How Much Herrera's Offense Makes a Difference

[Basil Shabazz]

If you know the stat WPA(Win Probability Added), then this should be pretty impactful. If you don't know WPA, here is the definition:

Win Probability Added (WPA) in MLB measures the extent to which a player's actions impact their team's chances of winning a game, taking into account the game's context (score, outs, runners on base, etc.). It essentially quantifies how "clutch" a player is, as it focuses on how much a player's performance changes the likelihood of their team winning.

Herrera's current WPA is 2.4. That ranks him 8th in MLB behind Ohtani 4.0, Judge 3.4, Alonso, 3.4, J. Woods 3.3, Raleigh 3.0, Tucker 2.9, and W. Smith 2.8. That is excellent company.

For a team void of much HR and gap power, Herrera was a pretty big deal for the 2025 Cards, and his absence has been felt. Our next highest WPA is Pozo at .8, Burleson .7, and Contreras .6.

Winn is a -1.2, Pages is a -1.1, and even Donny is a negative .3.

I don't know what position Herrera ends up playing, but his bat needs to be in the lineup daily. I hope he isn't a player that is out frequently w/ health issues.

Another interesting Herrera stat.

As Catcher - 54 PAs 6/15 .388 .444 .796 1.24
As DH - 116 PAs 2/21 .290 .371 .410 .781

[bccardsfan]

I was going to post something like this yesterday, without the in depth stats, thanks for that. There is a huge hole in the middle of the order without his bat in there. The catching vs. DH stats are interesting, but too small a sample size. Obviously he is more involved in the game when also playing in the field, but again, pretty small sample size...

[bccardsfan]

Also, WC is a good player, but not a great player. Nado is at best a good player as well, having once been a great player. The other guys are all a good supporting cast. I think when Herrera's bat is not in the middle of the order a lot of guys are pressing to fill the void. Burley had his hot streak, but is a middling batter. Noot has vanished. Winn would be great if he could just bat 7-9 in the order, not at the top. Donnie is a great role player, but will not carry your team. There is no Pujols..... IH is NOT Pujols, but he is the best we have....

[Cusecards]

Good points.
I think the Cards have the potential to be a division winner but they certainly have a ways to go.
And while I get frustrated on a day to day basis I’m trying to adjust my expectations and remember that this is an evaluation season.
I have my fingers crossed that Herrera is emerging as a core middle of the order bat.
Same possibility with Burleson.
Pretty shaky on Walker/Gorman.
More optimistic on Scott.
Excited about Crooks/Bernal and very excited about Wetherholt.
Time will tell.

[blackinkbiz]

Good points.
I think the Cards have the potential to be a division winner but they certainly have a ways to go.
And while I get frustrated on a day to day basis I’m trying to adjust my expectations and remember that this is an evaluation season.
I have my fingers crossed that Herrera is emerging as a core middle of the order bat.
Same possibility with Burleson.
Pretty shaky on Walker/Gorman.
More optimistic on Scott.
Excited about Crooks/Bernal and very excited about Wetherholt.
Time will tell.

If all the hitters are healthy and playing at least at their career norms with Gorman hitting 25 bombs and if Walker could just do what he did 2 years ago, this offense can hang with most clubs. Not the record-shattering pace the Cubs are on, but most clubs.

But ... Fedde and Mikolas falling off the map as we all suspected they would is a dagger. McGreevy's got to earn at least a 2 WAR from here till season's end, but then you're still counting on at least one of Pallante or Mikolas to find some better version of themself.

That's a lot of ifs and buts ... albeit it's possible. Anything can happen over 70 games including the Cubs falling back to earth as I just don't see how it's possible to keep up that pace.

They have at LEAST 3 players who's first half of 2025 are better than any previous full year's production. Like ... what? That just doesn't happen in MLB, especially not this day and age of the pitcher.

[sikeston bulldog2]

Good points.
I think the Cards have the potential to be a division winner but they certainly have a ways to go.
And while I get frustrated on a day to day basis I’m trying to adjust my expectations and remember that this is an evaluation season.
I have my fingers crossed that Herrera is emerging as a core middle of the order bat.
Same possibility with Burleson.
Pretty shaky on Walker/Gorman.
More optimistic on Scott.
Excited about Crooks/Bernal and very excited about Wetherholt.
Time will tell.

If all the hitters are healthy and playing at least at their career norms with Gorman hitting 25 bombs and if Walker could just do what he did 2 years ago, this offense can hang with most clubs. Not the record-shattering pace the Cubs are on, but most clubs.

But ... Fedde and Mikolas falling off the map as we all suspected they would is a dagger. McGreevy's got to earn at least a 2 WAR from here till season's end, but then you're still counting on at least one of Pallante or Mikolas to find some better version of themself.

That's a lot of ifs and buts ... albeit it's possible. Anything can happen over 70 games including the Cubs falling back to earth as I just don't see how it's possible to keep up that pace.

They have at LEAST 3 players who's first half of 2025 are better than any previous full year's production. Like ... what? That just doesn't happen in MLB, especially not this day and age of the pitcher.

Good points. But it does all come together on a winning year. Next year, after a great 2025, the Cubs will not repeat.

The fact that our team is as close to the blazing Cubs bodes well for the reset and hence the future.

[bccardsfan]

Good points.
I think the Cards have the potential to be a division winner but they certainly have a ways to go.
And while I get frustrated on a day to day basis I’m trying to adjust my expectations and remember that this is an evaluation season.
I have my fingers crossed that Herrera is emerging as a core middle of the order bat.
Same possibility with Burleson.
Pretty shaky on Walker/Gorman.
More optimistic on Scott.
Excited about Crooks/Bernal and very excited about Wetherholt.
Time will tell.

If all the hitters are healthy and playing at least at their career norms with Gorman hitting 25 bombs and if Walker could just do what he did 2 years ago, this offense can hang with most clubs. Not the record-shattering pace the Cubs are on, but most clubs.

But ... Fedde and Mikolas falling off the map as we all suspected they would is a dagger. McGreevy's got to earn at least a 2 WAR from here till season's end, but then you're still counting on at least one of Pallante or Mikolas to find some better version of themself.

That's a lot of ifs and buts ... albeit it's possible. Anything can happen over 70 games including the Cubs falling back to earth as I just don't see how it's possible to keep up that pace.

They have at LEAST 3 players who's first half of 2025 are better than any previous full year's production. Like ... what? That just doesn't happen in MLB, especially not this day and age of the pitcher.

We were focusing on the offense and Herrera'a bat in the middle, but I totally agree with you on pitching. Plus the BP blew at least 7 or 8 games we had basically in the win column before it tightened up. Now parts of it are unraveling again. We have no SP depth and only two or at most three reliable starters at any given time. This team is not that far away from being pretty good. Hopefully the new brain trust can get them over the hump if ownership lets them do what they want. Get a really good manager, and continue improving the development system, and make trades. Maybe sign one or two guys, but ownership is not going to buy any $20M players. Not happening.

[Alex Reyes Cy Young]

Excellent post!

[Talkin' Baseball]

Good points.
I think the Cards have the potential to be a division winner but they certainly have a ways to go.
And while I get frustrated on a day to day basis I’m trying to adjust my expectations and remember that this is an evaluation season.
I have my fingers crossed that Herrera is emerging as a core middle of the order bat.
Same possibility with Burleson.
Pretty shaky on Walker/Gorman.
More optimistic on Scott.
Excited about Crooks/Bernal and very excited about Wetherholt.
Time will tell.

If all the hitters are healthy and playing at least at their career norms with Gorman hitting 25 bombs and if Walker could just do what he did 2 years ago, this offense can hang with most clubs. Not the record-shattering pace the Cubs are on, but most clubs.

But ... Fedde and Mikolas falling off the map as we all suspected they would is a dagger. McGreevy's got to earn at least a 2 WAR from here till season's end, but then you're still counting on at least one of Pallante or Mikolas to find some better version of themself.

That's a lot of ifs and buts ... albeit it's possible. Anything can happen over 70 games including the Cubs falling back to earth as I just don't see how it's possible to keep up that pace.

They have at LEAST 3 players who's first half of 2025 are better than any previous full year's production. Like ... what? That just doesn't happen in MLB, especially not this day and age of the pitcher.

Good points. But it does all come together on a winning year. Next year, after a great 2025, the Cubs will not repeat.

The fact that our team is as close to the blazing Cubs bodes well for the reset and hence the future.

I agree with this.

[Jatalk]

If you know the stat WPA(Win Probability Added), then this should be pretty impactful. If you don't know WPA, here is the definition:

Win Probability Added (WPA) in MLB measures the extent to which a player's actions impact their team's chances of winning a game, taking into account the game's context (score, outs, runners on base, etc.). It essentially quantifies how "clutch" a player is, as it focuses on how much a player's performance changes the likelihood of their team winning.

Herrera's current WPA is 2.4. That ranks him 8th in MLB behind Ohtani 4.0, Judge 3.4, Alonso, 3.4, J. Woods 3.3, Raleigh 3.0, Tucker 2.9, and W. Smith 2.8. That is excellent company.

For a team void of much HR and gap power, Herrera was a pretty big deal for the 2025 Cards, and his absence has been felt. Our next highest WPA is Pozo at .8, Burleson .7, and Contreras .6.

Winn is a -1.2, Pages is a -1.1, and even Donny is a negative .3.

I don't know what position Herrera ends up playing, but his bat needs to be in the lineup daily. I hope he isn't a player that is out frequently w/ health issues.

Another interesting Herrera stat.

As Catcher - 54 PAs 6/15 .388 .444 .796 1.24
As DH - 116 PAs 2/21 .290 .371 .410 .781

Thanks for the info. Looking at how WPA is calculated it appears less subjective than WAR for example. WPA is a good stat to monitor by player. I didn’t know it existed

[reson8]

Herrera has hit well in a couple of small sample sizes between IL stints. Hopefully he's not another Tyler O'Neill. If he can stay healthy we can see what he can do over an extended stretch.

[rockondlouie]

Sure hope C. Bloom instructs his new manager/coaches to give him an OF'ers glove and (if retained) has J. Jay work w/him all winter and in STing.

I've said since last season they need to convert him into a LFer.

Sure hope it happens and he does no worse than makes the routine plays.

Hererra in the OF would give them their first impact OF bat since M. Holliday.

[Talkin' Baseball]

Sure hope C. Bloom instructs his new manager/coaches to give him an OF'ers glove and (if retained) has J. Jay work w/him all winter and in STing.

I've said since last season they need to convert him into a LFer.

Sure hope it happens and he does no worse than makes the routine plays.

Hererra in the OF would give them their first impact OF bat since M. Holliday.

Preach it brother!

[rockondlouie]

Sure hope C. Bloom instructs his new manager/coaches to give him an OF'ers glove and (if retained) has J. Jay work w/him all winter and in STing.

I've said since last season they need to convert him into a LFer.

Sure hope it happens and he does no worse than makes the routine plays.

Hererra in the OF would give them their first impact OF bat since M. Holliday.

Preach it brother!

I remember when I posted this thought last year TB one of the guys on here called me crazy!

Then he saw him throw and PM'd me with: "You were right"

Look at the guys who we've seen in LF....from G. Luzinski to L. Smith to TGKS (also a former horrible catcher)!

If they can do it, then I'd bet Hererra could too.

[scoutyjones2]

If you know the stat WPA(Win Probability Added), then this should be pretty impactful. If you don't know WPA, here is the definition:

Win Probability Added (WPA) in MLB measures the extent to which a player's actions impact their team's chances of winning a game, taking into account the game's context (score, outs, runners on base, etc.). It essentially quantifies how "clutch" a player is, as it focuses on how much a player's performance changes the likelihood of their team winning.

Herrera's current WPA is 2.4. That ranks him 8th in MLB behind Ohtani 4.0, Judge 3.4, Alonso, 3.4, J. Woods 3.3, Raleigh 3.0, Tucker 2.9, and W. Smith 2.8. That is excellent company.

For a team void of much HR and gap power, Herrera was a pretty big deal for the 2025 Cards, and his absence has been felt. Our next highest WPA is Pozo at .8, Burleson .7, and Contreras .6.

Winn is a -1.2, Pages is a -1.1, and even Donny is a negative .3.

I don't know what position Herrera ends up playing, but his bat needs to be in the lineup daily. I hope he isn't a player that is out frequently w/ health issues.

Another interesting Herrera stat.

As Catcher - 54 PAs 6/15 .388 .444 .796 1.24
As DH - 116 PAs 2/21 .290 .371 .410 .781

Super small sample size. DH only


Gets injured running every 22 games

[imadangman]

Herrera seems to be a needed bat. Hopefully he doesn't miss a lot of time regularly like you say. Going forward, who is the biggest bat alongside him. Contreras another year older? Hopefully Josh Baez puts himself in the category. Baez and Herrera could become the two most important RH hitters in our lineup.