Is the farm developing enough talent to support

[Futuregm2]

Catcher - set with Pages/Pozo/Herrera/Crooks/Bernal
1B - set for several years with Contreras
2B - set with Donovan/Gorman/Wetherholt
SS - set with Winn
3B - set with Arenado for several years. If traded,
then Wetherholt or Saggese
LF - not set
CF - set with Scott II
RF - not set

The main holes are corner outfielders if Noot and Walker don’t get it going. Only hope internally right now could be Davis, Baez, or perhaps converting Herrera, Wetherholt, or Saggese to OF. Otherwise, trade for a proven corner outfielder.

They are “set” at 3B with Arenado if you’re ok with mediocrity (at best). Among 19 qualified 3B he ranks 15th in fWAR, 12th in batting average, 15th in OBP%, 16th in SLG%, and 16th in OPS. They should be looking to get rid of him.

[Banner29]

Up until Bloom took over no, it’s not gonna be a quick fix. Having 2 top 10 picks in the system in about a month will certainly help however there’s still a lot of work to do. But he built superb systems for 2 different teams there’s no reason to believe he won’t build one here.

Bloom's Red Sox are still below .500 2 years after leaving them.

I will no longer debate this with you. You can’t stand the guy and you want him to fail miserably. All because hes simply replacing Mo.


You simply can’t reason with that mentality

[Cranny]

Up until Bloom took over no, it’s not gonna be a quick fix. Having 2 top 10 picks in the system in about a month will certainly help however there’s still a lot of work to do. But he built superb systems for 2 different teams there’s no reason to believe he won’t build one here.

Bloom's Red Sox are still below .500 2 years after leaving them.

I will no longer debate this with you. You can’t stand the guy and you want him to fail miserably. All because hes simply replacing Mo.


You simply can’t reason with that mentality

He did indeed do a fine job with the systems at both
TB and Boston. He and Cerfolio should make a great team.

[thetank2]

Up until Bloom took over no, it’s not gonna be a quick fix. Having 2 top 10 picks in the system in about a month will certainly help however there’s still a lot of work to do. But he built superb systems for 2 different teams there’s no reason to believe he won’t build one here.

Bloom's Red Sox are still below .500 2 years after leaving them.

I will no longer debate this with you. You can’t stand the guy and you want him to fail miserably. All because hes simply replacing Mo.


You simply can’t reason with that mentality

I don't want him to fail at all. I just think he is not a Saviour. He will have a big task of replacing starters next season.

[Futuregm2]

Up until Bloom took over no, it’s not gonna be a quick fix. Having 2 top 10 picks in the system in about a month will certainly help however there’s still a lot of work to do. But he built superb systems for 2 different teams there’s no reason to believe he won’t build one here.

Bloom's Red Sox are still below .500 2 years after leaving them.

I will no longer debate this with you. You can’t stand the guy and you want him to fail miserably. All because hes simply replacing Mo.


You simply can’t reason with that mentality

I don't want him to fail at all. I just think he is not a Saviour. He will have a big task of replacing starters next season.

Which starters?

We’re only losing Mikolas and Fedde. They’re easily replaced next year with McGreevy and Mathews.

[thetank2]

Up until Bloom took over no, it’s not gonna be a quick fix. Having 2 top 10 picks in the system in about a month will certainly help however there’s still a lot of work to do. But he built superb systems for 2 different teams there’s no reason to believe he won’t build one here.

Bloom's Red Sox are still below .500 2 years after leaving them.

I will no longer debate this with you. You can’t stand the guy and you want him to fail miserably. All because hes simply replacing Mo.


You simply can’t reason with that mentality

He did indeed do a fine job with the systems at both
TB and Boston. He and Cerfolio should make a great team.

He finished last 3 times with Boston in 4 years. 2 seasons leaving the Sox they are below .500.

I'm surprised posters here don't say we hired Bloom because DeWitt needed to save on GM's salaries.

If he replaces Mikolas's 30 starts with a .500 record pitcher, Fedde, Matz, a reliable closer I will be impressed.

[Banner29]

Up until Bloom took over no, it’s not gonna be a quick fix. Having 2 top 10 picks in the system in about a month will certainly help however there’s still a lot of work to do. But he built superb systems for 2 different teams there’s no reason to believe he won’t build one here.

Bloom's Red Sox are still below .500 2 years after leaving them.

I will no longer debate this with you. You can’t stand the guy and you want him to fail miserably. All because hes simply replacing Mo.


You simply can’t reason with that mentality

I don't want him to fail at all. I just think he is not a Saviour. He will have a big task of replacing starters next season.

Nobody believes you. You hope and pray he fails and will be as big a hater on here than anyone the second he takes over for good

[Futuregm2]

Up until Bloom took over no, it’s not gonna be a quick fix. Having 2 top 10 picks in the system in about a month will certainly help however there’s still a lot of work to do. But he built superb systems for 2 different teams there’s no reason to believe he won’t build one here.

Bloom's Red Sox are still below .500 2 years after leaving them.

I will no longer debate this with you. You can’t stand the guy and you want him to fail miserably. All because hes simply replacing Mo.


You simply can’t reason with that mentality

He did indeed do a fine job with the systems at both
TB and Boston. He and Cerfolio should make a great team.

He finished last 3 times with Boston in 4 years. 2 seasons leaving the Sox they are below .500.

I'm surprised posters here don't say we hired Bloom because DeWitt needed to save on GM's salaries.

If he replaces Mikolas's 30 starts with a .500 record pitcher, Fedde, Matz, a reliable closer I will be impressed.

Continuing to repeat this won’t make it true.

2024: 81-81
2025: 39-37

And yes, how ever will he replace a guy like Mikolas that is 23-28 with a 4.93 ERA over the last 3 years?

[hugeCardfan]

The Cardinals are, hopefully, in the process of turning their system and philosophy around to where they are both developing enough young, cost controlled talent and being patient enough to keep that talent rather than trading it away for "quick fix" veterans.

As a surrogate measure (you could pick others), I use fWAR produced by players age 28 and under as a measure of how much production they are getting from cost controlled (pre-ARB, ARB, etc.) talent. Here is where the Cardinals have been in recent years:

2018 - 18.9 fWAR
2019 - 23.8 fWAR

2021 - 18.7 fWAR
2022 - 18.9 fWAR
2023 - 15.1 fWAR
2024 - 14.0 fWAR
2025 - 11.6 fWAR to date (on pace for 25.7 fWAR)

They likely need 25-30 fWAR from cost controlled players as a foundation that they can selectively add to from outside the organization. That, plus another 15 fWAR from full market value veteran players (e.g., Gray, Contreras, Arenado, Mikolas, etc.) should make them a ~88-92 win team regularly.

Outstanding comments Mattmitch.... As you suggest, I think they are moving in the right direction and may average between 20 and 30 fWAR from the cost controlled players for the next 5 plus years.... As always there will be disappointments, but, with adequate investment, I think the momentum forward will be very good...much better than the last 6 years.

[Ike Hammett]

Huh? What is this? Cards farm is producing more than Oli can find playing time for. Cards farm is so good, spoiled brats want to trade 34 year old hall of famers with multiple all star, top 10 MVPs and platinum gloves they got an excellent deal on. Such good prospects most didn't want to trade some to get prime young years of Juan Soto the highest paid player ever.

[hugeCardfan]

Up until Bloom took over no, it’s not gonna be a quick fix. Having 2 top 10 picks in the system in about a month will certainly help however there’s still a lot of work to do. But he built superb systems for 2 different teams there’s no reason to believe he won’t build one here.

Bloom's Red Sox are still below .500 2 years after leaving them.

I will no longer debate this with you. You can’t stand the guy and you want him to fail miserably. All because hes simply replacing Mo.


You simply can’t reason with that mentality

I don't want him to fail at all. I just think he is not a Saviour. He will have a big task of replacing starters next season.

Which starters?

We’re only losing Mikolas and Fedde. They’re easily replaced next year with McGreevy and Mathews.

Agreed. Skill wise, I think we will see some improvement. Not sure how the innings translate. The two veterans show all starts and tend to give 6 innings. While we may get that from McGreevy and Mathews, it could be problematic. The major league stress level is hard to calculate on rookies. I expect both Pallante and Liberatore to mature some and give us a little better season than this year. Sonny will be Sonny. Next year Graceffo may be counted on to give us extended relief like Matz in '24. Perhaps Chaim will be looking for a swingman from the FA market this winter.

[Banner29]

Up until Bloom took over no, it’s not gonna be a quick fix. Having 2 top 10 picks in the system in about a month will certainly help however there’s still a lot of work to do. But he built superb systems for 2 different teams there’s no reason to believe he won’t build one here.

Bloom's Red Sox are still below .500 2 years after leaving them.

I will no longer debate this with you. You can’t stand the guy and you want him to fail miserably. All because hes simply replacing Mo.


You simply can’t reason with that mentality

I don't want him to fail at all. I just think he is not a Saviour. He will have a big task of replacing starters next season.

Which starters?

We’re only losing Mikolas and Fedde. They’re easily replaced next year with McGreevy and Mathews.

Agreed. Skill wise, I think we will see some improvement. Not sure how the innings translate. The two veterans show all starts and tend to give 6 innings. While we may get that from McGreevy and Mathews, it could be problematic. The major league stress level is hard to calculate on rookies. I expect both Pallante and Liberatore to mature some and give us a little better season than this year. Sonny will be Sonny. Next year Graceffo may be counted on to give us extended relief like Matz in '24. Perhaps Chaim will be looking for a swingman from the FA market this winter.

I don’t count on Pallante long term in the rotation. I think he would be just fine as that swingman. But I’d look in FA for a legitimate TOTR starter(if Bloom is allowed to spend) and roll with him and Gray and let Mcgreevy, Libs, and Matthew’s develop as big league starters with Pallante in the pen and if needed a couple spot starts. Libs will have a full season under his belt. Mcgreevy while inexperienced does not know how to throw anything but a strike so that will certainly help with his pitch counts/innings pitched. Mathews there certainly will be some growing pains as I understand he’s been having alittle trouble finding the strike zone but that’s where Pallante and maybe even Greceffo come in

[cbcardsfan]

No

[JDW]

The Cardinals are, hopefully, in the process of turning their system and philosophy around to where they are both developing enough young, cost controlled talent and being patient enough to keep that talent rather than trading it away for "quick fix" veterans.

As a surrogate measure (you could pick others), I use fWAR produced by players age 28 and under as a measure of how much production they are getting from cost controlled (pre-ARB, ARB, etc.) talent. Here is where the Cardinals have been in recent years:

2018 - 18.9 fWAR
2019 - 23.8 fWAR

2021 - 18.7 fWAR
2022 - 18.9 fWAR
2023 - 15.1 fWAR
2024 - 14.0 fWAR
2025 - 11.6 fWAR to date (on pace for 25.7 fWAR)

They likely need 25-30 fWAR from cost controlled players as a foundation that they can selectively add to from outside the organization.

Am I wrong. Aren’t those numbers well away from your needed 25-30 fWAR. How do you close that gap?

For this season, they are on pace (if the players keep producing as they have so far) to end the year with ~25 fWAR from age 28 and under players.

They're pretty heavily skewed toward position player fWAR (8.9) vs. pitcher fWAR (2.7), so they could use a lot more balance by getting more production from age 28- pitchers.

Ok. Now am I correct in that once they achieve these numbers, the org can then look elsewhere for another fWAR weighted player.

What would be the fWAR needed to fill an outside in slot to match the others at 25-30 fWAR.

If you are asking how do you estimate actual team wins from team fWAR, it's:

team wins = team fWAR + 47.7

So you expect a 30 fWAR team to win 78 games, a 40 fWAR team to win 88 games, a 50 fWAR team to win 98 games, etc.

Do the Rockies get to add the 47.7?

[JDW]

After looking at some of the Rockies players WAR, it might not be an accumulated positive number, lol.

[Youboughtit]

the Cards?

It's a tricky question but there is room for optimism.

I will mention some and hope others will chime in.

Pitching:

My vantage point is this remains a weakness, but if things go well....

A) Starters:

McGreevy, Mathews, and Roby seems to be sooner than later hopefuls.

1) McGreevy is ready to move up. He dominates AAA and has pitched well in ML visits. I think he will settle in as a #3 type.

2) Mathews has regained his composure from last year and, following a few rehab starts, seems to be handling AAA well lately. Today he pitched 5.1 innings with 1H, 2BB's, 6 K's. His changeup was devastating and with control tamed Norfolk. He seems to get stronger as games progress. His fastball ranges between 94-96 and surges to 97. I see him in St Louis next year...probably a #3.

3) Roby is likely a year away. He dominated AA and probably will set a personal record for innings pitched this year. He's struggling a bit in AAA but has some really good moments. He could possibly pitch out of the pen, but I hope they keep him in the rotation.

4) Tink has the best stuff of the bunch but has shown no indication to remain healthy enough to start. He has the best fast ball and likely the best curve. He just needs to give us innings, which he has been unable to do. I don't see Tink in St Louis in 2026 anything short of a minor miracle...unless they give up on the starting. I don't think they will by next year.

5) Ixan Hernandez is moving up but has yet to be tested at AAA. This will be a good test for him and one that may waylay him. His stuff is good and his command continues to improve. However, he tends to nibble and it remains to be seen if that will work in AAA. Ixan Henderson is a deceptive lefty with a six-pitch mix to attack hitters and keep them off balance. He doesn’t blow anyone away with pure stuff or velocity, but all his pitches can get the job done and would leap forward with a little extra velocity. He's 22. No telling if that increase in velocity is available. He's at least a year away.

6) Hjerpe and Sem Robberse have some potential to be in the mix...if they can get healthy.

7) Further down the line is Chen Wei-Lin who is a young pitcher, just turned 23, with a ton of raw tools and that makes him a fun developmental project going forward. He put up good numbers at Palm Beach in 2024 (now in Peoria) with better-than-expected control who stands 6-foot-7.

The highlight of Lin’s arsenal is his fastball, which sits 96-97 mph and has touched 101. Oddly enough, the fastball needs refinement because there isn't enough swing and miss yet. He is 2-3 years away IMO.

There are other starters showing less promise at this point but not without potential.

B) Relievers:

This is a team weakness but there are some real bright spots.

1) Gordon Graceffo has been a starter until this year but appears to be settling into reliever...albeit possibly long reliever. He keeps finding more velocity and has pretty good command. Until this year the fastball was a detriment. It may have recently become much more of a plus. He mixes a slider, a curveball, and a changeup. Although the curveball has been his main pitch going back to his college and low A days, the slider looks like the better offering now. It is thought that his stuff may qualify him for the late innings in St Louis next year.

2) Andre Granillo been a top relief prospect in the organization for a few years because of his bat-missing ability. He is finally taking the next step and has done so well lately to be promoted to the 26 man roster. He's pitched effectively in St Louis briefly. Likely a late inning reliever.

3) 23 year old RHR Luis Gastelum possesses a truly remarkable change up.... Springfield has enjoyed his services as a closer recently. He has made great strides commanding the pitch this year and while his stats still belie his development, he looks like one of the best relievers in AA right now. I wouldn't be surprised if he becomes our closer sooner or later. You have to see his change up to believe it.

4) There are other relievers with promise: Showalter, Svanson, Loutos, and Nunez to name a few, but they are too far away to speculate on at this point. (Notwithstanding that Svanson has been up a couple times)

That's how I see the pitching and would invite comments from others who might add or contradict my perceptions.

As lengthy as this is, I will undertake position players in a later post.

Needless to say, I am more excited about some of these prospects than our pitching.

Do any have superstar upside or a 70 tool? I keep waiting for a 70 hit tool or fastball to get excited but Pujols was the last bat and Gibson the last SP that excelled. This team .is absolutely loaded with B-C grade talent. They need a generational pitcher and hitter to balance it out. I don’t see it anywhere currently

all teams need/want a generational talent.

Who doesn’t have it besides the white Sox Mariners Rockies and Rays? Are we like them now? Most teams have 1-2-3 elite players on their rosters