new article - spending vs winning

[CCard]

This year we are 19th in payroll. $200M would put us 11th (or 10th if you don't count the useless Angels). That is about where we need to be for this fanbase and franchise to succeed and restore the ticket sales. Be more aggressive, and smart.

I agree with that. We're also in a "reset" year or whatever they wanna call it. Shedding some payroll for that kind of thing is very common. 19th in payroll is a big outlier over the past 25 years.

I do agree that they should get back to around the top 10 in payroll and if 19th in payroll becomes the standard rather than the outlier, then I will agree that not spending enough money is the problem.

"Reset" really only means "We're going to go cheap and not worry about winning." It doesn't really lead to anything but losing. Funny how terminology can be misleading.

[Ronnie Dobbs]

"Reset" really only means "We're going to go cheap and not worry about winning." It doesn't really lead to anything but losing. Funny how terminology can be misleading.

Okay, sure, if that's what ends up happening, but we've seen teams do "resets/rebuilds like the Cardinals are claiming they are doing for years. Even those teams listed as powerhouses in that chart. They reset, shed a ton of payroll, and rebuilt.

[Jatalk]

Not a surprise, but it's clear the Cards don't spend enough. You have to spend smart on FAs (inc. international) and on player development, but the team payroll for this franchise is sad.

Some of teams in upper tier have similar or worse records than middle tier. Pretty obvious.

Screenshot 2025-07-18 at 7.03.54 AM.png

How is it clear?

It’s not. Several teams at Cardinal level above 500 and in playoff hunt

If you don't see the cause and effect relationship in that chart, you don't know how to interpret a point chart.

[Jatalk]

Not a surprise, but it's clear the Cards don't spend enough. You have to spend smart on FAs (inc. international) and on player development, but the team payroll for this franchise is sad.

Some of teams in upper tier have similar or worse records than middle tier. Pretty obvious.

Screenshot 2025-07-18 at 7.03.54 AM.png

How is it clear?

It’s not. Several teams at Cardinal level above 500 and in playoff hunt

If you don't see the cause and effect relationship in that chart, you don't know how to interpret a point chart.

Some teams in upper tier same or worse records than middle tier. Pretty obvious

[ClassicO]

Let's see: for 4 of the last 5 years, a team in the "Powerhouses" won the World Series. And in 2024, the team that is not in the Powerhouses, the Rangers, spent $225M. In three of the five years, the team that lost the WS was a Powerhouse.
But other than that, there's no relationship.

[Red Bird Classic]

Not a surprise, but it's clear the Cards don't spend enough. You have to spend smart on FAs (inc. international) and on player development, but the team payroll for this franchise is sad.

Some of teams in upper tier have similar or worse records than middle tier. Pretty obvious.

Screenshot 2025-07-18 at 7.03.54 AM.png

How is it clear?

It’s not. Several teams at Cardinal level above 500 and in playoff hunt

If you don't see the cause and effect relationship in that chart, you don't know how to interpret a point chart.

Some teams in upper tier same or worse records than middle tier. Pretty obvious

There are always exceptions in any data set. However, if you graphed that data, the line would go up from left to right at about a 45-degree angle. This shows a very strong coloration between spending and winning, exceptions not withstanding.

[BrockFloodMaris]

Not a surprise, but it's clear the Cards don't spend enough. You have to spend smart on FAs (inc. international) and on player development, but the team payroll for this franchise is sad.



Screenshot 2025-07-18 at 7.03.54 AM.png

I'm sure that BDW and Chaim Bloom aspire to be included in the "Overachievers" category in blue on your graph. With teams like Tampa Bay, Baltimore, Milwaukee, Cleveland and Seattle. Yes, I know that BAL and CLE are having off years. If you think that BDW and Bloom are aiming to be in the green "Powerhouses" group, you will be sadly mistaken.

We dont' need to be either. If we win and have the right popular star players here that people want to see, we will draw 3M fans, and if we draw 3M, we can support ~$200M payroll, which is between the overachievers and the powerhouses.

Notice that the Angels have their own category. We need to map our our own category but in the opposite direction. Upper middle payroll used wisely with high winning % and playoff success. We've done exactly that in years past. Bloom needs to get us back there. Its Smart Agressive. That could be name of this category.

Yes, I think that will be the long range plan. Once Bloom creates a talent development machine, BDW will spend to fill the gaps. I can see a $200M payroll. Smart Aggressive. I like it!

[CCard]

"Reset" really only means "We're going to go cheap and not worry about winning." It doesn't really lead to anything but losing. Funny how terminology can be misleading.

Okay, sure, if that's what ends up happening, but we've seen teams do "resets/rebuilds like the Cardinals are claiming they are doing for years. Even those teams listed as powerhouses in that chart. They reset, shed a ton of payroll, and rebuilt.

The big spenders reload every year. They might not win and they might shed a contract here or there but when did you ever hear of them losing for years? The answer is obvious. Just look at history.

[mattmitchl44]

The Cardinals need to get smarter at managing their organization to be like the "overachievers" (Seattle, Milwaukee, Baltimore, Cleveland, Tampa Bay).

If you drew a line from Milwaukee or Seattle to Houston on the OP's plot, the Cardinals should want to be on that line at $170, $180, etc. million per year. That would put them about even with the Phillies and Yankees in terms of winning pct.

[mattmitchl44]

"Reset" really only means "We're going to go cheap and not worry about winning." It doesn't really lead to anything but losing. Funny how terminology can be misleading.

Okay, sure, if that's what ends up happening, but we've seen teams do "resets/rebuilds like the Cardinals are claiming they are doing for years. Even those teams listed as powerhouses in that chart. They reset, shed a ton of payroll, and rebuilt.

Yep - Houston did it from about 2011-2014; Atlanta did it from about 2014-2017; Philadelphia did it for at least 2016-2018; etc.

[Ronnie Dobbs]

The big spenders reload every year. They might not win and they might shed a contract here or there but when did you ever hear of them losing for years? The answer is obvious. Just look at history.

Matt already mentioned it, but look at Houston, Atlanta, and Philly. All did a major rebuild. That's three out of the seven "powerhouse" teams on the graph.

[mattmitchl44]

"Reset" really only means "We're going to go cheap and not worry about winning." It doesn't really lead to anything but losing. Funny how terminology can be misleading.

Okay, sure, if that's what ends up happening, but we've seen teams do "resets/rebuilds like the Cardinals are claiming they are doing for years. Even those teams listed as powerhouses in that chart. They reset, shed a ton of payroll, and rebuilt.

The big spenders reload every year. They might not win and they might shed a contract here or there but when did you ever hear of them losing for years? The answer is obvious. Just look at history.

History:

Atlanta
2015 - Record 67-95; 22nd in MLB payroll
2016 - Record 68-93; 27th in MLB payroll
2017 - Record 70-92; 19th in MLB payroll

Houston
2011 - Record 56-106; 19th in MLB payroll
2012 - Record 55-107; 27th in MLB payroll
2013 - Record 51-111; 30th in MLB payroll
2014 - Record 70-92; 29th in MLB payroll

Philadelphia
2016 - Record 71-91; 25th in MLB payroll
2017 - Record 66-96; 22nd in MLB payroll
2018 - Record 80-82; 24th in MLB payroll