Nolan Arenado Reality

[Dazepster]

If we are honest with ourselves:

Offensively he is assuredly in decline and long past his salad days.

It started in 23. While his homer total was still respectable his Combined Homer/Double totals were well off his career pace and average. And have continued to trend further downward.

33 years old with a lot of wear on him. Can still play a solid to really good 3B but the bat is nearing inadequacy for that position. Sure maybe you can get by, if had power sources elsewhere, yet the money sink is crippling in any event.

If I can see that, I am sure every other GM can see that.

Only way we move him is if we take on the bulk of his remaining salary commitments. And I don't see a Creme De La Creme prospect(s) coming back under any scenario.

We are stuck between a rock and a hard place.

Not sure what I would do myself if the Cards. Play out the contract rather than eat the bulk while he enjoys himself elsewhere. Yeah, IDK. I make him wear a FredBird costume if I have to.

[imadangman]

It started in 23. While his homer total was still respectable his Combined Homer/Double totals were well off his career pace and average.

The funny part of that, at the time of the trade deadline his OPS was closer to 2022 numbers. Then he tailed off hard.

[Wattage]

If we are honest with ourselves:

Offensively he is assuredly in decline and long past his salad days.

It started in 23. While his homer total was still respectable his Combined Homer/Double totals were well off his career pace and average. And have continued to trend further downward.

33 years old with a lot of wear on him. Can still play a solid to really good 3B but the bat is nearing inadequacy for that position. Sure maybe you can get by, if had power sources elsewhere, yet the money sink is crippling in any event.

If I can see that, I am sure every other GM can see that.

Only way we move him is if we take on the bulk of his remaining salary commitments. And I don't see a Creme De La Creme prospect(s) coming back under any scenario.

We are stuck between a rock and a hard place.

Not sure what I would do myself if the Cards. Play out the contract rather than eat the bulk while he enjoys himself elsewhere. Yeah, IDK. I make him wear a FredBird costume if I have to.

.850 ops pre allstar break 2023
.663 ops post allstar break 2023

[IndCard75]

Probably best case scenario the Yankees, because they are probably only team in contention that can afford to pay him what his contract is for that production, gets involved in trade talks with us.
We would probably have to give them Helsley Maton Fedde with Arenado to get Yankees to take him and the contract. Then hope Arenado accepts it.

[Ike Hammett]

The reality of Nolan Arenado as a Cardinal is this fanbase is nuts. Arenado has been a good Cardinal. According to baseball reference he has a WAR of 17.8 with the club in 4+ seasons. If you take the standard of $7 to $10 million for 1 WAR as a free agent, along with including the Rockies picking up some of that tab and his pay going down the next 2 seasons he is okay being an average to slightly above league average hitter 100- 110 ops+ with an above average glove. Hopefully he can squeeze out another 6-7 WAR in his last 2+ years.

He is a good deal when you take into account he really made the team the true contender everyone wanted a few years back when he was putting up MVP caliber numbers. Sad how so many loons took that for granted and still whine about those teams "not trying" and the club being cheap. Nado is great, you all suck and spoiled.

[Jatalk]

The reality of Nolan Arenado as a Cardinal is this fanbase is nuts. Arenado has been a good Cardinal. According to baseball reference he has a WAR of 17.8 with the club in 4+ seasons. If you take the standard of $7 to $10 million for 1 WAR as a free agent, along with including the Rockies picking up some of that tab and his pay going down the next 2 seasons he is okay being an average to slightly above league average hitter 100- 110 ops+ with an above average glove. Hopefully he can squeeze out another 6-7 WAR in his last 2+ years.

He is a good deal when you take into account he really made the team the true contender everyone wanted a few years back when he was putting up MVP caliber numbers. Sad how so many loons took that for granted and still whine about those teams "not trying" and the club being cheap. Nado is great, you all suck and spoiled.

So you are saying, right now, today he is worth what he is being paid?


So you are saying he is a good fit for a team making a move toward youth in a rebuild?


So you are saying it is best for him at his age to play for a team that cannot win a championship?

[Dazepster]

It started in 23. While his homer total was still respectable his Combined Homer/Double totals were well off his career pace and average.

The funny part of that, at the time of the trade deadline his OPS was closer to 2022 numbers. Then he tailed off hard.

Sudden and significant.

[cardstatman]

$146.6M in value delivered by Arenado so far. Still climbing.

Cards paid Arenado ~$159M for the whole acquired contract, more like ~$145M in value after discounting some long term deferrals he accepted.

I have no complaints about Arenado. He was a win now move for 2021-2024 as a pair with Goldschmidt. It is not shocking that he's fading in the last few years of his contract. I hope he bounces back a bit though; if he falls below average, it will hurt.

I think a few more days off could help. He's not young anymore.

With a surplus of infielders, I'd be happy to trade him now, but I kind of doubt it will happen.

[Melville]

If we are honest with ourselves:

Offensively he is assuredly in decline and long past his salad days.

It started in 23. While his homer total was still respectable his Combined Homer/Double totals were well off his career pace and average. And have continued to trend further downward.

33 years old with a lot of wear on him. Can still play a solid to really good 3B but the bat is nearing inadequacy for that position. Sure maybe you can get by, if had power sources elsewhere, yet the money sink is crippling in any event.

If I can see that, I am sure every other GM can see that.

Only way we move him is if we take on the bulk of his remaining salary commitments. And I don't see a Creme De La Creme prospect(s) coming back under any scenario.

We are stuck between a rock and a hard place.

Not sure what I would do myself if the Cards. Play out the contract rather than eat the bulk while he enjoys himself elsewhere. Yeah, IDK. I make him wear a FredBird costume if I have to.

N/A is eminently tradable.
He is on track for something like 18 HR, 75 RBI, 70 runs scored.
His defense is the best it has been in 3 years.
Is that the same N/A as his prime?
Not even close.
Is he important to the team's future?
Not one bit.
But, at 15.5M average salary over the next, final 2 years of his contract, he is not overpaid.
At the deadline, N/A will be owed about 7.5M for the balance of this season.
If DeWitt is willing to gag on the money to cover the 2025 balance, trading N/A (again) should not be at all difficult - and he would even bring a modest return.
And, if he again threatens to not report, simply tell him he will back up Gorman at 3B.
Trading him is easily accomplished.

[Stlcardsblues]

Probably best case scenario the Yankees, because they are probably only team in contention that can afford to pay him what his contract is for that production, gets involved in trade talks with us.
We would probably have to give them Helsley Maton Fedde with Arenado to get Yankees to take him and the contract. Then hope Arenado accepts it.

I would not do that. Helsley, Fedde and Maton bring far more value in separate trades. There is no reason to be that desperate to move Arenado.

[blackinkbiz]

The reality of Nolan Arenado as a Cardinal is this fanbase is nuts. Arenado has been a good Cardinal. According to baseball reference he has a WAR of 17.8 with the club in 4+ seasons. If you take the standard of $7 to $10 million for 1 WAR as a free agent, along with including the Rockies picking up some of that tab and his pay going down the next 2 seasons he is okay being an average to slightly above league average hitter 100- 110 ops+ with an above average glove. Hopefully he can squeeze out another 6-7 WAR in his last 2+ years.

He is a good deal when you take into account he really made the team the true contender everyone wanted a few years back when he was putting up MVP caliber numbers. Sad how so many loons took that for granted and still whine about those teams "not trying" and the club being cheap. Nado is great, you all suck and spoiled.

You live in a reality so delusional and disturbing I fear for children on your street.

[mattmitchl44]

The reality of Nolan Arenado as a Cardinal is this fanbase is nuts. Arenado has been a good Cardinal. According to baseball reference he has a WAR of 17.8 with the club in 4+ seasons. If you take the standard of $7 to $10 million for 1 WAR as a free agent, along with including the Rockies picking up some of that tab and his pay going down the next 2 seasons he is okay being an average to slightly above league average hitter 100- 110 ops+ with an above average glove. Hopefully he can squeeze out another 6-7 WAR in his last 2+ years.

He is a good deal when you take into account he really made the team the true contender everyone wanted a few years back when he was putting up MVP caliber numbers. Sad how so many loons took that for granted and still whine about those teams "not trying" and the club being cheap. Nado is great, you all suck and spoiled.

And it would have still been better for the Cardinals to have found a way to trade him and Goldschmidt for prospects back at the trading deadline in 2023 when they were on their way to limping to a 71-91 record.

[2ninr]

Probably best case scenario the Yankees, because they are probably only team in contention that can afford to pay him what his contract is for that production, gets involved in trade talks with us.
We would probably have to give them Helsley Maton Fedde with Arenado to get Yankees to take him and the contract. Then hope Arenado accepts it.

In theory that's one way to move him-as a throw in. But you have to get something back in that scenario.

[3dender]

$146.6M in value delivered by Arenado so far. Still climbing.

Cards paid Arenado ~$159M for the whole acquired contract, more like ~$145M in value after discounting some long term deferrals he accepted.

I have no complaints about Arenado. He was a win now move for 2021-2024 as a pair with Goldschmidt. It is not shocking that he's fading in the last few years of his contract. I hope he bounces back a bit though; if he falls below average, it will hurt.

I think a few more days off could help. He's not young anymore.

With a surplus of infielders, I'd be happy to trade him now, but I kind of doubt it will happen.

+1

Finding a team that will take his salary that he'll also allow a trade to will be quite a needle to thread. I have to imagine the Cards would eat some salary in order to gain the positional flexibility for their youth, but even that's only a marginally bigger needle.

OTOH I've been more impressed with Arenado's attitude this year as he has to accept his inevitable decline. I wouldn't have thought him capable of that level of maturity/humility before now.

There's a world where he remakes his plate approach over this offseason to become a high average singles hitter, to increase his value over the last two years of his contract. There's even a coach on the staff who made a modest career out of that offensive profile and should be able to guide him.

[3dender]

The reality of Nolan Arenado as a Cardinal is this fanbase is nuts. Arenado has been a good Cardinal. According to baseball reference he has a WAR of 17.8 with the club in 4+ seasons. If you take the standard of $7 to $10 million for 1 WAR as a free agent, along with including the Rockies picking up some of that tab and his pay going down the next 2 seasons he is okay being an average to slightly above league average hitter 100- 110 ops+ with an above average glove. Hopefully he can squeeze out another 6-7 WAR in his last 2+ years.

He is a good deal when you take into account he really made the team the true contender everyone wanted a few years back when he was putting up MVP caliber numbers. Sad how so many loons took that for granted and still whine about those teams "not trying" and the club being cheap. Nado is great, you all suck and spoiled.

And it would have still been better for the Cardinals to have found a way to trade him and Goldschmidt for prospects back at the trading deadline in 2023 when they were on their way to limping to a 71-91 record.

The last two years have proven you way ahead of the curve on this one. If they had gone that route and done it well they could be in 1st place right now, or at worst at about the same record but with a much brighter future.

[3dender]

Probably best case scenario the Yankees, because they are probably only team in contention that can afford to pay him what his contract is for that production, gets involved in trade talks with us.
We would probably have to give them Helsley Maton Fedde with Arenado to get Yankees to take him and the contract. Then hope Arenado accepts it.

In theory that's one way to move him-as a throw in. But you have to get something back in that scenario.

It would be much better just to eat as much salary as they want. The main gain for the Cards in moving him is totally independent of any return: the positional flexibility.