Carbonneau Draft Grades: Refrigerator Material

[John Cocktoastin]

Just some instant analysis. As we already know, the Blues report card looks really good. I threw the kitchen sink in here, so I know some opinions are worth more than others...

PRONMAN
19. St. Louis Blues: Justin Carbonneau, RW, Blainville-Boisbriand Armada (QMJHL)

November 25, 2006 | 6′ 1″ | 192 pounds

Tier: Bubble top and middle of the lineup player

Player comparable: Dylan Holloway

Analysis: Carbonneau has been a top player in the QMJHL. He’s a very strong skater and puck handler who can beat defenders one-on-one at full flight. He’s a physically developed winger who plays hard and can win puck battles fairly often. His style of play is highly translatable to the NHL game with the pace and effort in his shifts. He has a great shot and is often a threat to score from the faceoff dots with his one-timer. The one issue with Carbonneau is his decision-making at times is questionable, and I wouldn’t call him a natural playmaker. He projects as a top-six winger.

Pick grade: B+

Thoughts on the pick: Carbonneau is a highly skilled, hard-to-play against winger who projects as a top-six forward. He’s the last skater remaining of my top group of players, as the draft drops off a bit at this point, and the Blues get a valuable piece for the future.

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BLEACHER REPORT

19. St. Louis Blues: Justin Carbonneau, RW, Blainville-Boisbriand Armada (QMJHL)
19 of 32
2025 NHL Draft
Bruce Bennett/Getty Images
Strengths: Playmaking, vision, precise shot

Weaknesses: Does too much sometimes

B/R Rank: 12

Pick Grade: A

Analysis: The St. Louis Blues snagging Justin Carbonneau at 19th is a solid get. All aspects of his offense are valuable—his shot is great, his instincts and vision are high-end, and he can use that vision to set up teammates. The way he approaches the game will make him a great addition to the Blues' prospect pool.

There are a lot of players in this year's first round who have high potential when it comes to creative playmaking and dynamic offense, and the No. 1 thing we want to see from them moving forward is maturity concerning decision-making.

Carbonneau is one of those players. He's a threat in every area of the ice, with the puck and without it. His combination of vision and playmaking abilities, alongside his quick release, makes him dangerous offensively. His skating speed and the way he uses it to chase loose pucks or burn opponents make him dangerous defensively.

The problem—again, a common one—is that he can try to do it all himself. And this is so often where mistakes happen. When you're only relying on yourself, you miss opportunities. You turn the puck over. You get intercepted by an opponent who may not have been an issue if you'd made a pass moments before.

If Carbonneau can rein in his desire to do it by himself and utilize his playmaking abilities and vision more to find teammates and set them up, he'll have no trouble in the NHL.

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NHL.COM (Bolded a nice blurb below)

19. St. Louis Blues -- Justin Carbonneau, RW, Blainville-Boisbriand (QMJHL)
NHL Central Scouting: No. 16 (North American skaters)
In his third season in the Quebec Maritimes Junior Hockey League, the right-handed shot was second in the league with 89 points and tied for second with 46 goals and 16 power-play goals in 62 games. Carbonneau (6-1, 205) is a natural goal-scorer with an excellent release and is capable of impacting the game in many ways because of his poise and deception with the puck on his stick. The 18-year-old finishes checks and is agile on his edges in tight spaces.

NHL.com analysis: Carbonneau is tailor-made to the identity the Blues like to play with: Big, strong and skilled. Carbonneau grew up playing linebacker and running back in football, and brings that same physical, attacking mindset to the ice. The Blues have arguably the strongest group of prospects in the NHL, with an NHL-best nine of them playing in the 2025 IIHF World Junior Championship. A couple of them will graduate to the pro hockey full-time next season, but adding a high-end forward like Carbonneau keeps the prospect pipeline well-stocked.

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ESPN

How he fits: Carbonneau is a high-upside, dual-threat player who drives the middle of the ice and has an excellent shot. Off the puck, he finds quiet areas on the inside of the ice and takes advantage of scoring opportunities. Carbonneau has the size and physicality to become a power forward in the NHL, and should fit nicely on the second line and first power-play unit.

He's a raw player who will need to develop his skating to take advantage of his offensive toolbox, but the upside is very high. Carbonneau's blend of size, fearless play, creativity and elite shooting ability bode well for his NHL projection. If the Blues are patient, Carbonneau should become a quality power forward in three to four years.

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FOR THE WIN

19. St. Louis Blues: F Justin Carbonneau, Blainville-Boisbriand Armada
Jun 27, 2025; Los Angeles, California, USA; Justin Carbonneau is selected as the 19th overall pick to the St. Louis Blues in the first round of the 2025 NHL Draft at Peacock Theater. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-Imagn Images
Carbonneau has quite the offensive touch and bills as a power forward at the NHL game. NHL scouts like Carbonneau's offensive skills a lot, which makes this a nice value pick for the Blues, as he has the tools to grade out as a really solid and creative offensive play driver.

Grade: B+

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FLOHOCKEY (#13 on this list)

No. 19 St. Louis Blues Select: Justin Carbonneau, RW, Blainville Boisbriand Armada
Scouting Report
A 6-foot-1 power winger with enough edge to make him difficult to play against, Carbonneau had a highly-productive season. He scored 46 goals in 62 games, showing off solid finish and good hands for a more rugged player. He’s hard to knock off pucks and can be a handful on the forecheck. There are questions about whether the offense is particularly high end, which is fair, but there’s enough to like there to believe he could be a middle-six scorer as he progresses.

Instant Analysis
One of my favorite players in the draft, Carbonneau mixes skill with some grit. He's a strong young man who is hard to play against. I thought the Blues would go with defense here, but with Carbonneau still on the board it was a pick they had to make. He's such a good fit for the team that selected him in that he fits the Blues identity and I think he could have a relatively short timeline to the NHL because of his physical maturity. He was listed No. 13 on my Top 100.

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[zamadoo]

he could have a relatively short timeline to the NHL because of his physical maturity.

I've considered this possibility as well. He looks like he might be ready for pro hockey right now. I'm not sure another year of Jrs will help his game much, but haven't heard about him going to college or anything.

Make the team out of camp?

[FunSeeker]

Thanks for those articles on him. He sounds like he will be a great Blue. Built like Jake (linebacker body), with skills like Hollywood, good combo.

[John Cocktoastin]

Not a draft grade, but grading his abilities for the draft by Wheeler. That shot is something else. To think that will be unleashed along with Snuggerud's, well...

Best shots
This draft class doesn’t have any big-time shooters, and trying to find names for this category underscored that. Last year’s class had snipers such as Cole Eiserman and Justin Poirier, and defensemen such as Zayne Parekh and Carter Yakemchuk who could really shoot it. Even Tij Iginla had a noteworthy shot. None of the players in this class have that kind of pop off the blade, with Schmidt maybe being the closest thing when he really rocks it back into his pocket and lets it rip.

1. Cameron Schmidt
2. Justin Carbonneau
3. Anton Frondell
4. Jakob Ihs-Wozniak
5. Kashawn Aitcheson
6. Jack Murtagh
7. Porter Martone
8. Bryce Pickford
9. Michael Misa

Honorable mentions: Daniil Prokhorov, Emile Guite, Charlie Trethewey, Cooper Simpson, Brent Solomon, Brady Martin, Carter Bear

Best hands
They call Ryker Lee “The Wizard,” and he lives up to the name, with the slickest hands and puck skill that I watched in this draft from an ankle-breaking/in-a-phone-booth/one-on-one perspective. Jake O’Brien is the next closest in terms of touch and feel on the puck. L.J. Mooney’s hands are particularly impressive for how they blend in with his skating and agility, though, too. He finds his way out of trouble and through holes better than anyone in the class. There are a couple of big, strong wingers whose hands I wanted to draw attention to in Justin Carbonneau and Porter Martone as well. Those two love the toe drag and execute it very skillfully. Fondrk is a sneaky one, too. His teammates give his skill level a lot of love, and if he’d been healthy this year, I think it would have been more of a talking point.

1. Ryker Lee
2. Jake O’Brien
3. L.J. Mooney
4. Justin Carbonneau
5. James Hagens
6. Porter Martone
7. Alexander Zharovsky
8. Michael Misa
9. Conrad Fondrk
10. Ivan Ryabkin

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[Harry York 37]

Carbonneau looks special. I love watching him skate in the clips from yesterday and this morning. He seems to sit very low all the time, and when he is making a pivot, he seems to spread or splay them even more to lower his center of gravity and allow him an even stronger position to make a quick and explosive move. He cut through those QMJHL boys like a waterbug who hits the gym and eats right.
That strength in his legs, along with his top-notch stickhandling skills makes him a wonderful threat on the rush. Add to that the "Second best shot" in his class..

I like how delighted and relaxed DA was in explaining the pick and what the future night hold for him. I do feel that much of Doug's demeanor was simply him enjoying his last draft day as a GM. He mentioned the Hitchcock quote about which side of the red line belongs entirely to the Coach.. We will surely miss Mr. Armstrong.

[DawgDad]

I enjoy the assessments. The grades are utterly stupid in concept.

[General]

Huge thanks for putting this together John. Better than anything we’d see in the local paper by a mile.

I like that his main weakness is he tries to do too much. To me that means he either a) is the best player on his teams and feels he has to do more so he’ll be much better when put with NHL players or b) he’s just impatient or hyper competitive, both of which would have a good chance of mellowing a bit as he matures.

I kinda wish the best available was a C or RHD but this kid looks like a great pick.

[the miracle]

Definitely seems like a guy that will do well in Monty's system.

[STL fan in MN]

I enjoy the assessments. The grades are utterly stupid in concept.

That’s fair. And true. While I like the Carbonneau pick, any grades done the day after are essentially meaningless. He was taken at 19. So anyone that had him ranked 1-18 would consider him a steal. A+! By comparison, a pick like TJ Oshie years ago would’ve been panned as brain dead and stupid. F!

He’s a good prospect but we’ll know more in a year or two.

[John Cocktoastin]

I completely agree with and get the draft grade pushback. I should have stated that at the beginning. Just putting it out there...

[DawgDad]

I completely agree with and get the draft grade pushback. I should have stated that at the beginning. Just putting it out there...

Oh, nothing personal! Appreciate the posts!

[seattleblue]

In early April this is the kid that I decided I wanted once the Blues had changed their draft position.

Coveted him, can't believe this happened last night

[Frank Underwood]

I enjoy the assessments. The grades are utterly stupid in concept.

That’s fair. And true. While I like the Carbonneau pick, any grades done the day after are essentially meaningless. He was taken at 19. So anyone that had him ranked 1-18 would consider him a steal. A+! By comparison, a pick like TJ Oshie years ago would’ve been panned as brain dead and stupid. F!

He’s a good prospect but we’ll know more in a year or two.

A few of us were here the day they picked Oshie! What an epic forum meltdown! ‘We picked a roller hockey player? What are these idiots doing?’

[STL fan in MN]

I enjoy the assessments. The grades are utterly stupid in concept.

That’s fair. And true. While I like the Carbonneau pick, any grades done the day after are essentially meaningless. He was taken at 19. So anyone that had him ranked 1-18 would consider him a steal. A+! By comparison, a pick like TJ Oshie years ago would’ve been panned as brain dead and stupid. F!

He’s a good prospect but we’ll know more in a year or two.

A few of us were here the day they picked Oshie! What an epic forum meltdown! ‘We picked a roller hockey player? What are these idiots doing?’

I recall that. And remember the tv broadcast where it took them 30-45 seconds for them to even find a pic/video of Oshie to show. Think they called him Tim instead of TJ too…it was complete pandemonium.

Not too long after it was learned Edmonton was primed to take him with the very next pick. Had an Oshie Oilers jersey all ready for him and they had to shove it back under the table since we got him first.

[DawgDad]

he could have a relatively short timeline to the NHL because of his physical maturity.

I've considered this possibility as well. He looks like he might be ready for pro hockey right now. I'm not sure another year of Jrs will help his game much, but haven't heard about him going to college or anything.

Make the team out of camp?

There's no room, even if that was in the cards! Is he going to beat out Bolduc or Snuggerud? No! He does need a change of scenery, a step up.

It highlights a potential [good] problem, too many good quality young wingers plus Dvorsky (and Dean?). A year out the Blues might have Kaskimaki, Stenberg, Peterson, Pekarsic, and Carbonneau pounding on the door, and Dvorsky still working his way into a solid top-6 role. It's not just numbers, they will need need to compete with the team's desire and ability to ice a solid winning playoff team, not a developmental circus.

There certainly appears to be trades in the offing, now or later. Still, some of these guys are going to have a longer runway than they would have had a year or two ago.

[stljrs]

Wheeler also gave him honorable mention for Strongest. Blues took BPA no doubt. That takes so much discipline when a RD like Hensler was sitting there and that’s a team need.