T. O Neil update

[Goldfan]

WAR is an estimate, but based on many statistics. I've used it for the best estimate of a player's overall value.
Not just hitting. Also defense and baserunning. Add adjustments for the venue and position.

What do you guys, Melville and Goldfan, think is the best statistic (or more) you guys argue that gives the best estimate of a total player worth, since that is what we are looking for when comparing players?

https://www.baseball-reference.com/abou ... tion.shtml
WAR for position players has six components: Batting Runs, Baserunning Runs, Runs added or lost due to Grounding into Double Plays, Fielding Runs, Positional Adjustment Runs, Replacement level Runs (based on playing time).
All are based on calculations. EX: Baserunning: Stolen Bases and Caught Stealing, and Non-Basestealing baserunning which includes items like 1st to 3rd on singles, outs on the bases, tagging up on fly balls, scoring from third on a ground ball, etc.

Show me yours...

Simply review the players real stats and WATCH HIM PLAY……
How do you know that all those factors are weighted appropriately?
Why is a positional adjustment required and how to you know it’s adjusted appropriately?
Why is there a comparison with a fictional “replacement level” player?
Once you start massaging real stats you don’t think you lose authenticity?
Lazy mans easy way out from doing the real homework

[OldRed]

Tyler O'Neill?

[ClassicO]

WAR is an estimate, but based on many statistics. I've used it for the best estimate of a player's overall value.
Not just hitting. Also defense and baserunning. Add adjustments for the venue and position.

What do you guys, Melville and Goldfan, think is the best statistic (or more) you guys argue that gives the best estimate of a total player worth, since that is what we are looking for when comparing players?

https://www.baseball-reference.com/abou ... tion.shtml
WAR for position players has six components: Batting Runs, Baserunning Runs, Runs added or lost due to Grounding into Double Plays, Fielding Runs, Positional Adjustment Runs, Replacement level Runs (based on playing time).
All are based on calculations. EX: Baserunning: Stolen Bases and Caught Stealing, and Non-Basestealing baserunning which includes items like 1st to 3rd on singles, outs on the bases, tagging up on fly balls, scoring from third on a ground ball, etc.

Show me yours...

Simply review the players real stats and WATCH HIM PLAY……
How do you know that all those factors are weighted appropriately?
Why is a positional adjustment required and how to you know it’s adjusted appropriately?
Why is there a comparison with a fictional “replacement level” player?
Once you start massaging real stats you don’t think you lose authenticity?
Lazy mans easy way out from doing the real homework

Since you avoid the question- if WAR is lazy, what is your best stat or set of stats to show a players’ worth in all areas?
Still waiting.
Complaints without offering an alternative = whining.

[Ozziesfan41]

A gold glove left fielder is overrated you can’t compare it to a guy like Winn who plays shortstop at a high level. A left fielder makes two maybe three catches a game? Of those every month he may make one or two plays other left fielders don’t make which may or may not lead to runs. O’Neil is woefully inconsistent you can’t plan on him contributing you definitely can’t go into the season saying he’s an anchor in the lineup because the only thing you know is he will go on the IL and his production will be hampered by injuries. Also if you have O’Neil on the team you have to have a fourth outfielder who is capable of playing every day because he’s going to be on the IL multiple times. So you can sing WAR all day long but it doesn’t change the fact that he is not a player a team should invest in unless it’s the dodgers who can sign solid 70 million dollar bench players to play everyday when he is on the IL

[sikeston bulldog2]

WAR is an estimate, but based on many statistics. I've used it for the best estimate of a player's overall value.
Not just hitting. Also defense and baserunning. Add adjustments for the venue and position.

What do you guys, Melville and Goldfan, think is the best statistic (or more) you guys argue that gives the best estimate of a total player worth, since that is what we are looking for when comparing players?

https://www.baseball-reference.com/abou ... tion.shtml
WAR for position players has six components: Batting Runs, Baserunning Runs, Runs added or lost due to Grounding into Double Plays, Fielding Runs, Positional Adjustment Runs, Replacement level Runs (based on playing time).
All are based on calculations. EX: Baserunning: Stolen Bases and Caught Stealing, and Non-Basestealing baserunning which includes items like 1st to 3rd on singles, outs on the bases, tagging up on fly balls, scoring from third on a ground ball, etc.

Show me yours...

Simply review the players real stats and WATCH HIM PLAY……
How do you know that all those factors are weighted appropriately?
Why is a positional adjustment required and how to you know it’s adjusted appropriately?
Why is there a comparison with a fictional “replacement level” player?
Once you start massaging real stats you don’t think you lose authenticity?
Lazy mans easy way out from doing the real homework

Since you avoid the question- if WAR is lazy, what is your best stat or set of stats to show a players’ worth in all areas?
Still waiting.
Complaints without offering an alternative = whining.

Or

Addressing a problem without a solution = part of the problem.

[ClassicO]

WAR is an estimate, but based on many statistics. I've used it for the best estimate of a player's overall value.
Not just hitting. Also defense and baserunning. Add adjustments for the venue and position.

What do you guys, Melville and Goldfan, think is the best statistic (or more) you guys argue that gives the best estimate of a total player worth, since that is what we are looking for when comparing players?

https://www.baseball-reference.com/abou ... tion.shtml
WAR for position players has six components: Batting Runs, Baserunning Runs, Runs added or lost due to Grounding into Double Plays, Fielding Runs, Positional Adjustment Runs, Replacement level Runs (based on playing time).
All are based on calculations. EX: Baserunning: Stolen Bases and Caught Stealing, and Non-Basestealing baserunning which includes items like 1st to 3rd on singles, outs on the bases, tagging up on fly balls, scoring from third on a ground ball, etc.

Show me yours...

Simply review the players real stats and WATCH HIM PLAY……
How do you know that all those factors are weighted appropriately?
Why is a positional adjustment required and how to you know it’s adjusted appropriately?
Why is there a comparison with a fictional “replacement level” player?
Once you start massaging real stats you don’t think you lose authenticity?
Lazy mans easy way out from doing the real homework

Since you avoid the question- if WAR is lazy, what is your best stat or set of stats to show a players’ worth in all areas?
Still waiting.
Complaints without offering an alternative = whining.

Or

Addressing a problem without a solution = part of the problem.

Teams utilize WAR in various aspects to address real-life problems (not CT discussions), including contract negotiations, free agency, and trade evaluations. You're kidding yourself if you don't think they do. It also helps teams determine a player's worth in the open market and project their future value. So there is a problem, and while it's not a perfect solution, I ask again - what is? Batting average!?

[Goldfan]

A gold glove left fielder is overrated you can’t compare it to a guy like Winn who plays shortstop at a high level. A left fielder makes two maybe three catches a game? Of those every month he may make one or two plays other left fielders don’t make which may or may not lead to runs. O’Neil is woefully inconsistent you can’t plan on him contributing you definitely can’t go into the season saying he’s an anchor in the lineup because the only thing you know is he will go on the IL and his production will be hampered by injuries. Also if you have O’Neil on the team you have to have a fourth outfielder who is capable of playing every day because he’s going to be on the IL multiple times. So you can sing WAR all day long but it doesn’t change the fact that he is not a player a team should invest in unless it’s the dodgers who can sign solid 70 million dollar bench players to play everyday when he is on the IL

All True

[Goldfan]

WAR is an estimate, but based on many statistics. I've used it for the best estimate of a player's overall value.
Not just hitting. Also defense and baserunning. Add adjustments for the venue and position.

What do you guys, Melville and Goldfan, think is the best statistic (or more) you guys argue that gives the best estimate of a total player worth, since that is what we are looking for when comparing players?

https://www.baseball-reference.com/abou ... tion.shtml
WAR for position players has six components: Batting Runs, Baserunning Runs, Runs added or lost due to Grounding into Double Plays, Fielding Runs, Positional Adjustment Runs, Replacement level Runs (based on playing time).
All are based on calculations. EX: Baserunning: Stolen Bases and Caught Stealing, and Non-Basestealing baserunning which includes items like 1st to 3rd on singles, outs on the bases, tagging up on fly balls, scoring from third on a ground ball, etc.

Show me yours...

Simply review the players real stats and WATCH HIM PLAY……
How do you know that all those factors are weighted appropriately?
Why is a positional adjustment required and how to you know it’s adjusted appropriately?
Why is there a comparison with a fictional “replacement level” player?
Once you start massaging real stats you don’t think you lose authenticity?
Lazy mans easy way out from doing the real homework

Since you avoid the question- if WAR is lazy, what is your best stat or set of stats to show a players’ worth in all areas?
Still waiting.
Complaints without offering an alternative = whining.

The first sentence answered your question. Why are you entitled to a made up whole number with decimal point behind it to completely rank and explain the skill level of a player. Baseball skill levels are varied, nuanced with offense and defense completely different. But somehow you think a number between 1.0 and 10, 11, 12.0…..should encompass everything you need to know to rank a player. So again a 4.1, tell me what the breakdown is within that number for a player. Can you tell me he hits for avg, power…..both??? Is he fast, slow?? Can he throw? You still need to go into real stats to answer all those questions.

[JDW]

A gold glove left fielder is overrated you can’t compare it to a guy like Winn who plays shortstop at a high level. A left fielder makes two maybe three catches a game? Of those every month he may make one or two plays other left fielders don’t make which may or may not lead to runs. O’Neil is woefully inconsistent you can’t plan on him contributing you definitely can’t go into the season saying he’s an anchor in the lineup because the only thing you know is he will go on the IL and his production will be hampered by injuries. Also if you have O’Neil on the team you have to have a fourth outfielder who is capable of playing every day because he’s going to be on the IL multiple times. So you can sing WAR all day long but it doesn’t change the fact that he is not a player a team should invest in unless it’s the dodgers who can sign solid 70 million dollar bench players to play everyday when he is on the IL

All True

WAR weighs positions based on how many chances you get. A LF'ers defense doesn't have near as much weight as a SS for an example.
Whatever metric you think of, WAR probably already has it weighed.
No one claims it to be perfect, just the best correlation to W-L they've come up with yet.

[RunSup]

WAR is an estimate, but based on many statistics. I've used it for the best estimate of a player's overall value.
Not just hitting. Also defense and baserunning. Add adjustments for the venue and position.

What do you guys, Melville and Goldfan, think is the best statistic (or more) you guys argue that gives the best estimate of a total player worth, since that is what we are looking for when comparing players?

https://www.baseball-reference.com/abou ... tion.shtml
WAR for position players has six components: Batting Runs, Baserunning Runs, Runs added or lost due to Grounding into Double Plays, Fielding Runs, Positional Adjustment Runs, Replacement level Runs (based on playing time).
All are based on calculations. EX: Baserunning: Stolen Bases and Caught Stealing, and Non-Basestealing baserunning which includes items like 1st to 3rd on singles, outs on the bases, tagging up on fly balls, scoring from third on a ground ball, etc.

Show me yours...

Thank you. WAR is a useful as a summary of player value and relative comparison.

Value towards a win is provided different ways around run creation and run prevention.

It's not a counting stat (PA, AB,H,R, HR, SB, CS, K, BB, IP, BF, PT, PO, Assists...)

It's not a rate stat ( BA, OBP, SLUG, ERA, WHIP, K/9, BB/9)

It's just for summarizing and comparing value in terms of contribution to "wins". It doesn't tell you how that value is created. So you look at other data.

Runs Created and OPS get at offensive value well. But you can't just look at OPS and assume you have a power hitter or leadoff hitter.

WAR is also not a predictor. It' looks at past performance. It is also highly dependent on the player actually being in the lineup.

The stuff they are using for predicting performance are things like spin rates, exit velocities etc. and goes much deeper ... because they can collect so much more data now than when we were kids looking at the box scores in the Soorting News.

You don't have to like WAR or use WAR. Just when you enter a discussion comparing players and value, some kind of objective frame of reference is useful. Not the only thing to use. I still trust what scouting eyes see and discern.

[Goldfan]

WAR is an estimate, but based on many statistics. I've used it for the best estimate of a player's overall value.
Not just hitting. Also defense and baserunning. Add adjustments for the venue and position.

What do you guys, Melville and Goldfan, think is the best statistic (or more) you guys argue that gives the best estimate of a total player worth, since that is what we are looking for when comparing players?

https://www.baseball-reference.com/abou ... tion.shtml
WAR for position players has six components: Batting Runs, Baserunning Runs, Runs added or lost due to Grounding into Double Plays, Fielding Runs, Positional Adjustment Runs, Replacement level Runs (based on playing time).
All are based on calculations. EX: Baserunning: Stolen Bases and Caught Stealing, and Non-Basestealing baserunning which includes items like 1st to 3rd on singles, outs on the bases, tagging up on fly balls, scoring from third on a ground ball, etc.

Show me yours...

Thank you. WAR is a useful as a summary of player value and relative comparison.

Value towards a win is provided different ways around run creation and run prevention.

It's not a counting stat (PA, AB,H,R, HR, SB, CS, K, BB, IP, BF, PT, PO, Assists...)

It's not a rate stat ( BA, OBP, SLUG, ERA, WHIP, K/9, BB/9)

It's just for summarizing and comparing value in terms of contribution to "wins". It doesn't tell you how that value is created. So you look at other data.

Runs Created and OPS get at offensive value well. But you can't just look at OPS and assume you have a power hitter or leadoff hitter.

WAR is also not a predictor. It' looks at past performance. It is also highly dependent on the player actually being in the lineup.

The stuff they are using for predicting performance are things like spin rates, exit velocities etc. and goes much deeper ... because they can collect so much more data now than when we were kids looking at the box scores in the Soorting News.

You don't have to like WAR or use WAR. Just when you enter a discussion comparing players and value, some kind of objective frame of reference is useful. Not the only thing to use. I still trust what scouting eyes see and discern.

So all I would need to do is gather the corresponding WAR players that add up to 100 wins if I wish to have a 100 team? That simple?

[RunSup]

WAR is an estimate, but based on many statistics. I've used it for the best estimate of a player's overall value.
Not just hitting. Also defense and baserunning. Add adjustments for the venue and position.

What do you guys, Melville and Goldfan, think is the best statistic (or more) you guys argue that gives the best estimate of a total player worth, since that is what we are looking for when comparing players?

https://www.baseball-reference.com/abou ... tion.shtml
WAR for position players has six components: Batting Runs, Baserunning Runs, Runs added or lost due to Grounding into Double Plays, Fielding Runs, Positional Adjustment Runs, Replacement level Runs (based on playing time).
All are based on calculations. EX: Baserunning: Stolen Bases and Caught Stealing, and Non-Basestealing baserunning which includes items like 1st to 3rd on singles, outs on the bases, tagging up on fly balls, scoring from third on a ground ball, etc.

Show me yours...

Thank you. WAR is a useful as a summary of player value and relative comparison.

Value towards a win is provided different ways around run creation and run prevention.

It's not a counting stat (PA, AB,H,R, HR, SB, CS, K, BB, IP, BF, PT, PO, Assists...)

It's not a rate stat ( BA, OBP, SLUG, ERA, WHIP, K/9, BB/9)

It's just for summarizing and comparing value in terms of contribution to "wins". It doesn't tell you how that value is created. So you look at other data.

Runs Created and OPS get at offensive value well. But you can't just look at OPS and assume you have a power hitter or leadoff hitter.

WAR is also not a predictor. It' looks at past performance. It is also highly dependent on the player actually being in the lineup.

The stuff they are using for predicting performance are things like spin rates, exit velocities etc. and goes much deeper ... because they can collect so much more data now than when we were kids looking at the box scores in the Soorting News.

You don't have to like WAR or use WAR. Just when you enter a discussion comparing players and value, some kind of objective frame of reference is useful. Not the only thing to use. I still trust what scouting eyes see and discern.

So all I would need to do is gather the corresponding WAR players that add up to 100 wins if I wish to have a 100 team? That simple?

You could assemble a team that way. Do it intelligently and distribute the wins value over pitching staff, offense and defense.

You'd have to address cost per win and allocate your finances.

Also need good coaches, managers, trainers, and pool of talent in the minors to augment with development staff.

But you could play GM using that approach.

There's a good GM sim game called OOTP baseball if you want to mess around with it.

[ClassicO]

WAR is an estimate, but based on many statistics. I've used it for the best estimate of a player's overall value.
Not just hitting. Also defense and baserunning. Add adjustments for the venue and position.

What do you guys, Melville and Goldfan, think is the best statistic (or more) you guys argue that gives the best estimate of a total player worth, since that is what we are looking for when comparing players?

https://www.baseball-reference.com/abou ... tion.shtml
WAR for position players has six components: Batting Runs, Baserunning Runs, Runs added or lost due to Grounding into Double Plays, Fielding Runs, Positional Adjustment Runs, Replacement level Runs (based on playing time).
All are based on calculations. EX: Baserunning: Stolen Bases and Caught Stealing, and Non-Basestealing baserunning which includes items like 1st to 3rd on singles, outs on the bases, tagging up on fly balls, scoring from third on a ground ball, etc.

Show me yours...

Thank you. WAR is a useful as a summary of player value and relative comparison.

Value towards a win is provided different ways around run creation and run prevention.

It's not a counting stat (PA, AB,H,R, HR, SB, CS, K, BB, IP, BF, PT, PO, Assists...)

It's not a rate stat ( BA, OBP, SLUG, ERA, WHIP, K/9, BB/9)

It's just for summarizing and comparing value in terms of contribution to "wins". It doesn't tell you how that value is created. So you look at other data.

Runs Created and OPS get at offensive value well. But you can't just look at OPS and assume you have a power hitter or leadoff hitter.

WAR is also not a predictor. It' looks at past performance. It is also highly dependent on the player actually being in the lineup.

The stuff they are using for predicting performance are things like spin rates, exit velocities etc. and goes much deeper ... because they can collect so much more data now than when we were kids looking at the box scores in the Soorting News.

You don't have to like WAR or use WAR. Just when you enter a discussion comparing players and value, some kind of objective frame of reference is useful. Not the only thing to use. I still trust what scouting eyes see and discern.

Well said. The beauty of baseball is having so many stats that tell you different things about a player. There wasn't a comparison tool before WAR that was worth a darn, so let it be what it strives to be - an estimator of player overall value. Or find something new. Or be the whiner who yells at clouds but doesn't offer anything better.

[ClassicO]

WAR is an estimate, but based on many statistics. I've used it for the best estimate of a player's overall value.
Not just hitting. Also defense and baserunning. Add adjustments for the venue and position.

What do you guys, Melville and Goldfan, think is the best statistic (or more) you guys argue that gives the best estimate of a total player worth, since that is what we are looking for when comparing players?

https://www.baseball-reference.com/abou ... tion.shtml
WAR for position players has six components: Batting Runs, Baserunning Runs, Runs added or lost due to Grounding into Double Plays, Fielding Runs, Positional Adjustment Runs, Replacement level Runs (based on playing time).
All are based on calculations. EX: Baserunning: Stolen Bases and Caught Stealing, and Non-Basestealing baserunning which includes items like 1st to 3rd on singles, outs on the bases, tagging up on fly balls, scoring from third on a ground ball, etc.

Show me yours...

Thank you. WAR is a useful as a summary of player value and relative comparison.

Value towards a win is provided different ways around run creation and run prevention.

It's not a counting stat (PA, AB,H,R, HR, SB, CS, K, BB, IP, BF, PT, PO, Assists...)

It's not a rate stat ( BA, OBP, SLUG, ERA, WHIP, K/9, BB/9)

It's just for summarizing and comparing value in terms of contribution to "wins". It doesn't tell you how that value is created. So you look at other data.

Runs Created and OPS get at offensive value well. But you can't just look at OPS and assume you have a power hitter or leadoff hitter.

WAR is also not a predictor. It' looks at past performance. It is also highly dependent on the player actually being in the lineup.

The stuff they are using for predicting performance are things like spin rates, exit velocities etc. and goes much deeper ... because they can collect so much more data now than when we were kids looking at the box scores in the Soorting News.

You don't have to like WAR or use WAR. Just when you enter a discussion comparing players and value, some kind of objective frame of reference is useful. Not the only thing to use. I still trust what scouting eyes see and discern.

So all I would need to do is gather the corresponding WAR players that add up to 100 wins if I wish to have a 100 team? That simple?

You are who Mark Twain thought about when he said, "no amount of evidence will ever persuade an idiot."

[Ozziesfan41]

WAR Isn’t useless but it’s very overrated. I still remember the war crowd saying the cards should have went above the cubs 184 million and signed Hayward for 200 million because he was a war god and I was saying a light hitting good defensive right fielder is not worth signing for anywhere close to that. And who can forget Jeffy saying how awesome the war god bader was and how he was better than Willie McGee lol

[Goldfan]

WAR Isn’t useless but it’s very overrated. I still remember the war crowd saying the cards should have went above the cubs 184 million and signed Hayward for 200 million because he was a war god and I was saying a light hitting good defensive right fielder is not worth signing for anywhere close to that. And who can forget Jeffy saying how awesome the war god bader was and how he was better than Willie McGee lol

Preach it Ozzie…..because all the plays that Heyward would make in RF over any other proficient RFer, maybe 5-10 PER SEASON……would somehow makeup for his .240 BA, 12HR and 60RBIs
It’s nuts that some have been brainwashed to this nonsense