Utah looking for a young top 6 winger for their 4th OA

[netboy65]

If it was 2 years ago, I do it without hesitation.

Now? On a player who likely won't contribute for 2 years if not 3? Not interested for Kyrou.

The Blues aren't in rebuild mode anymore. Burning 3 more years of Parayko, Thomas, Binnington, Schenn, Neighbours, etc etc just doesn't make any sense.

We need to add established players, not subtract and then wait.

When (whoever the drafted center would be) would be a contributor we could potentially have a defense that is significantly changed, an aging goaltender, or major issues with our wingers.

Would I love to have a #4 overall who is working his way to possibly take on a #1 center role? Oh hell yes, but I wanted him 2 years ago. Now giving up what it would cost and how much it would potentially set us back? I don't think so.

Finally! A voice in the wilderness.

[skilles]

You have to also consider the cap space gained so its likely not just Kyrou out and nothing in for 2 or 3 years.

[netboy65]

You have to also consider the cap space gained so its likely not just Kyrou out and nothing in for 2 or 3 years.

And what are you doing with that new found space?

[DawgDad]

If it was 2 years ago, I do it without hesitation.

Now? On a player who likely won't contribute for 2 years if not 3? Not interested for Kyrou.

The Blues aren't in rebuild mode anymore. Burning 3 more years of Parayko, Thomas, Binnington, Schenn, Neighbours, etc etc just doesn't make any sense.

We need to add established players, not subtract and then wait.

When (whoever the drafted center would be) would be a contributor we could potentially have a defense that is significantly changed, an aging goaltender, or major issues with our wingers.

Would I love to have a #4 overall who is working his way to possibly take on a #1 center role? Oh hell yes, but I wanted him 2 years ago. Now giving up what it would cost and how much it would potentially set us back? I don't think so.

Finally! A voice in the wilderness.

Really? This probably represents the views of most of us around this forum. There are long threads about what the Blues need to do next, and I haven't seen what I would term a notable contingent calling for a sell-off to land a top pick. A lone wolf or two, yes.

[TheJackBurton]

You have to also consider the cap space gained so its likely not just Kyrou out and nothing in for 2 or 3 years.

But that's where it gets tricky. Yes you are getting rid of 8 million, but how much will it cost to replace .9 ppg player including 30+ goals?

If it costs more than 8 million then you really haven't done much of anything. Looking at the RW UFA's the top 2 are Marner and Brock Boeser.

Marner isn't our radar as we haven't remotely been named as a team he's interested in, and Boeser is coming off a 50 point campaign where he made 6.5 so he's going to command more.

Trading him without replacing him for the same or less doesn't do us any good.

[STL fan in MN]

You have to also consider the cap space gained so its likely not just Kyrou out and nothing in for 2 or 3 years.

But that's where it gets tricky. Yes you are getting rid of 8 million, but how much will it cost to replace .9 ppg player including 30+ goals?

If it costs more than 8 million then you really haven't done much of anything. Looking at the RW UFA's the top 2 are Marner and Brock Boeser.

Marner isn't our radar as we haven't remotely been named as a team he's interested in, and Boeser is coming off a 50 point campaign where he made 6.5 so he's going to command more.

Trading him without replacing him for the same or less doesn't do us any good.

The other caveat is that any trade involving the 4th overall would need to take place on or before June 27th. The Blues wouldn’t be able to even go after Brock Boeser until July 1.

But maybe there could be a corresponding trade to replace Kyrou’s production…but that sounds like potentially just shuffling deck chairs for the heck of it.

[seattleblue]

It's true that there's risk involved in competing for a championship in professional sports.

[TheJackBurton]

You have to also consider the cap space gained so its likely not just Kyrou out and nothing in for 2 or 3 years.

But that's where it gets tricky. Yes you are getting rid of 8 million, but how much will it cost to replace .9 ppg player including 30+ goals?

If it costs more than 8 million then you really haven't done much of anything. Looking at the RW UFA's the top 2 are Marner and Brock Boeser.

Marner isn't our radar as we haven't remotely been named as a team he's interested in, and Boeser is coming off a 50 point campaign where he made 6.5 so he's going to command more.

Trading him without replacing him for the same or less doesn't do us any good.

The other caveat is that any trade involving the 4th overall would need to take place on or before June 27th. The Blues wouldn’t be able to even go after Brock Boeser until July 1.

But maybe there could be a corresponding trade to replace Kyrou’s production…but that sounds like potentially just shuffling deck chairs for the heck of it.

as well as the odds of pulling off one trade to immediately replace said player in another trade have to be extremely low.

Can they trade for another RWer? Sure, but odds are he isn't as good as Kyrou.

[netboy65]

If it was 2 years ago, I do it without hesitation.

Now? On a player who likely won't contribute for 2 years if not 3? Not interested for Kyrou.

The Blues aren't in rebuild mode anymore. Burning 3 more years of Parayko, Thomas, Binnington, Schenn, Neighbours, etc etc just doesn't make any sense.

We need to add established players, not subtract and then wait.

When (whoever the drafted center would be) would be a contributor we could potentially have a defense that is significantly changed, an aging goaltender, or major issues with our wingers.

Would I love to have a #4 overall who is working his way to possibly take on a #1 center role? Oh hell yes, but I wanted him 2 years ago. Now giving up what it would cost and how much it would potentially set us back? I don't think so.

Finally! A voice in the wilderness.

Really? This probably represents the views of most of us around this forum. There are long threads about what the Blues need to do next, and I haven't seen what I would term a notable contingent calling for a sell-off to land a top pick. A lone wolf or two, yes.

Have you scrolled through this thread? There are several calling for this very thing.

[dhsux]

Just for grins wondering if some of the draft gurus could tell me where JK would go on a re draft today?

I'm sure it's not #4 right? .......but the supposition of all this chatter that he can bring this strikes me as rather odd.

Since he's a proven commodity....I get the enhanced value.

Just by chance I also get the same. Proven commodity.

Kyrou is currently 9th in pts among 2016 draftees behind Matthews, M.Tkachuk, Debrincat, Keller, Bratt, Laine, Dubois and Fox. In a re-draft, I’d put all of those guys ahead of Kyrou. Laine is debatable as he’s fallen off and is a pretty flawed player but he shot his career out of a cannon and those good years still count. Then there’s Tage Thompson right behind Kyrou in pts. But he has more goals so I’d take TT. Then there’s 4 d-men I’d rank ahead of Kyrou today - Sergashev, McAvoy, Chychrun and Hronek. So I’d place 14th in a 2016 re-draft. TBH, going into this exercise, I expected him to end up somewhere in the 5-10 range but the 2016 draft was better than I remember it.

However, where a player would fall in a theoretical re-draft doesn’t necessarily mean their value in terms of being assets would be in the same order. Let’s say Player A is better but has 1 year left on his deal and then he’s going to want to cash in huge whereas Player B isn’t quite as good but is signed for 6 more years at an AAV that’s fair today and looks like it’ll be a steal more and more each year the cap increases. Player A is better but Player B is worth more as an asset.

So given Kyrou’s contract and zero trade protection (for a few more weeks anyway) he’d be worth quite a bit as an asset. Would he be worth the 4th overall? Idk. Hinestly, I can’t think of a single trade where a top-5 pick was traded straight up for an established player. The closest I can recall is 12 years ago VAN traded Cory Schneider to NJ for the 9th overall (which they used to draft Horvat). I personally would think Bill Armstrong would want more but idk. There’s really no precedent for such a trade.

Thank you Minnesota. Just what I was asking about. (A bit surprised to see Chychrun that high on your list)

Would you agree the risk here is greater for the Blues than Utah?

I might personally value Kyrou higher than Chychrun, especially if their contracts are taken into account but Chychrun did just put up 47 pts as the Caps #1 d-man this season. In a re-draft, I’m ignoring contracts.

But yes, in a theoretical Kyrou for the 4th trade, the Blues would be taking on more risk. Quite a bit of it actually. The main risk is obvious - that the pick potentially busts. But other risks would be potentially disrupting the contention window. We’d be trading a 27 yr old for an 18 yr old that likely won’t be helping us for 2-3 years. Army declared the re-whatever over (which in and of itself tells me he wouldn’t do this deal) but let’s say he did do the deal, trading Kyrou would leave a big hole. We can say stuff like “Bolduc and Snuggy will just make up Kyrou’s goals” but that’s much easier said than done. It’d be a huge risk to trade the guy that’s led the team in goals each of the last 3 years and was top-5 in the entire league at 5 on 5 goals this season. Kyrou was garbage in the playoffs but I still contend folks don’t appreciate what he brings enough (and he was likely injured in the playoffs). He’s a flawed player but not exactly easily replaceable.

Other risks would be stuff like disrupting team chemistry (maybe Holloway struggles w/o Kyrou?). Another risk could be alienating some of the players. They feel they’re building to being a contender and then you trade away the team’s leading goal scorer?? I bet that’d make some of the guys in the room mad.

So why would the Blues ever consider to take on all of these risks? Because the kid picked at 4th would have a high likelihood of being better than Kyrou eventually. But it’s not a guarantee and the “eventually” part doesn’t really line up with the contention window they seem to be aiming for. So I doubt the Blues would consider something like this unless the really really wanted to get rid of Kyrou before his NTC kicked in for some reason.

Great points.

Thanks

[skilles]

You have to also consider the cap space gained so its likely not just Kyrou out and nothing in for 2 or 3 years.

And what are you doing with that new found space?

Well I don't know who would be able to sign in STL or who is available but it is still a significant asset that should be considered.

[netboy65]

You have to also consider the cap space gained so its likely not just Kyrou out and nothing in for 2 or 3 years.

And what are you doing with that new found space?

Well I don't know who would be able to sign in STL or who is available but it is still a significant asset that should be considered.

My point was you’d spend what you’d save just trying to replace the production, and like you said, there’s no guarantee that guy or guys are even available

[skilles]

You have to also consider the cap space gained so its likely not just Kyrou out and nothing in for 2 or 3 years.

And what are you doing with that new found space?

Well I don't know who would be able to sign in STL or who is available but it is still a significant asset that should be considered.

My point was you’d spend what you’d save just trying to replace the production, and like you said, there’s no guarantee that guy or guys are even available

Nope, definitely no guarantees of anything.

[dhsux]

101 had an interesting chat today about the Blues offense.

They ranked 13th last season at 250 goals scored.

They then added up what/who is likely to be better this coming year and it was all done within reason. Nothing crazy.

Some included Bolduc around 20-25, Jake hitting 25 over last years 20, I think Holloway hitting 30, Parayko going down 5 and a new forward addition hitting 15-20.

Anyway it got them to 280 which was a goal or so under the Caps last year at #2 and 10 under last year #1 Lightning at 290.

Yes it's just an exercise and yes sheeet can go wrong but still I found it pleasantly revealing how close this team might be to achieving a very good offense.

[netboy65]

101 had an interesting chat today about the Blues offense.

They ranked 13th last season at 250 goals scored.

They then added up what/who is likely to be better this coming year and it was all done within reason. Nothing crazy.

Some included Bolduc around 20-25, Jake hitting 25 over last years 20, I think Holloway hitting 30, Parayko going down 5 and a new forward addition hitting 15-20.

Anyway it got them to 280 which was a goal or so under the Caps last year at #2 and 10 under last year #1 Lightning at 290.

Yes it's just an exercise and yes sheeet can go wrong but still I found it pleasantly revealing how close this team might be to achieving a very good offense.

Here’s hoping!
I think 20 is a reasonable average for Jake, if he gives you any more than that, it’s gravy.

[zamadoo]

You have to also consider the cap space gained so its likely not just Kyrou out and nothing in for 2 or 3 years.

And what are you doing with that new found space?

Well I don't know who would be able to sign in STL or who is available but it is still a significant asset that should be considered.

My point was you’d spend what you’d save just trying to replace the production, and like you said, there’s no guarantee that guy or guys are even available

You've presented good points here, and along with MN's well worded posts just above, it really paints a strong picture for why this will likely and probably should not happen.

My only argument is more looking long-term and tying into previous discussions - you've got a glut of wingers coming up that are projected in the top-9. The only current available spot is 2/3C. As soon as next season someone will need to be moved.

Could we move Buch to Utah for #4OA? Please, if so, let it be. However, I think we would be out-bit and/or Utah asks for Kyrou instead.

My thought is you get max return for Kyrou now while you can move him (which actually could be for more than just the #4OA), and avoid the issue of having to move a Bolduc/Neighbours/Snugg/Stenberg/Pekarcik/Kaskimaki/Stancl/etc down the road.

The main risk is if the lightning caught in the bottle at the end of this past season was more than just that and this team is poised for serious SC contention this upcoming season, which you and MN pointed out very well, but that I am not sure is actually the case. We need more info on the locker room dynamics/etc to know for sure, and ultimately Army does know and will likely make the right decision here (assuming Utah even wants Kyrou/Buch/etc).