History Of The Blues 19th Overall Pick In The Cap Era

[TBone]

What should Blues expect when looking at 19th overall picks of the cap era

The Blues are selecting 19th overall in the 2025 draft, so we're taking a look at players taken there in prior drafts and seeing how their careers have panned out.

By Joe DeMarini
June 16, 2025

The NHL Draft is just a few weeks away, and the St. Louis Blues hold the 19th overall pick. To get an idea about what kinds of players get picked in that range, we're looking at players selected 19th since the start of the cap era--that's 2005 to last summer. It's an interesting mix of players that turned out to be stars, journeymen, and total busts that never played a single NHL game. Let's get into it.

https://bleedinblue.com/what-should-blu ... jxwsqq67v2

[TBone]

Here is a similar story with the history of the 1st overall pick followed by the best player in each draft.

--------------------------------------------

What We've Learned From Past NHL Drafts: Top Players Slip In Annual Crapshoot

Sam Carchidi
June 16, 2025

- clip -

In 2006, defenseman Erik Johnson was chosen No. 1 by the St. Louis Blues, and center Jordan Staal went No. 2 to Pittsburgh. But some of the most productive players in that draft were Brad Marchand (No. 71 overall to Boston) and Claude Giroux (No. 22 overall to Philadelphia). Marchand has the most goals (424) in that draft class, and Giroux has the most points (1,116).

In some of the more recent drafts, the arguably best player turned out to be the No. 4 pick in 2017 (Cale Makar to Colorado) and the No. 7 selection in 2018 (Quinn Hughes to Vancouver).

So far, the best player from the 2020 draft was the No. 3 pick (Tim Stutzle to Ottawa), and Wyatt Johnston, 23rd overall by the Dallas Stars in 2021, is looking like the premier player from the class.

In other words, it’s not an exact science, no matter how much hype the prospects receive from the draft experts.

Here is a list of the No. 1 overall picks from 2000 to 2024 and, excluding the last three drafts, the players who have emerged as the best from the respective classes:

https://sports.yahoo.com/article/weve-l ... 15171.html

[dhsux]

A quick peruse and they batted .500 in landing the best player.

[dhsux]

What should Blues expect when looking at 19th overall picks of the cap era

The Blues are selecting 19th overall in the 2025 draft, so we're taking a look at players taken there in prior drafts and seeing how their careers have panned out.

By Joe DeMarini
June 16, 2025

The NHL Draft is just a few weeks away, and the St. Louis Blues hold the 19th overall pick. To get an idea about what kinds of players get picked in that range, we're looking at players selected 19th since the start of the cap era--that's 2005 to last summer. It's an interesting mix of players that turned out to be stars, journeymen, and total busts that never played a single NHL game. Let's get into it.

https://bleedinblue.com/what-should-blu ... jxwsqq67v2

I'd love to know the most important metrics used by the staff to make their case for their player in this mid range.

Speed, stick, body, stats, mind, drive, ability, character and what intangible do you look for most to find that diamond?

[callitwhatyouwant]

What should Blues expect when looking at 19th overall picks of the cap era

The Blues are selecting 19th overall in the 2025 draft, so we're taking a look at players taken there in prior drafts and seeing how their careers have panned out.

By Joe DeMarini
June 16, 2025

The NHL Draft is just a few weeks away, and the St. Louis Blues hold the 19th overall pick. To get an idea about what kinds of players get picked in that range, we're looking at players selected 19th since the start of the cap era--that's 2005 to last summer. It's an interesting mix of players that turned out to be stars, journeymen, and total busts that never played a single NHL game. Let's get into it.

https://bleedinblue.com/what-should-blu ... jxwsqq67v2

I'd love to know the most important metrics used by the staff to make their case for their player in this mid range.

Speed, stick, body, stats, mind, drive, ability, character and what intangible do you look for most to find that diamond?

I think they probably have a core set of beliefs but it is really dependent on the year and where they project themselves. 2 years ago when we had 3 1st round picks, we just traded away a bunch of talented older forwards. They knew they had to throw as many darts at the board as they could at the forward position. They choose 2 of those guys in the 1st round and then continue to make those types of picks. Last year, after a forward heavy draft, they look at where we are at and realize we have a lot of bottom pairing projected defenders and only 1 top 4 defender in the farm system. So they took a gamble. Jiricek is a top 10 pick in any other draft when healthy. So they leveraged him being hurt to go ahead and take a gamble. To me its a calculated risk, if you hit with him and lindstein, now you have 2 potential top 4 defenders to pair with your loaded forward group.

This year, I would venture to guess that the thinking is BPA with a slight lean to defense. And they might lean towards someone with no history of injury just to have a safety net.

[Boomac]

What should Blues expect when looking at 19th overall picks of the cap era

The Blues are selecting 19th overall in the 2025 draft, so we're taking a look at players taken there in prior drafts and seeing how their careers have panned out.

By Joe DeMarini
June 16, 2025

The NHL Draft is just a few weeks away, and the St. Louis Blues hold the 19th overall pick. To get an idea about what kinds of players get picked in that range, we're looking at players selected 19th since the start of the cap era--that's 2005 to last summer. It's an interesting mix of players that turned out to be stars, journeymen, and total busts that never played a single NHL game. Let's get into it.

https://bleedinblue.com/what-should-blu ... jxwsqq67v2

I'd love to know the most important metrics used by the staff to make their case for their player in this mid range.

Speed, stick, body, stats, mind, drive, ability, character and what intangible do you look for most to find that diamond?

They seem to value compete, hockey sense and raw talent in the first couple of rounds, even if that prospect is missing a component (size / skating / etc).

[callitwhatyouwant]

What should Blues expect when looking at 19th overall picks of the cap era

The Blues are selecting 19th overall in the 2025 draft, so we're taking a look at players taken there in prior drafts and seeing how their careers have panned out.

By Joe DeMarini
June 16, 2025

The NHL Draft is just a few weeks away, and the St. Louis Blues hold the 19th overall pick. To get an idea about what kinds of players get picked in that range, we're looking at players selected 19th since the start of the cap era--that's 2005 to last summer. It's an interesting mix of players that turned out to be stars, journeymen, and total busts that never played a single NHL game. Let's get into it.

https://bleedinblue.com/what-should-blu ... jxwsqq67v2

I'd love to know the most important metrics used by the staff to make their case for their player in this mid range.

Speed, stick, body, stats, mind, drive, ability, character and what intangible do you look for most to find that diamond?

They seem to value compete, hockey sense and raw talent in the first couple of rounds, even if that prospect is missing a component (size / skating / etc).

That is true. It seems like they pick guys that are going to drive the locker room, and in turn it seems to be the picks that get them the most value. When they have taken guys like a klim kostin, it hasn't worked as well.

The real question is. What is the value of jersey sales per pick number? That's what we have to know right? For the kids at least.

[STL fan in MN]

What should Blues expect when looking at 19th overall picks of the cap era

The Blues are selecting 19th overall in the 2025 draft, so we're taking a look at players taken there in prior drafts and seeing how their careers have panned out.

By Joe DeMarini
June 16, 2025

The NHL Draft is just a few weeks away, and the St. Louis Blues hold the 19th overall pick. To get an idea about what kinds of players get picked in that range, we're looking at players selected 19th since the start of the cap era--that's 2005 to last summer. It's an interesting mix of players that turned out to be stars, journeymen, and total busts that never played a single NHL game. Let's get into it.

https://bleedinblue.com/what-should-blu ... jxwsqq67v2

I'd love to know the most important metrics used by the staff to make their case for their player in this mid range.

Speed, stick, body, stats, mind, drive, ability, character and what intangible do you look for most to find that diamond?

They seem to value compete, hockey sense and raw talent in the first couple of rounds, even if that prospect is missing a component (size / skating / etc).

Agree. And we don’t really have to guess. Army has been asked this question multiple times over the years and the first 2 phrases out of his mouth are usually hockey sense and compete level.

And I agree with valuing those 2 things the most. Obviously raw skill is important too. But a smart player that also works hard will usually get you far. They’re the ones that will fight for every inch. And not just on the ice but in their development as well. They’ll see what they need to improve to make it and put the work in.

[seattleblue]

Once they're past a certain development level you either have it or you don't: size, competitiveness, hockey IQ

Seems like we wisely focus on the latter two while merely avoiding too much risk with the first

[sdaltons]

Here is a similar story with the history of the 1st overall pick followed by the best player in each draft.

--------------------------------------------

What We've Learned From Past NHL Drafts: Top Players Slip In Annual Crapshoot

Sam Carchidi
June 16, 2025

- clip -

In 2006, defenseman Erik Johnson was chosen No. 1 by the St. Louis Blues, and center Jordan Staal went No. 2 to Pittsburgh. But some of the most productive players in that draft were Brad Marchand (No. 71 overall to Boston) and Claude Giroux (No. 22 overall to Philadelphia). Marchand has the most goals (424) in that draft class, and Giroux has the most points (1,116).

In some of the more recent drafts, the arguably best player turned out to be the No. 4 pick in 2017 (Cale Makar to Colorado) and the No. 7 selection in 2018 (Quinn Hughes to Vancouver).

So far, the best player from the 2020 draft was the No. 3 pick (Tim Stutzle to Ottawa), and Wyatt Johnston, 23rd overall by the Dallas Stars in 2021, is looking like the premier player from the class.

In other words, it’s not an exact science, no matter how much hype the prospects receive from the draft experts.

Here is a list of the No. 1 overall picks from 2000 to 2024 and, excluding the last three drafts, the players who have emerged as the best from the respective classes:

https://sports.yahoo.com/article/weve-l ... 15171.html

So your saying it is possible to find a star outside the TOP5 ??? Didn't think that was allowed?

[STL fan in MN]

While exercises like this give us a good idea of the type of player that’s typically chosen at 19 and can help set expectations (seemingly half hit or miss), I’ll note that it’s unlikely the Blues would’ve taken the same player at the same spot. Maybe some of the time but it’s also useful to look at what all other players went in the handful of picks after 19. As it would be this grouping of players the team selecting at 19 would’ve been weighing against each other.

Here’s the 19th pick along with some quality players picked not too far behind pick 19. I’ll also include Blues picks in that range even if they didn’t turn out well (looking at you Jordan Schmaltz):

2005:
Pick 19: Jakub Kindl
Other options: Tuukka Rask (21), TJ Oshie (24), Andrew Cogliano (25)

2006:
Pick 19: Mark Mitera
Other options: Claude Giroux (22), Patrik Berglund (25), Nick Foligno (28)

2007:
Pick 19: Logan MacMillan
Other options: Max Pacioretty (22), Mikael Backlund (24), David Perron (26)

2008:
Pick 19: Luca Sbisa
Other options: Michael Del Zotto (20), Jordan Eberle (22), John Carlson (27), Jacob Markstrom (32)

2009:
Pick 19: Chris Kreider
Other options: Marcus Johansson (24), Kyle Palmeiri (26), Ryan O’Reilly (33)

2010:
Pick 19: Nick Bjugstad
Other options: Evgeny Kuznetsov (26), Charlie Coyle (28), Brock Nelson (30)

2011:
Pick 19: Oscar Klefbom
Other options: Connor Murphy (20), Philip Danault (26), Vladislav Namestnikov (27), Richard Rakell (30)

2012:
Pick 19: Andrei Vaselevski
Other options: Scott Laughton (20), Jordan Schmaltz (25), Brady Skjei (28), Tanner Pearson (30)

2013:
Pick 19: Kerby Rychel
Other options: Anthony Mantha (20), Andre Burakovaky (23), Shea Theodore (26), Ryan Hartman (30)

2014:
Pick 19: Tony DeAngelo
Other options: Nick Schmaltz (20), Robby Fabbri (21), Jared McCann (24), David Pastrnak (25), Adrian Kempe (29)

2015:
Pick 19: Evgeny Svechnikov
Other options: Joel Eriksson-Ek (20), Brock Boeser (23), Travis Konecny (24), Anthony Beauvillier (28), Sebastian Aho (35)

2016:
Pick 19: Kieffer Bellows
Other options: Tage Thompson (26), Brett Howden (27), Trent Frederic (29), Jordan Kyrou (35)

2017:
Pick 19: Josh Norris
Other options: Robert Thomas (20), Jake Oettinger (26), Morgan Frost (27), Henri Jokiharju (29), Eeli Tolvanen (30), Klim Kostin (31), Nick Hague (34), Jason Robertson (39)

2018:
Pick 19: Jay O’Brien
Other options: K’Andre Miller (22), Dominik Bokk (25), Rasmus Sandin (29), Joe Veleno (30)

2019:
Pick 19: Lassi Thomson
Other options: Connor McMichael (25), Shane Pinto (32), Arthur Kaliyev (33)

2020:
Pick 19: Braden Schneider
Other options: Connor Zary (24), Jake Neighbours (26), Ridley Greig (28), JJ Peterka (34)

2021:
Pick 19: Fedor Svechkov
Other options: Jesper Wallstedt (20), Wyatt Johnson (23), Zach Dean (30), Olen Zellweger (34)

2022:
Pick 19: Liam Ohgren
Other options: Ivan Miroshnichenko (20), Jimmy Snuggerud (23), Danila Yurov (24), Sam Rinzel (25), Jiri Kulich (28), Isaac Howard (31)

2023:
Pick 19: Oliver Moore
Other options: Oliver Bonk (22), Gabe Perreault (23), Tanner Molendyk (24), Otto Stenberg (25), Quintin Musty (26), Calum Ritchie (27), Easton Cowen (28), Theo Lindstein (29), Bradly Nadeau (30), David Edstrom (32)

2024:
Pick 19: Trevor Connelly
Other options: Cole Eiserman (20), Michael Hage (21), Yegor Surin (22), Stian Solberg (23), Cole Beaudoin (24), Liam Greentree (26), Marek Vanacker (27)


What I learned doing this exercise:

•pick 19 is hit or miss but there’s always going to be some quality players available at 19. You just have to find them.

•the hit rate from around pick 16 to pick 30 isn’t much different. This checks out as whenever you look at a draft pick success rate graph or pick value chart, it really flattens out in the back half of the 1st.

•a lot of teams picking at 19 would’ve been better off just picking whoever the Blues picked a few picks later (Oshie, Berglund, Perron, Thompson, Thomas and Neighbours). There’s 2 busts in there, Schmaltz and Bokk…3 if you want to count Kostin. But given the hit rate in this range is around 50%, the Blues have historically hit way over that. And a lot of the guys have been high impact players, not just a 4th line replacement level player.

•thinking back to what I recall being the scouting reports on a lot if these guys that ended up making it, most of them had 1-2 standout features but often 1 really big weakness that made them fall to this range. It seems to me that taking a chance on a guy with 1-2 really good defining characteristics, even if they have a potentially fatal flaw, is better than taking the safe option in this range as those guys tend to have a hard time defining themselves. A lot of the guys that made it were able to mitigate that flaw enough for their 1-2 standout characteristics to shine through. The main weakness most seemed to overcome is skating ability, followed closely by being undersized.

•not all drafts are equal. Some of the years I had to only list 3-4 of the success stories as I didn’t want the list to get too long while other years I had to really stretch on who I considered a “success”.

•I added more names for years 2022, 2023, and 2024 as those are the prospects I think have a good chance of being impact players in that range…but all the drafts before then show at least a few are likely to not make it.

[hockey jedi]

Interesting read and analyses

[Hockey Pete]

What should Blues expect when looking at 19th overall picks of the cap era

The Blues are selecting 19th overall in the 2025 draft, so we're taking a look at players taken there in prior drafts and seeing how their careers have panned out.

By Joe DeMarini
June 16, 2025

The NHL Draft is just a few weeks away, and the St. Louis Blues hold the 19th overall pick. To get an idea about what kinds of players get picked in that range, we're looking at players selected 19th since the start of the cap era--that's 2005 to last summer. It's an interesting mix of players that turned out to be stars, journeymen, and total busts that never played a single NHL game. Let's get into it.

https://bleedinblue.com/what-should-blu ... jxwsqq67v2

I'd love to know the most important metrics used by the staff to make their case for their player in this mid range.

Speed, stick, body, stats, mind, drive, ability, character and what intangible do you look for most to find that diamond?

They seem to value compete, hockey sense and raw talent in the first couple of rounds, even if that prospect is missing a component (size / skating / etc).

Agree. And we don’t really have to guess. Army has been asked this question multiple times over the years and the first 2 phrases out of his mouth are usually hockey sense and compete level.

And I agree with valuing those 2 things the most. Obviously raw skill is important too. But a smart player that also works hard will usually get you far. They’re the ones that will fight for every inch. And not just on the ice but in their development as well. They’ll see what they need to improve to make it and put the work in.

Completely agree with both of you with regards to Army' drafting philosophy (which I really like, outside of the brain farts like Bokk).

The poster child for your second point is Neighbours... Probably was a 2nd rounder on most (if not all but the Blues) teams draft boards, but probably the most competitive player in that entire draft. Add to that his Hockey IQ and willingness to play hard in all three zones, and you have yourself a hockey player who's willing to spend the summer in St. Louis to transform his body and learn hockey.

There were other kids on the board that had higher ceilings, but none had a higher floor, and Army realized that...