Are there any "Can't Miss Prospects" in this draft and if so how many?

[ClassicO]

For all those in the know.
Are there any players that are so
talented that they will be guaranteed to
succeed at the MLB level.
You have that in Basketball and Football.
Just wondering if there are those in this
MLB draft.

I do think there are can’t miss prospects but none in this draft.

Ken Griffey Jr
Chipper Jones
Bryce Harper
Stephen Strasburg
Gerrit Cole
Paul Skenes
Joe Mauer

Just off the top of my head

I love having the 5th overall pick FWIW

+1.
It's a stupid premise = "can't miss." They are humans. Your list is accurate, but many would have said the same about Upton, Ruschman, Torkelson, Holliday and others.

[HOUCARD]

In the last 25 years (2000-2024), I count 10 #1 overall picks who have been clearly successful, and only a few who seem extraordinary: Skenes, Cole, Strasburg, Price, Mauer, Harper, A. Gonzales and Correa, (Swanson and Upton had very good careers, not extraordinary). As I've often said, the top pitchers in the league almost always are in the top 10 or so picks.

Not enough time yet to gauge Holliday and Travis Bazzana. Rutschman looked like a star, but his last 4 years have been a down-stock market graph, now under 100 wRC+.

https://www.mlb.com/news/every-no-1-ove ... draft-pick

Bregman, Tucker, Biggio, Berkman, Wagner, Springer come to mind. All Astros, but first round hits none the less.

[An Old Friend]

For all those in the know.
Are there any players that are so
talented that they will be guaranteed to
succeed at the MLB level.
You have that in Basketball and Football.
Just wondering if there are those in this
MLB draft.

I do think there are can’t miss prospects but none in this draft.

Ken Griffey Jr
Chipper Jones
Bryce Harper
Stephen Strasburg
Gerrit Cole
Paul Skenes
Joe Mauer

Just off the top of my head

I love having the 5th overall pick FWIW

+1.
It's a stupid premise = "can't miss." They are humans. Your list is accurate, but many would have said the same about Upton, Ruschman, Torkelson, Holliday and others.

I thought about including Justin Upton and should have... and he had a very good career.

I'd be hard pressed to say you could ever call a catcher, 1B, or high school pitcher a can't miss... other than Kershaw.

[45s]

No

[ClassicO]

In the last 25 years (2000-2024), I count 10 #1 overall picks who have been clearly successful, and only a few who seem extraordinary: Skenes, Cole, Strasburg, Price, Mauer, Harper, A. Gonzales and Correa, (Swanson and Upton had very good careers, not extraordinary). As I've often said, the top pitchers in the league almost always are in the top 10 or so picks.

Not enough time yet to gauge Holliday and Travis Bazzana. Rutschman looked like a star, but his last 4 years have been a down-stock market graph, now under 100 wRC+.

https://www.mlb.com/news/every-no-1-ove ... draft-pick

Bregman, Tucker, Biggio, Berkman, Wagner, Springer come to mind. All Astros, but first round hits none the less.

Yeah, I was referring to #1 overall picks, but Houston has killed it with both the draft and international signings.

[45s]

In the last 25 years (2000-2024), I count 10 #1 overall picks who have been clearly successful, and only a few who seem extraordinary: Skenes, Cole, Strasburg, Price, Mauer, Harper, A. Gonzales and Correa, (Swanson and Upton had very good careers, not extraordinary). As I've often said, the top pitchers in the league almost always are in the top 10 or so picks.

Not enough time yet to gauge Holliday and Travis Bazzana. Rutschman looked like a star, but his last 4 years have been a down-stock market graph, now under 100 wRC+.

https://www.mlb.com/news/every-no-1-ove ... draft-pick

Bregman, Tucker, Biggio, Berkman, Wagner, Springer come to mind. All Astros, but first round hits none the less.

Yeah, I was referring to #1 overall picks, but Houston has killed it with both the draft and international signings.

They have had great success……but they have picked some losers as well…

They just DFA one the other day…

Very successful in the international free agents

[HorseTrader]

Mr Melville and Jaytak. Respect you both and will listen to your evidence based examples. However, beg to differ. What was Paul Skenes drafted in, the seventh round? Y'all are WAY more in the know than I am. As well as tons of folks on this board. List some of the high draft picks where teams absolutely nailed it. And, if you'd like do the same with obvious misses. I'll go back to the latter category with Bob Horner back in the day by Atlanta. Although I think he was drafted #1 overall (don't hold me to it). And he was thought by all of MLB to be a can't miss prospect. And, although he had a decent career, it turns out that superstar status eluded him in the majors cuz he did not have the benefit of aluminum or magnesium bats like in college. Translation? Warning track power. Especially when he was traded to the spacious dimensions at Busch Stadium. Bet he would have been something with 'rhoids. And I don't mean hemorrhoids.

Skenes was the FIRST pick in round one of the 2023 draft. Need to check your info a little closer.

[AtillaTheBlue1]

No such thing

yes there are, skenes was easily, a star, cant miss prospect

[ClassicO]

In the last 25 years (2000-2024), I count 10 #1 overall picks who have been clearly successful, and only a few who seem extraordinary: Skenes, Cole, Strasburg, Price, Mauer, Harper, A. Gonzales and Correa, (Swanson and Upton had very good careers, not extraordinary). As I've often said, the top pitchers in the league almost always are in the top 10 or so picks.

Not enough time yet to gauge Holliday and Travis Bazzana. Rutschman looked like a star, but his last 4 years have been a down-stock market graph, now under 100 wRC+.

https://www.mlb.com/news/every-no-1-ove ... draft-pick

Bregman, Tucker, Biggio, Berkman, Wagner, Springer come to mind. All Astros, but first round hits none the less.

Yeah, I was referring to #1 overall picks, but Houston has killed it with both the draft and international signings.

They have had great success……but they have picked some losers as well…

They just DFA one the other day…

Very successful in the international free agents

Now that I’ve praised the Astros a few times, let’s not forget the bad years when they lost nearly 600 games from 2009 to 2014, including 106, 107 and 111 (!!) in three straight years.
Great pain can breed great joy, but both existed.
They’d burn down Busch stadium if that happened here.

[illiniriles]

Don't need to check my info a little closer. I knew Skenes was a very high draft choice. I was being facetious when I asked if he was a 7th round selection. Now as for late round selections that DID become superstars I would offer Pujols, and Piazza, and I think Stan Musial was like a walk on. They're all pretty good

[Jatalk]

Mr Melville and Jaytak. Respect you both and will listen to your evidence based examples. However, beg to differ. What was Paul Skenes drafted in, the seventh round? Y'all are WAY more in the know than I am. As well as tons of folks on this board. List some of the high draft picks where teams absolutely nailed it. And, if you'd like do the same with obvious misses. I'll go back to the latter category with Bob Horner back in the day by Atlanta. Although I think he was drafted #1 overall (don't hold me to it). And he was thought by all of MLB to be a can't miss prospect. And, although he had a decent career, it turns out that superstar status eluded him in the majors cuz he did not have the benefit of aluminum or magnesium bats like in college. Translation? Warning track power. Especially when he was traded to the spacious dimensions at Busch Stadium. Bet he would have been something with 'rhoids. And I don't mean hemorrhoids.

Top 4 picks from a 4 year period. I didnt want to do 2022-2025 to give players chance to make majors

2018- 1. Casey mize. 2.joey bart. 3. Alec boehm. 4 nick madrigal
2019 1. adley rutchman 2. Bobby witt jr. 3.andrew vaughn. 4. Jj bleday
2020 1.spencer torkelson 2.heston kjerdtad 3. Max meyer 4. Asa lacy
2021 1. Henry davis 2. Jack leiter 3. Jackson jobe 4.marcelo mayer


Only bobby witt jr is clear star. Now there have been some hits later in the first round of those drafts, but my point is even the top 4 picks is still a bit of a crapshoot with many misses. There have bit hits from older like strasburg and most the best pitchers come from the 1st round but the bust rate is extremely high.

Thank you for the examples. It is absolutely foolish to think you can claim a draft prospect is “can’t miss”. Anything can happen and has happened. Also there is the possibility of injury that impacts a lot of potentially great players.

[RamFan08NY]

For all those in the know.
Are there any players that are so
talented that they will be guaranteed to
succeed at the MLB level.
You have that in Basketball and Football.
Just wondering if there are those in this
MLB draft.

I do think there are can’t miss prospects but none in this draft.

Ken Griffey Jr
Chipper Jones
Bryce Harper
Stephen Strasburg
Gerrit Cole
Paul Skenes
Joe Mauer

Just off the top of my head

I love having the 5th overall pick FWIW

You listed the success stories. There are probably far more "can't miss" prospects that fizzled. Two right in your own back yard with Drew and Ankiel.

Joe Mauer was probably the most talented player coming out of college in my days. Very under appreciated because of where he played his pro career.

I also love picking this high. The scouts need to nail this one. Even if its a player "mocked" to go in the middle round. The scouts need to see success in this pick.

[Wattage]

For all those in the know.
Are there any players that are so
talented that they will be guaranteed to
succeed at the MLB level.
You have that in Basketball and Football.
Just wondering if there are those in this
MLB draft.

I do think there are can’t miss prospects but none in this draft.

Ken Griffey Jr
Chipper Jones
Bryce Harper
Stephen Strasburg
Gerrit Cole
Paul Skenes
Joe Mauer

Just off the top of my head

I love having the 5th overall pick FWIW

You listed the success stories. There are probably far more "can't miss" prospects that fizzled. Two right in your own back yard with Drew and Ankiel.

Joe Mauer was probably the most talented player coming out of college in my days. Very under appreciated because of where he played his pro career.

I also love picking this high. The scouts need to nail this one. Even if its a player "mocked" to go in the middle round. The scouts need to see success in this pick.

J.d. drew wasnt really a miss. He was oft injured- but he had a career ops + of 125 and had great numbers when he was healthy. Fpr some reason he had a much more negative perception than the numbers he was actually producing.

[Carp4Cy]

Mr Melville and Jaytak. Respect you both and will listen to your evidence based examples. However, beg to differ. What was Paul Skenes drafted in, the seventh round? Y'all are WAY more in the know than I am. As well as tons of folks on this board. List some of the high draft picks where teams absolutely nailed it. And, if you'd like do the same with obvious misses. I'll go back to the latter category with Bob Horner back in the day by Atlanta. Although I think he was drafted #1 overall (don't hold me to it). And he was thought by all of MLB to be a can't miss prospect. And, although he had a decent career, it turns out that superstar status eluded him in the majors cuz he did not have the benefit of aluminum or magnesium bats like in college. Translation? Warning track power. Especially when he was traded to the spacious dimensions at Busch Stadium. Bet he would have been something with 'rhoids. And I don't mean hemorrhoids.

Top 4 picks from a 4 year period. I didnt want to do 2022-2025 to give players chance to make majors

2018- 1. Casey mize. 2.joey bart. 3. Alec boehm. 4 nick madrigal
2019 1. adley rutchman 2. Bobby witt jr. 3.andrew vaughn. 4. Jj bleday
2020 1.spencer torkelson 2.heston kjerdtad 3. Max meyer 4. Asa lacy
2021 1. Henry davis 2. Jack leiter 3. Jackson jobe 4.marcelo mayer


Only bobby witt jr is clear star. Now there have been some hits later in the first round of those drafts, but my point is even the top 4 picks is still a bit of a crapshoot with many misses. There have bit hits from older like strasburg and most the best pitchers come from the 1st round but the bust rate is extremely high.

Griffey was a cant miss. Other years have had obvious #1 overall picks that everyone rightly expected to make the HOF (or at least deserve it). ARod in 93 for example. Cole, Harper. Strassburg and Price until they got hurt were stars. Mauer, Chipper. Josh Hamilton if not for the coke.

[illiniriles]

It's an interesting O/P and interesting debate on the subject. No, it is not absolutely foolish to think of someone as a can't miss prospect. That's why you draft him #1 overall or at least in the higher picks. Sure, you could miss. Lots of variables, etc.. But certainly not foolish. But thanks for the input

[An Old Friend]

For all those in the know.
Are there any players that are so
talented that they will be guaranteed to
succeed at the MLB level.
You have that in Basketball and Football.
Just wondering if there are those in this
MLB draft.

I do think there are can’t miss prospects but none in this draft.

Ken Griffey Jr
Chipper Jones
Bryce Harper
Stephen Strasburg
Gerrit Cole
Paul Skenes
Joe Mauer

Just off the top of my head

I love having the 5th overall pick FWIW

You listed the success stories. There are probably far more "can't miss" prospects that fizzled. Two right in your own back yard with Drew and Ankiel.

Joe Mauer was probably the most talented player coming out of college in my days. Very under appreciated because of where he played his pro career.

I also love picking this high. The scouts need to nail this one. Even if its a player "mocked" to go in the middle round. The scouts need to see success in this pick.

Drew didn’t fizzle. 45 career WAR, .900 OPS / 132 OPS+ with 200 HR over his 10 season prime.