ICCFIM2 wrote: ↑19 Jul 2025 00:29 am
Melville wrote: ↑18 Jul 2025 23:11 pm
Ozziesfan41 wrote: ↑18 Jul 2025 21:15 pm
CorneliusWolfe wrote: ↑18 Jul 2025 20:36 pm
Melville wrote: ↑18 Jul 2025 20:31 pm
rockondlouie wrote: ↑18 Jul 2025 12:16 pm
Cardinals lefty Steven Matz has drawn some trade interest as the July 31 deadline inches closer, reports Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch (video link, bullpen talk beginning around the 4:10 mark).
“There are a handful of teams at least poking around on Matz,” per Goold.
He adds that the Cardinals will also likely be open to offers on righty Phil Maton but
would need a very strong offer to trade closer Ryan Helsley, who could receive a qualifying offer if he’s not moved.
I have been correctly analyzing and explaining since last October that if STL is within 5 games of the division lead at the deadline, Mo would probably prefer to keep Helsley and take the comp pick in the off-season.
And that, of course, would mean offering a QO.
Which would be declined.
Easy.
Obvious.
Correct.
Agree. This is Mo’s last stand. That ego and pride will compel him in the ways you described. For better or worse.
They won’t offer a QO
Sure they will - if he isn't moved.
He's 31.
He won't risk his chance at a multi-year contract by taking the QO.
STL knows that.
Helsley is an interesting case on a QO. With having a down year, what type of contract is he going to get as a FA? 3 years? At what AAV? $12M? $13M? I can't imagine he gets more than 3/$39M. Now, take $21M from the Cards and you are betting you can make another $18M the next 2 years. Probably he should take the $39M, but hard to say. Unfortunately for the players, these situation are like black jack games, they have to play first. We have seen several players over the years that would have been better off taking the QO since they ended up on 1 year deals for less. Helsley could very well be one of them if he does not finish out the year strongly. The Cards should sell though to make the point moot.
This is Helsey's first and last chance for a multi-year high dollar contract.
And MLB contracts are 100% guaranteed.
He is in line for a deal worth over 40M - probably closer to 45.
No player is going to throw away that type of lifetime financial security.
Particularly a relief pitcher.
He would decline the QO - risk of injury next year, risk of declining effectiveness, risk of entering market a year older: all powerful incentives to grab the brass ring now.
STL knows that.
IF not traded this month, STL will offer a QO.
They would highly value the comp pick because their current model requires draft capital.
I have analyzed this perfectly since last October - and everything so far has unfolded precisely as I said it would.
I know Mo better than Mo knows Mo, which makes this very easy.
If within 5 games of a post-season spot and playing well at the deadline, STL will keep Hesley and offer the QO later (barring injury, of course).
If not seeing a competitive opportunity to reach the post season, they will trade him.