Is the farm developing enough talent to support

[JDW]

So maybe I'm over optimistic moving forward, but I do think the farm is supporting the MLB team well, with a chance to trend better with the recent changes which I hope translates to upgrades.
In 2026, you might have an infield similar to this: Donovan 3B-Winn SS, Wetherholt 2B and Contreras 1B. If so, that's 3 out of 4 produced from the farm, with depth from Saggese and others.
The C position with Pages, Crooks, Bernal, etc. are farm produced.
The current OF only has farm produced players, and maybe Herrera adds LF to his positional resume next year. Maybe Baez gets a shot in the OF next year.
The DH could be filled with Burleson, Gorman, etc. Once again farm produced.
Possibly what's lacking is supporting the team with a top notch FA addition or 2. We don't need middling type FA's imo, as the farm can support the need for average-ish type MLB players.

[scoutyjones2]

OK, so we’ve had a chance to digest the OP and some random responses regarding potential farm contribution to the ML team. It is fair to say that not all team building is expected to come from internal development. No team boasts that. A look at the Dodgers makes this abundantly clear. Few All Stars on last year’s Champions were developments of their farm. Certainly not Mookie Betts or Freddy Freeman, etc. That’s true of most teams in baseball, particularly as it relates to their AS players. So to criticize the farm for not having drafted and developed 70 players may be disingenuous. De Witt himself laid down a plan to build thru 1) the farm, 2) FA and 3) trade. The last two AS’s came via trades with Colorado and Arizona. We paid for them with prospects developed from our system. We also released some spectacular players developed on the farm…Alcantara, Gallen and Arozarena to name a few.

None of this is proffered to prove anything. Mistakes have been made. Incredible successes too. Yadi, AP and Waino. Waino wasn’t drafted but he was the result of a great trade of JD Drew who was drafted.

But let’s confine our discussion to the current. Some of our current players are home grown. Donovan, Winn, Herrera, Nootbaar, Walker, Pallante, Helsley, Gorman and Burleson. Throw in McGreevy. Are any AS’s? Yes. Helsley. Can any be in the future? Yes. I’d argue that Donovan may be an AS this year. Winn could become one in near future. Perhaps Walker as well.

Anyway, the farm has supported the Redbirds in the past and the pitching OP suggests it continues to do so. In the next few days let’s look at the position players and see how that shapes up.

None of the players are all stars...maybe Hurdy Gurdy.

Home grown is a mere part of the system and has its place; like adding an aging vet. A pie ain’t a good pie till all the ingredients are added.

But, homemade pie is the best tasting pie

[sikeston bulldog2]

OK, so we’ve had a chance to digest the OP and some random responses regarding potential farm contribution to the ML team. It is fair to say that not all team building is expected to come from internal development. No team boasts that. A look at the Dodgers makes this abundantly clear. Few All Stars on last year’s Champions were developments of their farm. Certainly not Mookie Betts or Freddy Freeman, etc. That’s true of most teams in baseball, particularly as it relates to their AS players. So to criticize the farm for not having drafted and developed 70 players may be disingenuous. De Witt himself laid down a plan to build thru 1) the farm, 2) FA and 3) trade. The last two AS’s came via trades with Colorado and Arizona. We paid for them with prospects developed from our system. We also released some spectacular players developed on the farm…Alcantara, Gallen and Arozarena to name a few.

None of this is proffered to prove anything. Mistakes have been made. Incredible successes too. Yadi, AP and Waino. Waino wasn’t drafted but he was the result of a great trade of JD Drew who was drafted.

But let’s confine our discussion to the current. Some of our current players are home grown. Donovan, Winn, Herrera, Nootbaar, Walker, Pallante, Helsley, Gorman and Burleson. Throw in McGreevy. Are any AS’s? Yes. Helsley. Can any be in the future? Yes. I’d argue that Donovan may be an AS this year. Winn could become one in near future. Perhaps Walker as well.

Anyway, the farm has supported the Redbirds in the past and the pitching OP suggests it continues to do so. In the next few days let’s look at the position players and see how that shapes up.

None of the players are all stars...maybe Hurdy Gurdy.

Home grown is a mere part of the system and has its place; like adding an aging vet. A pie ain’t a good pie till all the ingredients are added.

But, homemade pie is the best tasting pie

Agreed. Pie at the Y is my choice.

But, many pies get made, but not well- too much this, not enough of that. But! As you note the best pies are those made perfect. Like a baseball team- ha.

[mattmitchl44]

The Cardinals are, hopefully, in the process of turning their system and philosophy around to where they are both developing enough young, cost controlled talent and being patient enough to keep that talent rather than trading it away for "quick fix" veterans.

As a surrogate measure (you could pick others), I use fWAR produced by players age 28 and under as a measure of how much production they are getting from cost controlled (pre-ARB, ARB, etc.) talent. Here is where the Cardinals have been in recent years:

2018 - 18.9 fWAR
2019 - 23.8 fWAR

2021 - 18.7 fWAR
2022 - 18.9 fWAR
2023 - 15.1 fWAR
2024 - 14.0 fWAR
2025 - 11.6 fWAR to date (on pace for 25.7 fWAR)

They likely need 25-30 fWAR from cost controlled players as a foundation that they can selectively add to from outside the organization. That, plus another 15 fWAR from full market value veteran players (e.g., Gray, Contreras, Arenado, Mikolas, etc.) should make them a ~88-92 win team regularly.

[sikeston bulldog2]

The Cardinals are, hopefully, in the process of turning their system and philosophy around to where they are both developing enough young, cost controlled talent and being patient enough to keep that talent rather than trading it away for "quick fix" veterans.

As a surrogate measure (you could pick others), I use fWAR produced by players age 28 and under as a measure of how much production they are getting from cost controlled (pre-ARB, ARB, etc.) talent. Here is where the Cardinals have been in recent years:

2018 - 18.9 fWAR
2019 - 23.8 fWAR

2021 - 18.7 fWAR
2022 - 18.9 fWAR
2023 - 15.1 fWAR
2024 - 14.0 fWAR
2025 - 11.6 fWAR to date (on pace for 25.7 fWAR)

They likely need 25-30 fWAR from cost controlled players as a foundation that they can selectively add to from outside the organization.

Am I wrong. Aren’t those numbers well away from your needed 25-30 fWAR. How do you close that gap?

[mattmitchl44]

The Cardinals are, hopefully, in the process of turning their system and philosophy around to where they are both developing enough young, cost controlled talent and being patient enough to keep that talent rather than trading it away for "quick fix" veterans.

As a surrogate measure (you could pick others), I use fWAR produced by players age 28 and under as a measure of how much production they are getting from cost controlled (pre-ARB, ARB, etc.) talent. Here is where the Cardinals have been in recent years:

2018 - 18.9 fWAR
2019 - 23.8 fWAR

2021 - 18.7 fWAR
2022 - 18.9 fWAR
2023 - 15.1 fWAR
2024 - 14.0 fWAR
2025 - 11.6 fWAR to date (on pace for 25.7 fWAR)

They likely need 25-30 fWAR from cost controlled players as a foundation that they can selectively add to from outside the organization.

Am I wrong. Aren’t those numbers well away from your needed 25-30 fWAR. How do you close that gap?

For this season, they are on pace (if the players keep producing as they have so far) to end the year with ~25 fWAR from age 28 and under players.

They're pretty heavily skewed toward position player fWAR (8.9) vs. pitcher fWAR (2.7), so they could use a lot more balance by getting more production from age 28- pitchers.

[sikeston bulldog2]

The Cardinals are, hopefully, in the process of turning their system and philosophy around to where they are both developing enough young, cost controlled talent and being patient enough to keep that talent rather than trading it away for "quick fix" veterans.

As a surrogate measure (you could pick others), I use fWAR produced by players age 28 and under as a measure of how much production they are getting from cost controlled (pre-ARB, ARB, etc.) talent. Here is where the Cardinals have been in recent years:

2018 - 18.9 fWAR
2019 - 23.8 fWAR

2021 - 18.7 fWAR
2022 - 18.9 fWAR
2023 - 15.1 fWAR
2024 - 14.0 fWAR
2025 - 11.6 fWAR to date (on pace for 25.7 fWAR)

They likely need 25-30 fWAR from cost controlled players as a foundation that they can selectively add to from outside the organization.

Am I wrong. Aren’t those numbers well away from your needed 25-30 fWAR. How do you close that gap?

For this season, they are on pace (if the players keep producing as they have so far) to end the year with ~25 fWAR from age 28 and under players.

They're pretty heavily skewed toward position player fWAR (8.9) vs. pitcher fWAR (2.7), so they could use a lot more balance by getting more production from age 28- pitchers.

Ok. Now am I correct in that once they achieve these numbers, the org can then look elsewhere for another fWAR weighted player.

What would be the fWAR needed to fill an outside in slot to match the others at 25-30 fWAR.

[rockondlouie]

Good analysis huge

-McGreevy is the only major league ready starter, looks like a solid #3 w/possibly some upside #2 seasons

-Mathews is still in prospect territory, could end up being a decent starter but needs to get back on track after slipping a bit in AAA

-Roby needs to show he can stay healthy before we even pencil him in as a back of the rotation starter

-Hence is NOT a starter. His inability to stay healthy shows he can't handle even a 150 innings he'd need to be an effective major league starter. I've said now for two years he's our Helsley closer replacement!

Upper 90's fastball + outstanding change-up = D. Williams like closer stuff.

-Hernandez I have no clue and will defer to you and duce on him

-Hjerpe and Sem Robberse are JAGS if they ever make it to St. Louis



I don't see any FOTR starters in that mix.

C. Bloom is going to have to go outside the organization and find at least two, if not three starters once Gray, Mikolas and Fedde are gone.

With Pallante's regression it may be three via trades or free agency as early as 2026.

JMO

[Cranny]

Catcher - set with Pages/Pozo/Herrera/Crooks/Bernal
1B - set for several years with Contreras
2B - set with Donovan/Gorman/Wetherholt
SS - set with Winn
3B - set with Arenado for several years. If traded,
then Wetherholt or Saggese
LF - not set
CF - set with Scott II
RF - not set

The main holes are corner outfielders if Noot and Walker don’t get it going. Only hope internally right now could be Davis, Baez, or perhaps converting Herrera, Wetherholt, or Saggese to OF. Otherwise, trade for a proven corner outfielder.

[mattmitchl44]

The Cardinals are, hopefully, in the process of turning their system and philosophy around to where they are both developing enough young, cost controlled talent and being patient enough to keep that talent rather than trading it away for "quick fix" veterans.

As a surrogate measure (you could pick others), I use fWAR produced by players age 28 and under as a measure of how much production they are getting from cost controlled (pre-ARB, ARB, etc.) talent. Here is where the Cardinals have been in recent years:

2018 - 18.9 fWAR
2019 - 23.8 fWAR

2021 - 18.7 fWAR
2022 - 18.9 fWAR
2023 - 15.1 fWAR
2024 - 14.0 fWAR
2025 - 11.6 fWAR to date (on pace for 25.7 fWAR)

They likely need 25-30 fWAR from cost controlled players as a foundation that they can selectively add to from outside the organization.

Am I wrong. Aren’t those numbers well away from your needed 25-30 fWAR. How do you close that gap?

For this season, they are on pace (if the players keep producing as they have so far) to end the year with ~25 fWAR from age 28 and under players.

They're pretty heavily skewed toward position player fWAR (8.9) vs. pitcher fWAR (2.7), so they could use a lot more balance by getting more production from age 28- pitchers.

Ok. Now am I correct in that once they achieve these numbers, the org can then look elsewhere for another fWAR weighted player.

What would be the fWAR needed to fill an outside in slot to match the others at 25-30 fWAR.

If you are asking how do you estimate actual team wins from team fWAR, it's:

team wins = team fWAR + 47.7

So you expect a 30 fWAR team to win 78 games, a 40 fWAR team to win 88 games, a 50 fWAR team to win 98 games, etc.

[thetank2]

Up until Bloom took over no, it’s not gonna be a quick fix. Having 2 top 10 picks in the system in about a month will certainly help however there’s still a lot of work to do. But he built superb systems for 2 different teams there’s no reason to believe he won’t build one here.

Bloom's Red Sox are still below .500 2 years after leaving them.

[Futuregm2]

Good analysis huge

-McGreevy is the only major league ready starter, looks like a solid #3 w/possibly some upside #2 seasons

-Mathews is still in prospect territory, could end up being a decent starter but needs to get back on track after slipping a bit in AAA

-Roby needs to show he can stay healthy before we even pencil him in as a back of the rotation starter

-Hence is NOT a starter. His inability to stay healthy shows he can't handle even a 150 innings he'd need to be an effective major league starter. I've said now for two years he's our Helsley closer replacement!

Upper 90's fastball + outstanding change-up = D. Williams like closer stuff.

-Hernandez I have no clue and will defer to you and duce on him

-Hjerpe and Sem Robberse are JAGS if they ever make it to St. Louis



I don't see any FOTR starters in that mix.

C. Bloom is going to have to go outside the organization and find at least two, if not three starters once Gray, Mikolas and Fedde are gone.

With Pallante's regression it may be three via trades or free agency as early as 2026.

JMO

And he is

Last 3 starts: 13 IP 8 H 2 ER 6 BB 17 K
Yesterday: 5 IP 1 H 0 R 2 BB 6 K

Heard his velo held up really well yesterday. His season AAA ERA is down to 3.81. Needs to consistently keep the walks down like that, but he’s getting closer. To me he’s the best bet to be a FOTR starter in our minor leagues right now.

[sikeston bulldog2]

The Cardinals are, hopefully, in the process of turning their system and philosophy around to where they are both developing enough young, cost controlled talent and being patient enough to keep that talent rather than trading it away for "quick fix" veterans.

As a surrogate measure (you could pick others), I use fWAR produced by players age 28 and under as a measure of how much production they are getting from cost controlled (pre-ARB, ARB, etc.) talent. Here is where the Cardinals have been in recent years:

2018 - 18.9 fWAR
2019 - 23.8 fWAR

2021 - 18.7 fWAR
2022 - 18.9 fWAR
2023 - 15.1 fWAR
2024 - 14.0 fWAR
2025 - 11.6 fWAR to date (on pace for 25.7 fWAR)

They likely need 25-30 fWAR from cost controlled players as a foundation that they can selectively add to from outside the organization.

Am I wrong. Aren’t those numbers well away from your needed 25-30 fWAR. How do you close that gap?

For this season, they are on pace (if the players keep producing as they have so far) to end the year with ~25 fWAR from age 28 and under players.

They're pretty heavily skewed toward position player fWAR (8.9) vs. pitcher fWAR (2.7), so they could use a lot more balance by getting more production from age 28- pitchers.

Ok. Now am I correct in that once they achieve these numbers, the org can then look elsewhere for another fWAR weighted player.

What would be the fWAR needed to fill an outside in slot to match the others at 25-30 fWAR.

If you are asking how do you estimate actual team wins from team fWAR, it's:

team wins = team fWAR + 47.7

So you expect a 30 fWAR team to win 78 games, a 40 fWAR team to win 88 games, a 50 fWAR team to win 98 games, etc.

Thanx for your repeated responses. The 30 fWAR team you mentioned would win 78 games. I see that.

Does the fWAR change by position or player, and the total fWAR is from the nine players currently playing.

[rockondlouie]

Catcher - set with Pages/Pozo/Herrera/Crooks/Bernal
1B - set for several years with Contreras
2B - set with Donovan/Gorman/Wetherholt
SS - set with Winn
3B - set with Arenado for several years. If traded,
then Wetherholt or Saggese
LF - not set
CF - set with Scott II
RF - not set

The main holes are corner outfielders if Noot and Walker don’t get it going. Only hope internally right now could be Davis, Baez, or perhaps converting Herrera, Wetherholt, or Saggese to OF. Otherwise, trade for a proven corner outfielder.

I've been suggesting since last year they give I. Hererra an OF'ers glove and have him work w/J. Jay all winter + spring training.

If TGKS, G. Luzinski, L. Smith, D. Kingman etal all can handle the OF, then I don't know why Hererra couldn't handle LF.

That would be the ideal situation if it worked w/Bernal on the runway and tearing things up both defensively & offensively down below!

You forgot DH where Burleson and Gorman could end up (but I could see one being dealt).

3rd base will be a problem (already is offensively w/NADO), you really want a power bat there something JJ & Saggese are not.

[Futuregm2]

Up until Bloom took over no, it’s not gonna be a quick fix. Having 2 top 10 picks in the system in about a month will certainly help however there’s still a lot of work to do. But he built superb systems for 2 different teams there’s no reason to believe he won’t build one here.

Bloom's Red Sox are still below .500 2 years after leaving them.

No they aren’t. They were 81-81 last year and are 39-37 this year.

[rockondlouie]

Good analysis huge

-McGreevy is the only major league ready starter, looks like a solid #3 w/possibly some upside #2 seasons

-Mathews is still in prospect territory, could end up being a decent starter but needs to get back on track after slipping a bit in AAA

-Roby needs to show he can stay healthy before we even pencil him in as a back of the rotation starter

-Hence is NOT a starter. His inability to stay healthy shows he can't handle even a 150 innings he'd need to be an effective major league starter. I've said now for two years he's our Helsley closer replacement!

Upper 90's fastball + outstanding change-up = D. Williams like closer stuff.

-Hernandez I have no clue and will defer to you and duce on him

-Hjerpe and Sem Robberse are JAGS if they ever make it to St. Louis



I don't see any FOTR starters in that mix.

C. Bloom is going to have to go outside the organization and find at least two, if not three starters once Gray, Mikolas and Fedde are gone.

With Pallante's regression it may be three via trades or free agency as early as 2026.

JMO

And he is

Last 3 starts: 13 IP 8 H 2 ER 6 BB 17 K
Yesterday: 5 IP 1 H 0 R 2 BB 6 K

Heard his velo held up really well yesterday. His season AAA ERA is down to 3.81. Needs to consistently keep the walks down like that, but he’s getting closer. To me he’s the best bet to be a FOTR starter in our minor leagues right now.

Good deal, I was just going back to look at his recent game logs and you saved me some time, thx!

He's got the stuff to be an upside #2, let's hope he stays healthy.

The good news is under Bloom/Cerfolio he now has the tools he needs to reach that level!