Some notes at the Break

[BrummerStealsHome]

The ASB always comes around the 60% point through the season so it makes a good marker. It's always interesting to me to look at certain metrics.

First, how is the league overall playing out?

First, the MLB batting average is .245, historically on the low side. It would be 10th worse in the modern era (1900+), but is up slightly from last year and the league tends to hit better towards the end of the season. Still, the last decade or so has seen bottom 10% percentile hitting. The average is in the low .260s. The Cardinals are hitting .252, 7 points above the MLB average.

Second, MLB teams are scoring 4.38 runs per game. The Cards are at 4.58, or one more run every 5 games than the average. The lifetime average in MLB is 4.54 rpg, so the present game isn't as far off from the norm. It's a run every 6 games. So baseball teams are scoring runs on fewer hits than the long-term game play average. They aren't walking more. The 2025 BB/game rate is 3.19 against an all-time average of 3.16. That's only an extra walk avery 33 games. The Cards are at 3.14. The modern game still depends more on the home run than the traditional game. The 2025 HR rate is 1.12 HR/game (the Cards are at 1.00). That's 11th highest in history and well above the all-time average of .62. That's an additional HR every other game. The dead ball era skews that. The post-dead ball era HR/game is about .83. That's still an additional HR about every 3 games.

Third, MLB teams strikeout 8.26 times per game (Cards at 7.78). This is the 8th hightest in history, continueing a recent trend. The top 8 years have been the past 8 years. The all time average is 3.99, meaning the 2025 teams are putting the ball into play 4.27 fewer times per game. Ugh. If you want to put more fans in the seats, MLB should find a way to address this, and without a huge increas in walks.

Fourth, the Cards are 51-46, in 3rd place 6.5 games out. Last year at the break they were 50-46, in 2nd place 4.5 games out. About the same as last year. The 2024 played .500 ball the rest of the way. I still expect a bit better than that from the 2025 team, but they have been scuffling as of late.

Fifth, the Rockies sport a .229 win percentage. The modern era worst is .235 from the 1916 Philadelphia A's. They've improved somewhat over their historically bad start, going 12-25 since June 1. That's a .324 win percentage. If they do that the rest of the year they'll end up with 43 wins and a .265 win percentage, avoiding ignonimity and besting the 2024 White Sox by 2 games.

Lastly, here's the relative performance of baseball's divisions into the Break:

ALE +26
NLC +23
ALW +3
NLE -11
ALC -20
NLW -21

[sikeston bulldog2]

The ASB always comes around the 60% point through the season so it makes a good marker. It's always interesting to me to look at certain metrics.

First, how is the league overall playing out?

First, the MLB batting average is .245, historically on the low side. It would be 10th worse in the modern era (1900+), but is up slightly from last year and the league tends to hit better towards the end of the season. Still, the last decade or so has seen bottom 10% percentile hitting. The average is in the low .260s. The Cardinals are hitting .252, 7 points above the MLB average.

Second, MLB teams are scoring 4.38 runs per game. The Cards are at 4.58, or one more run every 5 games than the average. The lifetime average in MLB is 4.54 rpg, so the present game isn't as far off from the norm. It's a run every 6 games. So baseball teams are scoring runs on fewer hits than the long-term game play average. They aren't walking more. The 2025 BB/game rate is 3.19 against an all-time average of 3.16. That's only an extra walk avery 33 games. The Cards are at 3.14. The modern game still depends more on the home run than the traditional game. The 2025 HR rate is 1.12 HR/game (the Cards are at 1.00). That's 11th highest in history and well above the all-time average of .62. That's an additional HR every other game. The dead ball era skews that. The post-dead ball era HR/game is about .83. That's still an additional HR about every 3 games.

Third, MLB teams strikeout 8.26 times per game (Cards at 7.78). This is the 8th hightest in history, continueing a recent trend. The top 8 years have been the past 8 years. The all time average is 3.99, meaning the 2025 teams are putting the ball into play 4.27 fewer times per game. Ugh. If you want to put more fans in the seats, MLB should find a way to address this, and without a huge increas in walks.

Fourth, the Cards are 51-46, in 3rd place 6.5 games out. Last year at the break they were 50-46, in 2nd place 4.5 games out. About the same as last year. The 2024 played .500 ball the rest of the way. I still expect a bit better than that from the 2025 team, but they have been scuffling as of late.

Fifth, the Rockies sport a .229 win percentage. The modern era worst is .235 from the 1916 Philadelphia A's. They've improved somewhat over their historically bad start, going 12-25 since June 1. That's a .324 win percentage. If they do that the rest of the year they'll end up with 43 wins and a .265 win percentage, avoiding ignonimity and besting the 2024 White Sox by 2 games.

Lastly, here's the relative performance of baseball's divisions into the Break:

ALE +26
NLC +23
ALW +3
NLE -11
ALC -20
NLW -21

Your last entry is probably skewed hard by Colorado. What would the NLW look like with a normal last place team.

[imetsatchelpaige]

Interesting stuff, Brummer.
Thx.

[ScotchMIrish]

The ASB always comes around the 60% point through the season so it makes a good marker. It's always interesting to me to look at certain metrics.

First, how is the league overall playing out?

First, the MLB batting average is .245, historically on the low side. It would be 10th worse in the modern era (1900+), but is up slightly from last year and the league tends to hit better towards the end of the season. Still, the last decade or so has seen bottom 10% percentile hitting. The average is in the low .260s. The Cardinals are hitting .252, 7 points above the MLB average.

Second, MLB teams are scoring 4.38 runs per game. The Cards are at 4.58, or one more run every 5 games than the average. The lifetime average in MLB is 4.54 rpg, so the present game isn't as far off from the norm. It's a run every 6 games. So baseball teams are scoring runs on fewer hits than the long-term game play average. They aren't walking more. The 2025 BB/game rate is 3.19 against an all-time average of 3.16. That's only an extra walk avery 33 games. The Cards are at 3.14. The modern game still depends more on the home run than the traditional game. The 2025 HR rate is 1.12 HR/game (the Cards are at 1.00). That's 11th highest in history and well above the all-time average of .62. That's an additional HR every other game. The dead ball era skews that. The post-dead ball era HR/game is about .83. That's still an additional HR about every 3 games.

Third, MLB teams strikeout 8.26 times per game (Cards at 7.78). This is the 8th hightest in history, continueing a recent trend. The top 8 years have been the past 8 years. The all time average is 3.99, meaning the 2025 teams are putting the ball into play 4.27 fewer times per game. Ugh. If you want to put more fans in the seats, MLB should find a way to address this, and without a huge increas in walks.

Fourth, the Cards are 51-46, in 3rd place 6.5 games out. Last year at the break they were 50-46, in 2nd place 4.5 games out. About the same as last year. The 2024 played .500 ball the rest of the way. I still expect a bit better than that from the 2025 team, but they have been scuffling as of late.

Fifth, the Rockies sport a .229 win percentage. The modern era worst is .235 from the 1916 Philadelphia A's. They've improved somewhat over their historically bad start, going 12-25 since June 1. That's a .324 win percentage. If they do that the rest of the year they'll end up with 43 wins and a .265 win percentage, avoiding ignonimity and besting the 2024 White Sox by 2 games.

Lastly, here's the relative performance of baseball's divisions into the Break:

ALE +26
NLC +23
ALW +3
NLE -11
ALC -20
NLW -21

So DH baseball isn't generating more runs than historical average?

[RunSup]

Good stuff, Brummer. Thanks for the work here.

...
Fourth, the Cards are 51-46, in 3rd place 6.5 games out. Last year at the break they were 50-46, in 2nd place 4.5 games out. About the same as last year. The 2024 played .500 ball the rest of the way. I still expect a bit better than that from the 2025 team, but they have been scuffling as of late.
...

So we have basically the same record as last year at this point. Mo attempted to add at the deadline and the team went in reverse.

The series against the Pirates and Cubs was so disheartening to me, I got off the train and am in sell mode.

They play sub-500 teams for the next couple of weeks (Dbacks, Rockies, Marlins) with the Padres mixed in before the deadline. Then go to So Cal and play the cubs again right after the deadline.

Too bad that So Cal trip isn't now. They'll sucker us *and* Mo back into believing for 2025.

An intervention will be required as Mo decides not to trade Helsley, Matz, and Maton for prospects. Instead he'll add some rental because they are in "contention".

Oh well. I'm here for the ride. Will get a pretzel and beer and sit back and enjoy it.

[BrummerStealsHome]

Good stuff, Brummer. Thanks for the work here.

...
Fourth, the Cards are 51-46, in 3rd place 6.5 games out. Last year at the break they were 50-46, in 2nd place 4.5 games out. About the same as last year. The 2024 played .500 ball the rest of the way. I still expect a bit better than that from the 2025 team, but they have been scuffling as of late.
...

So we have basically the same record as last year at this point. Mo attempted to add at the deadline and the team went in reverse.

The series against the Pirates and Cubs was so disheartening to me, I got off the train and am in sell mode.

They play sub-500 teams for the next couple of weeks (Dbacks, Rockies, Marlins) with the Padres mixed in before the deadline. Then go to So Cal and play the cubs again right after the deadline.

Too bad that So Cal trip isn't now. They'll sucker us *and* Mo back into believing for 2025.

An intervention will be required as Mo decides not to trade Helsley, Matz, and Maton for prospects. Instead he'll add some rental because they are in "contention".

Oh well. I'm here for the ride. Will get a pretzel and beer and sit back and enjoy it.

I hear you. It's so easy to get sucked in, but at the end of the day it's best to keep expectations low (or "Lo and Mo" as I like to say) for 2025. Figure out which of these young guys are real and which are pretenders.

I still think we can rob someone with Fedde. Desperate teams oftern overplay, and dramatically, for starting pitching at the trade deadlines. Throw him out there against a couple of the weakest team and then dangle that bait . . .

[Goldfan]

Good stuff, Brummer. Thanks for the work here.

...
Fourth, the Cards are 51-46, in 3rd place 6.5 games out. Last year at the break they were 50-46, in 2nd place 4.5 games out. About the same as last year. The 2024 played .500 ball the rest of the way. I still expect a bit better than that from the 2025 team, but they have been scuffling as of late.
...

So we have basically the same record as last year at this point. Mo attempted to add at the deadline and the team went in reverse.

The series against the Pirates and Cubs was so disheartening to me, I got off the train and am in sell mode.

They play sub-500 teams for the next couple of weeks (Dbacks, Rockies, Marlins) with the Padres mixed in before the deadline. Then go to So Cal and play the cubs again right after the deadline.

Too bad that So Cal trip isn't now. They'll sucker us *and* Mo back into believing for 2025.

An intervention will be required as Mo decides not to trade Helsley, Matz, and Maton for prospects. Instead he'll add some rental because they are in "contention".

Oh well. I'm here for the ride. Will get a pretzel and beer and sit back and enjoy it.

I hear you. It's so easy to get sucked in, but at the end of the day it's best to keep expectations low (or "Lo and Mo" as I like to say) for 2025. Figure out which of these young guys are real and which are pretenders.

I still think we can rob someone with Fedde. Desperate teams oftern overplay, and dramatically, for starting pitching at the trade deadlines. Throw him out there against a couple of the weakest team and then dangle that bait . . .

This was trumpeted, heralded, broadcast of the year of YUTES.
Can anyone honestly say they know anything they didn’t already know about the youth that was supposed to be give that all important FULL SEASON to fly?
Winn-appears to have regressed
Walker-has shown me nothing
Gorman- has a good streak during a season but overall VERY inconsistent and not reliable
Noot- mostly healthy and hasn’t lived up to vaunted slash line promise everyone was counting on if he were healthy
Scott- he can run and chase down the ball in CF, perhaps deserves more time
Burly- can put up good not great numbers
None can put this starting 9 over the top, all should be easily replaced with a better option except perhaps Winn
All have pretty much proven to be about who I thought they were and as I’ve said before this auditioning shouldn’t be done at the ML level

[imetsatchelpaige]

Good stuff, Brummer. Thanks for the work here.

...
Fourth, the Cards are 51-46, in 3rd place 6.5 games out. Last year at the break they were 50-46, in 2nd place 4.5 games out. About the same as last year. The 2024 played .500 ball the rest of the way. I still expect a bit better than that from the 2025 team, but they have been scuffling as of late.
...

So we have basically the same record as last year at this point. Mo attempted to add at the deadline and the team went in reverse.

The series against the Pirates and Cubs was so disheartening to me, I got off the train and am in sell mode.

They play sub-500 teams for the next couple of weeks (Dbacks, Rockies, Marlins) with the Padres mixed in before the deadline. Then go to So Cal and play the cubs again right after the deadline.

Too bad that So Cal trip isn't now. They'll sucker us *and* Mo back into believing for 2025.

An intervention will be required as Mo decides not to trade Helsley, Matz, and Maton for prospects. Instead he'll add some rental because they are in "contention".

Oh well. I'm here for the ride. Will get a pretzel and beer and sit back and enjoy it.

The Pirates handed us our heads. We lost the series against the Cubs, Nats and Atlanta.
If we do better than .500 against the Dbacks, Rockies and Marlins, I'll be stunned. And if we do, it doesn't matter in the grand scheme.
SELL.

[RunSup]

You want it? We got it!! Everything must go!

Sell! Sell! Sell!

[Carp4Cy]

The ASB always comes around the 60% point through the season so it makes a good marker. It's always interesting to me to look at certain metrics.

First, how is the league overall playing out?

First, the MLB batting average is .245, historically on the low side. It would be 10th worse in the modern era (1900+), but is up slightly from last year and the league tends to hit better towards the end of the season. Still, the last decade or so has seen bottom 10% percentile hitting. The average is in the low .260s. The Cardinals are hitting .252, 7 points above the MLB average.

Second, MLB teams are scoring 4.38 runs per game. The Cards are at 4.58, or one more run every 5 games than the average. The lifetime average in MLB is 4.54 rpg, so the present game isn't as far off from the norm. It's a run every 6 games. So baseball teams are scoring runs on fewer hits than the long-term game play average. They aren't walking more. The 2025 BB/game rate is 3.19 against an all-time average of 3.16. That's only an extra walk avery 33 games. The Cards are at 3.14. The modern game still depends more on the home run than the traditional game. The 2025 HR rate is 1.12 HR/game (the Cards are at 1.00). That's 11th highest in history and well above the all-time average of .62. That's an additional HR every other game. The dead ball era skews that. The post-dead ball era HR/game is about .83. That's still an additional HR about every 3 games.

Third, MLB teams strikeout 8.26 times per game (Cards at 7.78). This is the 8th hightest in history, continueing a recent trend. The top 8 years have been the past 8 years. The all time average is 3.99, meaning the 2025 teams are putting the ball into play 4.27 fewer times per game. Ugh. If you want to put more fans in the seats, MLB should find a way to address this, and without a huge increas in walks.

Fourth, the Cards are 51-46, in 3rd place 6.5 games out. Last year at the break they were 50-46, in 2nd place 4.5 games out. About the same as last year. The 2024 played .500 ball the rest of the way. I still expect a bit better than that from the 2025 team, but they have been scuffling as of late.

Fifth, the Rockies sport a .229 win percentage. The modern era worst is .235 from the 1916 Philadelphia A's. They've improved somewhat over their historically bad start, going 12-25 since June 1. That's a .324 win percentage. If they do that the rest of the year they'll end up with 43 wins and a .265 win percentage, avoiding ignonimity and besting the 2024 White Sox by 2 games.

Lastly, here's the relative performance of baseball's divisions into the Break:

ALE +26
NLC +23
ALW +3
NLE -11
ALC -20
NLW -21

So DH baseball isn't generating more runs than historical average?

that's w/l differential by division, not runs, isn't it?

[ScotchMIrish]

The ASB always comes around the 60% point through the season so it makes a good marker. It's always interesting to me to look at certain metrics.

First, how is the league overall playing out?

First, the MLB batting average is .245, historically on the low side. It would be 10th worse in the modern era (1900+), but is up slightly from last year and the league tends to hit better towards the end of the season. Still, the last decade or so has seen bottom 10% percentile hitting. The average is in the low .260s. The Cardinals are hitting .252, 7 points above the MLB average.

Second, MLB teams are scoring 4.38 runs per game. The Cards are at 4.58, or one more run every 5 games than the average. The lifetime average in MLB is 4.54 rpg, so the present game isn't as far off from the norm. It's a run every 6 games. So baseball teams are scoring runs on fewer hits than the long-term game play average. They aren't walking more. The 2025 BB/game rate is 3.19 against an all-time average of 3.16. That's only an extra walk avery 33 games. The Cards are at 3.14. The modern game still depends more on the home run than the traditional game. The 2025 HR rate is 1.12 HR/game (the Cards are at 1.00). That's 11th highest in history and well above the all-time average of .62. That's an additional HR every other game. The dead ball era skews that. The post-dead ball era HR/game is about .83. That's still an additional HR about every 3 games.

Third, MLB teams strikeout 8.26 times per game (Cards at 7.78). This is the 8th hightest in history, continueing a recent trend. The top 8 years have been the past 8 years. The all time average is 3.99, meaning the 2025 teams are putting the ball into play 4.27 fewer times per game. Ugh. If you want to put more fans in the seats, MLB should find a way to address this, and without a huge increas in walks.

Fourth, the Cards are 51-46, in 3rd place 6.5 games out. Last year at the break they were 50-46, in 2nd place 4.5 games out. About the same as last year. The 2024 played .500 ball the rest of the way. I still expect a bit better than that from the 2025 team, but they have been scuffling as of late.

Fifth, the Rockies sport a .229 win percentage. The modern era worst is .235 from the 1916 Philadelphia A's. They've improved somewhat over their historically bad start, going 12-25 since June 1. That's a .324 win percentage. If they do that the rest of the year they'll end up with 43 wins and a .265 win percentage, avoiding ignonimity and besting the 2024 White Sox by 2 games.

Lastly, here's the relative performance of baseball's divisions into the Break:

ALE +26
NLC +23
ALW +3
NLE -11
ALC -20
NLW -21

So DH baseball isn't generating more runs than historical average?

that's w/l differential by division, not runs, isn't it?

Batting average. Runs scored.

[cardstatman]

Run differential by division...

+195 NL Central
+160 AL East
-047 NL East
-061 AL West
-092 AL Central
-155 NL West

[sikeston bulldog2]

Run differential by division...

+195 NL Central
+160 AL East
-047 NL East
-061 AL West
-092 AL Central
-155 NL West

Well we are done with NL east except for 3 with Miami. We are done with the AL east except for Yanks and Rays.
We are done with AL west except for Seattle and A’s.

We are done with AL central.

We have 16 of next 19 against NL west.

We got like 20 ish in the division.

So the two best divisions, Al east NL central, about 25 ish games.