Frank Barone wrote: ↑05 Jun 2025 14:04 pm
This data seems questionable and probably doesn't validate anything.
I’m really gritting my teeth on this tbh. I used to work in data analytics. This sort of analysis is right up my alley. Marrying my line of work with my favorite sport! Fantastic. Or at least it should be.
But this is garbage work. It makes me mad someone like Dom can not only make a living doing this cr@p but is considered one of the industry leaders. If I had a data analyst show me something this flawed, I’d make sure they got a ton of coaching and would make sure their work absolutely never got presented to the board or exec suite without a very thorough review first. Work like this that looks good but is actually garbage is dangerous as some people will buy it. Sorry, I’m probably being too negative about it but Dom and especially the pompous way he responds to fans questioning his work p!$$es me off both personally and professionally. There’s much better advanced stats guys out there but of course the Athletic is going to pretty much always use their in-house guy.
Blues offseason needs: How St. Louis measures up to NHL’s conference finalists
By Jeremy Rutherford
June 5, 2025 7:00 am CDT
- clip -
So with that, let’s use Dom Luszczyszyn’s Net Rating model to compare the state of the Blues’ roster to the average roster of the NHL’s four conference finalists: Florida, Edmonton, Dallas and Carolina.
The Net Rating model has a long track record of demonstrating predictive value, and even though it’s imperfect, there’s some reliability in how it can put into perspective which individual players are contributing to the team’s success from an offensive and defensive standpoint.
We will project the Blues’ lineup for the 2025-26 season — excluding unrestricted free agents Radek Faksa and Ryan Suter — and contrast it with one combining the ratings for the Panthers, Oilers, Stars and Hurricanes for an “average conference finalist” team.
Sure, it’s a bit skewed when you consider Edmonton has two all-world players in Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl. But in order to compete, the Blues will need to add similar stars or get more out of their talent.
I dont think that is exactly necessary to compete for a Cup and how is Paraykos rating so low hes one of the top RHD in the NHL
I didn’t bother clicking on the article but there’s no way JR’s smart enough to come up with this stuff on his own so I can guarantee you he’s getting the data from Dom Luszczyszyn - the Athletic’s fancy stat guy. But Dom is a moron. I’m actually a proponent of fancy stats but Dom simply trusts his model over the eye test way too much. I’m not even sure he actually even watches hockey. Every year he’ll put out a list of what his model says is the best and worst contracts in the NHL and for at least 2-3 years now he’s had Parayko as one of the worst 2-3 contracts in the game, saying Parayko is really more like a $1-2M player. Only an incredibly overconfident, cocky moron would see results like that and think to himself “I need to publish this and bash Parayko because my model reveals he’s truly a 3rd pairing replacement level player” and not, “holy cr@p! Clearly my model isn’t accounting for all of the value a player can provide and I should investigate that and tweak my model before publishing the results so I don’t look like a moron.” But nope, Dom’s been posting garbage for years and then pompously proclaiming it as gospel. His model isn’t bad at all when it comes to offensive minded forwards but clearly he has it way too skewed to valuing some offensive values so defensive forwards and in particular defensive d-men get way undervalued in his model. Last I saw, he had Evan Bouchard rated as pretty much the best d-man in the history of the game.
TL;DR: Dom’s a moron so I didn’t even bother reading this article.
His model definitely isn't the end all, be all - and it is grossly skewed towards offensive players. That said, I think more of my problem with it is how the Athletic must force every writer to only use Dom's model - it's not so much Dom that I find arrogant, as much as the entire publication pushing his model as the standard.
That said, it does "validate" two of the most common complaints that have been voiced here, which I find interesting:
1. Faulk is the weak link in our Top 4 D.
2. Joseph/Sundqvist are anchors in our Top 9.
How does this validate that Faulk is a weak link when he is rated above Fowler?
This data seems questionable and probably doesn't validate anything.
They must have used Fowler's unimpressive stats from the Ducks.
Otherwise... its horseshite.
a smell of green grass wrote: ↑05 Jun 2025 15:17 pm
And here I thought Kyrou was really bad on Defense (and the stats show that), but he was twice as good as Thomas.
Thomas is definitely the team's "cherry picker", the guy that only goes north, no south.
Buddy, you are dredging really low on this one.
RT had the toughest matchups.
You are more folksy and therefore more palatable than the other Trolls with their unsupported eliteisms, but its getting old, SOGG
a smell of green grass wrote: ↑05 Jun 2025 15:17 pm
And here I thought Kyrou was really bad on Defense (and the stats show that), but he was twice as good as Thomas.
Thomas is definitely the team's "cherry picker", the guy that only goes north, no south.
Buddy, you are dredging really low on this one.
RT had the toughest matchups.
You are more folksy and therefore more palatable than the other Trolls with their unsupported eliteisms, but its getting old, SOGG
Did Thomas see tougher matchups than the #1 Forward on Edmonton and the other playoff teams? While I agree that the stats are not nearly complete, there are some 1:1 comparisons that can be made.
a smell of green grass wrote: ↑05 Jun 2025 15:17 pm
And here I thought Kyrou was really bad on Defense (and the stats show that), but he was twice as good as Thomas.
Thomas is definitely the team's "cherry picker", the guy that only goes north, no south.
And this right here is why cr@p analysis can be dangerous. It gives disingenuous people ammo to regurgitate the cr@p.
Also, it’s very very hard for a center to cherry pick. They’re hardly ever the first forward out of the zone, Thomas included.
a smell of green grass wrote: ↑05 Jun 2025 15:17 pm
And here I thought Kyrou was really bad on Defense (and the stats show that), but he was twice as good as Thomas.
Thomas is definitely the team's "cherry picker", the guy that only goes north, no south.
And this right here is why cr@p analysis can be dangerous. It gives disingenuous people ammo to regurgitate the cr@p.
Also, it’s very very hard for a center to cherry pick. They’re hardly ever the first forward out of the zone, Thomas included.
MN...thank you for your usual calm and clarity.
A "Cherry-picking Center".... do they make it out of Juniors?
a smell of green grass wrote: ↑05 Jun 2025 15:17 pm
And here I thought Kyrou was really bad on Defense (and the stats show that), but he was twice as good as Thomas.
Thomas is definitely the team's "cherry picker", the guy that only goes north, no south.
And this right here is why cr@p analysis can be dangerous. It gives disingenuous people ammo to regurgitate the cr@p.
Also, it’s very very hard for a center to cherry pick. They’re hardly ever the first forward out of the zone, Thomas included.
I wish that everyone on BluesTalk would get an offense and defense rating. THEN, everyone would see that ASOGG is a humble hockey man that helps the forum along by facilitating conversation. He is the happy messenger, but the fact-seekers just don't like the facts.
Are we to presume that STL fan in MN has no idea why Thomas's score would be so low? Is that why he writes about me, and not Thomas? Did the computer make some kind of mistake?
a smell of green grass wrote: ↑05 Jun 2025 15:17 pm
And here I thought Kyrou was really bad on Defense (and the stats show that), but he was twice as good as Thomas.
Thomas is definitely the team's "cherry picker", the guy that only goes north, no south.
And this right here is why cr@p analysis can be dangerous. It gives disingenuous people ammo to regurgitate the cr@p.
Also, it’s very very hard for a center to cherry pick. They’re hardly ever the first forward out of the zone, Thomas included.
MN...thank you for your usual calm and clarity.
A "Cherry-picking Center".... do they make it out of Juniors?
Per our wonderful, magnificent and uber-GM, Army, our best players are not consistent. He said that they take nights off. He said that they we have changed everything except our longest-term players (eg Thomas), and things aren't changing.
Let's ask Army if these stats reveal the same problem that made him blow a gasket in early February.
a smell of green grass wrote: ↑05 Jun 2025 15:17 pm
And here I thought Kyrou was really bad on Defense (and the stats show that), but he was twice as good as Thomas.
Thomas is definitely the team's "cherry picker", the guy that only goes north, no south.
And this right here is why cr@p analysis can be dangerous. It gives disingenuous people ammo to regurgitate the cr@p.
Also, it’s very very hard for a center to cherry pick. They’re hardly ever the first forward out of the zone, Thomas included.
I wish that everyone on BluesTalk would get an offense and defense rating. THEN, everyone would see that ASOGG is a humble hockey man that helps the forum along by facilitating conversation. He is the happy messenger, but the fact-seekers just don't like the facts.
Are we to presume that STL fan in MN has no idea why Thomas's score would be so low? Is that why he writes about me, and not Thomas? Did the computer make some kind of mistake?
You sound like the Unfrozen Caveman Hockey Man. “I am but a simple hockey man. Your world frightens and confuses me…”
But yes, I’m saying Dom’s data is cr@p. Garbage in = garbage out. He doesn’t reveal what’s in his black box that spits out player ratings but it’s obvious to me that it’s quite lacking. Looking at his data in the past, my guess is one thing he doesn’t factor in well is quality of competition.
So did the computer make a mistake? No. But I’m saying it’s (bleep) obvious Dom is giving the computer cr@p data and it’s leading to obviously cr@p results.
a smell of green grass wrote: ↑05 Jun 2025 15:17 pm
And here I thought Kyrou was really bad on Defense (and the stats show that), but he was twice as good as Thomas.
Thomas is definitely the team's "cherry picker", the guy that only goes north, no south.
And this right here is why cr@p analysis can be dangerous. It gives disingenuous people ammo to regurgitate the cr@p.
Also, it’s very very hard for a center to cherry pick. They’re hardly ever the first forward out of the zone, Thomas included.
I wish that everyone on BluesTalk would get an offense and defense rating. THEN, everyone would see that ASOGG is a humble hockey man that helps the forum along by facilitating conversation. He is the happy messenger, but the fact-seekers just don't like the facts.
Are we to presume that STL fan in MN has no idea why Thomas's score would be so low? Is that why he writes about me, and not Thomas? Did the computer make some kind of mistake?
You sound like the Unfrozen Caveman Hockey Man. “I am but a simple hockey man. Your world frightens and confuses me…”
But yes, I’m saying Dom’s data is cr@p. Garbage in = garbage out. He doesn’t reveal what’s in his black box that spits out player ratings but it’s obvious to me that it’s quite lacking. Looking at his data in the past, my guess is one thing he doesn’t factor in well is quality of competition.
So did the computer make a mistake? No. But I’m saying it’s (drat) obvious Dom is giving the computer cr@p data and it’s leading to obviously cr@p results.
Hmmm. The results look spot on for most of the players.
I think that I am going to believe Army on this one.
Per our wonderful, magnificent and uber-GM, Army, our best players are not consistent. He said that they take nights off. He said that they we have changed everything except our longest-term players (eg Thomas), and things aren't changing.
Let's ask Army if these stats reveal the same problem that made him blow a gasket in early February.
a smell of green grass wrote: ↑05 Jun 2025 15:17 pm
And here I thought Kyrou was really bad on Defense (and the stats show that), but he was twice as good as Thomas.
Thomas is definitely the team's "cherry picker", the guy that only goes north, no south.
And this right here is why cr@p analysis can be dangerous. It gives disingenuous people ammo to regurgitate the cr@p.
Also, it’s very very hard for a center to cherry pick. They’re hardly ever the first forward out of the zone, Thomas included.
I wish that everyone on BluesTalk would get an offense and defense rating. THEN, everyone would see that ASOGG is a humble hockey man that helps the forum along by facilitating conversation. He is the happy messenger, but the fact-seekers just don't like the facts.
Are we to presume that STL fan in MN has no idea why Thomas's score would be so low? Is that why he writes about me, and not Thomas? Did the computer make some kind of mistake?
That you can’t understand MN’s points and that you don’t understand at the most basic level how a computer works is alarming even by the low bar you set.
Overlooking that responding at all casts me as an idiot, I would posit that Thomas compares very favorably with Aho, Duchene, and Reinhart and not so well with Draisaitl and McDavid (not sure who's considered #1 there).
