Cards need a 6+ WAR slugger, not more JAGs

[Carp4Cy]

The team's malaise over the last several years all comes back to the fact that they have not developed a 6+ WAR slugger (or 6+ WAR pitcher for that matter). As much as the Goldy and Nado trades worked out in our favor, the Ozuna exchange erased those gains.

Fact is, the front office has paired mediocre results with mediocre luck.

Really the last one we developed was Matt Carpenter, and 2018 was his last great year.

[Carp4Cy]

The team's malaise over the last several years all comes back to the fact that they have not developed a 6+ WAR slugger (or 6+ WAR pitcher for that matter). As much as the Goldy and Nado trades worked out in our favor, the Ozuna exchange erased those gains.

Fact is, the front office has paired mediocre results with mediocre luck.

Really the last one we developed was Matt Carpenter, and 2018 was his last great year.

After looking back at 2018 - just imagine if we'd had Goldy and/or Nado at that point along with Matt Carpenter, Ozuna, Wong, PDJ's best year, Mikolas 18 win season, Wacha with 8-2 record, Flaherty, Hudson when he was good, AS Yadi with 20 HRs.

Goldy and Nado would have replaced JMart and Gyorko. We would have rolled the National League.

[rockondlouie]

The one obvious player available this winter if the Cubs do not extend him is Kyle Tucker. He will be 29 at the start of next season. Not sure what the projections are to sign him, but lets say 10/$300M. Everyone good with that number. It will be a massive overpay by the end of the contract. Lets say he puts up 3 more years of 900 OPS and 3 years of 800 OPS ball before declining below 800. He is an average OF. He would provide the most certainty of production. He is a 25-30 HR guy. So not a monster slugger, but a great hitter with a high OBP. His numbers are really similar to a Matt Holliday. I would expect the first 6 years of his contract to look almost exactly like Matt Holliday. Holliday took a lot of criticism in this city...

I think their window to compete will open in 2027. As many people who want to trade Donovan on this board, the real move is to sign a player like Tucker, in particular if they can trade Arenado. Then have an IF of Donovan, Winn, Wetherholdt and Contreras (Preferably Burleson if Contreras will waive the NTC.) OF of Baez, if he comes through, Scott and Tucker. Catcher of Bernal with Herrera the back-up / DH. Baez is still striking out a ton in Springfield, so he is no certainty. Nathan Church who has good bat to ball skills and Burleson are insurance. If Wetherholdt, Donovan, Tucker and Herrera can put up 800-900 OPS numbers with good OBP numbers, they have a nucleus to compete. Then the complementary hitters, Winn, Scott, Burleson, Contreras fill out the line-up decently.

I think Tucker may be more in the $400-500 million range. I could see the Giants, Dodgers, Cubs, Yankees, etc. being involved. And who knows, there may be a surprise team. If enough gets involved it could surpass $500 million.

And yes, it will be a massive overpay. But that’s what the market sees now with Ohtani, Soto, Vlad Jr. etc.

Man this is getting crazy when a player like Tucker (nice player but.......c'mon not that great: career .276 .358 .516 .874) is going to get $400-500M.

It is, I think he’s a really good player though. Last year he played only 78 games and still ended up with basically a 5 WAR season. Had he stayed healthy he’s probably having a 6-7 WAR season and we’d probably be talking about a 2nd straight 7 WAR season this year following 3 5+ WAR seasons before that.

Just read something that Jim Bowden (take it for what it’s worth) says he believes the next Tucker deal will begin with a “6” as in $600+ million.

Vlad Guerrero Jr. just got a $500 million deal and while he’s younger than Tucker, I think Tucker is the better player. He’s somewhere between Vlad Jr. and Soto, while yes being a couple years older than either.

That he is, but going into his age 29 season he's not worth $400-500M.

Honestly unless we're talking 25 year old Albert level w/eight great years left, no player is worth $400-500M.

I discount almost 99% of what Bowden posts, he's the King of hyperbole.

Soto is vastly over paid as well.

GM probably right about it being $400-500M. WAR likes Tucker better than Matt Holliday, but, the statistics are amazingly comparable except Tucker is a better RF than Holliday was a LF and it is a more premium position. That appears to be the main WAR difference. I thought my $300M would be an overpay because of the back-end of that contract. $400-500M will be a massive overpay.

Rock, I think what we are really witnessing is the tiering of ownership. The tier 1 guys, Dodgers, Mets, Phillies etc., can overpay because of their higher revenues and wealthier ownership. Tier 2 teams like the Cards just are not going to compete at that level. The only other alternative is to try and make a trade with the A's for Brent Rooker. He is not as good of a player, defense and bat is not quite as good. But 4 years of control plus 1 more option year in 2030 at $60M total for 2025-2029 is a bargain. Baseball trade value has him at $39.1M. I don't subscribe to BTV, so don't have access to all the values, but Gorman 12, Sagesse 10, Roby 4, Crooks 12 is probably somewhere in the ballpark to get him...

Agree about the "tiering of ownership" and under the "new" BDWJr the Cardinals are quickly sliding out of the mid tier.

I've been on Rooker since last year when I mentioned him as a trade target.

Unfortunately given their moving to Vegas I doubt they'd deal him as they need that star player to sell tickets.

But if they would, then I like your offer.

Could even sub in Walker for Gorman, give them their choice.

[rockondlouie]

The one obvious player available this winter if the Cubs do not extend him is Kyle Tucker. He will be 29 at the start of next season. Not sure what the projections are to sign him, but lets say 10/$300M. Everyone good with that number. It will be a massive overpay by the end of the contract. Lets say he puts up 3 more years of 900 OPS and 3 years of 800 OPS ball before declining below 800. He is an average OF. He would provide the most certainty of production. He is a 25-30 HR guy. So not a monster slugger, but a great hitter with a high OBP. His numbers are really similar to a Matt Holliday. I would expect the first 6 years of his contract to look almost exactly like Matt Holliday. Holliday took a lot of criticism in this city...

I think their window to compete will open in 2027. As many people who want to trade Donovan on this board, the real move is to sign a player like Tucker, in particular if they can trade Arenado. Then have an IF of Donovan, Winn, Wetherholdt and Contreras (Preferably Burleson if Contreras will waive the NTC.) OF of Baez, if he comes through, Scott and Tucker. Catcher of Bernal with Herrera the back-up / DH. Baez is still striking out a ton in Springfield, so he is no certainty. Nathan Church who has good bat to ball skills and Burleson are insurance. If Wetherholdt, Donovan, Tucker and Herrera can put up 800-900 OPS numbers with good OBP numbers, they have a nucleus to compete. Then the complementary hitters, Winn, Scott, Burleson, Contreras fill out the line-up decently.

I think Tucker may be more in the $400-500 million range. I could see the Giants, Dodgers, Cubs, Yankees, etc. being involved. And who knows, there may be a surprise team. If enough gets involved it could surpass $500 million.

And yes, it will be a massive overpay. But that’s what the market sees now with Ohtani, Soto, Vlad Jr. etc.

Man this is getting crazy when a player like Tucker (nice player but.......c'mon not that great: career .276 .358 .516 .874) is going to get $400-500M.

It is, I think he’s a really good player though. Last year he played only 78 games and still ended up with basically a 5 WAR season. Had he stayed healthy he’s probably having a 6-7 WAR season and we’d probably be talking about a 2nd straight 7 WAR season this year following 3 5+ WAR seasons before that.

Just read something that Jim Bowden (take it for what it’s worth) says he believes the next Tucker deal will begin with a “6” as in $600+ million.

Vlad Guerrero Jr. just got a $500 million deal and while he’s younger than Tucker, I think Tucker is the better player. He’s somewhere between Vlad Jr. and Soto, while yes being a couple years older than either.

That he is, but going into his age 29 season he's not worth $400-500M.

Honestly unless we're talking 25 year old Albert level w/eight great years left, no player is worth $400-500M.

I discount almost 99% of what Bowden posts, he's the King of hyperbole.

Soto is vastly over paid as well.

+1 Bowden = idiot.

Note: Shoto's deal is vastly overstated. FAR less than Soto and Vlad. I think his interpreter gave him the advice to take it.
The trick is the CBA, which imputes an interest rate of around 5% on the deferred money for the future years. That's FAR less than the Dodgers' owners (Guggenheim Investments) will make on that deferred money, and far less than Shohei would have made if he took it up front. The 5% is for luxury tax calculation only - not to value the contract in the real world. Under the CBA, its value is $460M. In real life, the Dodgers' actual impact will be far less = closer to $300M.
Vald's was fully guaranteed $500M for 14 years.

What Ohtani wanted was to avoid those high Cali state income taxes.

From AI:
Shohei Ohtani is projected to save an estimated $90 to $100 million in California state income taxes by strategically deferring a large portion of his $700 million Los Angeles Dodgers contract


I can see a cap on deferred money coming, no way I see a hard salary cap thought.

[Futuregm2]

The one obvious player available this winter if the Cubs do not extend him is Kyle Tucker. He will be 29 at the start of next season. Not sure what the projections are to sign him, but lets say 10/$300M. Everyone good with that number. It will be a massive overpay by the end of the contract. Lets say he puts up 3 more years of 900 OPS and 3 years of 800 OPS ball before declining below 800. He is an average OF. He would provide the most certainty of production. He is a 25-30 HR guy. So not a monster slugger, but a great hitter with a high OBP. His numbers are really similar to a Matt Holliday. I would expect the first 6 years of his contract to look almost exactly like Matt Holliday. Holliday took a lot of criticism in this city...

I think their window to compete will open in 2027. As many people who want to trade Donovan on this board, the real move is to sign a player like Tucker, in particular if they can trade Arenado. Then have an IF of Donovan, Winn, Wetherholdt and Contreras (Preferably Burleson if Contreras will waive the NTC.) OF of Baez, if he comes through, Scott and Tucker. Catcher of Bernal with Herrera the back-up / DH. Baez is still striking out a ton in Springfield, so he is no certainty. Nathan Church who has good bat to ball skills and Burleson are insurance. If Wetherholdt, Donovan, Tucker and Herrera can put up 800-900 OPS numbers with good OBP numbers, they have a nucleus to compete. Then the complementary hitters, Winn, Scott, Burleson, Contreras fill out the line-up decently.

I think Tucker may be more in the $400-500 million range. I could see the Giants, Dodgers, Cubs, Yankees, etc. being involved. And who knows, there may be a surprise team. If enough gets involved it could surpass $500 million.

And yes, it will be a massive overpay. But that’s what the market sees now with Ohtani, Soto, Vlad Jr. etc.

101.1 had a GM say it will be over $600

That is a crazy number for a guy that is essentially a better fielding Matt Holliday. He will be in the hall of very good someday....Thank you for the information...

Maybe, maybe not. I think we’re underselling Tucker a little bit. He’s been elite.

Through age 28 season:

Larry Walker: .288/.362/.510 135 HR 481 RBI 114 SB 26.0 bWAR 2 GG 1 SS 5th place MVP finish top finish
Kyle Tucker: .276/.358/.515 142 HR 472 RBI 116 SB 26.8 bWAR 1 GG 1 SS 5th place MVP finish top finish ***Still in his age 28 season***

Walker’s numbers really weren’t all that HOF great overall and he played in Colorado and was in the steroid era.

2,106 hits
383 HR
1,311 RBI
1 MVP award
7 GG
3 SS

And he made the HOF. I think Tucker could ultimately put up similar numbers.

[ClassicO]

The one obvious player available this winter if the Cubs do not extend him is Kyle Tucker. He will be 29 at the start of next season. Not sure what the projections are to sign him, but lets say 10/$300M. Everyone good with that number. It will be a massive overpay by the end of the contract. Lets say he puts up 3 more years of 900 OPS and 3 years of 800 OPS ball before declining below 800. He is an average OF. He would provide the most certainty of production. He is a 25-30 HR guy. So not a monster slugger, but a great hitter with a high OBP. His numbers are really similar to a Matt Holliday. I would expect the first 6 years of his contract to look almost exactly like Matt Holliday. Holliday took a lot of criticism in this city...

I think their window to compete will open in 2027. As many people who want to trade Donovan on this board, the real move is to sign a player like Tucker, in particular if they can trade Arenado. Then have an IF of Donovan, Winn, Wetherholdt and Contreras (Preferably Burleson if Contreras will waive the NTC.) OF of Baez, if he comes through, Scott and Tucker. Catcher of Bernal with Herrera the back-up / DH. Baez is still striking out a ton in Springfield, so he is no certainty. Nathan Church who has good bat to ball skills and Burleson are insurance. If Wetherholdt, Donovan, Tucker and Herrera can put up 800-900 OPS numbers with good OBP numbers, they have a nucleus to compete. Then the complementary hitters, Winn, Scott, Burleson, Contreras fill out the line-up decently.

I think Tucker may be more in the $400-500 million range. I could see the Giants, Dodgers, Cubs, Yankees, etc. being involved. And who knows, there may be a surprise team. If enough gets involved it could surpass $500 million.

And yes, it will be a massive overpay. But that’s what the market sees now with Ohtani, Soto, Vlad Jr. etc.

Man this is getting crazy when a player like Tucker (nice player but.......c'mon not that great: career .276 .358 .516 .874) is going to get $400-500M.

It is, I think he’s a really good player though. Last year he played only 78 games and still ended up with basically a 5 WAR season. Had he stayed healthy he’s probably having a 6-7 WAR season and we’d probably be talking about a 2nd straight 7 WAR season this year following 3 5+ WAR seasons before that.

Just read something that Jim Bowden (take it for what it’s worth) says he believes the next Tucker deal will begin with a “6” as in $600+ million.

Vlad Guerrero Jr. just got a $500 million deal and while he’s younger than Tucker, I think Tucker is the better player. He’s somewhere between Vlad Jr. and Soto, while yes being a couple years older than either.

That he is, but going into his age 29 season he's not worth $400-500M.

Honestly unless we're talking 25 year old Albert level w/eight great years left, no player is worth $400-500M.

I discount almost 99% of what Bowden posts, he's the King of hyperbole.

Soto is vastly over paid as well.

+1 Bowden = idiot.

Note: Shoto's deal is vastly overstated. FAR less than Soto and Vlad. I think his interpreter gave him the advice to take it.
The trick is the CBA, which imputes an interest rate of around 5% on the deferred money for the future years. That's FAR less than the Dodgers' owners (Guggenheim Investments) will make on that deferred money, and far less than Shohei would have made if he took it up front. The 5% is for luxury tax calculation only - not to value the contract in the real world. Under the CBA, its value is $460M. In real life, the Dodgers' actual impact will be far less = closer to $300M.
Vald's was fully guaranteed $500M for 14 years.

What Ohtani wanted was to avoid those high Cali state income taxes.

From AI:
Shohei Ohtani is projected to save an estimated $90 to $100 million in California state income taxes by strategically deferring a large portion of his $700 million Los Angeles Dodgers contract


I can see a cap on deferred money coming, no way I see a hard salary cap thought.

These tax savings are based on a lot of assumptions. The article I read puts that number at $49M, and that assumes he later moves to a state with no income tax. But if he moves back to Japan, it won't be so smart. Folks often forget that, even in a state with 0 income tax, the "jock tax" taxes half of your income for the games you play in other states (only a few non-tax states). The wise move is to take it and invest it, and you'll make a lot more than you sacrifice.

[rockondlouie]

The one obvious player available this winter if the Cubs do not extend him is Kyle Tucker. He will be 29 at the start of next season. Not sure what the projections are to sign him, but lets say 10/$300M. Everyone good with that number. It will be a massive overpay by the end of the contract. Lets say he puts up 3 more years of 900 OPS and 3 years of 800 OPS ball before declining below 800. He is an average OF. He would provide the most certainty of production. He is a 25-30 HR guy. So not a monster slugger, but a great hitter with a high OBP. His numbers are really similar to a Matt Holliday. I would expect the first 6 years of his contract to look almost exactly like Matt Holliday. Holliday took a lot of criticism in this city...

I think their window to compete will open in 2027. As many people who want to trade Donovan on this board, the real move is to sign a player like Tucker, in particular if they can trade Arenado. Then have an IF of Donovan, Winn, Wetherholdt and Contreras (Preferably Burleson if Contreras will waive the NTC.) OF of Baez, if he comes through, Scott and Tucker. Catcher of Bernal with Herrera the back-up / DH. Baez is still striking out a ton in Springfield, so he is no certainty. Nathan Church who has good bat to ball skills and Burleson are insurance. If Wetherholdt, Donovan, Tucker and Herrera can put up 800-900 OPS numbers with good OBP numbers, they have a nucleus to compete. Then the complementary hitters, Winn, Scott, Burleson, Contreras fill out the line-up decently.

I think Tucker may be more in the $400-500 million range. I could see the Giants, Dodgers, Cubs, Yankees, etc. being involved. And who knows, there may be a surprise team. If enough gets involved it could surpass $500 million.

And yes, it will be a massive overpay. But that’s what the market sees now with Ohtani, Soto, Vlad Jr. etc.

Man this is getting crazy when a player like Tucker (nice player but.......c'mon not that great: career .276 .358 .516 .874) is going to get $400-500M.

It is, I think he’s a really good player though. Last year he played only 78 games and still ended up with basically a 5 WAR season. Had he stayed healthy he’s probably having a 6-7 WAR season and we’d probably be talking about a 2nd straight 7 WAR season this year following 3 5+ WAR seasons before that.

Just read something that Jim Bowden (take it for what it’s worth) says he believes the next Tucker deal will begin with a “6” as in $600+ million.

Vlad Guerrero Jr. just got a $500 million deal and while he’s younger than Tucker, I think Tucker is the better player. He’s somewhere between Vlad Jr. and Soto, while yes being a couple years older than either.

That he is, but going into his age 29 season he's not worth $400-500M.

Honestly unless we're talking 25 year old Albert level w/eight great years left, no player is worth $400-500M.

I discount almost 99% of what Bowden posts, he's the King of hyperbole.

Soto is vastly over paid as well.

+1 Bowden = idiot.

Note: Shoto's deal is vastly overstated. FAR less than Soto and Vlad. I think his interpreter gave him the advice to take it.
The trick is the CBA, which imputes an interest rate of around 5% on the deferred money for the future years. That's FAR less than the Dodgers' owners (Guggenheim Investments) will make on that deferred money, and far less than Shohei would have made if he took it up front. The 5% is for luxury tax calculation only - not to value the contract in the real world. Under the CBA, its value is $460M. In real life, the Dodgers' actual impact will be far less = closer to $300M.
Vald's was fully guaranteed $500M for 14 years.

What Ohtani wanted was to avoid those high Cali state income taxes.

From AI:
Shohei Ohtani is projected to save an estimated $90 to $100 million in California state income taxes by strategically deferring a large portion of his $700 million Los Angeles Dodgers contract


I can see a cap on deferred money coming, no way I see a hard salary cap thought.

These tax savings are based on a lot of assumptions. The article I read puts that number at $49M, and that assumes he later moves to a state with no income tax. But if he moves back to Japan, it won't be so smart. Folks often forget that, even in a state with 0 income tax, the "jock tax" taxes half of your income for the games you play in other states (only a few non-tax states). The wise move is to take it and invest it, and you'll make a lot more than you sacrifice.

Yea I just AI'd that question on Cali taxes saved.

He moves back to Japan for sure.

And you don't have to sell me (former stockbroker/commercial banker) on why he should've taken the money yearly and invested it, you're 100% right.

It's why you ALWAYS take the lump sum if you ever win the lottery!