Are there any "Can't Miss Prospects" in this draft and if so how many?

[Bully4you]

For all those in the know.
Are there any players that are so
talented that they will be guaranteed to
succeed at the MLB level.
You have that in Basketball and Football.
Just wondering if there are those in this
MLB draft.

[Jatalk]

No such thing

[Melville]

No such thing

Correct.

[illiniriles]

Mr Melville and Jaytak. Respect you both and will listen to your evidence based examples. However, beg to differ. What was Paul Skenes drafted in, the seventh round? Y'all are WAY more in the know than I am. As well as tons of folks on this board. List some of the high draft picks where teams absolutely nailed it. And, if you'd like do the same with obvious misses. I'll go back to the latter category with Bob Horner back in the day by Atlanta. Although I think he was drafted #1 overall (don't hold me to it). And he was thought by all of MLB to be a can't miss prospect. And, although he had a decent career, it turns out that superstar status eluded him in the majors cuz he did not have the benefit of aluminum or magnesium bats like in college. Translation? Warning track power. Especially when he was traded to the spacious dimensions at Busch Stadium. Bet he would have been something with 'rhoids. And I don't mean hemorrhoids.

[ClassicO]

In the last 25 years (2000-2024), I count 10 #1 overall picks who have been clearly successful, and only a few who seem extraordinary: Skenes, Cole, Strasburg, Price, Mauer, Harper, A. Gonzales and Correa, (Swanson and Upton had very good careers, not extraordinary). As I've often said, the top pitchers in the league almost always are in the top 10 or so picks.

Not enough time yet to gauge Holliday and Travis Bazzana. Rutschman looked like a star, but his last 4 years have been a down-stock market graph, now under 100 wRC+.

https://www.mlb.com/news/every-no-1-ove ... draft-pick

[illiniriles]

Outstanding! Thanks, ClassicO. That's what I'm talking about. Top notch reply.

[Wattage]

For all those in the know.
Are there any players that are so
talented that they will be guaranteed to
succeed at the MLB level.
You have that in Basketball and Football.
Just wondering if there are those in this
MLB draft.

Lets look at some past drafts to just hit home how baseball doesnt really have cant miss prospects. Im not doing 2025 or 2024 cuz i want to give time for prospects to recah majors.

2018- 1. Casey mize. 2.joey bart. 3. Alec boehm. 4 nick madrigal
2019 1. adley rutchman 2. Bobby witt jr. 3.andrew vaughn. 4. Jj bleday
2020 1.spencer torkelson 2.heston kjerdtad 3. Max meyer 4. Asa lacy
2021 1. Henry davis 2. Jack leiter 3. Jackson jobe 4.marcelo mayer


Now how many of those players became stars? Bobby witt jr? Torkelson is having an okay start after 3 terrible years.

And those are the top 4 selections each draft. Its a crapshoot. Unlike other leagues, there is too many steps and pevels to get to the majors so you really dont know how great prospects they are til they get closer.

[Wattage]

Mr Melville and Jaytak. Respect you both and will listen to your evidence based examples. However, beg to differ. What was Paul Skenes drafted in, the seventh round? Y'all are WAY more in the know than I am. As well as tons of folks on this board. List some of the high draft picks where teams absolutely nailed it. And, if you'd like do the same with obvious misses. I'll go back to the latter category with Bob Horner back in the day by Atlanta. Although I think he was drafted #1 overall (don't hold me to it). And he was thought by all of MLB to be a can't miss prospect. And, although he had a decent career, it turns out that superstar status eluded him in the majors cuz he did not have the benefit of aluminum or magnesium bats like in college. Translation? Warning track power. Especially when he was traded to the spacious dimensions at Busch Stadium. Bet he would have been something with 'rhoids. And I don't mean hemorrhoids.

Top 4 picks from a 4 year period. I didnt want to do 2022-2025 to give players chance to make majors

2018- 1. Casey mize. 2.joey bart. 3. Alec boehm. 4 nick madrigal
2019 1. adley rutchman 2. Bobby witt jr. 3.andrew vaughn. 4. Jj bleday
2020 1.spencer torkelson 2.heston kjerdtad 3. Max meyer 4. Asa lacy
2021 1. Henry davis 2. Jack leiter 3. Jackson jobe 4.marcelo mayer


Only bobby witt jr is clear star. Now there have been some hits later in the first round of those drafts, but my point is even the top 4 picks is still a bit of a crapshoot with many misses. There have bit hits from older like strasburg and most the best pitchers come from the 1st round but the bust rate is extremely high.

[moose-and-squirrel]

For all those in the know.
Are there any players that are so
talented that they will be guaranteed to
succeed at the MLB level.
You have that in Basketball and Football.
Just wondering if there are those in this
MLB draft.

Lets look at some past drafts to just hit home how baseball doesnt really have cant miss prospects. Im not doing 2025 or 2024 cuz i want to give time for prospects to recah majors.

2018- 1. Casey mize. 2.joey bart. 3. Alec boehm. 4 nick madrigal
2019 1. adley rutchman 2. Bobby witt jr. 3.andrew vaughn. 4. Jj bleday
2020 1.spencer torkelson 2.heston kjerdtad 3. Max meyer 4. Asa lacy
2021 1. Henry davis 2. Jack leiter 3. Jackson jobe 4.marcelo mayer


Now how many of those players became stars? Bobby witt jr? Torkelson is having an okay start after 3 terrible years.

And those are the top 4 selections each draft. Its a crapshoot. Unlike other leagues, there is too many steps and pevels to get to the majors so you really dont know how great prospects they are til they get closer.

for further clarity, going back the full 10 yrs

2015:
swanson
bregman
Rodgers
tate
tucker

2016:
moniak
senzel
Anderson
pint
ray

2017:
lewis
greene
gore
McKay
wright

the 15 and 17 classes have allstars in those 1st 5 picks

[RamFan08NY]

For all those in the know.
Are there any players that are so
talented that they will be guaranteed to
succeed at the MLB level.
You have that in Basketball and Football.
Just wondering if there are those in this
MLB draft.

If there was such a thing they'd be gone before 5.

[Bully4you]

For all those in the know.
Are there any players that are so
talented that they will be guaranteed to
succeed at the MLB level.
You have that in Basketball and Football.
Just wondering if there are those in this
MLB draft.

If there was such a thing they'd be gone before 5.

Yeah, I suppose.
In Basketball and Football there are usually a few that
are labeled as such.
Weird how baseball is so different.

[bccardsfan]

As has just been astutely researched above, there are no "Cant Miss Prospects". I will add that with pitching prospects, there always exists the possibility of the blown out arm requiring TJ surgery. Also, a guy like Pujols from late rounds can beat the odds. All that said, a good scouting and drafting department will do better than a poor one over time. The minor league system also needs good coaching and tools to help the players develop as well. Hopefully the Cards recent change of direction will improve the minor league pipleline over the next 5 years. Right now we are short of real pitching prospects in AAA who can actually help the big league club soon. We seem to be rich in catchers though.... Draft will be interesting to watch.

[Bully4you]

So basically, all you guys are saying
that there's no need to be excited about
the #5 pick.
At the same time everyone was rooting for the
Cards to move up in the draft.
Clown show.

[An Old Friend]

For all those in the know.
Are there any players that are so
talented that they will be guaranteed to
succeed at the MLB level.
You have that in Basketball and Football.
Just wondering if there are those in this
MLB draft.

I do think there are can’t miss prospects but none in this draft.

Ken Griffey Jr
Chipper Jones
Bryce Harper
Stephen Strasburg
Gerrit Cole
Paul Skenes
Joe Mauer

Just off the top of my head

I love having the 5th overall pick FWIW

[bccardsfan]

So basically, all you guys are saying
that there's no need to be excited about
the #5 pick.
At the same time everyone was rooting for the
Cards to move up in the draft.
Clown show.

No, I think it is great we have a #5 pick. As I said, over time a good org will do much better than a bad one at draft and develop, and the team appears to have put the pieces in place to do much better. I like Bloom and his hires. It is just that even a #1 pick is not guaranteed, that is all.

[Wattage]

So basically, all you guys are saying
that there's no need to be excited about
the #5 pick.
At the same time everyone was rooting for the
Cards to move up in the draft.
Clown show.

There are hits- some even later in 1st round with comp picks like wacha. But dont get too excited about draft order. The bust rate is so high its a (bleep) shoot. Its only as a player starts rising through minors that you can see what type of prospect they are.

1st round picks only have about a 67% of playing in the majors at all. And that 67% includes the pete kozmas and tyler greenes who dont do much once up here