Back to 8 games above .500

[imadangman]

Back to our high watermark. So as long as we split or win both of these next two games, we'll be leaving this cub series either at or above our high watermark.

That seems like a very positive picture of the way the season stands right now, during what might be the most crucial stretch of games as far as what we'll do at the deadline. Time will tell what happens. Right now, the team continues to define itself as a group that can gather themselves and keep moving forward after some tough games. It's no guarantee next year would be the same. TLR said every team comes to ST with a blank slate, and the onus is on the team to create the identity for that season carrying nothing over from the last season.

[JDW]

Yeah, just look at the Orioles. Were pretty good last year, with good young players and prospects, so things trending well for them to begin the 2025 season ...................... and plop.

Anytime you have a season going better than was the expectation, and you find yourselves in the Cardinals current position, you don't punt on the season. This years deadline for the Cards has so far diverged from what was the most common expectation. If they are still in the hunt 2 weeks from now, you should be net buyers imo.
Doesn't mean you can't still trade off Fedde and replace with McGreevy, or trade off Walker for a BP guy and/or a prospect, but currently it'd be pretty hard to trade away Arenado or Helsley even if you think longer term that'd be the smart thing to do.

[sikeston bulldog2]

Yeah, just look at the Orioles. Were pretty good last year, with good young players and prospects, so things trending well for them to begin the 2025 season ...................... and plop.

Anytime you have a season going better than was the expectation, and you find yourselves in the Cardinals current position, you don't punt on the season. This years deadline for the Cards has so far diverged from what was the most common expectation. If they are still in the hunt 2 weeks from now, you should be net buyers imo.
Doesn't mean you can't still trade off Fedde and replace with McGreevy, or trade off Walker for a BP guy and/or a prospect, but currently it'd be pretty hard to trade away Arenado or Helsley even if you think longer term that'd be the smart thing to do.

They need to trade Helsley Matz and Mik. That 2-3 talented players in return. We don’t get the talent we don’t make the move. We hold the want.

Saves 30M, and sets the stage for one big off season signing.

[imadangman]

Yeah, just look at the Orioles. Were pretty good last year, with good young players and prospects, so things trending well for them to begin the 2025 season ...................... and plop.

Anytime you have a season going better than was the expectation, and you find yourselves in the Cardinals current position, you don't punt on the season. This years deadline for the Cards has so far diverged from what was the most common expectation. If they are still in the hunt 2 weeks from now, you should be net buyers imo.
Doesn't mean you can't still trade off Fedde and replace with McGreevy, or trade off Walker for a BP guy and/or a prospect, but currently it'd be pretty hard to trade away Arenado or Helsley even if you think longer term that'd be the smart thing to do.

They need to trade Helsley Matz and Mik. That 2-3 talented players in return. We don’t get the talent we don’t make the move. We hold the want.

Saves 30M, and sets the stage for one big off season signing.

I mean Matz is a guy that's been crucial in this. Trade him and the bullpen just lost a key cog. It depends on the return I guess. If the team is still playing well how can you make these types of trades.

[imadangman]

Yeah, just look at the Orioles. Were pretty good last year, with good young players and prospects, so things trending well for them to begin the 2025 season ...................... and plop.

Anytime you have a season going better than was the expectation, and you find yourselves in the Cardinals current position, you don't punt on the season. This years deadline for the Cards has so far diverged from what was the most common expectation. If they are still in the hunt 2 weeks from now, you should be net buyers imo.
Doesn't mean you can't still trade off Fedde and replace with McGreevy, or trade off Walker for a BP guy and/or a prospect, but currently it'd be pretty hard to trade away Arenado or Helsley even if you think longer term that'd be the smart thing to do.

I went back and looked at the 2022 Orioles. That's the team that traded Trey Mancini because they were "a year early." I went back and looked at they were 1-2 games above .500 at the deadline.

If the Cardinals find themselves ~10 games above .500, what's the precedent of teams that have sold at the deadline while being 10 games above .500?

[sikeston bulldog2]

Yeah, just look at the Orioles. Were pretty good last year, with good young players and prospects, so things trending well for them to begin the 2025 season ...................... and plop.

Anytime you have a season going better than was the expectation, and you find yourselves in the Cardinals current position, you don't punt on the season. This years deadline for the Cards has so far diverged from what was the most common expectation. If they are still in the hunt 2 weeks from now, you should be net buyers imo.
Doesn't mean you can't still trade off Fedde and replace with McGreevy, or trade off Walker for a BP guy and/or a prospect, but currently it'd be pretty hard to trade away Arenado or Helsley even if you think longer term that'd be the smart thing to do.

They need to trade Helsley Matz and Mik. That 2-3 talented players in return. We don’t get the talent we don’t make the move. We hold the want.

Saves 30M, and sets the stage for one big off season signing.

I mean Matz is a guy that's been crucial in this. Trade him and the bullpen just lost a key cog. It depends on the return I guess. If the team is still playing well how can you make these types of trades.

Money. They will get a return BP or inside the team help to fill in for Matz. He is on an expiring contract. Better to get a little than to get nothing.

[thetank2]

Yeah, just look at the Orioles. Were pretty good last year, with good young players and prospects, so things trending well for them to begin the 2025 season ...................... and plop.

Anytime you have a season going better than was the expectation, and you find yourselves in the Cardinals current position, you don't punt on the season. This years deadline for the Cards has so far diverged from what was the most common expectation. If they are still in the hunt 2 weeks from now, you should be net buyers imo.
Doesn't mean you can't still trade off Fedde and replace with McGreevy, or trade off Walker for a BP guy and/or a prospect, but currently it'd be pretty hard to trade away Arenado or Helsley even if you think longer term that'd be the smart thing to do.

They need to trade Helsley Matz and Mik. That 2-3 talented players in return. We don’t get the talent we don’t make the move. We hold the want.

Saves 30M, and sets the stage for one big off season signing.

I doubt we get anything worth while for those players. Has to be a top pitching prospect.

[sikeston bulldog2]

Yeah, just look at the Orioles. Were pretty good last year, with good young players and prospects, so things trending well for them to begin the 2025 season ...................... and plop.

Anytime you have a season going better than was the expectation, and you find yourselves in the Cardinals current position, you don't punt on the season. This years deadline for the Cards has so far diverged from what was the most common expectation. If they are still in the hunt 2 weeks from now, you should be net buyers imo.
Doesn't mean you can't still trade off Fedde and replace with McGreevy, or trade off Walker for a BP guy and/or a prospect, but currently it'd be pretty hard to trade away Arenado or Helsley even if you think longer term that'd be the smart thing to do.

They need to trade Helsley Matz and Mik. That 2-3 talented players in return. We don’t get the talent we don’t make the move. We hold the want.

Saves 30M, and sets the stage for one big off season signing.

I doubt we get anything worth while for those players. Has to be a top pitching prospect.

We are losing these players anyway. We are in a reset. Yes, we are doing good. That’s what a reset does optimally, forces cream to top. Ours has been really good. Not much to add. That’s the good news. Couple moves.

[jbrach]

Yeah, just look at the Orioles. Were pretty good last year, with good young players and prospects, so things trending well for them to begin the 2025 season ...................... and plop.

Anytime you have a season going better than was the expectation, and you find yourselves in the Cardinals current position, you don't punt on the season. This years deadline for the Cards has so far diverged from what was the most common expectation. If they are still in the hunt 2 weeks from now, you should be net buyers imo.
Doesn't mean you can't still trade off Fedde and replace with McGreevy, or trade off Walker for a BP guy and/or a prospect, but currently it'd be pretty hard to trade away Arenado or Helsley even if you think longer term that'd be the smart thing to do.

I went back and looked at the 2022 Orioles. That's the team that traded Trey Mancini because they were "a year early." I went back and looked at they were 1-2 games above .500 at the deadline.

If the Cardinals find themselves ~10 games above .500, what's the precedent of teams that have sold at the deadline while being 10 games above .500?

you can trade veterans and better and still get a good return..say they traded fedde and put Mcgreevy in the rotation...same goes for Mikolas and Helesley who has been poor so far

[1_12_1968]

Yeah, just look at the Orioles. Were pretty good last year, with good young players and prospects, so things trending well for them to begin the 2025 season ...................... and plop.

Anytime you have a season going better than was the expectation, and you find yourselves in the Cardinals current position, you don't punt on the season. This years deadline for the Cards has so far diverged from what was the most common expectation. If they are still in the hunt 2 weeks from now, you should be net buyers imo.
Doesn't mean you can't still trade off Fedde and replace with McGreevy, or trade off Walker for a BP guy and/or a prospect, but currently it'd be pretty hard to trade away Arenado or Helsley even if you think longer term that'd be the smart thing to do.

They need to trade Helsley Matz and Mik. That 2-3 talented players in return. We don’t get the talent we don’t make the move. We hold the want.

Saves 30M, and sets the stage for one big off season signing.

I doubt we get anything worth while for those players. Has to be a top pitching prospect.

We are losing these players anyway. We are in a reset. Yes, we are doing good. That’s what a reset does optimally, forces cream to top. Ours has been really good. Not much to add. That’s the good news. Couple moves.

Graceful reset, I still want to make the playoffs.

[ICCFIM2]

Yeah, just look at the Orioles. Were pretty good last year, with good young players and prospects, so things trending well for them to begin the 2025 season ...................... and plop.

Anytime you have a season going better than was the expectation, and you find yourselves in the Cardinals current position, you don't punt on the season. This years deadline for the Cards has so far diverged from what was the most common expectation. If they are still in the hunt 2 weeks from now, you should be net buyers imo.
Doesn't mean you can't still trade off Fedde and replace with McGreevy, or trade off Walker for a BP guy and/or a prospect, but currently it'd be pretty hard to trade away Arenado or Helsley even if you think longer term that'd be the smart thing to do.

They need to trade Helsley Matz and Mik. That 2-3 talented players in return. We don’t get the talent we don’t make the move. We hold the want.

Saves 30M, and sets the stage for one big off season signing.

I doubt we get anything worth while for those players. Has to be a top pitching prospect.

We are losing these players anyway. We are in a reset. Yes, we are doing good. That’s what a reset does optimally, forces cream to top. Ours has been really good. Not much to add. That’s the good news. Couple moves.

Mikolas has been clear he won't waive the NTC. Matz they could probably deal and not significantly hurt their chances. He is probably the guy to trade. They can replace his arm in the pen. If they put McGreevy in the pen for Fedde, they do not have any back-up SP if they also trade Matz. So you can trade one of them. Helsley, while he has not been lights out, they need the guy to have a chance. This team is gelling and I think they deserve a shot to see how far they can go. You can also kill team spirit if you sell out. The Cards have a soft July schedule. If they can decimate the soft teams in July, they have a decent chance of getting to 15-16 games over 500 by the trade deadline. Pretty tough schedule in September.

If they are going to trade some expiring contracts, perhaps they can get someone to give up pitching for Walker. I am thinking something like will the A's give us Luis Morales who is their #4 prospect plus one of their cost controlled relievers for Walker and we will have to add something as well. That allows the Cards to trade Matz and maybe Fedde and still be contending this year. Then just give Helsley a QO and see what happens.

[sikeston bulldog2]

Back to our high watermark. So as long as we split or win both of these next two games, we'll be leaving this cub series either at or above our high watermark.

That seems like a very positive picture of the way the season stands right now, during what might be the most crucial stretch of games as far as what we'll do at the deadline. Time will tell what happens. Right now, the team continues to define itself as a group that can gather themselves and keep moving forward after some tough games. It's no guarantee next year would be the same. TLR said every team comes to ST with a blank slate, and the onus is on the team to create the identity for that season carrying nothing over from the last season.

Seven.

[cardstatman]

If they were selling, it would be Fedde, Matz, Maton, Helsley, Hampson.

MIkolas is not likely to move because of his NTC.

Unless they collapse over the next month, they won't be selling.

They could also consider extending some of those guys if the player would agree to a reasonable rate and term. IMHO, Helsley and Maton would be nice to keep but Helsley may be too expensive. They are local guys so you hope for a small discount.

Maton has only earned $15M in his entire career, I think. Oddly, his biggest contract was with Tampa Bay. How could he turn down a $21M/3yr guaranteed extention offer right now knowing he could get injured in the next 2 months and lose it all?

[scoutyjones2]

Back to our high watermark. So as long as we split or win both of these next two games, we'll be leaving this cub series either at or above our high watermark.

That seems like a very positive picture of the way the season stands right now, during what might be the most crucial stretch of games as far as what we'll do at the deadline. Time will tell what happens. Right now, the team continues to define itself as a group that can gather themselves and keep moving forward after some tough games. It's no guarantee next year would be the same. TLR said every team comes to ST with a blank slate, and the onus is on the team to create the identity for that season carrying nothing over from the last season.

Math is hard

[rightthinker4]

Making the playoffs while in a rebuild would be quite an accomplishment. If the Cardinals don’t win the Central, it will probably take 92+ wins to get a wildcard spot.

[CorneliusWolfe]

Making the playoffs while in a rebuild would be quite an accomplishment. If the Cardinals don’t win the Central, it will probably take 92+ wins to get a wildcard spot.

That's what I'm thinking. I don't see why there can't be a balance between continuing with the youth movement and maintaining the currently competitive team. Like someone else stated, if you're not going to get a big prospect haul, then try to win with what you have and keep developing what you have. Some counter that getting something is better than nothing. Most lottery tickets amount to nothing, but continuing to win and competing for the playoffs is kind of fun.