 2/12 in arbitration, that’s 8/72 which would beat 8/64.

[roessjd]

I think the offer sheet is off the table. If he gets another offer sheet, it would be first and third for $4,680,076 to $7,020,113, which I think the Blues would match. Or, first, second, and third for $7,020,113 to $9,360,153, which the Blues would ask for an additional pick, the same that Edmonton did last year.

[HighStick]

Holloways gonna have a good season this year. He's gonna get 7x8 and then start playing like Buch soon after.

[Red7]

I think the offer sheet is off the table. If he gets another offer sheet, it would be first and third for $4,680,076 to $7,020,113, which I think the Blues would match. Or, first, second, and third for $7,020,113 to $9,360,153, which the Blues would ask for an additional pick, the same that Edmonton did last year.

Let’s say the Blues would match $4.7-5 per. That’s about what he’d probably get in arbitration or a bridge deal. If he hits 35-40 goals this year, that’s in the ballpark. By waiting for UFA, Holloway couldn’t get the term of 8 years, but he’ll certainly get a higher AAV. I think by the Olympic break, both sides will have to make a decision. If Holloway is lighting things up, he may opt to take a bridge deal of one sort or another, or the Blues have to make him an offer he can’t refuse. I just don’t see either Holloway or Broberg being in a hurry. The odd man out may be Jake Neighbours . Will the Blues be able to extend all 3.